A MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY IS NEAR

THE U.S. IS TRYING TO DELAY IT BY LURING IRAN INTO SECRET TALKS AND PROMISES

THE U.S. SABRE RATTLING AGAINST IRAQ IS ONLY THAT AND IS MEANT TO KEEP IRAN PREOCCUPIED AWAY FROM CENTRAL ASIA

To delay an Iranian-Iraqi defense treaty the U.S. has been engaging Iranian moderates (and hardliners, some say) in secret talks. SPC can only speculate that the American party to these talks is providing Iran with assurances: that an American invasion of Iraq will respect Iranian interests in that country. That, in essence, would mean that the American-sponsored Iraqi government would include substantial Shia representation. Too, the U.S. party is probably providing assurances that the United States will not use its control of the new Iraq to lower oil prices. But the tactic of secret talks without more can only delay a mutual defense treaty, not stop it. The Iranians are awakening to the hidden purpose of the talks. In the meanwhile, Iran is mobilizing its public, as we are. (SPC suspects that the Iranians are better at it than we.) Recently, on or about May 16, the Iranian President (a moderate) described the U.S. as the most distinguished face of evil/terror.

American assurances notwithstanding, the Iranians don't believe that an American-sponsored government in Iraq will not result in American control of worldwide oil prices. Concomitantly, Iran will lose all hope of regaining its regional power status, which status already has been undermined by the U.S. military presence in the region.

What do the Iranian hardliners expect in secret talks with the United States? For one, they probably are trying to rob the Iranian moderates of their monopoly of the American relationship. For another, they are drawing the line clear to the United States as to what Iran can't put up with.

The Iranians know that an American attack on Iraq could result in a Sunni assault on the Shia of Iraq, if Iran colludes with the United States. Cold-blooded massacres would turn the American invasion into an Iraqi Sunni-Shia civil war. A few massacres against Shia, and counter-massacres against Sunnis, should coalesce all Sunnis in support of the Saddam Hussein regime. These massacres would almost certainly result in an Iranian invasion of Iraq, from the south. The American and Iranian invasions are certain to bring about Arab Sunni outrage and assistance. The Arabs, having recently re-discovered their nationalism, thanks to Jenin, could react violently against their governments.

The news of secret meetings between Iranian and American officials are making the Iraqis nervous. After all, Iran and the United States are engaged in competition in the Caspian Sea basin. Accordingly, Iraqi officials fear that the Iranians would make a deal with the Americans: Iran would hope to obtain concessions in that basin, in exchange for sitting out an American invasion of Iraq.

But it is unlikely that any compromise would be reached about the Caspian Sea basin. The matter is far too complex for such a compromise, since the United States hasn't yet become too comfortable in that region, and Iran would hardly be able to offer anything of value. At any rate, Iran cannot afford to be so heavily engaged on two fronts: the Middle East and Central Asia. It possibly perceives the United States' sabre rattling against Iraq as a means to keep it preoccupied away from Central Asia. Why not play along, then, and patch up relations with the Iraqi regime, to buttress the Middle Eastern regional anti-American coalition? To assuage the Iraqi regime's nervousness, Iran might have to sign a mutual defense treaty with it, and offer it troops to help it defend itself against an American invasion.

Such a treaty would isolate Iran no further. It is, after all, a member of the axis of evil, and is the subject of an American weapons' embargo. Additionally, such a treaty would allow Iran and Iraq to check increasing Turkish influence in northern Iraq. Turkey, to further its interests, is said to have been organizing the ethnic Turkish minority in that region.

America's continued arms and commercial embargo against Iran is part of the dual containment policy against both Iraq an Iran. This embargo assures continued Iranian mistrust of the United States. A mutual defense treaty with Iraq would send the clearest message to Washington that it will not be allowed any more control over the supplies and price of oil. For the near future, the new alliance would not be directed at Saudi Arabia.

But the new alliance can wreck havoc to America's policy in Kurdistan. Iran can interject itself in Kurdish politics in northern Iraq, bringing Turkey closer to outright military intervention. That would disturb the most important launch-pad to the increasingly theoretical (and unlikely) invasion of Iraq. To mobilize its people and Arabs against the United States, Iran has made accusations that the U.S. is sponsoring another Israel in northern Iraq--an independent country for an exclusive ethnic-religious group, the Kurds.

Iran also can disturb the commercial and social peace of affluent Qatar, where Al Udeid is located, the air base the United States plans to use in its invasion of Iraq.

The mutual defense treaty would have another important benefit. Iran should be concerned with an American nuclear retaliation against Iraq for its use of chemical and biological weapons if the U.S. invades. Even a minimal nuclear response would threaten the health and safety of Iran's population. Regaining the confidence of the Iraqi regime would assure it that Iran would defend it, and thus avoid a desperate Iraqi use of chemical and biological weapons and an American nuclear retaliation. In short, Iran would hope to avoid an ecological disaster.

Closer relations between Iran and Iraq have been evolving, slowly. For one, in late January of this year, Iran announced that it would be running regular civilian flights between Tehran and Damascus, flying over Iraqi territory. (Currently, Iran runs flights between Tehran and Baghdad.) Iran also released over 600 Iraqi prisoners of war. Iraq, in turn, released 48 Iranian POWS. The two countries had also signed a understanding for cooperation in educational, cultural, and artistic fields. Could these be the confidence-building steps on the way to a mutual defense treaty?