SAUDI ARABIA AND THE MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY: A SECOND LOOK

In the short term, an Iranian-Iraqi mutual defense treaty would benefit Saudi Arabia. It would diminish the possibility that its ally, the United States, would control oil prices, by controlling Iraq. In other words, America's failure to control Iraq would benefit the Saudis, since they would remain in relative control of world oil prices. Not to mention that this treaty would lessen the possibility of an American invasion of Iraq--a nightmare for the Saudi leadership. Domestically, all bets would be off if the Saudi public sees an American invasion of a neighboring Arab country.

But these benefits are temporary. The United States or Iran could raise the tension, and Iran might decide to expand its unconventional methods into the Kingdom. Or the Israelis could delay their withdrawal from the West Bank, Gaza, east Jerusalem, and the Golan, defeating Abdallah's new path of Arab nationalism. That defeat could diminish Abdallah's ability to absorb domestic dissatisfaction; with that, the way could once again be open for Iran to wage its unconventional warfare inside the Kingdom.