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Sunday, September 01, 2002

AN OVERBEARING UNITED STATES PRESSURES A NERVOUS SAUDI ARABIA

HAS THE UNITED STATES TAKEN OVER SAUDI FOREIGN POLICY?

Coordination with the United States is unavoidable for the Kingdom, since it needs the U.S. to balance Iranian power in the Gulf. Historically,  the Americans would err when they'd hope that the Kingdom's need could translate into a united front of pro-American governments that would include the Israeli.  Not under Sharon, and not while Israel occupies even an inch of pre-1967 Arab territory.  Post-September 11 Arab politics place yet more constraints on the freedom of movement in foreign policy for the Kingdom; and these constraints could spread to other countries. 

The Saudi public's anger with U.S. support of Israel's occupation and repression, Iranian money and recruitment, and Syria's openness toward Iran (to regain its Golan Heights), should assure that Saudi foreign policy could not align itself fully with the American-Israeli. 

But the current coordination among intelligence services--to create Arab government-like repressive agencies to quell the Intifafha--points in a new direction.  It reveals the possibility that the United States has successfully forced the Saudis' hand--that, in fact, the United States has taken over Saudi foreign policy. 

The mechanics of the take-over could include a quid-pro-quo:  Saudi relative submission on the Israel/Palestine front for an American let up on Iraq;  moreover, these mechanics would have to include the Saudi concern that American foreign policy bureaucrats can, relatively easily, ignite an anti-Saudi campaign in the United States.  Call it blackmail; but we seem to be there.  What a difference a couple of months makes--since the appearance of SPC's first issue.  Suddenly, Crown Prince Abdallah is less visible, and one pro-Iranian source is waging a mis-information campaign about him.