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Sunday, September 01, 2002

POSSIBLE IRAQI STRATEGY

Iraq will try the Arab solidarity route.  Should that route not produce results, Iraq will have no choice but to turn to Iran.  Should an American invasion materialize, and the Iraqi government feel threatened, it will open the door wide to Iran to come in.  The Iraqi leadership will bring Shia commanders of the armed forces into prominence and give them the keys to the house. 

Should Iran prove reluctant to accept the invitation, the Iraqi Republican Guard and Special Forces will unleash against the Shias and a civil war will erupt, forcing Iran into the fray, and throwing to the wind American warnings against Iranian intervention.  Iran can do it a la Syrian model in Lebanon: dress its troops in various local militia uniforms, use each and every local difference in Iraq, create fictitious political and armed groups to execute Iranian policies.  In the end it'll establish itself as the main power broker in Iraqi politics, a la Syria-Lebanon model. 

The war against Iraq, and the threat to Iran, should strengthen the position of the anti-American militants in that country.

Turkey will be forced to come in from the north, allegedly to protect the Turkmen minority in Iraq--and quell (as viciously as can be imagined) the Kurdish de facto state in the north.  American troops in Saudi Arabia will become an integral part of the kingdom's life, since Iran would've become a more formidable rival, having laid its hands on yet more oil resources.

Egyptian troops could be expected in the kingdom to quell popular uprisings.