U.S. PRESSURES SAUDIS: REIN IN THE PALESTINIAN FIGHTERS AND WE WILL CALL OFF OUR UNCERTAIN INVASION OF IRAQ!

HAS THE UNITED STATES TAKEN OVER SAUDI FOREIGN POLICY??

Here's the American deal:  Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt and Jordan, will intervene to rein in the Palestinian fighters.  Why?  Because if they don't, the United States will fire up even harder its dis-and misinformation campaign of psychological warfare on Arab Iraq.  The United States will promise an imminent invasion of Iraq, now dear to the mobilized Arab public (mainly because of the American threats to its unity), leaving these governments, especially the Saudi, to deal with their public's wrath.  Preparation is underway for the intelligence services of these three countries to work under U.S. leadership to build new security agencies for the occupied Palestinian territories, without even a hint of a promise of an Israeli withdrawal.  There's even talk about importing Palestine Liberation Army troops from Jordan, who would be willing to suppress the Intifadha--an unlikely prospect.

But Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wanted to be heard. Having no affection towards the Saudis (See below), he sent in a jet fighter into Gaza to assassinate a Palestinian Islamist leader.  Nine dead children later, and five to six adults, left the budding American-Saudi effort in shambles.  Prime Minister Sharon, after all, is the best thing that's happened to Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Aqsa Brigade.  A de Gaulle-like Israeli Prime Minister, who would order withdrawal from all the occupied territories, is too much to ask for in the Middle East.

Editor's Note:  To assess the mood of the Arab public,  SPC relies on editorials, letters, poetry and prose in Arabic newspapers.  SPC is aware that most if not all of these newspapers are financed by countries.  With that in mind, SPC does its best to ferret out truth from fiction.

Saudi Arabia seems to have chosen a course that both pleases its American ally (contain Iran) while perhaps helping Iraq.    So recently, Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader of the Kurdistani Nationalist Union of northern Iraq, a Sunni, visited the Kingdom, accompanied by a delegation.  SPC speculates that the reason for his visit falls into the Saudi attempt to keep the Iraqi house as Sunni as possible.   Talabani is allied to Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, the leader of the Higher Council for the Islamic Revolution of Iraq, a Shia armed opposition group based in Iran, and supported by that country.  That alliance necessarily expands Iran's influence in northern Iraq.  The Saudis probably placed pressure on Talabani to break his alliance to the pro-Iranian Shia Baqir Hakim, to rob Iran of increased influence in Iraq.  Superficially, this Saudi scheme runs counter to the American, which wants to include al-Hakim in a united Iraqi opposition front.  But at a deeper level, it doesn't, as the chances of the Iranian-supported Baqir al-Hakim coordinating with Sunni leaders, and vice-versa, are nearly nonexistent.  Iraq can break up any such coordination by increasing tension with Iran.

In fact, the Saudi Sunni approach to the Iraqi dilemma resonated in an Iraqi-initiated increase of tension with Iran.  Iraqi gunships are said to have fired on Iranian fishing vessels.  Additionally, Uday Hussayn leveled accusations and threats against Iran for its alleged territorial ambitions inside Iraq.  Too, Iraq announced the break-up of an Iranian terror group.

Tension with Iran, for now, is useful as it keeps the Sunni troops of the Republican Guards--and the Sunnis in general--mobilized.  It has the further advantage of revealing Iranians eventual goals (supremacy in the Gulf) and thus should cause the Saudis some worry.

EDITOR'S NOTE:  Iran announced that it is expecting hundreds of thousands of tourists from the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia.  What a terrific opportunity for recruitment for the next round of Iranian-sponsored unconventional warfare in the Gulf!

So Saudi Arabia became nervous in early July, when Israel Radio reported that Crown Prince Abdallah had sent Prime Minister Sharon a message via American intermediaries.  If true, that would indicate that American influence over the Kingdom's foreign policy has in fact increased markedly.  It also means that the Saudi leadership is now dealing with the enemy--Likud.  Disinformation or not, the Kingdom couldn't afford to be seen as negotiating with the oppressor of the Palestinian Arabs. Hence the retort by Saud al-Faysal, the Kingdom's Foreign Minister.  In Washington in the latter part of July, he told reporters that Sharon would lead the region to tragedy and conflict.