THE COMING CIVIL WARS?

Iran wants a democratic Iraq. Lest SPC's readers think SPC's analysis is balance of power speculation, here are some supportive declarations. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Chairman of the Council for the Determination of the Interest of the [Government] System, and a former President, made it clear in October that Iran is opposed to a military government in Iraq. General Rahim Safwi, the General Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, noted in October that prudence dictated staying out of America's way, lest Iran became a target. But, ominously, he warned: Iran would not allow the dwarfing of its role and that of its Iraqi allies in the new Iraq.

How is one to balance Iran's declared "positive neutrality" and cooperation with the United States with its insistence on democracy in Iraq?

On a practical level, Iran would stay out of the way of an American invasion, and would work with the United States in the new Iraq. If the United States fails to give the Shiites their due role, Faylaq Badr (The Badr Brigade--made up of Iraqi Shiites armed by Iran and based in that country) and many well-armed Shiite clans in the south and north of Iraq stand at the ready to ignite a civil war.

That civil war could spread to the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. That province's population is mostly Shiite. Armed civil strife could further spread to other Gulf Emirates, which have sizeable Shiite communities. Saudi Arabia and these Emirates now rely on direct American protection.