THE COMING MARGINALIZATION OF ISRAEL

The marginalization of the Kingdom in American foreign policy is due in large part to the establishment by the United States of bases in that region, in countries other than Saudi Arabia. Iran is the only country that can create costly trouble for the United States--by allowing civil wars to ignite and through unconventional warfare against American troops. Accordingly, from now on, Islamist Iran will become increasingly important to our foreign policy, even crucial. An Islamist Iran, without an Arab power to balance Iranian power, (e.g., Iraq), will continue the course it has taken to balance the only military power left: Israel (and, to a lesser extent, Turkey.) It will take a radical change in Iranian domestic politics for that country to sell out the Palestinians and its co-religionists in Lebanon. From that standpoint, the United States will have to accommodate the Islamic Republic lest it risks the safety of U.S. troops in the Gulf, and the surge of intractable civil wars and terror all over the region.

In contrast to Islamic and relatively stable Iran, Israel, standing at the opposite pole in the regional balance of power, is not Islamic, even anti, and is rocked by a civil war. It is unable to make the historic decisions--to withdraw from the occupied territories occupied in 1967 (unless it is paid handsomely by the United States, and even then, not a full withdrawal). Too, Israel has failed to work out a partnership with the Palestinians, by hampering their attempt at gaining client status with the United States (Note the campaign against Arafat, the architect of the client relationship with Washington). In contrast, Iran made the historic decision when it stopped the war with Iraq.

In short: the Iranian era in U.S. foreign policy is witnessing a rebirth, and the Israeli era is witnessing a concomitant decline.