AMERICA'S STRATEGY: APPLY PRESSURE FOR A SUNNI COUP

(TO AVOID ARAB SUNNI UPRISINGS AGAINST CLIENT GOVERNMENTS--WITNESS MA'AN IN JORDAN.)

The United States's strategy, for now, is to have troops ready in Kuwait and other countries nearby. Their mission: to move in as soon as Iraqi Sunni officers stage the long-hoped-for coup. Or, to effect incursions into Iraq in such a way as to instigate a coup. The U.S. will then provide support for the new junta--weapons and logistics. It will also show enough force to deter Iran from invading Iraq should Iran be displeased with the new regime. (This would be a dangerous game, as the Shiites in the south could take advantage of these incursions, and act independently of Tehran, igniting a civil war at a time not of Tehran's chosing. The responsibility for quelling that war, or managing it, would then fall onto American troops.)

Why not an outright invasion? What's going on in Jordan (mid-November, 2002) is an early look at what might occur should American-generated tension not subside. Following the assassination of an USAID employee, tension increased between Islamists and government. The latter moved against the town of Ma'an, to arrest prominent Islamist rebels. The town in response staged what amounted to an armed uprising. This armed rebellion reflected in good part the rage of the Arab Sunni world. This world feels under attack and encircled by the United States, Israel, Turkey, and Iran. Too, the Arab Sunni world sees its governments as incompetent and treasonous. The continued and ongoing colonization of Palestine, and the American psychological and other warfare staged against Sunni rule in Iraq, are fanning the flames of revolt.