AN IRANIAN CONSENSUS IS EVOLVING: GO AFTER THE U.S. BASES, AND KEEP THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR RAGING

The United States' buildup and its goals had once confused the Islamic Republic.  Slowly, however, a consensus is evolving within Iran about U.S. goals and Iran's interests.

Though still disgusted with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the Iranians are now leaning in the direction of adopting the adage, "Better the devil you know."  After all, an American-inspired coup would bring someone to power who doesn't need them, and would turn Iraq into an American threat to the stability of the Islamic republic.

In contrast, Saddam Hussein's government is weak and helpless, and needs Iran for any protection it can provide it  against the United States.

Superficially, Iran is still coordinating among some of the Iraqi opposition groups, especially the Shiites and the Iraqi Kurds abutting the Iranian-Iraqi border.  The U.S. could never replace Iran as protector of the Shiites, and the Kurds could never ignore the havoc Iran could sow within their ranks.  The United States has all but given up on the Iraqi opposition, after it came to the realization the Iran could have more sway on them than it could.

Besides drawing closer to Syria, there's evidence that Iran's opposition to America's military presence in the region will take the form of mobilization of the local population against the American military bases. The Sunni public already is mobilized against what it sees as the American-Israeli assault against Arabs and Moslems, in Palestine and Iraq.  The same public is now describing America's presence as colonialism.

Iran can feed this mobilization with money.  Already, as liberal America pushes for democracy in the Gulf countries--more as an imperial tool to subdue these countries than a serious effort--groups are sprouting (especially in Bahrain and Qatar) which are demanding the furtherance of their civil rights.  These groups should become target for financing by the Iranians in their campaign against the American bases.  For instance, in the second half of November, a group of 300 scientists, including Saudis, issued a statement condemning the United States for its use of force and its Crusader-like assault on the countries of the region.