NUCLEAR IRAN

Iran could not win a conventional war against the United States.  It is therefore reluctant to be drawn into such a war.    More importantly, Iran wants to assure the launch of its nuclear industry before the United States becomes comfortable in the region and attack Iran's nuclear sites.  
 
In late December, 2001, Iran signed an agreement with Russia to hasten the construction of the nuclear reactor at Boushahr, in the south-western part of the country.  This agreement requires Russia to investigate the possibility of building yet another reactor.  The "speed up" clause is obviously meant to take advantage of American reluctance to attack the reactor, or to ask the Israelis to do it, while the United States is firming up its presence in the region.  In other words, the White House would need to show success in Iraq; an attack on Iran by the U.S. or Israel will hasten the process of Iranian active opposition to U.S. policy--and possibly the Iranian-induced eruption of a civil war in Iraq, making the American task significantly more difficult.

The United States is concerned about the Boushahr reactor and another Iran is planning to build with Russia's help.  It is also concerned about two other sites in the middle of the country where it suspects Iran is preparing to build nuclear warheads.  But it seems unlikely the United States can do much to slow down this process, unless it is willing to sponsor a region-wide demilitarization effort that would include Israel's nuclear warheads and other suspected Israeli weapons of mass destruction.  The American helplessness in facing Iran is made all the more acute by the American Administration's need to show success on Iraq. Accordingly, it is willing to compromise with the Islamic Republic.

Iran's military industry has set as its goal to balance Israeli power in the region.  Israel is known to possess hundreds of nuclear warheads.   Syria, it was reported in early January, is negotiating with Russia for the construction of its first nuclear reactor.  

Iran will encourage the linking of the Arab public's campaign against the U.S. bases to Israel's extensive arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.  Elements of this linkage are already in evidence.  For instance, as recently as January 26, 2003, the Iranian Secretary of the Higher Council for National Security,  Mr. Hasan Rouhani, asserted that all weapons of mass destruction should be eliminated.  He pointed to America's ally, "the Zionist entity," as possessing nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.  In Lebanon, around the same time, Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah of the Iranian-sponsored Hezballah, talked about the U.S. bases as an expression of America's intent on subjugating the region and controlling its oil resources.  (Fadlallah is not on good terms with the powers that be in Iran, who finance Hezballah; still, his statements could only be a reflection of some of the current thinking in Tehran.) 

In a clear message to the United States, Rouhani also noted that Iraq is within the "national security jurisdiction" of the Islamic Republic, sharing 1300 kilometer of common borders.