THE RATIONALE FOR THE AMERICAN BASES

This extensive military presence by the United States is meant not only to invade Iraq.  It is meant to balance Iranian power, now that Iraq is no longer able to do it.

While the United States in the 1980's had accepted that Iraq balance Iran's power, the U.S. nonetheless has always had reservations about that country's government.  The United States has felt that Iraq's Arab nationalism was a threat to the rest of the Gulf, and to Israel.  Moreover, the United States could not hope to domesticate the Iraqi government, which had historically used Europe and Russia as commercial and military partners, having deemed the United States too hostile, for its unwavering support of Israel.

But the extensive U.S. military presence is obviously an overkill, if meant only to balance Iranian power. The U.S. could after all erect a trip-wire meant for both countries not to cross.  U.S. strategists, however, have high hopes of taming Iraq, fully, and turning it into an American protectorate, a la Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries.  But the task is so mired in the possibility of bloodshed and further misery to civilians--high-tech weaponry notwithstanding--that the same strategists are still hoping to see a coup in Iraq, by pro-American officers, or self-exile by the Iraqi President and his entourage.  Egypt will most likely be the country of choice for Mr. Hussein, albeit having recently refused to see one of his emissaries.  (See below for the reasons why the United States is reluctant to invade Iraq.)

IRAN AND THE U.S. BASES

Iran will deal with the U.S. bases politically--for now--and not militarily.  

There are clear indications that the political opposition in the Gulf countries will turn the U.S. military presence and bases into its rallying cry.   While Iran will be reluctant to face the United States conventionally, it can nonetheless finance the Arab Sunni opposition to the bases in the Gulf countries--a rather inexpensive yet effective option.