A SAUDI MESSENGER VISITS BAGHDAD: DID HE RELAY AN AMERICAN MESSAGE? AND WHAT WAS IT?

In early January, the Saudi government dispatched a messenger to Baghdad.  Here's SPC's assessment:

The messenger carried an American message, not a Saudi.  And the message could very well have been more conciliatory that we are led to believe.  For one, the message probably  wasn't for the Iraqi President to leave Iraq, although such was likely an option.   Whatever it was, it was rejected by the Iraqis, which might explain Secretary Powell's volte face on war, as he has  become more vitriolic in his anti-Hussein rhetoric than the American Likudists. 

It is possible that Hussein's obstinacy is tied (foolishly for him) to his hopes based on promises that Iran will support him.    But it is also possible that the message back was a cold-blooded one: should America attack, the Iraqi government will make sure a civil war erupts. (See the outline in the first section of this e-newsletter: SPC ALERT: THE COMING MASSACRES OF CIVILIANS IN IRAQ.)

At any rate, SPC estimates that the Bush Administration is looking for a face-saving way out for itself.  Here's why the Bush Administration has reasons to be conciliatory:

-- It has failed to catalyze a coup in Iraq.

-- It has achieved a good part of its goal: the establishment of extensive military presence in the Gulf, Turkey, and East Africa, having used the Iraqi war skillfully to mobilize the American public for enough time to firm up U.S. military presence.  (Never mind that we Americans feel so much poorer now, and the tension of war has taken a toll on our well being.)

-- It has become all too acutely aware of the huge costs to the American economy now in deep recession of the invasion of Iraq, having failed to secure contributions from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Japan, and Germany.

--  It has become yet more sensitized to the human cost of the war, to Iraq, and what these costs would entail to its image in the world.  More importantly, it has come to realize that the death of Iraqi civilians will forever be used by the Arab opposition against the United States and the regimes it supports. 

Even the humiliation of Iraq's army in-and-by-itself will forever be used by the popular opposition.   And this opposition will now find it so much easier to link America's humiliation of Arabs to America's financing of the theft of Palestinian land.  And if the Iraqi army resists, it'll create an Arab epic, more powerful than Jenin's resistance to the overwhelming assault by the Israeli army.

 -- It has sensed yet more opposition from the American public.

-- It is now certain that its dialogue with the Iranians is shallow, and is meant by Iran to delay an American attack on Boushahr and suspected nuclear sites, and not as a genuine fear of U.S. power, or a true hatred of the Iraqi President and his government.

In SPC's view, the Saudis are playing a constructive role as brokers for peace.  (See the first issue of SPC for the reasons why Saudi Arabia dreads an American invasion of Iraq.)  The question now is whether the Saudis can find a creative face-saving way out for this Administration from the predicament it has created for itself.  If Hussein doesn't abide by American conditions, there will be bloodshed--and the challenge for the Saudis is to act fast to avoid the spilling of Arab blood by Saudi Arabia's closest ally.

Otherwise, Saudi Arabia continued its effort to rehabilitate Iraq.  In early January, Iraqis and Kuwaitis met in Amman to discuss the fate of missing Kuwaitis.  A Saudi delegation attended the meeting.

DOMESTICALLY. . .

Domestically, there were reports in early January issued by the Saudi opposition in London about forty al-Qaeda suspects in a Saudi prison, who have staged a hunger strike to protest their treatment.  Some were later released.

In its effort to consolidate its internal front, and to continue the course of improved relations with Iran, Saudi leaders turned to their country's Eastern Province.  Reports circulated that Saudi Arabia had in early December begun the release of dozens of Shiite political prisoners.  The Ministry of the Interior (Justice) is said to have commuted the sentences of around one hundred of these prisoners, seventeen among whom had been awaiting execution. 

The Crown Prince paid attention to the poor in the second part of November.  Abdallah visited some of the poorest neighborhoods in Riyadh to show his concern.  Sultan, at Defense, handed deeds for new homes, as part of a project dedicated to him.  He also inaugurated a military hospital in Dhahran, which is said to have cost the state $2.6 billion.

The attention paid to the poor was caused by the Crown Prince's genuine concern for their lot.  (Again, Abdallah has a stellar reputation.)  But it also smacks of good old political jockeying, to place Sultan and Nayif on the defensive. 

On the night of January 24-January 25, an armed clash pitted Saudi police with armed individuals who were said to belong to the opposition.  (Opposition sources call them Jihadiyyin--those who are fighting under the banner of Islam for Islamic Justice.)  No arrests were made.  While no one should expect a country to be free of opposition, armed at times, the incident nonetheless pointed out that the bin Laden people are around, and are armed.  Possibly, it also pointed out that the Saudi police can be quite ineffective.

At any rate, Abdallah and the royal family are in for a tough time: the U.S. military presence in the Gulf, while Israel is devastating Arab brothers in Palestine, has placed--and will continue to place--the Kingdom's leadership in a difficult spot.  Osama bin Laden, or his political heirs, will reap tons of legitimacy in opposing the U.S. bases.  Add to that the fact that their discourse is Islamic and egalitarian, and therefore quite moving in its power to mobilize.  Not to mention that money should be flowing to these groups from Iran, and from other countries which oppose U.S. bases.

SPC expects that each and every country that is threatened by America's expansion into the Gulf (and SPC is including Europe), will pass secret and untraceable money to groups opposing the U.S. bases.