SPC ALERT: THE COMING MASSACRES OF CIVILIANS IN IRAQ

If efforts to unseat the Iraqi President fail, expect the following:

As soon as the United States launches its uncertain war on Iraq, the powers that be in that country's government and secret services, and the Shiite Da'wa party in southern Iraq, should stage bloody massacres against civilians.  These massacres will see a civil war rage in Iraq, pitting Sunnis against Shiites, while the United States is conducting its fancy bombing from the skies.   So, in effect, two wars will be taking place, both uncivil.

Sensing that the massacres against the Iraqi Shiites are the work of the Sunni powers that be, Iran will be forced into the fray, to assist its co-religionists.   It'll ignore all the secret promises made to it by the United States to buy its neutrality in the American war.   It will send armed Iraqi Shiites from the Bader Brigade (currently stationed in Iran) into Iraq.  The civil war's tempo will then reach a higher level, and massacres against civilians will become the call of the day.

With Iran's help, the Shiites might very well gain the upper hand, and threaten to take over Baghdad, especially if Iraqi Sunni officers heed the American call to defect and join their foreign bank accounts.

Should the Kurds move south, they'll do it only with Iranian consent.  And they could very well join forces with the Shiites in the center of the country.  Meanwhile, the massacres by Kurds against Arab Sunnis, and vice versa, would also spread across the country.  The Christian minority will hide behind Sunni lines, and their sympathy would be with the once secular regime that gave them equal access to government and the economy.
 
Most likely, the United States will have to freeze its operations and support the Sunni regime.  Any other option would mean that the U.S. will have to accept partnership with Iran in Iraq, where Iran has the upper hand.   Unless, of course, the United States widens the war, by bombing Iran.