SYRIA, IRAN, AND IRAQ DRAW CLOSER

The Message: Please Let Us Return to a Sense of Normalcy.

American allies and foes have coalesced to try to appease the United States.  Turkey recently (mid-January) convened a conference of countries around Iraq.  The dominant feeling was that Iraq should cooperate with the United Nations.  These countries had different reasons for joining together.  But the common denominator was their quest for a return to normalcy--to focus on development and trade, not war and the misery it brings about.

Another coalition with more in common has also formed, a tad secret.  
 
The intelligence services of Iran, Syria, and Iraq seem to have coalesced, in defense of their interest against the United States and Israel.  In early December, 2001, an Iraqi hit squad visited the city of Tyre in Lebanon and assassinated an Iraqi opposition figure.  That squad left Lebanon by land, through Syria--an indication that Syria is currently coordinating with Iraq.

Syria's nervousness about the possibility that Iran will strike a deal with the United States has caused Iran to draw closer to Syria, as assurance. Both countries are now pursuing similar policies: a visible policy of dialogue with the United States; and a not-so-visible one of limited support to Iraq in its resistance to the American assault.  

The United States is doing similarly: it is pursuing its establishment of bases, while sending Iran repeated messages that it doesn't intend to attack it or its nuclear facilities.  It is also likely that the U.S. is promising trade concessions--anything to turn the Iraq project into a success for the Bush Administration.  The latest such message was brought to Iran by Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Kurdistan National Union.  The Qatari Foreign Minister did similarly.

In an effort to assure Syria of Iran's commitment to their alliance, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi visited Syria and Lebanon (currently under Syrian control) in the first half of December.  The visit could be seen as a message to Israel that a war against Lebanon's Hezballah will see Iran fully involved on the side of its co-religionists.  The Syrian President is expected in Tehran in February.