THE UNITED STATES AS UNWANTED BROKER IN ROYAL SECESSION; IT WANTS BANDAR BIN SULTAN AS CROWN PRINCE

The U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, in early July, was reported to have intervened in the politics of that country. It was claimed that he told some of his Saudi guests that the United States had decided to make Crown Prince Abdallah King, and to appoint someone to replace him as Crown Prince. The guests were reported to have been surprised--even offended--since royal succession–-as it stood-–assured that Abdallah would in fact become king, and would be followed by Sultan at Defense as the new Crown Prince.

But Ambassador Gordon was said to have asserted that the Crown Prince will be a relatively young person. It wasn’t clear whether Mr. Gordon was referring to the Saudi Ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Choosing him might avoid alienating his father, the current Crown-Prince-to-be, while securing the throne (once Abdallah passes away or is incapacitated) to a relatively young king. The Americans would hope that the U.S.-installed king would further the process of completing the American stewardship over the Kingdom.

If the reports about Ambassador Gordon's statements are correct, they would indicate the current thinking within the foreign policy establishment in the United States about Saudi royal secession. This thinking is not without merit. The aging of the Saudi rulers, and their division, weakens governmental rule, as it seems at times that Abdallah runs one government, and Sultan, Nayef, and Salman, run another--or even other governments. This diffusion of power is inefficient, and it pits centers of power against each other, resulting in the government's failure to respond well to crisis. But some division of power does have advantages: Abdallah provides the royal family with a connection to the modernists and reformers, while the others keep the bridges open with the clerics and the traditionalists. The roles at times are reversed.

Still, the royal family does seem to be in dire need for a broker, one who can generate and enforce agreements and consensus about government and royal succession. But, following the American assault on the Kingdom by the Likud-inspired enthusiasts at the Pentagon--about breaking up the Kingdom and subduing Arabs and Muslims with force--the United States can hardly play that neutral role. It is perceived by most Saudis as a dishonest and ungrateful broker. Even members of the royal family are still bewildered and seething from the affront laid at the Kingdom's door by the nouveaux republicains, and unchecked by the American President. These royals would've understood criticism for their true guilt: incompetence--not blamed for September 11, about which the American intelligence community was as incompetent as they.