WILL THE GOVERNMENT OVER-REACT? SUCH IS THE HOPE OF THE OPPOSITION

On balance, the government for now has not over-reacted. But the risk is eminently present that it could. It's unclear how many Shiites in the Eastern Province are Islah sympathizers. (The fact that the United States closed its consulate in Dhahran on November 7 is probably related to the war of assassinations between Iran/Syria and the United States/Israel--See SPC Alert-- and not to a concern for riots and demonstrations. ) The United States should be concerned that Iran might want to flex its muscles in the predominately-Shiite Eastern Province. At any rate, over-reaction in that province (e.g., the shooting of demonstrators) might result in a Shiite backlash which neither the government nor the local established leaders would be able to easily control. This would be more dangerous to the stability of the Kingdom than Islah-inspired demonstrations in the rest of the country.

In calling for public demonstrations, the opposition hopes to emulate the Iranian experience. Iranians had taken to the streets and had brought down the Shah's repressive and self-deluded American-installed government. For years now, wishfully perhaps, the Saudi opposition has warned of the chaos to come. But Saudi Arabia, geographically and demographically, is different from Iran. Taking over in one city might just be limited to that, and the government should be able to push back the opposition's control of that city, especially if it has the help of foreign troops. (See below) On a scale of probabilities, only in the Eastern Province could the "chaos" spill into widespread riots.