IRAN v. ENGLAND--and it's not about soccer!

Against my better judgement, I will be writing short commentaries that could be predictive.

Here's one: Iran has accused the United Kingdom of the recent explosions by Arab secessionists in the Ahwaz province in western Iran.

Hours earlier, Tony Blair had called on Iran and Syria to stop supporting terror. I guess the Ahwaz bombings were his way of indicating that the U.K. will go on the offensive.

The Ahwaz explosions caused the cancellation of a trip there by the Iranian President. There's also the possibility that Rafsanjani had returned to Tehran for an important meeting. (He cut short a three-day visit to the city of Mashhed.)

In the meanwhile, sensing a stronger tilt by the U.S. in favor of the Arab Sunnis, and an attempt to divide them between Arab nationalists and Jihadists, Iran is now hosting Muqtadha as-Sadr. I guess it's planning on a Shia insurgency, should the Arab Sunni quiet down. By now, Muqtadha's men should have gotten the training they badly needed.

What does it all mean? For now, I think Iran wants to teach the U.K. a lesson. The Islamic Republic sees the U.K. as the American enforcer in the Gulf--outside of Iraq.

The question is: Where will the Islamic Republic strike back? In the south of Iraq, where British troops are still operating? Problem: Muqtadha's men are not as good as the Arab Sunni warriors.

Can it hit inside England? Doubtful, since the Brits have now raised their defenses after the train bombings.

In Saudi Arabia? Have to be careful about offending the Kingdom. Too many mutual agreements.

In fact, the Islamic Republic has to be cautious about disturbing the peace of any of the American Arab protectorates in the Gulf, lest they dig in deeper with the U.S.

And remember: The Kingdom's oil wealth has silenced the opposition. And many of the Saudi al-Qaeda members are busy in Iraq.

Come on, think with me: Where will the Islamic Republic hit next? Against Britain, that is, since the British intelligence services are now enjoying a good old colonial action revival--in Iran.

Southern Iraq seems to be the best place to hit back at the U.K. Or maybe Yemen. Any British tourists there? Or some place like Kenya?

The Islamic Republic can heighten the tension by hitting against British citizens in the Gulf countries. There are plenty of those.

The coming few days will show us how creative the Islamic Republic is.

(I know I'm letting you down; but I'll sleep on it and maybe by tomorrow morning I'll have a better idea where the Iranians have the least limitations, and where the Brits are most exposed.)

One question: Can the Brits really afford a secret war with Iran? I doubt that it's a war they can handle or win. Or one that scares the Islamic Republic. (The state has the money--April 2005 to March 2006: $45 billion in oil income.)

In the meanwhile: Have you noticed that we're still losing a fair number of troops (and helicopters) in the new liberal demcratic state of Iraq? But the press seems to act as if we're winning? Did G.W.'s offensive about staying the course in Iraq and victory put a lid on calls to withdraw?

Frankly, I think our troops in Iraq are still sitting ducks. I've tried repeatedly to see a scenario where they're not. Couldn't.