FRANCE'S FORCE DE FRAPPE IN SAUDI ARABIA ?

Second Draft.

WILL FRANCE PROVIDE SAUDI ARABIA NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AGAINST IRAN?

AND

WILL FRANCE SOON BE CELEBRATING THE RISE OF A PRO-FRENCH WING WITHIN THE FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT OF SAUDI ARABIA?


BACKGROUND


Articles in SaudiPolitics (the latest: “Micro Strategies and the Security of Saudi Arabia” --Tuesday, February 7, 2006) have discussed the floating of the idea of a gargantuan defense contract between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Britain. The contract would cost $70 billion.

SaudiPolitics has speculated that the $70 billion contract will include the United States as the major beneficiary. It would go through British defense contractors to avoid a public outcry in the Kingdom. The United States, after all, is probably one of the least popular countries there, especially after it had dismantled an Arab country. Britain is more acceptable (maybe–there are really not that many choices) since its role in Iraq has been quite limited–though this is far from being a sure thing. Many months earlier, on or about July 27, 2005, on his way to Singapore, in answer to a reporter's question, Tony Blair referred to the Kingdom’s government as “regime.” Perhaps he was angry about the infiltration into Iraq of Saudi Sunnis rushing to assist their brethren against the imperial armies.

He in effect was blackmailing the Kingdom. Was that before oil prices soared and he, once again, needed the Kingdom’s money? It looks like it.

Actual contracts: one with Britain for $10 billion and one with the United States for $2 billion.

France was not mentioned, neither in the $70 billion floated idea nor in the actual two contracts.

President Jacques Chirac recently has sent two letters, separate, to Saudi King Abdullah. These were hand-delivered on or about February 11, 2006. In addition, the French President will visit Saudi Arabia in March.

What will his visit be about?



FIRST SCENARIO:

FRANCE IS SEEKING KING ABDULLAH’S INTERVENTION TO INCLUDE IT IN ON THE $70 BILLION DEFENSE CONTRACT

President Chirac will ask the Saudi King to factor France into the arms contracts with the Kingdom. France opposed the invasion of Iraq, he would tell him. But in no way had it intended to stand in opposition to the Kingdom which had eased that invasion. Maybe, in retrospect, France was right, since the invasion has hardly made any country in the region more secure.

We do know one thing: Soaring oil prices after the invasion of Iraq made the Kingdom safer–not U.S. troops. In the long run, unless Iran or al-Qaeda make a big terror splash that would so mobilize the U.S. public as to dispatch more troops, Iran is on the winning streak, not the U.S. and not Britain. If anything, the Iraqi invasion made smaller Gulf countries with large Shia minorities less safe, since the Iraqi Arab Shias, now powerful and in control of Iraqi state institutions, could lend a voice (and a hand) to their Arab brethren within Gulf countries. It’s a matter of time.

France’s long-term problem has been that the Saudi foreign policy establishment probably has lacked a pro-French wing. We know that this establishment has a huge pro-American wing (See SPC’s earlier article, “Side-Stepping King Abdullah,”) and probably a decent-size pro-British. (The “wings”’ stand to make a lot of money on defense contracts in kickbacks--hidden contingency fees.) The U.S. and Britain, along with their “wings” within the Saudi foreign policy establishment, would not want to share the bounty with any other country, including France.

And that could explain France’s recent tilt towards Hamas, siding with Saudi Arabia (the non-American and non-British wings) and Russia. France is now possibly regretting the trust it had placed in the U.S. and Britain: That, if it sided with them all the way, they would give it a slice of the Saudi defense contracts. They’re haven’t.

France probably made the mistake earlier (and deeper) when it quit its role as the Western “bridge-to-the-Third World,” including the Arab, by siding all the way with the alliance of the United States and Britain. Even the U.S. should appreciate the role of France as a bridge to the Arab public. But the Bush people’s world view (“Either you’re with us or against us”) hardly gives them the ability to act intricately. And there’s a price to pay for a non-intricate world view. For instance, when France quit its historic role as bridge via-a-vis the Arab public, it opened the door wide for Russia to replace it. And China shouldn’t be far behind.

In short, the U.S.-U.K. alliance is on a losing course in Iraq, though winning defense contracts in Saudi Arabia. France wants a share of these contracts. It had weakened its position to obtain these contracts when it quit its role as bridge. No longer. Hence its corrective tilt in favor of world acceptance of Hamas. In effect, France is reverting to its traditional role, having discovered that the U.S. and Britain will not give it a share of Saudi defense contracts. President Chirac hopes King Abdullah will force France into the ranks of Saudi defense contract grabbers.

Would Saudi Arabia ignore France? Of course not. For one, Saudi Arabia probably has asked France to once again step on its pro-Arab foot more actively–to regain its role as a Western bridge to the Arab public, and should compensate it (and its Saudi-Lebanese--Hariri--wing) with a share of its defense contracts. Why? There’s a dire need for a European country to balance the truly awesome popularity the Islamic Republic. The hope would be that an “Arab France” would sway this public in a reasonable direction. (Arab governments have very limited sway over their own public–the Arab street--while Islamic Iran knows how to push each and every buttom to keep the Arab Street in awe of it.) . (See the earlier article “The Arab Street Marches Forward.”) The Kingdom should benefit from an “Arab France,” as should the United States and Britain


SECOND (AND COMPLEMENTARY?) SCENARIO:

PRESIDENT CHIRAC WILL INAUGURATE A HARIRI-FRENCH WING WITHIN THE SAUDI FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT.


WILL THE KINGDOM HAVE A FRENCH NUCLEAR FORCE DE FRAPPE ON ITS SOIL OR IN ITS WATERS?

In fact, France may already have changed course in coordination with the Kingdom.

It has tilted towards Hamas, as had the Kingdom; it has threatened to retaliate against Islamic Iran using nuclear weapons, a reflection of its willingness to join the contain-Iran choir, not an unpleasant occurrence to the Kingdom. (See earlier SPC article : “Iran to Saud al-Faisal: We Hear You Loud and Clear.”) And, possibly, it could have agreed to base nuclear weapons and delivery systems in the Kingdom, under French control, to provide it with a force de frappe to deter a nuclear Iran.

Earlier, France had drawn an association with the late Rafiq Hariri (and now with his son Saad.) The Hariris are Lebanon's Saudi connection, par excellence. (Prince Waleed bin Talal is the other. Equally par excellence. Sorry Prince Waleed; don't mean to place you second.) The French and the murdered Prime Minister worked together to force Syria out of Lebanon. Syria got out; not really; yes it did; no, it didn't. It doesn't matter, does it? By using the Lebanon connection, France found in the Hariris a key into the decision-making circles of Saudi Arabia. And who said Lebanon would not pay off for France?

France would thus have used its Hariri/Lebanon connection very skillfully to evolve a French wing within the Saudi foreign policy establishment, and break into the Saudi market for defense contracts.

President Chirac’s visit should (un-officially) inaugurate the launch of this wing. Expect a sizeable Saudi-French contract.