CIRCUMVENTING U.S. GENERALS.

DRAFT--THIRD

CIRCUMVENTING U.S. GENERALS; AND THE GASOLINE NOOSE AROUND IRAN’S NECK AND OURS.

INTRODUCTION: A POEM

Rescue me,
O darling protectorate
Bomb the Muslims
Make the Mullahs irate
That ivory-white Arkansas man
I will emulate
Who refused to get laid
Then awoke a black American
And to Africa his way made
I will wear a yarhmulke
And against that holiest of walls
Promise to rock my neck
And bang my wide forehead

18% VICE-PRESIDENT CHENEY TO ISRAEL


IS THIS PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE OR IS VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY TRYING TO CIRCUMVENT U.S. GENERALS, YET AGAIN?

The loudest sign of imperial desperation was Vice-President Cheney’s choice of forum for issuing yet another ultimatum to Iran. The forum: an AIPAC conference (American Israel Public Affairs Committee–the Israel lobby.)

Mr. Cheney had in the past threatened an Israeli (not an American) strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. His statements can be construed as part of Empire’s psychological campaign directed at the Islamic Republic. (See earlier article, “Hush, Hush, Spin, Spin...") But the choice of forum tells me something else. It indicates that the Vice President is truly and publicly seeking military help from the Israelis.

Is that unusual?

Yes. If in fact the United States needs military assistance from Israel, it would properly communicate that need discreetly and through military or diplomatic channels. To do it at the AIPAC conference smacks not only of domestic politick-ing, but also of near-begging by the Vice President. (John Bolton, U.S. Representative to the United Nations, also a neon-con, had given an equally anti-Iran speech to the same conference.)

Why would the Vice President be seeking Israel’s help?

My take on it is that U.S. commanders have refused to entertain the idea of bombing Iran at the present time. They have a sitting duck in Iraq: U.S. troops. In other words, U.S. military commanders know that the bombing of the Islamic Republic would result in a blood bath against U.S. troops in Iraq and a possible humiliating withdrawal from that country, albeit tactical.

But wouldn’t an Israeli attack against Iran result in the same? You bet. The Guards of the Islamic Revolution, according to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, have already begun to sneak into Iraq. Why? For one, to jump-start a Shia insurgency against the Americans should the U.S. or Israel attack Iran; and, to (generally) revive the resistance against American troops, now that the Sunnis have quieted down

A Gulf of Tonkin incident? Can you think of a better way to overcome opposition to the draft?

(There could be another reason for the Vice President and Mr. Bolton to have chosen to mobilize AIPAC's people. It's called early jury selection. Taking a lesson out of Bill Clinton's playbook (See poem above), the Vice President could be eyeing the upcoming trial in federal disrict court of his aide, and AIPAC could be eyeing the federal investigation of two of its former employees.)


THE NOOSE AROUND THE NECK OF IRAN AND EMPIRE: IRAN PREPARES FOR SANCTIONS... IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION?

It seems that gasoline, refined mostly from petroleum, could be Iran’s Achilles’s heel in its confrontation with Empire.

I found out about this early in February, but I didn’t believe it at first. The news had come from a “Western diplomat” in Tehran. Iran, he had said, imported large quantities of gasoline; it didn’t have the refining capacity to produce all it needed.

Said diplomat asserted that Iran imported 40 to 50 percent of its gasoline for domestic consumption. The government sold this gasoline to the Iranian public at discounted prices. Cheap gasoline in Iran, he had averred, was perceived as a right

A month or so later, on or about March 9, 2006, I found confirmation for what the “Western diplomat” had claimed. One Iranian daily reported that the Shoura Council has approved legislation to ration the consumption of gasoline.

This Iranian weakness has its American match in the precarious balance between the global supply of and the demand for oil. Any significant incident that affects supply would result in a tremor in the global and the U.S. economies. Iran can reduce its own production. Or, it can ask its proxies in Iraq to attack Iraqi oil installations. Or it can fire Shihab missiles into the Abqaiq oil complex in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern province.

Perhaps the Bush Administration can take a lesson from Iran’s Shoura Council and help enact gasoline rationing legislation. Fast. The alternative: Our federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates at a faster pace to slow down the global economy and the concomitant voraciousness for the oil resource. Pick and choose. Or a coalition of responsible politicians (huh?) would need to have the courage to make the case for raising taxes on gasoline.

OF COUNTER-INSURGENCY AND DEATH SQUADS

Both Sunni and Shia nationalist press sources are pointing the finger at the United States as the country behind the Askariyyah mosque explosion and the massacres against Sunnis in its aftermath. These accusations may be part of Iran and Syria’s attempt to hammer together an Iraqi united front against the United States. If you blame Empire, it’ll help you overcome the sectarian divisions.

(However much the U.S. buys up Arab reporters, and the Saudis, you still get some nationalist press that the U.S. and the Saudis couldn’t buy out. One of these media sources is getting money from the Saudis. You can tell. Its Editor-in-Chief is full of new-found praises for King Abdallah. But his paper is close to Iran. For a while maybe, the multiplicity of his financial sources works alright.)

One article accuses John Negroponte of having developed in Iraq American-controlled Iraqi death squads. The author of this article says that these “American” death squads roved about after the Askariyyah bombing and murdered Sunnis in an attempt to widen further the sectarian divide. By so doing, it is alleged, Empire would be able to diminish Iranian influence in Iraq, and limit it to the Shias. Not to mention that the sectarian massacres, by drawing the Sunnis closer to the United States, should draw Syria away from Iran.

In short, these media sources (which are close to Iran and to Palestinian nationalists) are asserting that the United States wants to stay in Iraq come what may.

Is It true?

The only practical (and circumstantial) way to find out whether these allegations carry any truth to them is to wait out the response.

If in fact there are “American death squads”–men who respond to U.S. orders–then we should expect Muqtadha as-Sadr, with Iran’s help, to launch an “intra-shia” campaign of assassinations. If in fact these death squads are independent of Abdel-Aziz Hakim, and totally belong to the United States, we should expect Sadr and Iran to start picking at them. Iraqi society is so close-knit that these men and their families will not be able to remain unknown. (Get immigration employees over to Kuwait and have lots of green cards ready.)

Ditto for the Sunnis.

In short, we would need to wait for reporters to tell us about the massacre or kidnaping of a Shia family by Shia men in a Shia town (e.g., Basra). If such reports start reaching us, then it would mean that Muqtadha and the Iranians had begun to identify, kidnap, or eliminate the families of the members of America’s death squads.

Ditto for the Sunnis.

In the meanwhile, the Sunnis, as SaudiPolitics had so perceptively (:o)) predicted, have diminished their resistance operations against the Americans, mainly to force Iran to use its Shias and, as a result, deepen the Shia-American rift. The Americans then would have no choice but to beef up the Arab Sunnis in Iraq to the consternation of the Kurds. Realistically, however, this may be too late. Iran, through Russia and Syria, should have quite a lot of influence within Arab Sunni ranks, in spite of the sectarian massacres. Iran has the money, as does Russia.

Tangentially, watch for any gruesome massacre by Shias against Sunnis. If that happens, we should expect retaliation against Shias in the Gulf countries. Either way, we should expect a continued rapprochement between the Arab governments of the Gulf and Iran, as the Gulf governments would need Iran to quiet down their own Shias, and Iran would need them to break any sanctions imposed by Empire.