IT’S GETTING NASTY, DIRTY, AND QUITE UGLY.

DRAFT---THIRD

IT’S GETTING NASTY, DIRTY, AND QUITE UGLY.

IRAN v. THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES


A news item quoted in an Iranian daily, from another Iranian daily, caught my eye. It was placed in a part of the paper that is often used to relay Iran’s messages to other countries. The news item (my translation):

“An Iranian newspaper said: A witness to the incident of the 11th of September and who is known as Witness “S” has declared that in addition to his own knowledge, [he possesses] documents proving that the ‘aat [a reference probably to a country] had [prior] knowledge of the [September 11] incident and that the Mosad too was involved in [the September 11 incident] in a direct fashion”

What’s this all about?

Here’s an attempt at an answer.



RECYCLING PETRODOLLARS: THE UAE FALLS IN LOVE WITH ISRAEL

Taking a lesson from the Bush Administration, various Gulf countries have been playing “the Israel card,” so to speak. The Bush Administration played that card to help defuse Congressional opposition to its planned invasion of Iraq. For a while, the administration's Israel card worked very well. A majority in Congress signed on, and many in the Jewish community hoorayed the invasion. These since have been backpedaling at the sight of mounting American casualties.

Now the Gulf countries are at it. Their goal is to use warmer relations with Israel to defuse Congressional opposition to their purchase of sensitive sectors of the U.S. economy, inidependently, without going through the Carlysle Group.

The most recent example has been the Dubai Ports World's attempted takeover of operations at six major U.S. ports. This purchase has caused an uproar in Congress.

For a few years now, the United Arab Emirates and Israel have been sending feelers to each other. These feelers have started to pay off. Recently, for example, it was revealed in Israel that the Foreign Ministry has asked the Israel General Security Services to allow citizens of the UAE to visit Israel. A week or so ago, Dubai allowed a visit by an official Israeli delegation, and two Israeli officials participated there in an international conference on the environment.

Moreover, the President of the UAE, Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Aal Nahyan, has met with Abu Mazin, the President of the Palestinian Authority. This meeting, soon after Hamas’s electoral sweep in the Palestine section of Israel/Palestine, revealed a possible mediation by the UAE between Israel and Abu Mazin. This mediation could be meant to weaken Hamas in the long run.

The UAE’s flirtation with Israel has some roots in geopolitics. A deep current of suspicion characterizes the relations between the UAE and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran had occupied three islands which the UAE asserts belong to it. (See earlier article in this newsletter about the subject.) Too, the UAE has lost the protection which once Arab Iraq afforded it against Iran. Any replacement of that protection, albeit from afar and likely ineffective, is welcome.


BACK TO THE IRANIAN NEWS ITEM

What a statement! My take on it (and please consider my take with a grain of salt) is that this is a threat against the UAE. Who is the ‘Aat, after all? The word Emirates in Arabic transliterates as Imarat. It ends with the sound “aat” as does the reference in the Iranian news item.

Bluntly: Iran is saying that it has someone who has information about important officials in the UAE who knew in advance about the upcoming September 11 horrific criminal bombings. Iran is in effect sending a message to the UAE that its warming relations with Israel, meant mostly to defuse Congressional opposition to its investments in the United States, will beget a revelation from Iran that would be so explosive as to damage Congressional relations with the UAE–forever. The allegation of course loses much of its potency with the inclusion of the Mosad.

Will it work?

Depends on whether in fact the Iranians have a credible personality who knew something about some UAE emirs who colluded with Osama bin Laden in the September 11 horror attacks, and who either held official positions or were related to the ruling families.

It shows the Iranians to be savvy enough to know how to stoke an American fire about a possible collusion by one or some UAE officials. This proposition might sway an American public which the Bush Administration had taken to war against Arabs. But it also shows the Iranians to be silly enough to include Mosad, which hardly anyone among U.S. opinion makers or among the public would believe knew about September 11 yet chose not to warn the United States.