UN-CIVIL WARS

second rough draft

(NOTE: Forgive the shameless speculation. Not.)

INTRODUCTION

After their bully had failed against the Hezbollah men, the harmful idiots learned (with great difficulty) that perhaps, just perhaps, they are...idiots. Now they’re setting up Lebanon and Palestine for bloody civil wars, a la Iraq. Will they succeed?

LEBANON

While the Israelis were raining cluster bombs on Lebanese families and children, the harmful-idiot-in-chief, the September 11 queen, promised a new Middle East. Racism makes it such that the life of Arab children means little. Accordingly, the September 11 queen allowed the Israeli bully to murder over 1200 civilians and destroy a country as her September 11 team had destroyed Iraq.

Nothing new to Arabs and Muslims. Her predecessor in the Clinton Administration once had said that the death of 500,000 Iraqi children was a price worth paying to remove Saddam Hussein. (In fairness, she later apologized.) Still, it proves the point that Arab and Muslim blood can be spilt without any pangs of remorse. I suspect empathy and conscience require a modicum of smarts, something that, by definition, the harmful idiots lack.

THE RUSE

The harmful idiots had been able to mobilize thousands of international troops and dispatch them to Lebanon as part of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.) The ruse: To use them, once they set up, as a NATO force, to forcefully disarm Hezbollah. To do this while an arms embargo is in effect against Syria and Hezbollah.

THE EMBARGO

(The embargo became evident when Cypriot authorities claimed to have themselves re-directed a North Korean ship bearing a Panamanian flag into one of Cyprus’ ports. They confiscated equipment meant for an air defense system, on its way to Syria. Although the Cypriots said that neither NATO nor the U.S. had participated in the operation, no one believed that. The all-alert SaudiPoltics certainly doesn’t.

(The Cypriots seem to have decided to join the war between the harmful idiots, the Israelis, the Saudi government, the Jordanian government, and the Egyptian government in one camp (the Arab people of these countries, all-–across classes, tribes, army ranks–-are with Iran and Hezbollah), and in the other, the Iranians, the Russians, and the Syrians. (The Chinese are forging along in their commercial takeover of the Iranian market while our oil companies still are waiting to collect on Vice-President Cheney’s confident imperial promise to them to give them all of Iraq’s oil. Darn. What happened?)

(Turkey has joined in the embargo against Hezbollah. It has been forcing Iranian planes into landing in its airports, denying other planes passage over its airspace. Wonder whether the Turks are begging for some generous financing of the PKK by the Iranians. True, the Iranians for now are fighting the PKK. But it wouldn’t take much for Iran to change course. Are the Turkish generals missing that agonizing civil war with the Kurds? Or are the promised new U.S. bases to be built in their country enough of a cargo to make up for the thriving tourist industry? Or do they think they can have both: a civil war and a tourist industry? Don't know.)

BE SERIOUS: LEBANON

Why it is unlikely that a civil war would erupt in Lebanon?

Because the harmful idiots would have no one of substance in Lebanon to bank on to join UNIFIL in a war to disarm Hezbollah:

1. The Lebanese army is mostly Shiite, the brothers and cousins of Hezbollah fighters.

2. Samir Geagea, a probable asset of the harmful idiots, can come up at best with 89.2 men to wage war. These would be mostly middle age, looking for extra income, who would be reluctant to die lest they leave behind their children who still need them.

(IMPORTANT NOTE: When I say that someone is an asset, I have no proof whatsoever. I’m guessing. I can smell these things from the evidence before me. Take Tony Blair: I’d bet money he’s an asset. Ambitious, and wanting in testosterone, he probably was picked up by our people a long time ago. Don’t you love that photo of him in a white shirt, being a MAN, finally, afer killing Iraqis, walking victorious with his troops in Iraq early in the affair, after the morons had bought into the stellar ideas of the strategic geniuses of the Jewish Right and its allies?)

3. Waleed Jumblatt, a probable asset of the harmful idiots and a cargo getter from the Saudis, has a Druse population of 19.4 people; and so he can come up with 3 men to fight Hezbollah.

Gone are the days when he could secure thousands of Syrian and Palestinian warriors, dress them up in Lebanese Socialist Party uniforms, and unleash them to do their massacres of Christians in Damour and Bhamdoun. Days these no more are.

4. Amin Gemayyel, a probable asset of the harmful idiots, can come up with 22 men from the Metn region, all only children to educated Christian parents, fluent in French, English, German or Spanish, who should be extremely reluctant to gamble their life away to help achieve the goals of the country (the harmful idiots’) which had sold out Lebanon's Christians more than once.

5. Saad Hariri. He owns the harmful idiots, via Saudi Arabia. Bush and Cheney are his assets, probably. (Who else but the Kingdom would have such a big heart as to flood these men with money afer they leave the White House? Wait and be dazzled.) Saad should be able to come up with, oh.....zero men. If anything, he would be shot by his own Nasserite constituents in Sidon should there be an attempt to disarm Hezbollah.

Recall when the murderer of civilians at Sabra and Shatila, Ariel Sharon, had sent his goons into West Beirut in the early 1980s, after the PLO had been evacuated to Tunisia? There was not a single shot fired at Israeli troops in West Beirut. Pray tell, why? Where were the superb Murabitoun, the Sunni militia so active in the Lebanon civil war? Well, we found out that the Murabitoun were Palestinian fighters dressed in the uniforms of Murabitoun, having attended special Berlitz (sp.) classes to help them modulate their accent a la West Beirut.

No men for Mr. Hariri. Only tons and tons of money for his family. Oh... where from, pray tell?

6. Most importantly: Hezbollah has two solid safety valves:

a. Michel Aoun. The Christian leader is allied to Hezbollah. He has the men, young and old ( a respectable number of experienced former army officers and soldiers.) But Hezbollah doesn’t need these. It needs the General to remain popular among Christians to syphon off the majority of young men into his Free Patriotic Movement and away from causing trouble for Hezbollah. (Michel Aoun is undisputably the most favored leader among the Christians. Hands down.)

B. Nabih Berri. I suspect Mr. Berri is one of the most astute cargo getters among Lebanese politicians. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States favor him. He’s no fool, you see. He should be eminently reluctant to become involved in an intra-Shiite civil war. No way Jose. Repeat after me: Yes for cargo; no for civil war.

(Funny those Israelis. They bombed everything but never even scathed Mr. Berri’s villa in Salihiyyah, near their border. They bombed each and every factory that competed with theirs-–dairy, pre-fab...–but left the villa standing. Told you Mr. Berri was smart.)

BE SERIOUS: PALESTINE

Hezbollah’s impressive performance against the harmful idiots’ bully sent the harmful idiots scurrying after Abu Mazin, the same man they had disparaged as a useless slave. they needed to erect obstacles to Hamas. They had engaged in starving the Islamic government, financially. But that took them nowhere; they needed an alternative to Hamas. Time to revive Abu Mazin and Fateh.

The harmful idiots and their allies (Israel, Saudi Arabia--Olmert now is flirting with Saudi King Abdallah--the BAE Systems money must've arrived!-- Jordan, and Egypt) have been pouring arms and training onto the Presidential Guard–-Abu Mazin’s (practically) personal army. The idea is to unleash these against Hamas. In addition, they have pumped lots of money into Fateh’s pockets and had these buy up what’s left of the AK-47s and M-16s off the open market, to deny them to Hamas. So much so that an AK-47 is now going for $4000 and an M—16 for $9,000. Israeli and Egyptian merchants have smelled opportunity and are said to be supplying an underground market with more of the same, and with ammunition. (Note to self: set up in the Sinai as a middle man. Need tent, and shiny beads to exchange with the bedouins.)

Will they go at it?

Maybe, here and there, now and then. Abu Mazin had been to the White House and probably reached an agreement with the harmful idiots on a plan. The harmful idiots and their Israeli bully would like nothing less than a full and juicy (with Palestinian blood) civil war. But, likely, Abu Mazin would prefer to regain the upper hand in Palestine by showering all with cargo, now that they all are starving. He would rather not engage in a civil war. He might have to, but I doubt that he would like that.

At the very least, he would like to regain his power base, which is the West Bank, and he certainly knows that he stands no chance in Gaza, Hamas’s power base.

He’s no idiot. He knows that the White House became available to him thanks to Hezbollah’s performance and the fear that Hamas would eventually catch up with that party. So, if he eliminates Hamas, he would be eliminating the most powerful card he possesses–a card that obtains recognition for him and lots of cargo.

Without the threat of Hamas, he would be a slave, through and through, kissing the Israelis’ ass for each little concession. With Hamas, the Israelis and the harmful idiots would have to kiss his ass. What would his choice be?

Clashes and assassinations and bombings, to clip Hamas’s wings: Likely. Outright civil war: Unlikely.