CHANCE ENCOUNTERS

CHANCE ENCOUNTERS

This account has been fictionalized to protect the identity of the various characters–the good, the bad, and the ugly.


CHANCE ENCOUNTERS: A MOLE, A COMPROMISED COMPUTER, MONITORED ONLINE ACTIVITIES, UNMITIGATED HARASSMENT, ISRAEL, SAUDI ARABIA, AND SO MUCH LESS.



1. I’M DOOMED TO CHANCE ENCOUNTERS. . . WITH UGLY GUYS.

Recently I’ve gone through a spree of consulting with friends who are former FBI and former CIA. I’d give each the facts and he would laugh. “No, you’re not paranoid,” they all seemed to agree. You’ve been set up. The chance encounters are not. And each would go on to detail what can happen next, involving multiple possibilities and the defensive measures I could take.

The source of these chance encounters was a friend. Being the second child, I’m good with friends. They say that the first child is the star, so the second has to look for stardom outside the family–to make friends. A good reason for my enduring friendships is that I never cross a friend. Of course, I expect the same.

Then I made friends with a younger person–we’ll call him Faith–, a social worker. He is the youngest in his family. These, from a birth order perspective, can lack a strong personality, replacing it with knee-jerk stubbornness, their way of fighting off their older siblings’ control and, later, the world. Soon after, I started issuing SaudiPolitics. Then a couple of years ago, I noticed a pattern of chance encounters. I was able to identify them (maybe only some) relatively fast thanks probably to the interpreting I’ve done at security seminars. But some were likely meant for me to notice, anyway.

You’re aching, aren’t you? You want to know why the former spies and special agents had laughed at my lot.

The answer: Faith , and those behind him, would possibly have done so much better had they sent attractive women to do the chance encounters. But they must not be able to secure attractive women. So, instead, they’ve been sending unattractive guys.

It made sense. Faith isn’t exactly a women magnet. If his network is anything like him, I’m doomed (sex wise) as their target. I’d have to deal with chance encounters with ugly guys.

But is there harassment and intimidation? Yes, said one former special agent. We’ll monitor where this is heading and we should get a better picture.


2. HOW IT ALL BEGAN

The first time I had a chance encounter was in my once-vacation haunt. I had forwarded my itinerary to my sister (for family reasons) and to a “friend” who I had met at a Maronite church, and who lived in my once-favored vacation haunt.

When I arrived at the airport I proceeded to the public bus area. (I’m cheap: A taxi would cost me around $25; the bus: $1.50.) As I waited for my bus, an unattractive young guy, wiry and affecting hyperactivity, came up to me and asked me what bus to take to the same location where I was heading. I told him I was taking the same bus, and gave him instructions. He asked where my accent was from, I said Lebanon; he said he was from Israel. “Come give me a hug, you crazy neighbor.” He started telling me about the women in Columbia , South America, how stunning and friendly they were.

This talk would be the closest I ever got to a sex-minded chance encounter.

I boarded the bus and he wanted to sit with me. Politely, I asked him not to. I was reading and writing and I wasn’t interested in fantasizing with a male about the gorgeous women of Columbia. He tried again, more than once. Having interpreted at countless security seminars, I became suspicious.

We left the first bus to transfer to another. He tried to join me and I said that I wanted to have lunch. He said we’d have it together. I said no, politely again. I split, hailed a taxi and made my escape.


2A. THE WITHERING MARONITES

In the late afternoon, I met up with my Maronite “friend.” He had fought in the Lebanese civil war. Many like him had trained in Israel. I never asked him whether he had. But I was aware that he was friends with a Maronite fellow who many among the Maronites saw as working for Israel.

I confronted my Maronite friend. " When you send me an Israeli spy," I said, "please have the courtesy and common sense to send me an attractive Israeli woman, not an ugly Israeli guy.” He smiled. I’ve always thought he had class. Sure he failed in his test in recruiting an...what/who are they trying to recruit? But he didn’t seem to be serious about it, anyway.


I cut off all communication with him. A couple of times, he tried to refer pro bono (in effect) cases to me, but I didn’t act on his referrals or return his phone calls. He got the message. These guys can’t even send you cases that make money!

The question: Was he or his “cell” in touch with Faith’s circle?


2B. USELESS AGENTS

These guys–the Maronites who are beholden to Israel–are now useless to that state, since their community in Lebanon has become marginal and therefore of no use to Israel and its supporters.

The Maronite General Aoun has even concluded a memorandum of understanding with Hizbullah. This man and his followers are the more popular among the Christians in Lebanon. That he would reach an understanding with Hizbullah means that a majority in the Maronite community has come to realize that Empire wants them marginal and that only an alliance with Hizbullah could save them of that fate.

(Empire is betting on Sunni money in Lebanon, i.e., Saad al-Hariri. This bet will fail since Saad doesn’t have the troops, and his money should be balanced out by Iranian and Russian--through Syria--money.)

Competing with Aoun was Geagea and his Lebanese Forces. One can safely presume that Saad al-Hariri (a [floating] state within a [bankrupt] state) is now financing these. But they are significantly less popular among the Maronites than Aoun. Six thousand of their former members and sympathizers live in exile in Israel. (These would like to emigrate to North America or Australia, but the governments of these countries refuse to grant them visas.) One can rest assured that Hizbullah is monitoring each and every move by Geagea and his followers especially that Saad al-Hariri travels often to Jordan, which Hizbullah and its sponsors perceive as an American-Israeli base.

In short, the Maronite Israeli “cell” of my old vacation haunt probably has become useless to Israel, though anything goes when it comes to feeling communal solidarity, Jewish and exiled Maronites, against the Arabs, Muslims, Palestinians, Syrians.

But that’s no longer how the Maronites of Lebanon feel. Trying to show me off to their Israeli handler indicated that these guys were now desperate to prove their usefulness to Israel.


3. THE SECOND ENCOUNTER: AN OLD MAN WHO THINKS PROBABLY THAT HE IS A CELEBRITY


Faith and I decided by telephone to meet at a Starbucks and do work. I arrived first. After I set up my computer, I turned to the crossword puzzle. The old man was sitting at a counter facing the outside, though his body faced in my direction. He rushed to me and said, Number 6 Down, pointing to the crossword, yes, you’re right, it is Moses. I smiled at him. Faith showed up soon after.

Only afer I left Starbucks did I realize that this was probably a planned chance encounter. That the old man probably was some sort of celebrity. And that Faith, after agreeing by telephone to meet, sent him over, and waited to arrive later.

(I had so many other chance encounters–the one with a former soldier of the Israel Defense Forces who probably took my photograph using his cell phone; the one who was taking my photograph on I street, not far from Pennsylvania Avenue, outright, as I exited a work place where I had served a subpoena on a witness in one of my upcoming trials.)


4. THE THIRD ENCOUNTER: THE UNLOVED CELEBRITY.

My mother was (and still is) dying. After I had overcome the original shock, I went through (and still am) a period of sadness. Unconsciously, I await her phone call every afternoon. The phone doesn’t ring, and I realize it’ll never. It happens again on Sundays, as I await her call to take her to the Lebanese church.

I got myself busy with work and SaudiPolitics.

Faith called me and asked whether I wanted to meet. Sure, I said, anything to get out and dodge the sadness. And drive my second old car that is meant for the 20 year-olds, but which I bought at an auction on an impulse.

I had earlier published an article titled, “An Imperial Blind Spot...” The article spoke about two celebrities and their intellectual mediocrity: the President of the Johns Hopkins University and the current President of the World Bank. One of these showed up at the meeting place. Faith feigned ignorance.

I left there and dropped in on a former FBI agent. He said that the appearance of the celebrity very likely was an engineered chance encounter. He warned me that Faith might be taping our conversations and passing them on to those motivating him. And they, in turn, were passing them on to their foreign contact, then to the Saudis–to score points. I didn’t give a f..., I said. He agreed They might have broken into your email and compromised your computer, he said, providing details... I didn’t give a f..., I said. He agreed. Faith may have bugged your apartment, he said. I didn’t give a f..., I said. He agreed.


4A. CONFRONTING FAITH

There's a proverb in Arabic which says, "The one who doesn't confront you doesn't like you." (Yalli ma bey3atbak, ma biy3izzak.) I liked Faith; so I needed to confront him. Give the friendship a chance.

A couple of days later, while at Starbucks working on cases, I confronted Faith. I’ve never seen anyone lose composure as he. He offered dinner. Being as cheap as I, that was an amazing feat. His frugality with me told me that this chance encounter business was amateurish. If an intelligence service was behind it, you’d think Faith would be spending big time on me. Not so.

But this had become irksome and very annoying. Adding harassment by an organized group to the sadness borne out of my mother’s slow death was a prescription for clinical depression. I was now considering ending this friendship.

I consulted with a friend, a seasoned psychologist. “Honey,” she said, “People are not perfect. Faith is looking for relevance in his life. You’re right; he’s no Andrew who has a terrific ability to compartmentalize his worlds and insulate the one part from the other; Faith is a weakling, a very insecure individual, ,whose torments are probably many. But honey, seriously, how many Andrews do you find in a life time?” (Andrew was a common friend.)


4B. THE BATMITZVAH STORY

I tried to communicate the message to Faith to save the friendship and stop the harassment.

I had gone to a the Batmitzvah of a friend’s daughter. A real friend, I intimated with little subtlety. When there, my friend, call him Andrew, would come to me and warn me. “This guy is coming to talk to you; be careful; he’s a religious zealot.” Andrew’s brother, a principled man always, a progressive, would stay nearby to come to my help anytime he would feel one of the right wing zealots’ voice raised even a tad.

Faith–the setter of the chance encounters–feigned ignorance. What’s he getting out of it?


5. ANOTHER UGLY GUY; THE HARASSMENT CONTINUES; MY COMPUTER IS COMPROMISED.


I made reservation online for a car, and the car rental agency sent me confirmation to my Yahoo address. I was heading to Pennsylvania with my father. I was to return the car at 8:00 PM on a Sunday. I never really conversed by telephone about the time I was returning the car, though Faith had been to my apartment and could’ve placed a bug.

On that Sunday, I returned the car to Reagan National Airport. I proceeded to the metro and boarded a car. I took over a two-seat-bench and was leafing through Consumer Reports, looking for their take on the Saturn Ion, the car I had rented.

Sat behind me a rather unattractive and big guy. He was eager to strike a conversation with me. The car issue of Consumer Reports provided him an excuse.

He said he just bought this car, and he has that car, and he drives this car in L.A., and that car in Dallas. He was a nice guy, but not the woman who I expected these chance encounters by now would produce.

He said that he and his family had missed their flight in Dallas, that his wife and daughter made it on standby, but that he and his son or sons flew to Philadelphia instead and drove to D.C.–and now he had just returned the rental car.

I shook his hand, bid him goodbye, and left the train. Who was he? An extremely minor personality on a public television show which I watch once or twice a year, possibly. When home I emailed Faith and asked him, once again, to please not send ugly guys my way. That if he wanted to dispatch subjects for chance encounters, that they be attractive Swedish women. What I meant was: Stop the harassment. Now I was certain Faith’s circle had compromised my computer. How else would it have known about the car rental, the return date, the return time ?


5A. FAITH TURNING MORE INTO A ZEALOT--THE DISTANCE BETWEEN US GROWS WIDER.

I ran into Faith the day after at one courthouse. He didn’t comment on my email. Later, he showed up at the courthouse again and was antsy and a tad aggressive. Who did the Abqaiq attempted bombing? He asked. Then he answered his own question. “The Saudis themselves did it,” he asserted. No, they didn’t, I said. Patiently, I explained what country I thought could have been behind it and why.

He was either wearing a bugging device or he was hoping to sway me in the newsletter. (Many people had tried, to no use. It’s an INDEPENDENT newsletter. My inspiration for the newsletter, other than September 11, was and continues to be the spirit of a graduate student: Irreverence towards authority that is compromised by so many interests and no longer represents the public good.)

Obviously, Faith was completely mobilized, at a neurotic emotional state that didn’t lend itself to reasoning. He was the counterpart of an Islamic Jihad militant. He and his circle of harassment probably were angry that Saudi Arabia wouldn’t scorn Hamas. Mobilized, he couldn’t (and wouldn’t) comprehend that the Saudis had their own security to consider.

At any rate, and generally speaking, one would have to account for one important motivational factor in Israel’s behavior and that of its unquestioning supporters: Its competition with other protectorates. In other words, Israel would like to monopolize’s Empire’s connection. Other protectorates, including eventually a Palestinian one, would stand in the way of this hope. On a practical level, I couldn’t expect Faith to understand all of this. Hamas’s electoral win seemed to turn him into a zealot, and farther away from being a political analyst.


6. SPIES: THE OLDER THEY GET THE MORE THEY LAUGH–AT ME.

One former CIA laughed as never before. I nearly turned yellow from shame. These guys, he said, not only are they losers when it comes to women, they’re also so damn cheap. You’re describing me, I said. He didn’t hear me and went on laughing. I walked away.

He later apologized.

CIRCUMVENTING U.S. GENERALS.

DRAFT--THIRD

CIRCUMVENTING U.S. GENERALS; AND THE GASOLINE NOOSE AROUND IRAN’S NECK AND OURS.

INTRODUCTION: A POEM

Rescue me,
O darling protectorate
Bomb the Muslims
Make the Mullahs irate
That ivory-white Arkansas man
I will emulate
Who refused to get laid
Then awoke a black American
And to Africa his way made
I will wear a yarhmulke
And against that holiest of walls
Promise to rock my neck
And bang my wide forehead

18% VICE-PRESIDENT CHENEY TO ISRAEL


IS THIS PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE OR IS VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY TRYING TO CIRCUMVENT U.S. GENERALS, YET AGAIN?

The loudest sign of imperial desperation was Vice-President Cheney’s choice of forum for issuing yet another ultimatum to Iran. The forum: an AIPAC conference (American Israel Public Affairs Committee–the Israel lobby.)

Mr. Cheney had in the past threatened an Israeli (not an American) strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. His statements can be construed as part of Empire’s psychological campaign directed at the Islamic Republic. (See earlier article, “Hush, Hush, Spin, Spin...") But the choice of forum tells me something else. It indicates that the Vice President is truly and publicly seeking military help from the Israelis.

Is that unusual?

Yes. If in fact the United States needs military assistance from Israel, it would properly communicate that need discreetly and through military or diplomatic channels. To do it at the AIPAC conference smacks not only of domestic politick-ing, but also of near-begging by the Vice President. (John Bolton, U.S. Representative to the United Nations, also a neon-con, had given an equally anti-Iran speech to the same conference.)

Why would the Vice President be seeking Israel’s help?

My take on it is that U.S. commanders have refused to entertain the idea of bombing Iran at the present time. They have a sitting duck in Iraq: U.S. troops. In other words, U.S. military commanders know that the bombing of the Islamic Republic would result in a blood bath against U.S. troops in Iraq and a possible humiliating withdrawal from that country, albeit tactical.

But wouldn’t an Israeli attack against Iran result in the same? You bet. The Guards of the Islamic Revolution, according to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, have already begun to sneak into Iraq. Why? For one, to jump-start a Shia insurgency against the Americans should the U.S. or Israel attack Iran; and, to (generally) revive the resistance against American troops, now that the Sunnis have quieted down

A Gulf of Tonkin incident? Can you think of a better way to overcome opposition to the draft?

(There could be another reason for the Vice President and Mr. Bolton to have chosen to mobilize AIPAC's people. It's called early jury selection. Taking a lesson out of Bill Clinton's playbook (See poem above), the Vice President could be eyeing the upcoming trial in federal disrict court of his aide, and AIPAC could be eyeing the federal investigation of two of its former employees.)


THE NOOSE AROUND THE NECK OF IRAN AND EMPIRE: IRAN PREPARES FOR SANCTIONS... IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION?

It seems that gasoline, refined mostly from petroleum, could be Iran’s Achilles’s heel in its confrontation with Empire.

I found out about this early in February, but I didn’t believe it at first. The news had come from a “Western diplomat” in Tehran. Iran, he had said, imported large quantities of gasoline; it didn’t have the refining capacity to produce all it needed.

Said diplomat asserted that Iran imported 40 to 50 percent of its gasoline for domestic consumption. The government sold this gasoline to the Iranian public at discounted prices. Cheap gasoline in Iran, he had averred, was perceived as a right

A month or so later, on or about March 9, 2006, I found confirmation for what the “Western diplomat” had claimed. One Iranian daily reported that the Shoura Council has approved legislation to ration the consumption of gasoline.

This Iranian weakness has its American match in the precarious balance between the global supply of and the demand for oil. Any significant incident that affects supply would result in a tremor in the global and the U.S. economies. Iran can reduce its own production. Or, it can ask its proxies in Iraq to attack Iraqi oil installations. Or it can fire Shihab missiles into the Abqaiq oil complex in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern province.

Perhaps the Bush Administration can take a lesson from Iran’s Shoura Council and help enact gasoline rationing legislation. Fast. The alternative: Our federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates at a faster pace to slow down the global economy and the concomitant voraciousness for the oil resource. Pick and choose. Or a coalition of responsible politicians (huh?) would need to have the courage to make the case for raising taxes on gasoline.

OF COUNTER-INSURGENCY AND DEATH SQUADS

Both Sunni and Shia nationalist press sources are pointing the finger at the United States as the country behind the Askariyyah mosque explosion and the massacres against Sunnis in its aftermath. These accusations may be part of Iran and Syria’s attempt to hammer together an Iraqi united front against the United States. If you blame Empire, it’ll help you overcome the sectarian divisions.

(However much the U.S. buys up Arab reporters, and the Saudis, you still get some nationalist press that the U.S. and the Saudis couldn’t buy out. One of these media sources is getting money from the Saudis. You can tell. Its Editor-in-Chief is full of new-found praises for King Abdallah. But his paper is close to Iran. For a while maybe, the multiplicity of his financial sources works alright.)

One article accuses John Negroponte of having developed in Iraq American-controlled Iraqi death squads. The author of this article says that these “American” death squads roved about after the Askariyyah bombing and murdered Sunnis in an attempt to widen further the sectarian divide. By so doing, it is alleged, Empire would be able to diminish Iranian influence in Iraq, and limit it to the Shias. Not to mention that the sectarian massacres, by drawing the Sunnis closer to the United States, should draw Syria away from Iran.

In short, these media sources (which are close to Iran and to Palestinian nationalists) are asserting that the United States wants to stay in Iraq come what may.

Is It true?

The only practical (and circumstantial) way to find out whether these allegations carry any truth to them is to wait out the response.

If in fact there are “American death squads”–men who respond to U.S. orders–then we should expect Muqtadha as-Sadr, with Iran’s help, to launch an “intra-shia” campaign of assassinations. If in fact these death squads are independent of Abdel-Aziz Hakim, and totally belong to the United States, we should expect Sadr and Iran to start picking at them. Iraqi society is so close-knit that these men and their families will not be able to remain unknown. (Get immigration employees over to Kuwait and have lots of green cards ready.)

Ditto for the Sunnis.

In short, we would need to wait for reporters to tell us about the massacre or kidnaping of a Shia family by Shia men in a Shia town (e.g., Basra). If such reports start reaching us, then it would mean that Muqtadha and the Iranians had begun to identify, kidnap, or eliminate the families of the members of America’s death squads.

Ditto for the Sunnis.

In the meanwhile, the Sunnis, as SaudiPolitics had so perceptively (:o)) predicted, have diminished their resistance operations against the Americans, mainly to force Iran to use its Shias and, as a result, deepen the Shia-American rift. The Americans then would have no choice but to beef up the Arab Sunnis in Iraq to the consternation of the Kurds. Realistically, however, this may be too late. Iran, through Russia and Syria, should have quite a lot of influence within Arab Sunni ranks, in spite of the sectarian massacres. Iran has the money, as does Russia.

Tangentially, watch for any gruesome massacre by Shias against Sunnis. If that happens, we should expect retaliation against Shias in the Gulf countries. Either way, we should expect a continued rapprochement between the Arab governments of the Gulf and Iran, as the Gulf governments would need Iran to quiet down their own Shias, and Iran would need them to break any sanctions imposed by Empire.

ARAB IRAQ NO MORE: NOTES ON SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT, AND LEBANON.

d r a f t--s e c o n d

ARAB IRAQ NO MORE: NOTES ON SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT, AND LEBANON.


OF ARAB 3ASABIYYAH

A folksy story:

Once in Jordan, wearing my ubiquitous Dockers shorts, I entered a deli to buy water. A young man reached into the refrigerator and bought bottled juice. “Taste?” he asked; and he laughed. Absurd. Outside, he and his friends, all waiting for a bus to take them to the hotel where they worked, laughed even more. I approached them. Strumming the string of a strong Arab cultural trait, I told them that I was un-impressed by their tradition-less hospitality. The laughs ceased, and for a couple of seconds there was sheer silence. Then they all apologized, profusely, while hugging me. “El-akh 3arabi?” They asked and told each other. (“The brother is an Arab”). Their shame was genuine.

Politically, this story is telling. When the Bush Administration dismantled Arab Iraq, it did away with the only ideology that competently had balanced and in many places neutralized Islamism, Arab solidarity--Arab nationalism at the level of the masses--3asabiyyah. That Arab nationalism over the years became stale, and so many of its proponents became Uncle Toms, is besides the point. Iraq represented that secular ideology, albeit having infused it with a dash of Islamism. This sprinkle of Islamism made it yet more effective against the Osama bin Ladens of the Middle East.


SAUDI ARABIA REDISCOVERS THE PAIN OF THE PALESTINIANS, AND BUILDS A BRIDGE TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

Saudi Arabia has rediscovered the pain and destitution of the Palestinians. Its Al-Hayat, an excellent daily, but which frequently is used in propaganda campaigns by the American and British wings of the Saudi political establishment, has re-awakened to the fact that the Israeli occupation is horror itself. To keep a people under the boot of occupiers for decades, erecting hundreds of checkpoints, and to rob them of land and their share of Jerusalem, is indeed dehumanization on a grand scale.

The Saudis were reminded recently that all the money they now have will not protect them against al-Qaeda attacks. Perhaps it was a message, likely to the Saudi Foreign Minister and to Empire. (See earlier article, "Iran to Saud al-Faisal...") Abqaiq, which processes about two-third of the 9.5 million barrels per day of Saudi production, could have been severely damaged. And the world economy as a consequence would have experimented with a shock of gargantuan proportions.

Saudi Arabia now understands that it has to be careful about shedding its Arab identity, lest Iran outbids it on everything that connects Muslims and Arabs. Hence Al-Hayat’ s acute rediscovery of the Palestinians whose cause will likely remain the litmus test for Islamic solidarity. (Politically, Arab solidarity is passe. Its people are tenured professors at Western universities, self-hating Arabs, teaching the imperials how to cause destitution to Arabs and Muslims.) The Palestinians therefore should become a bridge-of-understanding between the Kingdom and Islamic Iran. Not bad for the Kingdom: The Palestinians are probably its least costly shield of protection.


THE PAIN AND TRIBULATION OF AN EGYPTIAN VASSAL

Egypt’s Mubarak is ailing and he wants his son to replace him. Empire has been cold and rather unfriendly, perhaps because it was the Egyptian vassals who, on orders by the Bush people, produced some of the loudest false intelligence on alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Colin Powell took that intelligence all the way to the U.N. Ms. Rice, like so many replacements in the Bush Administration, especially at the Pentagon, is now searching for a scapegoat. Better that it be a foreigner than someone in one’s own home. And Egypt, weak and unable to assist Empire, could very well be Ms. Rice’s scapegoat.


Empire’s mandarin-in-chief recently visited Egypt and made it clear that she wants the Egyptian vassal to pressure Hamas to recognize Israel (as if he could), to lay down its weapons (as if he could), and to accept the Oslo Accords (which the Israelis have all but reversed–as if he could.)

She also ordered him to declare war on Iran. (I’m only slightly kidding.)

The problem is that President Mubarak has little power. Unquestioned servitude to Empire has castrated Egypt. Any troops he could field to help Empire would be motivated by Islamism. So it’s difficult to put them at the service of Empire, lest they join the Muslim Brothers.

President Mubarak closed off his options when he instructed his intelligence services to assist the Bush Administration in the invasion of an Arab country. (Mubarak’s Egypt is European!) And, unlike Saudi Arabia which also assisted in the invasion (albeit passively), he didn’t (and doesn't) have the Kingdom's wealth to dodge the mandarins' inclination to scapegoat his country. Now he watches as Empire plays up to the Muslim Brothers in the hope of taming them. Empire’s hope springs eternal.

(To be clear: Saudi Arabia assisted in the Iraq invasion because the Bush Administration unleashed against it the dogs of hate who wanted to play the Shia card all the way, including in Saudi Arabia. They wanted to dismantle yet another Arab country. As for Egypt, it was following orders, as any vassal. The blame therefore for dismantling Iraq and its repercussions falls squarely on the Bush Administration. Accordingly, one should resist the temptation to scapegoat, as I suspect Dr. Rice is doing with President Mubarak.)

Rice spoke about the pitfalls and obstacles on the way to democracy in Egypt. She should know, shouldn’t she, that democracy would bring into office the Muslim Brothers. And these would infiltrate each and every state agency. She’s hoping that they would moderate. But what does she know. She was National Security Advisor when an extension of the Brothers committed the most heinous terror attack on American territory in recent history. Such will be her legacy, sooner or later. She was there, at the pinnacle of the national security pyramid.

Now she wants Mubarak to give these people more power and representation. He would love to remind her of her epic failure, caused by the very Brothers she wants to see sharing power. But he can’t; he’s on the payroll. He can’t remind her of where she sat when the mother of all terror crimes against national security was committed. She was asleep at the wheel, busy with all the nuts around her in preparing to invade an oil-rich Arab country. If Mubarak could, he would tell her that in any culture where honor and shame still were working concepts, she and many in the Bush Administration would have resigned, gone into a corner, written their apologies to the nation, and taken away their earthly life.

Poor President Mubarak. Soon after Ms. Rice left the region, he rushed over to the Gulf, then to Libya. My guess: He is looking for money to provide him the option to free his government from America’s suffocating hold. He probably offered his hosts a united Arab front to stare down Empire and Iran. But I think it’s too late for that. He doesn’t have the troops to lend to the Saudis or the Libyans. What troops he can muster will be infiltrated by Islamists–the only ones with motivation.

Besides, Saudi Arabia has been diversifying its sources of security. (See earlier article, “Micro strategies and the Security of Saudi Arabia.”) Arab troops on its territory, especially Egyptian, could spell trouble. They could, couldn’t they, draw close to the Islamists.

Saudi Arabia, however, probably is aware that it should be concerned that the Muslim Brothers could become part of the Egyptian state. It would be too close for comfort.

And, lest it be forgotten, it’s the fear of the United States which deters Iran from sending armies into the Arabian Peninsula. An American trip wire is all it takes to keep the Islamic Republic on its toes. The Gulf countries can enjoy the result. Simple balance of power calculus.

That is why Iran, for now, is not a threat. Iran is aware that only if it does something spectacular would Empire be able to mobilize its population to make a fifty-year commitment to that region. The Islamic Republic is too smart for that–to stage an attack on a Gulf country, for instance. Why should it? To help Empire mobilize its people? It wouldn’t. Iran can just play its cards one at a time: It owns the hearts and minds of the Sunni masses, in spite of the sectarian massacres in Iraq. Having watched Iran for the past few years, I doubt it would commit any act that would make it easier for Empire to enact the draft and send a million troops to invade the Islamic Republic.

But Empire can engineer an incident, a la Gulf of Tonkin, and blame Iran for it. It did after all engineer the weapons of mass destruction ruse. Let’s see how the Islamic Republic would deal with that. It’s too early for Empire to try out that trick, since its populace now mistrusts the White House. But, a few years from now...Who knows.


LEBANON: GOD BLESS THE STALEMATE

In Lebanon, they are flattered that Empire is paying attention to them, at last. But so were the Iraqis at first. See what happened.

The American proxies in Lebanon are playing a dangerous game: They don’t seem to appreciate that they are in a stalemate. And that they should be thankful for the stalemate. The alternative would be a civil war where most of the weapons are held by the proxies of Iran and Syria. The Lebanese army? It’s mostly Shia. And neither Empire nor the Europeans have the fighting troops to dispatch to Lebanon.

All really need a lesson in history: That much of Lebanon’s recent misery has been (and is) related to Syria’s nearly-forty year-long ceaseless quest to regain its Joulan. What makes anyone think that these efforts would cease, with sanctions or whatever else? Do you really think that a Sunni state in Syria would line up with Saudi Arabia and not with the Muslim Brothers and Iran? Hello!

Northern Lebanon, mostly Sunni, historically responds to Syria.

Waleed Jumblatt is now visiting Washington. What does he have to offer? What and who does he control anyway? No disrespect meant, but lets face it: The Druse are such a small minority in Lebanon, probably no more than 200,000. They "won" their battles in the Lebanese civil war using Syrian and Palestinian troops (from the Palestine Liberation Army) dressed in Jumblatt’s Lebanese Socialist Party fatigues. (Syria’s Palestinians, so to speak, are the ones who committed the Damour and Bhamdoun massacres against defenseless civilians.)

Waleed Jumblatt’s influence among the Arab masses stemmed mostly from his father’s Arab nationalist legacy. But that’s over now. I can detect an anti-Jumblatt campaign brewing in some of the Arab nationalist (Sunni) press. He makes money for his people from the Saudi Arabia via Saad al-Hariri, probably. Good for him; anything to keep his people from emigrating.

But he truly has little to offer Empire, except anti-Syrian and anti-Hizbullah diatribes, statements which lose their impact the more he makes them. And he wouldn’t dare use the Druse of Syria, lest he unleashes massacres against them. Syria is now hyper-mobilized and alert to what Empire is planning for it. It’s the wrong time to entice Empire-induced sectarian conflict; the state is so vigilant, and it has the support of the Sunni majority which sees the Iraq invasion as an American-Israeli scheme to weaken the Sunnis.

Saad Hariri doesn’t have the troops, either. He has the money; but so does Iran; so does Russia. His dad’s biggest mistake was his failure to appreciate that Syria could not–would not–let go of Lebanon without assuring the return of its Joulan. The Americans and the French led Rafiq on. Geniuses. Not.

And the French and Empire don’t have the troops either. They go to the U.N. like any weakling would. Ask the Arab governments if you will how often they dragged their tired bodies to the U.N. Security Council to force Israel to withdraw from Arab lands and avoid the current state of hyper-mobilized masses. What good was it? But these unfulfilled Resolutions did have results. They taught the masses something precious: that their governments are useless, and that they will have to rely on themselves.

Ghaltit al-Shatir b’alf ghaltah: Rafiq al-Hariri’s advisers weren’t that good. (I don’t know who they are; I’m result-oriented.) Let’s hope Saad’s are better. Saad should call on the Beqaa people, such as Robert Ghanem (I’m sorry I’m plugging in a relative; but I mean it), and the Skafs of Zahleh. These are wiser and more realistic, having to live between the rock and the hard place.

Empire should be careful not to push its proxies in Lebanon too far. It cannot protect them. It had dispatched a former Lebanese army officer (probably) to afford them protection; but he obviously has failed. Hizbullah (and therefore Iran and Syria) sit in each and every office of the state’s security bureaucracy.

IT’S GETTING NASTY, DIRTY, AND QUITE UGLY.

DRAFT---THIRD

IT’S GETTING NASTY, DIRTY, AND QUITE UGLY.

IRAN v. THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES


A news item quoted in an Iranian daily, from another Iranian daily, caught my eye. It was placed in a part of the paper that is often used to relay Iran’s messages to other countries. The news item (my translation):

“An Iranian newspaper said: A witness to the incident of the 11th of September and who is known as Witness “S” has declared that in addition to his own knowledge, [he possesses] documents proving that the ‘aat [a reference probably to a country] had [prior] knowledge of the [September 11] incident and that the Mosad too was involved in [the September 11 incident] in a direct fashion”

What’s this all about?

Here’s an attempt at an answer.



RECYCLING PETRODOLLARS: THE UAE FALLS IN LOVE WITH ISRAEL

Taking a lesson from the Bush Administration, various Gulf countries have been playing “the Israel card,” so to speak. The Bush Administration played that card to help defuse Congressional opposition to its planned invasion of Iraq. For a while, the administration's Israel card worked very well. A majority in Congress signed on, and many in the Jewish community hoorayed the invasion. These since have been backpedaling at the sight of mounting American casualties.

Now the Gulf countries are at it. Their goal is to use warmer relations with Israel to defuse Congressional opposition to their purchase of sensitive sectors of the U.S. economy, inidependently, without going through the Carlysle Group.

The most recent example has been the Dubai Ports World's attempted takeover of operations at six major U.S. ports. This purchase has caused an uproar in Congress.

For a few years now, the United Arab Emirates and Israel have been sending feelers to each other. These feelers have started to pay off. Recently, for example, it was revealed in Israel that the Foreign Ministry has asked the Israel General Security Services to allow citizens of the UAE to visit Israel. A week or so ago, Dubai allowed a visit by an official Israeli delegation, and two Israeli officials participated there in an international conference on the environment.

Moreover, the President of the UAE, Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Aal Nahyan, has met with Abu Mazin, the President of the Palestinian Authority. This meeting, soon after Hamas’s electoral sweep in the Palestine section of Israel/Palestine, revealed a possible mediation by the UAE between Israel and Abu Mazin. This mediation could be meant to weaken Hamas in the long run.

The UAE’s flirtation with Israel has some roots in geopolitics. A deep current of suspicion characterizes the relations between the UAE and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran had occupied three islands which the UAE asserts belong to it. (See earlier article in this newsletter about the subject.) Too, the UAE has lost the protection which once Arab Iraq afforded it against Iran. Any replacement of that protection, albeit from afar and likely ineffective, is welcome.


BACK TO THE IRANIAN NEWS ITEM

What a statement! My take on it (and please consider my take with a grain of salt) is that this is a threat against the UAE. Who is the ‘Aat, after all? The word Emirates in Arabic transliterates as Imarat. It ends with the sound “aat” as does the reference in the Iranian news item.

Bluntly: Iran is saying that it has someone who has information about important officials in the UAE who knew in advance about the upcoming September 11 horrific criminal bombings. Iran is in effect sending a message to the UAE that its warming relations with Israel, meant mostly to defuse Congressional opposition to its investments in the United States, will beget a revelation from Iran that would be so explosive as to damage Congressional relations with the UAE–forever. The allegation of course loses much of its potency with the inclusion of the Mosad.

Will it work?

Depends on whether in fact the Iranians have a credible personality who knew something about some UAE emirs who colluded with Osama bin Laden in the September 11 horror attacks, and who either held official positions or were related to the ruling families.

It shows the Iranians to be savvy enough to know how to stoke an American fire about a possible collusion by one or some UAE officials. This proposition might sway an American public which the Bush Administration had taken to war against Arabs. But it also shows the Iranians to be silly enough to include Mosad, which hardly anyone among U.S. opinion makers or among the public would believe knew about September 11 yet chose not to warn the United States.