DAMNING THE ARAB SHIA: SAUDI ARABIA TO REVERSE THEIR RISE

verytroughdraft (I’m really rushing this through.)

It hit me after writing the last post that Saudi policy, though seemingly accommodative towards Iran, in only superficially so. I think the Saudis are going full steam against Iran. They’re doing that by pursuing a systematic policy of containing the new-found political power of the Arab Shia, then clipping that power. Their tools:

(1) the American troops in Iraq;

(2) the infusion of dollars into the pockets of cooperating regional leaders; and

(3) (quite possibly soon) the Peshmerga.

NO ABILITY TO FIGHT

Saudi Arabia doesn’t have the qualified troops to face off with Iran or even lesser states. The only sector of the Saudi populace which is capable of fighting resides outside the state structure. You guessed it: it’s al-Qaeda. What’s within the state structure has never really shown its fighting worth. The royal family has not wanted to develop competent armed forces lest these stage a coup against the family. (I think the new regional realities will show them to have made a grievous mistake.)

So, in essence, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and all the other Gulf protectorates now use the U.S. troops to achieve their goals in Iraq.

REVERSING THE NEW POWER OF THE ARAB SHIA

The Shia Fadhila party in Iraq recently quit the Shia (SCIRI-dominated) United Iraqi Coalition. This seems to be part of the Saudi strategy of clipping the wings of the Arab Shia who are allied to Iran.--by dividing them. The Fadhila announcement came during (possibly at the very end) of a tour of Sunni Arab nations by Ayad Allawi, the man who is perceived as a CIA asset. One can safely conclude that a lot of money went into the Fadhila pockets–Kuwaiti and Saudi– via Mr. Allawi.

PUT THE KURDS ON THE SAUDI PAYROLL

And now we hear about a Saudi invitation to Masoud Barazani, one of the two main leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan, to visit Saudi Arabia. (The other leader, Jalal Talabani, is ill and still is recuperating at a Jordanian hospital.) The Kurds, Sunni but not Arab, have been a cornerstone of the U.S.-Israeli push to castrate Arab Iraq, and still are to neutralize the Islamic Republic. My suspicion is that the Kurdish leaders made billions from the American taxpayer. Saudi Arabia, floating on so much oil money, is taking over from the Americans, made bankrupt by the harmful idiots–both the Wolfowitzs (let’s obsess over how to castrate Arabs) and the Bush (let’s provide tax cuts, yet wage a careless and expensive war--all to get elected.)

Why would Saudi Arabia invite Mr. Barazani?

Because, as with Fadhila, this was yet another move to encircle the Arab Shia of Iraq. The idea would be:

–to evolve an anti-Iran Sunni-Shia front in Iraq, headed by Ayad Allawi (Shia but secular) to clip the wings of the Arab Shia populists (Sadr) and tame the power of Iran agents’ (Abdel-Aziz Hakim and Daawa); and

--to enroll the Peshmerga as a private army to achieve their policy goals, especially should the Americans withdraw.

(Why would Maliki go along with a strategy that’s anti-Iranian? Think money–lots of it. Think, too, that he probably is planning for a life in San Diego, fishing off the Mission Bay pier, when all of this fails. By the way, Allawi is better than others; he’s secular and that’s great.
But he had helped put an end to secularism in the Middle East. He is, after all, a harmful idiot.)

HOW TO PUT U.S. TROOPS TO USE

U.S. troops are essential for the Saudi strategy to succeed. They have driven away Sadr and his commanders in what, for now, looks like a success.

The Saudi payoff for the use of U.S. troops is the Saudi ("Arab") peace proposal for Israel. Bandar bin Sultan was in Washington on or about March 12, as was Israel’s foreign minister. The Arab press is abuzz with news about coordination between the two for a Saudi ("Arab") peace proposal which would be acceptable to Israel. Too, an Arab summit should take place soon in Riyadh where the Saudi-formulated peace proposal will become an Arab one, thanks in good part for the mucho money which should flow into the Arab leaders’ bank accounts.

THE ARAB SHIA BACKLASH

You can see the gathering Shia backlash. Last Friday, A sheikh known to be a member of SCIRI, in a Friday sermon in Najaf, accused the British of trying to bring the Baathists back to power. These were fighting words. For now, attacks on British bases in and around Basra have been limited in impact. One should expect these to intensify as the Saudi plan to encircle the Arab Shia evolves.

What to expect. Thinking out loud, I would imagine:

--That the Shia arch-enemies, SCIRI and the Mahdi Army, should be trying to pull together with the help of Iran as mediator.

--That the Shia may take over the mantle of sectarian massacres. Why? This would be their way of splitting the American ancillary armies--the troops which the U.S./Allawi/Jordan camp can rely on and which are not infiltrated by the Shia militias. Sectarian massacres, if intense enough, will split any and all armies.

--That the Shia may take over the mantle of operations against U.S. and British troops and their ancillary armies. The question here is: how and where? Again, thinking out loud, I would imagine the south is where most of this will happen. Hence perhaps the decision by Tony Blair to start pulling out some of the British troops, and concentrate the rest away from cities.


All in all, the Saudi plan should strengthen Iran’s hand as it would place an insurgency so close to Kuwait, practically an American base in the region. In addition, it should take the Shia-Sunni rift to higher levels not only in Iraq but, too, in Saudi Arabia. (In Saudi Arabia, such will take forms meant to draw the attention of the world human rights and liberal communities to the plight of the Shia.) Peace with Israel, imperfect as it’ll certainly be, should provide the new de facto Arab Shia state in the south (and Iran) fodder to keep the bridges open to the Arab Street. Especially that the Arab Shia of Iraq are as literate as any other Arab.

PLUS CA CHANGE...

And so, my fellow Americans, we will have to decide whether to suppress the Shia insurgency in the south, as Saddam Hussein, the Arab friend the harmful idiots lynched, once did.

We have no friends. Only assets with an endless appetite for our (less valuable) money

Plus ca change...