TARGET: KUWAIT (Updated)

a-tired-BUT-MUCH-IMPROVED-sort-of-seconf-draft

INTRODUCTION

The harmful idiots now will need to find a new (idiotic) scheme to manage what could become a new reality for Kuwait. Here’s a layout of how this new reality could emerge, a by-product of the regional disarray and realignment.

THE HARMFUL IDIOTS ASSIST MUQTADHA

As they spread the troops across Baghdad, and find little resistance (as I write, seven troops were killed!), the harmful idiots beam, though they qualify it by saying, "It’s too early." Unaware of the reality that they’re now servicing not only their Israel and the Gulf countries, but Muqtadha as-Sadr himself.

This is a great time for Muqtadha, a time to vet those who follow the orders of his chain of command against those who don’t. Unwitting American troops are performing this task for him, which helps him avoid shedding intra-Mahdi blood. U.S. troops, being deployed by political and strategic harmful idiots, will finish the renegades within the ranks of the Mahdi Army. Free of charge. Those Mahdi Army commanders left should be the good ones–the ones who follow Sadr’s chosen chain of command; the ones who disappeared on orders, getting trained, and should re-emerge on orders; the ones who should be as good an army as Lebanon’s Hizbollah.

ANOTHER SERVICE, FREE-OF-CHARGE, BY THE HARMFUL IDIOTS TO MUQTADHA AND HAKIM

The idiots are providing Muqtadha and Iran’s agent Hakim yet another service: they’re finishing for them their enemies in the Anbar province. All on the assumption that those parties in the Arab Sunni resistance which are willing to deal with the Americans (e.g., the Islamic Army of Iraq, and some clans) can win the intra-Sunni civil war. Highly unlikely. The more likely result of the intra-Sunni civil war should be the general weakening of the Iraqi Arab Sunni, politically and militarily, as happened to the Christian Arabs of Lebanon.

Weakened and exhausted, the Iraqi Arab Sunni should become better disposed to accept the eventual flirtatious calls from the Shia state in the south. What choice do they have? Their own Arab Sunni brothers in Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia had colluded against them, stabbed them in the back, repeatedly, willingly and gladly.

In contrast, their Iraqi brothers and sisters, Shia but Iraqi, would by far be a better bet for the future than the leaders of the Gulf countries. The latter hoard the billions in foreign bank accounts while the Iraqi Arab Sunni eat dirt. It’s up to the Mahdi Army and SCIRI; it's their call: whether they can, once the Iraqi Arab Sunni self-defeat (with the help of the Jordanians and the Saudis), find a formula to accommodate them. Sharing their oil with them and re-directing their attention towards Israel and Kuwait (see below) will probably be some of the venues the southern Shia will take to bring back their brethren into an Iraqi fold.

THE SAUDI/AMERICAN PLAN: THE AMERICANS AS PROTECTORS OF THE ARAB SUNNI OF IRAQ. (added)

The Saudi/American hope is that the Arab Sunni of Iraq would adopt the Americans as their protectors. Such would provide the occupation army an Arab ally in the center of the country from where to conduct operations to subdue the rest of it. To reverse the clock, so to speak. In addition, the new-found positive relationship would improve America's tattered and anti-Muslim image in the Arab Sunni and Sunni worlds. But it's too late for that. The harmful idiots have let way too many genies out of the bottle. The young generation which has taken over the mantle of Iraqi resistance to the Americans, al-Qaeda-influenced or not, is unlikely to want to accept protection by the Americans and a return to the status quo ante. In other words, this younger generation wants to lead the country, not return to its former submissive state.

Acoordingly, to implement the plan (the-Americans-as-protectors-of-the-Arab-Sunni), U.S. troops will need to finish the young resisters (aka al-Qaedah) once and for all. The escalation in troops therefore is meant to subdue this generation, while the naval buildup is meant to deter Iran from spoiling the plan.

But Iran has a more solid card: the Shia. It wouldn't surprise me therefore if the Shia unleash their ire on the Americans, forcing them to face two insurgencies at the same time: the one of the Arab Sunni young; and the Shia.

ANOTHER AMERICAN ILLUSION: IRAQI POLITICS ARE WHAT THEY APPEAR TO BE.

Meanwhile, the harmful idiots and the Saudis are laboring under yet another illusion. Their horse, Ayad Allawi, the CIA man who is favored by the Kuwaiti and the Saudis–and now probably financed by them–is doing politics under the awfully misguided assumption that the current political framework in Iraq is what it appears to be at the surface. It’s not. As if his Saudi/U.S./Kuwait-sponsored new coalition, for instance, or attempts at one (reel in Fadhila and the Kurds---Barazani, returning from Saudi Arabia, assured the southern Shia that he’s not changing course; not enough Saudi billions?) will be able to regain Iraq’s south. As if this proposed new coalition will have any real popular base, but a broken Arab Sunni community, living off the bread crumbs from the Saudis, the Kuwaiti, and the Emirati. (Guess who welcomed Allawi at the Riyadh airport? Muqrin bin Abdel Aziz, the head of Saudi intelligence. Not Saud al-Faisal, the foreign minister. Secret governments-by-intelligence-services, all the way!)

All in all, an idiotic Saudi-Jordanian-American plan built on illusions. Too many parties want to defeat it.

A DEFEAT FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Democrats, led by Hillary, are making sure the defeat of the American extreme right wing in Iraq is, too, a defeat for the Democrats. Blame it in part on Hillary’s need for her Jewish constituency, since a good part of that constituency is mobilized around the idea that staying in Iraq is good for the security of Israel.

Incredibly, the Democrats are adopting the right-wing historic defeat as their own under the dubious claim that the U.S., non-Arab speaking, motivated by such non-Arab issues as Israel’s welfare, can in fact balance the power of a Muslim country. That country has evolved an extension of itself, Arabic-speaking, in southern Iraq and in Sadr City. And it is able to do it because the idiots and their puppets, the Jordanians and the Saudis, have ignited the Sunni-Shia rift as a means of containing the Islamic Republic (for the U.S.) and the Shia (for the Saudis).

(The Jordanians do things for American money. They have no oil. Only some phosphate, Petra, Wadi Roum, and stunning Roman ruins. In addition, they have one of the best cheap street food, coffee, and tea I’ve ever had. But tourism is not to be, not with the harmful idiots’ endless schemes for the region. Regional crisis therefore are the Jordanians’ bread and olive oil. It’s they–the Jordanians and the U.S.–who pushed Muqtadha fully–no longer tactically-- into the arms of the Iranians! (They know what I’m talking about. Refer to earlier post, "Who did it?")

But the harmful idiots (through the Jordanians and the Saudis) should push the sectarian envelop to their own detriment. The more they push it, the more entrenched Iran becomes among the Arab Shia. The less they push it, the more entrenched Iran becomes among the Arab Street.

That country–Iran--can, too, support the Arab opposition, exposing the reactionary soul of the harmful idiots, who are supporting treasonous regimes which had colluded with the idiots and the Israelis against their own. Not to mention that the Iranians can sponsor websites which, with some embellishment, would reveal how the rulers of these countries are stealing their people’s resources blind.

For the idiots: Win to lose; lose to lose.

SOLUTION: ATTACK IRAN. NOT

Oh, so you think that attacking Iran will resolve this dilemma. Think again. You can’t, can you. I know, dear. You’re idiots with severely limited talents. Badly you want to eliminate an Israel foe, don’t you? Oh dear. Console yourselves: you have great-paying jobs and great pensions, all in exchange for idiotic schemes. You send unwitting young men and women to die for oil and Israel while you hang out in safety, having your right wing Arab and Muslim-hating Judeo-Christian "minds" at all these institutes you finance write up a storm about this and that. Good for you. You, after all, in your own petty ways, are smarter than many–certainly I. (Or is it me? To quote Hyacinth Bucket.)

This newsletter has said it a long time ago: that the Iranians and the Syrians, following Iraq, by necessity , sheer common sense, and basic intelligence, must’ve evolved a self-defense scheme. This scheme would "disintegrate" the state, so to speak. The Iranian and the Syrian states, once "disintegrated" after attack, should fight a guerrilla war against U.S. troops, commanded by the idiots. Lesser attacks by the U.S. should beget lesser operations, miniature Tet-like, enough to tire out the U.S. army and the public. A larger attack which disturbs Iran in a significant fashion should beget a significant Tet-like retaliation.

Concomitant: a larger anti-war domestic backlash.

A FIGHTING MAHDI ARMY

This newsletter had predicted, following the confrontation between the Mahdi Army and U.S. troops in 2004 (I believe), that Muqtadha would seek out the help of Lebanon’s Hizbollah to train it for its next confrontation with U.S. troops. Common sense, right?

The Mahdi Army will confront these troops when it’s ready, as when the U.S. bombs Iran. A huge Tet-like offensive should erupt, which would include weapons meant to disable the new tanks the U.S. recently acquired from Israel–yet another opportunity for the Americans , the Israelis, and the Russians to test their weapons on Arab soil.

(The idiots can’t seem to understand–I need a megaphone--that their flouting of their alliance with Israel–as in purchasing weapons from it to use against Arabs and Muslims-- is a leaden weight to sink them. They can’t appreciate that conventional weapons are nearly out. Politics and inexpensive weapons have been in for quite a while now. (I know: these don’t create jobs and profits.))

In case of a Tet-like offensive, the U.S. will need one million troops, or will need to withdraw in defeat. Or bring in the one million troops, then withdraw in defeat.

THE NEW SHIA STATE SHOULD GO AFTER KUWAIT

The new de facto Shia state in the south will evolve with little division. While Jordan and Saudi Arabia work hard to divide the Arab Sunni in Iraq, political and religious Iran are assuring that Sadr and Hakim work together. Sadr will be Hizbollah-like, and Hakim Amal-like. Sadr as the youthful organization of young fighters, "the best army in the world," and SCIRI as the old Shia rebels, now mature, politically savvy, and less cult-like. (I doubt Mahdi will ever be able to achieve the incredible level of secrecy that Hizbollah had.)

The two will build bridges to the other Iraqis. They don’t need to, but politics is such that when one Shia Iraqi nationalist voice is raised, other voices will compete, so not to be outbid. (Get it?) It’s unthinkable to me anyway that the de facto Shia state in the south will ever not want to re-unite in one Iraq. I assure you this is not wishful thinking or illusion.

To reach the other Arabs of Iraq, the micro-Shia Iraq in the south, bordering Kuwait, can use a few slogans to re-build the bridges with their Arab Sunni brothers:

(1) Israel. Its occupation of Arab lands and the perceived dispatch of the American army into Iraq by Israel’s people in the United States. The mobilizing value of this issue should lose much of it potency once the U.S. withdraws, as Israel is far away. Unless, of course, the U.S. keeps contingents in Iraq (the Hillary plan), in which case this issue will remain potent.

(2) United Iraq. A beacon of Islamic Arab nationalism, with a Shia willingness to share generously the oil revenues of the south with the Arab Sunni. Again, ,this would require a radical change of thinking on the part of the SCIRI people. (I’m confident Mahdi would change much more willingly.) Iran, Syria (and Russia?) would have to force their hand. The Arab Sunni would be too weak to resist the allure of this patriotic mission, even though the new Iraq would be led by the Shia. But, should they evolve a consensus, Shia rule could be a source of power since these have the numbers to re-unite the country. In this framework, Arab Shia and Arab Sunni would focus on returning to the fold the Kurdish part of the country, the de facto state in the north. The Kurds would definitely not want to return willingly. But their association with the Israelis (and the Americans) should give terrific elan to the United Iraq issue, as it would weld to the Israel issue.

(3) Kuwait. Say what?

Kuwait, if it follows the Saudi princes’ lead to cozy up to Israel–only if-- will be used as a uniting slogan. Kuwait, after all, was a main aider of the harmful idiots in the entrapment of Saddam Hussein, and later occupation of Iraq by American troops. Earlier, Iraq had fought an 8-year war in part to defend Kuwait, at a terrific cost in blood–both Shia and Sunni--and treasure. Yet the Kuwaiti royals, scheming with the idiots, left Iraq in a state of abject poverty, while they built palaces and married many women. Animosity towards Kuwait might just be (one of) the pill (s) the doctor has ordered to help bridge the differences between the Iraqi Arabs: Arab Sunni and Arab Shia, yet not antagonize Iran. Think German revanchists.

Currently, the Kuwaiti are playing it safe: They are accommodating the Islamic Republic while drawing yet closer to the British. That might work for a while, though they should be aware, shouldn’t they, that the Brits can’t protect anyone. If anything, their association with them should draw the ire of the Islamic Republic. Though, for now, this Republic, is patient until such time as the regional picture clears up.

Should the revanchists, both Arab Sunni and Shia, draw together, even Iran might not be able to provide protection for the Kuwaiti, especially if these adopt the Saudi plan to draw closer to Israel. The new Shia-led state will never make the mistake of invading Kuwait. It’ll tire it out, and drain it. You know the rest.

Here, one should not forget that around a quarter fo Kuwait’s population is Shia. These should like to see their Iraqi brothers draw closer to the Sunni of Iraq, as such would give them better leverage in their political life in Kuwait itself. A successful Iraqi Shia-Sunni union would only strengthen their hand inside Kuwait.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Expect Kuwait to cozy up to Syria, Iran’s Arab ally, which now has drawn even closer to Iran, what with twelve recently signed memos of understanding. (Though they haven't signed a mutual defense treaty, for all purposes, Iran and Syria now have one.) Arab Syria would be Kuwait’s safety valve against the stratagem of the new southern Shia state to turn Kuwait into the object of Iraqi Arab hate. Expect Kuwaiti (protection) money to flow to Syria. Expect Kuwaiti subjects to flood Syria to spend their summers. Expect Kuwait to seek out more Sunni to come to Kuwait, a la Bahrain. (Already Kuwaiti leaders are making congratulatory statements to the unity government in Palestine--a precursor of their wish to heal a precious Sunni-Sunni relationship, and possibly bring in more Sunni into their Emirate to overwhelm the Kuwaiti Shia.)

But don’t expect all of these smart self-preservation moves if the harmful idiots have the iron-clad control over the Kuwaiti intelligence services, which I suspect they do.

That’s how the idiots (and Kuwaiti intelligence) got us in trouble in the first place.