THE GULF OF PERSIA ARREST-O-LUTION*

(To rhyme with "The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.")


yetanotherroughdraft with and update

UPDATE--5/19/07

The more I think about the Iranian divers' incident (see below) the more I realize that the Bush Administration is stuck in the mode of thinking that has proven so disastrous. It seems that the war this administration is fighting isn't in the Middle East but here, on the home front.

Superficially, the Bush Administration seems to have not given up on the idea of mobilizing the American public into waging a full-scale war on Iran. To that end, the harmful idiots have been making use of the various Arab government institutions they control--military and intelligence. Gulf Arab governments have given the harmful idiots near-total freedom to operate within these institutions. These harmful ones have used this freedom mostly to try to entrap Iran into a war with the United States.

Superficially, again, the idea is to mobilize the American public to accept a long-term war on Iran. But is this really what's going on? Has this been thought out? It couldn't have been, since Iraq has shown that order is way preferable to chaos, and better serves America's interest and the interest of the regional allies. A war with Iran should spread chaos over a much wider area of the Middle East and the Gulf.

Unless the Bush Administration is aching for a limited gun fight with the Islamic Republic, and not a full-scale war. For purely electoral reasons? To energize the right-wing base of the Republican Party? Use American blood and treasure to improve a political party's chances in elections?

We should all be thankful that the Iranians are smart.

A GULF OF PERSIA (to rhyme with "Gulf of Tonkin") INCIDENT

On or about May 7, 2007, the Navy of the United Arab Emirates arrested twelve Iranian divers off the contested island of Abu Musa. This took place days before the arrival in the UAE on a state visit of the Iranian President, as if to torpedo that visit, and the expected visit of Vice President Cheney.

To understand the immediate reasons behind the arrest of the Iranian divers it helps to place the matter into the wider contest--the ceaseless effort by the Bush Administration to mobilize–even regiment–the Arab Gulf countries into a solid anti-Iran front.

The "Gulf of Persia Arrest-O-lution" was likely a lame attempt by the harmful idiots to set up Iran. (The UAE now is a beehive filled with harmful idiots’ intelligence officers and Iranian "businessmen.") Should Iran have reacted violently, Ahmadi Nejad’s visit would've been cancelled. That would've eliminated competition to Mr. Cheney. The Gulf countries as a result would've opened their ears wider to Mr. Cheney’s instructions to them. Iran would've been such a scary and immediate threat, which would've made his job that much easier: to counsel/prod them to buttress their ranks in facing off with the Islamic Republic. Under the leadership of the harmful idiots, of course.

A fringe benefit: The U.S. Fifth Fleet (based in nearby Bahrain) could've become involved in defending the UAE, maybe enough to silence the domestic voices that want withdrawal from Iraq. Maybe even more: Rally-around-the-flag--rally around the Bush Administration.

AN OLD TRICK...TOO OLD.

It didn’t work. The Iranians are dumb. Not. They had witnessed the harmful idiots and Kuwaiti intelligence set up Saddam Hussein more than once, and they weren’t gonna fall for this. More recently, they’ve seen Saudi Arabia and Kuwait set them up–with the assistance of the harmful idiots. And they didn’t fall into these traps, either. (SPC' analysis--I believe-- was first to uncover these sophomoric attempts at entrapment! My apologies to sophomores.)

Why should Iran react to anything of the kind? Iran watches as the Bush Administration sinks deeper into the Iraq quagmire. And it’s tickled–justifiably.

CHENEY SPINS IN THE DESERT WINDS: THE SANCTIONS' GENERATION

Cheney lectures Maliki on the importance of reconciling with the Baathists.

What Baathists?

Earth to Cheney: Were you thinking of those Baathists whose leader you helped lynch? Or were you referring to the Baathists who now are on your payroll, via Jordan, the new (Sunni) Ahmad Jarabis? These, my dear, are no longer as influential as they once were. If anything, I'd say they're marginal--but for the occasional car bomb they can place here or there. The "sanctions’ generation"--the young ones you unleashed, who grew up under the American-championed sanctions--have their say too. And I suspect they hold the initiative. (Recently, on or about May 14, Iraqi officials admitted that Al Qaeda–likely made up mostly of the sanctions’ generation–is in control of the province of Diyali.)

WE’RE TOO AFFLUENT TO GO THROUGH A WAR

Across the board, the Gulf leaders–including those of the UAE–told Cheney that they didn’t want an American military confrontation with Iran. That, at least, was their public position. But to have the UAE Navy arrest the Iranian divers says that the UAE leadership either didn't have full control over its armed services or, more likely, that it was allowing the harmful idiots to operate relatively freely within these services. After all, the UAE was/is an American protectorate.

The public position was meant in part for Iranian consumption. They likely wouldn’t mind a war to weaken the Islamic Republic, but they would want that war to be waged from Iran’s opposite border, not from the one on the Perabasian Gulf. A sort of rich people daydreaming. At any rate, the Iranian divers were soon released and all was forgotten. The no-war position of the UAE and other Gulf countries, all in all, likely was genuine, especially if war were to be conducted from their side of the Gulf. Desalination provides the Gulf countries most of their water. A war could result in major pollution in the Perabesian Gulf. Too much to risk.

In addition, the income bonanza from high oil prices has afforded the Gulf Arabs a lifestyle that we can only dream of here in the United States. Fear of investing in the U.S. after September 11, lest the American government freezes this or that Gulf Arab account, has driven the Gulf Arabs to invest at home–or in such places as Turkey. Here’s an example: Bawadi, a project for a tourist hotel-convention center in Dubai, will cost an estimated $54 bn. It’s expected to be the largest of its kind in the world, and will include certainly the largest mall in the world.

The Gulf Arabs know that this affluence will be jeopardized should an American-Iranian war erupt. The money should run away to safety all over the globe.

TORPEDOING SAUDI EFFORTS

Not expecting any flexibility or creativity from the Bush Administration, the Gulf Arabs by now are waiting for a new administration, while humoring Rice and Cheney. Saudi Arabia, for instance, had come to terms with the idea that Hamas is here to stay and had engineered a smart Mecca Accord between that organization and the pro-Western Fatah. But the Bush Administration continues to support Israel’s sanctions against the occupied territories to fail the Hamas-Fatah unity government.

The result: Hamas re-took the initiative. It set off fighting with Fatah and launched rockets into Israel. Hamas wasn't about to capitulate to an embargo: intra-fighting confuses the issues so as to lift the blame of starvation off the shoulders of the Hamas leaders. Without the fighting, they almost certainly would've been blamed for the stop in cargo delivery--the starvation of the Palestinians. With the fighting, Fatah ends up sharing a part of the blame.

Israel starves the West Bank and Gaza, establishes de facto cantons in the former, and expects "Arab" understanding. But patience is running thin. One can sense the frustration of Saud Al-Faisal when he commented recently in Brussels that Israel should no longer expect to receive without giving. You can’t refuse to deal with Abu Mazin, weaken him as a result, see Hamas sweep elections (also as a result), reverse course to re-build Abu Mazin’s stature, while starving the Palestinians....and expect the Gulf Arabs to stand with Israel’s ally in the same trench, with enthusiasm, against Iran. Something's got to give.

SUBJUGATING SAUDI FOREIGN POLICY?

There’s a possibility that the harmful idiots are trying to strong arm the Saudis by re-opening in the U.S. the BAE Systems bribery investigation, which Tony Blair had killed in Britain. BAE Systems, the Pentagon’s largest foreign contractor–actually it seems to be a hybrid British-American company-- through which the Saudis had been passing protection money to the U.S.--had been under investigation by the Serious fraud Office (SFO) in the U.K. The SFO suspected the British-American company of bribing Saudi officials by transferring money into their bank accounts in Switzerland. The Saudi government placed heavy pressure on Tony Blair, threatening to cancel a gargantuan ($10bn-$70bn) arms deal. As a result, the SFO investigation came to an abrupt end.

Congressional staffers now are picking up the issue. It’s unclear whether this is an attempt by the harmful idiots to dominate Saudi foreign policy totally and fully. (Saudi foreign policy is fairly subjugated, but has been showing signs of independence recently–the Mecca Accord, the Sudan-Chad agreement-- thanks to the confidence borne out of extreme wealth and the paralysis of the U.S., sinking deeper into the quicksands of Iraq–and Iran.) Or whether the Congressional staffers are setting off something out of genuine concern.

In case the former: It should be abundantly clear to all that the Saudi public and elite likely already know who in their government had received the bribery money. Launching an investigation in the U.S. therefore would hardly result in any embarrassment in the kingdom. (The Kingdom’s yearly income is about $200 bn–so the opposition has all but nearly evaporated. When this newsletter began, that income had hovered around $55 bn., and the opposition was vibrant.) In addition, it’s relatively easy and credible to point the finger at the Israel lobby as being behind the congressional investigation, if one were launched–a tit-for-tat for the Mecca Accord.