SAUDI ARABIA TO SYRIA: SCREW YOU SHIA ALAWITES!

easeir to raed tihrd adn rlucantt ruhg draaatf–
tabloid enough for you?

GOOD EYE (FROM BASEBALL--I don't have it.)

It would take a "good eye" to spot the gloating by Khaled al-Gosaibi, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning, about the approval by the United Nations security council of the international tribunal to investigate the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister and Proxy-in-Chief in Lebanon of Saudi Arabia’s ruling family, the late Rafiq al-Hariri.

It seems that Saudi Arabia has managed to buy off Russia’s vote at the security council. Russia abstained, and its non-use of its veto has resulted in the establishment of a tribunal that should target no less than senior officials of the Syrian government–close allies of Russia.

It could be that Russia refrained from using its right to veto the resolution establishing the tribunal as a last straw to appeal to the U.S. The quid pro quo would be for the Bush Administration to refrain from setting up a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Still, it’s odd that Russia would use that particular venue, and no other, to appeal to the United States. Hence the likelihood that the Saudis had paid off the Russians–something eminently predicted by this newsletter.

(FLASHBACK:

Please refer to January 30 post, "The Bush Administration Uses Saudi Money to Pay Off the Russians." My mis-analysis then was about not appreciating the inching away by the now very wealthy Saudis in their foreign policy from the harmful idiots. I’ve caught on to that increasing independence in the April 30 post, "The harmful Idiots Unleash Jordan’s Prince Hasan Against the Saudis–a Correction."

In Lebanon, the tribunal was a place where the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and France found common interest. The harmful idiots meant to squeeze Syria to force its cooperation in Iraq; the Saudis meant to protect their tens of billions of dollars in loans and interest payments in Lebanon, including the public money that went straight into the pockets of their Proxy-in-Chief, the Hariri family; the French meant it to please Mr. Chirac, a beneficiary, it seems, of the Hariris and the Saudis.

And Lebanon was their field of violent dreams--all to avoid dealing with the real isssue. Dare I say what it is?)

A COUCHED MESSAGE TO SYRIA

Mr. Al-Gosaibi, speaking after a Saudi cabinet meeting on or about June 3/4, 2007, recited twenty zillion niceties about brotherhood and this and that. And then, couched in all this affected and empty talk, was the surprise. His hope, he said, was that UNSC Resolution 1757 (the tribunal) would put an end to the assassinations in Lebanon.

You could read this and not see anything in it. The Lebanese daily, As-Safir (Arab nationalist/left/Shia ) is VERY careful about criticizing Saudi Arabia–it just doesn’t do it. As-Safir in its online edition published al-Gosaibi’s announcement in the form of a seemingly innocuous but visible headline on its front page. The headline wasn’t specific. It was about the Saudi cabinet meeting and announcement, without deciphering that announcement to us. It may have missed its importance; but I doubt it. I’ve interpreted for Talal Salman, As-Safir's editor-in-chief, in the past. He is as shrewd a politico as Abdel Bari Atwan, the editor-in-chief of al-Quds al-Arabi. In addition, both are businessmen who seem to know how to keep their newspapers well oiled. Get it?

Did as-Safir place the Saudi cabinet announcement on the front page because, as with most Arab newspapers, it’s getting a slice of Saudi Arabia’s $200 billion yearly income? Or did it do it to have some readers note the animosity between Saudi Arabia and Syria?

I believe it’s the latter. I think that al-Gosaibi was gloating, and Talal Salman saw it but wasn’t about deciphering it for concern about repercussions--to the welfare of his newspaper? Mr. Al-Gosaibi was telling Syria that Saudi Arabia has stolen Russia away from it, and that any more assassinations in Lebanon would only expand the agenda of the tribunal, with little effort and possibly without need for a new vote–and the concomitant risk of a Russian veto. That the establishment of the tribunal should chill Syria and stop it from sponsoring assassinations of the well-oiled proxies of Saudi Arabia in poor, non-oiled, and interest-paying Lebanon.

"We robbed you of Russia, and we will bring you down, you bunch of f------Shia Alawites," seems to be what Mr. Al-Gosaibi really wanted to say.

CAREFUL: A MINEFIELD

Careful what you wish for, Mr. Al-Gosaibi! You could end up with a radical government in Syria , all-Sunni, all al Qaeda, and therefore way more appealing in the land of the Haramain al-Sharifayn. The harmful idiots have destabilized the region dangerously enough and have created thousands upon thousands of orphans. Enough destabilization.

Careful, too. For explosions in Lebanon are relatively easy to synchronize.

Careful: for Syria can develop a system to streamline Lebanese transit commerce via its border with Lebanon. (Closing off the border's entry points would threaten the popularity of Syria's own proxies and those of Iran in Lebanon. But streamlining the cross-border commerce, crucial for the survival of many in Lebanon, to favor pro-Syrian Lebanese, could strengthen Syria's hand in Lebanese domestic politics.)

Careful, too, in using your humongous amounts of oil money, for it’s relatively easy to finance Saudi Shia opposition, mostly overseas, of course. With the increasingly independent course Saudi foreign policy is taking–buddy-ing up to Russia and splitting away from the U.S.–some of the financing of this opposition might come from the harmful idiots. A means of subduing the Saudi body politic--FULLY--to play an active role in the confrontation with Iran.

Careful.