SCORE YET MORE CIVIL WARS FOR THE HARMFUL IDIOTS. ATTEMPTED REALIGNMENTS IN IRAQ?

third draft

WITHDRAWING

The talk now is about how to withdraw from Iraq. One missing ingredient in this talk is that neither the harmful idiots nor any influential country is working to bring into Iraq troops organized by the United Nations, if only to build fortified camps inside the country to protect refugees.

The U.N. already has expressed its intent to return to Iraq. But what’s needed is not only an administrative/humanitarian return. Needed are U.N. troops to establish protected camps. These camps should be havens for the civilians who will be displaced by the raging civil wars, once he harmful idiots order U.S. troops to withdraw.

CIVIL WAR: PALESTINE

These civil wars in Iraq will be taking place in a country that many believe is the heart of the Arab World. Iraq is the very heart of Arabism. Congratulations to the Israelis and the American Jewish Right. They got what they wanted.

Engineering civil wars, purposely but mostly by harmful idiocy, is nothing new for the harmful idiots. They’re now working hard for a civil war in Palestine. They may succeed, especially if Saudi King Abdallah doesn’t exert the pressure necessary to force Fatah to accept partnership with Hamas. It’ll be difficult for the King, for many reasons:


First, Mr. Abbas, to obtain cargo, is placing himself at the mercy not of an Arab power, but of Israel and the harmful idiots. (The Sadat phenomenon.)

Second, Saudi intelligence and the princes may just be swimming in yet another slush fund meant to enrich the princes, screw Iran and, along the way, screw Hamas and Syria and cause yet more misery in Lebanon and Palestine. In other words, Saudi intelligence seems to be running the real foreign policy of the Kingdom, one where the King is given a limited role (visit here, smile there) while Saudi intelligence goes its own way in coordinating with Israel and the United States.

Third, some scandal could erupt about a secret meeting between the Saudi King and a senior Israeli official during the king’s recent visit to Jordan. Such would diminish Saudi influence significantly.

All in all, signs are present that the Saudis, in spite of alleged differences with the harmful idiots (e.g., the Mecca Accord), are nonetheless coordinating closely with them and the Israelis. On or about July 10, 2007, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert was allowed to target an address to Syria's President Bashar al-Asad using al-Arabiyyah, the Saudi satellite television station formed to compete with Qatar’s al-Jazeerah. This appearance added quite a lot of credibility to the this blog’s speculation that the Saudi king may after all have met with a senior Israeli official on his visit to Amman. It would take a decision at the King’s level to allow for an Israeli Prime Minister, one who's starving Arab and Muslim Gaza, and torpedoing the Mecca Accord (allegedly dear to the Saudis), to appear on Saudi television and make a flirtatious address to Syria. This was nothing less than a Saudi-Israeli message to Syria, that the two are now coordinating closely, that they are in the same trench facing off with Iran. Another sign of coordination: On or about July 17, 2007, Saudi Arabia praised President Bush’s initiative to re-start the peace initiative his administration had for so long dismissed. The non Saudi-financed Arab press (usually financed by Qatar or Iran) was abuzz with speculation that the proposed peace conference was meant to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and not to create a Palestinian state.

I don’t know where the Saudis think they're going with all of this. It’s one thing to have the Palestinians and the Syrians wrap up a peace agreement with Israel. It’s another altogether for the Saudis to jump over the starved, oppressed, and humilated Palestinians, the agonizing Lebanese, and the occupation for four decades of the Arab Joulan and its colonization, to effect peace with Israel on behalf of the entire Arab World. Is it because the Kingdom has so much money that it’s swimming in a false sense of confidence? And all of that to contain Iran? Saudi Arabia plays up to Iran by coordinating with it on Lebanon, yet it makes every move possible to screw it in the not-so-hidden agenda to form an all-Sunni front to contain it. Don’t the Saudi decision-makers realize that the Islamic Republic is way too sophisticated and alert (and on war footing)to fall for the silly act by Saudi Arabia? Serious: How sophomoric can Saudi decision-makers be? Is the royal family (since, in the end, the blame will be on that family and not on the intelligence service or the incongruous--superficially, as in an act-- Saudi government) willing to take on all the bitterness and hatred of the Palestinians, the Lebanese and the Sunni Arab Street--the bitterness and hatred which are bound to follow the imperfect peace agreement they’re working for? Any peace agreement that doesn’t return all Arab land (1967) and pay reparations to the Palestinians and to Lebanon? Not a few million dollars here, a few there from what’s left over from slush funds in the Kingdom. I’m talking about real long-term money from Germany, and Europe. The Saudis are taking on more than they can chew, if one looks long-term. Israel should be made to go through the Arab parties most affected by its policies, not jump over their heads to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the U.A.E.


(Note: The Saudis, the harmful idiots and all involved should stop thinking that the Islamists are only a tool of Islamic Iran. The Islamists have terrific popular support, if only because they’ve introduced relative non-corruption to the Middle East. This relative freedom from corruption is a revolutionary phenomenon. What will come after the Islamists, should these be “defeated” --a huge if-- will certainly not be a warm adoption of the United States and Israel. It’ll likely be yet a higher level of secret and sophisticated organizing, inspired by religion, and meant to defeat those who defeated the non-corrupt elements in Arab society. It’ll mean terror galore.)

CIVIL WAR: LEBANON

Fortunately for Lebanon’s exhausted population, the harmful idiots have all but given up on civil wars in that country, especially intra-Shia. They’ve failed, miserably. In Lebanon, their efforts have backfired. Syria scored a major success when it turned the harmful idiots/Jordanian intelligence/Saudi intelligence dumb Sunni solidarity campaign against the campaign’s Lebanese sponsors: the non-Islamist corrupt proxies of the Saudis and the harmful idiots.

On a wider scale, to refresh the reader's memory, those working under the umbrella of the harmful idiots, by launching the Sunni solidarity campaign to contain Iran and the Arab Shia, have conceded the Arab Shia to Iran. Congrats to Iran. The Islamic Republic doesn’t seem to need to do much to multiply its power. The harmful idiots are willing to serve (conquer Arab Iraq) as are the Saudi and Jordanian intelligence services (the Sunni solidarity campaign.) Israel meanwhile does what Israel does best–trade intelligence–including with the Saudis, intelligence such as the social security number, fingerprints, DNA profile, and all sorts of personal information about the editor of this blog.

FINESSING LEBANESE POLITICS

Syria scored big in Lebanon, yet again. Nahr al-Bared was a masterpiece of political retaliation against the campaign for an all-Sunni front to contain Iran and the Arab Shia and isolate Syria from its Arab environment. Here’s why: Soldiers in the Lebanese army mostly serve in their region of residence, a way to lessen the cost of commuting for the soldiers and to allow them to help out in tending their orchards, caring for their families, saving on rent, and so on of other savings. Lebanon’s north is predominately Sunni. The army there is too. Igniting trouble in the Palestinian camp of Nahr al-Bared, located in the north, would mean that most of those killed would be Sunni–predominately Sunni troops fighting exclusively Sunni Islamists at the camp, a number of whom come from Lebanon’s north, Tripoli in particular. If you haven’t noticed, Sunni politicians in the north (e.g., Karami–no reputation for corruption--and Miqati) haven’t said much about the Nahr al-Bared affair. Why? Their constituencies are fighting each other! The Christian soldiers whose towns of origins are located in the northern Akkar region (Qubayyat, ‘Andqit, Shadrah) mostly reside in the Jounieh area and work out of the nearby Sarba barracks. Hence the relative un-involvement of these in the Nahr al-Bared battles.

Compare and contrast with Ain el-Helweh, in Saida, in the south, a predominately Shia region, though the city of Saida is predominately Sunni. Should Syria and its allies have ignited trouble there, the Lebanese troops attending to the trouble would’ve been predominately Shia. And Ain el-Helweh is way more troublesome and would be a far more deadly challenge to the Lebanese army than Nahr al-Bared. Isbat al-Ansar, Jund el-Sham, Islamic Fatah, you name it...they’re all there. Pitting predominately-Shia Lebanese troops against the Palestinian, Lebanese, and other Sunni Islamists in Ain el-Helweh could turn into a Shia (Lebanese army)-Sunni (Palestinian and other Islamists) mini civil war. That would empty into the campaign by the Lebanese proxies of the Saudis and the harmful idiots–the ones who were able to rob the public purse by promising a peace treaty with Israel. I’m not saying it couldn’t be done. It could , especially if it can be staged as a battle within Ain el-Helweh between Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah (now funded, I suspect, by Hariri and the Saudis in the hope that it would become a Hariri millitia and balance out Hizbollah) and the Sunni Islamists in the camp. Still, it’d been a risky gamble. Nahr al-Bared was way safer.


CIVIL WARS: THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE HARMFUL IDIOTS.

Igniting civil wars is the modus operandi of the harmful idiots and their reactionary allies. They had destroyed already one Arab country, Lebanon. They destroyed it to avoid the formation of a Palestinian state so that the apple of their eye could bask in the glory of its Hey-I-Can-Be-A-Base-For-Imperial-Aggression-Against-Arabs-And-Use-the-Right-Wing-Within-My-Diaspora-For-The-Same-Can-You-Give-Me-Some-Cargo(strategic alliance) victory in the six-day war. Neither the harmful idiots nor the apple of their eye, both full of themselves, would look beyond the immediate future. The harmful idiots went into Iraq with the same attitude, borrowed from Israel’s right wing and its colonialists: arrogant, self-styled superior, full of themselves. They had bought into the fiction that Israel was superior to Arabs and Muslims. They had failed to consider that Israel had scrammed from Lebanon with its tail between its legs, all thanks to a little political party called Hizbollah. That party used such simple methods as road-side bombs and suicide bombings. (Earth to harmful idiots: Do these methods ring a bell? Iraq, maybe?) Hizbollah did it patiently, conducting a war of liberation that spanned nearly two decades. Instead of mulling over the experience of the apple of their eye in south Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s, the harmful idiots took us into a huge defeat in Iraq, so full of themselves about their expensive war technology. And such defeat is not without repercussions.

DEFEAT: NO ONE OF SIGNIFICANCE NOW LISTENS TO THE HARMFUL IDIOTS.

(Note: I find the Financial Times’ coverage of the intricacies of the energy wars to be quite adequate. I would've liked to have access to the petroleum publications; but I don't; they’re too expensive.)

Consider the following:

1. Turkey, once a reliable ally, thinks we’ve become a burden. Not only have we stoked the fires of Kurdish nationalism, which threatens the unity of its territory or, at a minimum, the country’s stability; we did it to an extent that seems rather difficult to reverse.

Turkey has recently told off American policy-makers who had objected to a memorandum of understanding between it and Iran. The memo would entail the construction of a natural gas pipeline between Iran and Turkey for the benefit of the European markets. The backlash in Ankara against the American opposition was loud and widespread. Turkey, the harmful idiots were told, will do what is in its national interest.


2. Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, ignoring opposition by the United States, have agreed to build a pipeline for natural gas across central Asia which will lead to Russia, and from Russia to Europe. This plan should increase Russia’s influence by many folds.


3. Less recently, Iran, India, and the most dangerous country in the world–Pakistan–agreed as follows:

“ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN. Pakistan, India, and Iran came one step closer this week to realizing a $7 billion natural gas pipeline, a project that is likely to irk US policymakers trying to contain Tehran’s nuclear ambition.”

The Christian Science Monitor (online), May 31, 2007. Emphasis added.

4. “An escalating crackdown by the US on foreign companies and banks doing business with Iran is provoking opposition in Britain and Europe, where diplomats say the action could lead to a trade war.

“...The British, along with other European governments, see the US approach [referring to an anti-Iran bill making its way in Congress] as draconian and are lobbying against it."


Ewen MacAskill, “ US steps up efforts to stop EU firms trading with Iran,” Guardian (online), July 20, 2007.

(To be continued.)