SAVE FACE FOR THE HARMFUL IDIOTS IN EXCHANGE FOR A SECRET TIMETABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL.

UPDATED! MORE ANALYTICAL SPECULATION. READ AND LAUGH.

INTRODUCTION

Have you wondered why the number of U.S. troops dying in Iraq has dwindled?

It's got nothing to do with the surge. That--the surge-was a cunning ruse. It's got everything to do with a new-found realism on the part of the Bush Admninistration. Translation: this administration has now conceded the wider role Iran and Syria possess and play in Iraq. The two seem to have agreed to provide the harmful idiots with a face-saving way out of Iraq.

Things aren't over, though. The harmful idiots need to resolve the fate of tens of thousands of Iraqi troops and functionaries who are under U.S. command and in its employ in Iraq--a state within a state. Can the harmful idiots have these integrated into the rising Iran/Syria-sponsored state? Or will these end up in the U.S. as refugees?

In retrospect, withdrawal from Iraq had begun when the surge was initiated. T'was a ruse, a cunning ruse.

SPIN

The harmful idiots are masters of spin, and nothing else. We’re now made to believe that the surge has worked. That Iraq is on its way to becoming another submissive protectorate, all thanks to 30,000 more troops. Not.

LET’S GIVE THE HARMFUL IDIOTS A FACE-SAVING WAY OUT; OR PARTNER WITH THEM.

The major reasons why attacks on U.S. troops have dwindled have little to do with the extra 30,000 troops. The relative quiet in operations is (significantly) due to the following:

1. The expectation that the harmful idiots will order troop withdrawal sooner than later. Accordingly, the local and regional players no longer see the American occupying forces as the main element to defeat. That war’s been won. The Pentagon/Jewish Right Iraq Project is no more. The local and regional players now are preoccupied with what’s coming after the withdrawal.

2 Iran knows it owns the Maliki government and SCIRI, however much the harmful idiots pay these. Iran, too, has been able to persuade Syria to accept the Maliki government, if only to provide the needed face-saving way out for the harmful idiots.

As a result of Iranian pressure/persuasion, Syria welcomed Maliki and should be welcoming the SCIRI/Badr Corps Deputy to the Iraqi President, Adel Abdel Mahdi, to Damascus. (Abdel Mahdi just canceled for the second time his trip to Damascus and other Arab countries.) It got a pay-off worth over $1.2 billion per year: Maliki agreed to the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Banias pipeline. Under Iranian pressure/persuasion, I suspect, Syria now has even changed its discourse. Prior to the new face-saving phase (give-a-face-saving-way -out-to-the-harmful-idiots), Syria’s Prime Minister would state that national reconciliation in Iraq would occur only after the harmful idiots had ordered withdrawal of their occupying forces. The new language: national reconciliation in Iraq would hasten the withdrawal of the occupying forces.


3. Evidence is mounting that both Iran and Syria are in fact cooperating in security matters with the harmful idiots in Iraq, whether directly or through the Maliki government. Hence , in part, the relative quiet. For instance, on or about August 30, Iran warned the harmful idiots that it would cease its cooperation with them in Iraq if the harmful idiots didn’t stop harassing Iranian nationals in that country. In other words, Iran is cooperating. For its part, Syria’s welcome of the Dawa Maliki and its willingness to welcome the Badr Brigade/Corps Abdel Mahdi was, too, an indication of cooperation with the harmful idiots. The Shia government is the harmful idiots’ pick as they prepare for a face-saving honorable withdrawal or, in the more likely alternative, a partnership with Iran and Syria in the oil-rich country. Never forget that the harmful idiots went out to bat for that government (Maliki’s) when they blackmailed the Saudis to cease and desist from their not-so-secret funding of the Arab Sunni Islamist opposition to that government in Iraq and their allowing of Saudi al Qaeda fighters to stream into Iraq to defend the Arab Sunni.

The chances for success for the Iranian/Syrian-U.S. partnership in Iraq: next to zero. Both for now are playing for short-term advantages.

The harmful idiots’ goal is to protect the shadow government they have created in Iraq–armed brigades which respond exclusively to American command (an American Iraqi foreign legion) and at least one Iraqi intelligence service, controlled in full by the harmful idiots, which targets Iran almost exclusively. They would need to stay indefinitely to protect this San Diego-bound shadow government if only to persuade the Shia establishment (SCIRI, Dawa, Maliki, and whoever comes after him) not to ally itself too closely with Iran and Syria. In other words, the harmful idiots cannot withdraw. If they do, the shadow government they had created to assist them in their occupation, will founder, almost certainly. Need I belabor the point that such is so highly stressful (for the troops and for the American public) that it’s eminently unworkable? Yet, the harmful idiots don’t believe they have a choice. The lesser evil for them would be to accept partnership with Iran and Syria; that is, if these two accept to partner with them for the long haul. And they would only if a bunch of their demands are met, some of which should involve colonialist concessions by the apple of America’s eye. Capitol Hill should stand in the way. Hence the predicament of an eventual withdrawal and total debacle. Still, cooperation by Iran and Syria must've cost some concessions, possibly a secret timetable provided the two countries for withdrawal of some of the troops.

Such timetable, if handed (in secret) to Iran, should buy the harmful idiots some time, though it would not ease the bind they're in. The withdrawal of some of the troops should please the Iranians for two reasons. First, such withdrawal should consolidate Iran's hold over the Iraqi Shia establishment; and, second, keeping U.S. troops in Iraq is akin to an insurane policy against an Amerian attack against Iranian sites, especially nuclear.


WAR...OF WORDS AND THE ISRAELI ATTEMPT TO DRAW US IN.

Meanwhile, the harmful idiots and the Iranians go on waging their psychological wars. I’ve been noticing the Iranians improve on their methods of propaganda. This warfare likely had been adapted from the harmful idiot Office of Special Plans, though the Iranians seem to be better at it mainly because they have the ability to deliver. True to their respective cultures, however, each party is stuck with what persuades its own. The harmful idiots, for instance, have their assets in think tanks and newspapers overseas tell us scientifically how devastating a U.S. attack on Iran would be, and that it should take place soon–almost certainly within the next six months. The Iranians in contrast use a more traditional approach: You do this, and we’ll castrate you in Iraq and the region. The Iranians use images such as fire and hell, not statistics, probabilities, or laboratory terminology.


A war on Iran, even if the U.S. is no longer in Iraq, would be too costly for all, including the world’s economy, though admittedly less costly for the harmful idiots. (The war for the harmful idiots should force the wished for repatriation/recycling of the petrodollars. Time to get into the market and sit and wait. DO NOT LISTEN TO ME. I’m NOT a qualified financial analyst.) As this newsletter in the past has reminded its compatriots, the harmful idiots, Iran and Syria are smarter than they. By now, both countries should’ve improved on their already elaborate plans to “disintegrate” their states and spread into Iraq and what other countries they can, especially Lebanon, Kuwait, and possibly Bahrain. Barring a full war, Iran has its “shu3ub” to protect it, as Iran’s foreign minister, a couple of postings ago, had reminded the harmful idiots.

(I had wrongly translated that word to mean “masses.” Sh3ub is plural for Sha3b–people; starting with the fictional Adam and Eve, or the probably equally fictional Lucy and whoever had mated with her, that first people–Shae3b- would have spun a branch or more–other shu3ub, and so on. Until we reach Saadah in Yemen, or Bahrain, or Lebanon, or the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia–all of the places where Arab Shia shu3ub reside and reproduce.)

We no longer hear about the harmful idiots’ precious protectorate doing what this superb miracle of a country can do: A swift and unique attack on Iran to remind Arabs, Iranians, and Muslims to be good Uncle Toms. To reverse their steady progress towards total and absolute militarism, a microcosm of its benefactor, without the commercial and technological vibrancy. For instance, Iran is said to be re-building an impressive network of missiles in Lebanon to empty out northern Israel in the next war, should the miracle country attack it. And I’m certain Hizbollah is working on contingency plans, a few surprises of its own.

Meanwhile, Israel is looking to entice the harmful idiots/Empire to need it. It can’t attack Iran and not pay too dear a price. What’s it to do with all this military cargo being delivered by the harmful idiots, nearly daily, to show its usefulness? (Probably give some more to the Darfur rebels.) Having become strategically insignificant, a burden, it’s left to make a big deal out of nothing-- a hypothetical plan that Russia has to build a naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus. Frankly, this is getting old. Not only is the Russian navy not incredibly threatening, but a base in Tartus adds little to what Russia can do without it. It’ll be wasted Russian money.


THE SAUDIS; THE EGYPTIANS.

There once was a time when Egypt had defended the Arab nation. Then the cheap, greedy, and shortsighted Saudis proved so financially unreliable that they drove Anwar al-Sadat into the lap of the Americans. He did a volte face and decided that securing cargo is best done via the United States. Egypt, as defender of the Arab nation, fell by the wayside. Lebanon exploded as a result. Syria was left alone to mind the front against the modern-day colonialists. Iraq was stuck all alone in defending the Arab nation’s eastern front–in effect, to protect the Kuwaitis, the Saudis, and the other Gulf Arabs.

Then the harmful idiots dismantled Arab Iraq. The Gulf Arabs became exposed. The harmful idiots couldn’t protect these since the wars in the Middle East no longer were exclusively conventional. Sadly for the Gulf Arabs, the harmful idiots are good at that–conventional war–and, allied to Israel, are otherwise a burden to Arab governments, unconventionally. Arab nationalism had worked to vitiate Islamic fundamentalism. Within Iraq, Arab nationalism–imperfect though it may have been–still had provided an ideology to unite Shia and Sunni within the Iraqi armed forces and motivate them to balance Iranian power.

Having lost their protector, the Saudis and the Egyptians are torn. They know the harmful idiots cannot protect the Saudis. (The Egyptians need not fear any conqueror lest that conqueror goes bankrupt and runs out of wheat.) They know the only fighting army they have isn’t their respective official armies. These are kept weak, especially in Saudi Arabia, to avoid coups. Their only effective army is the Islamist one–al-Qaeda for the Saudis and Hamas for the Egyptians. Odly both governments feel threatened by the very Islamist army they so cherish and need. The Saudis would want al-Qaeda in Iraq, fighting the Shia and Iran; the Egyptians would want Hamas where it is–in Gaza–reminding the modern-day colonialists of their place. Al Qaeda isn’t welcome inside the Kingdom. In Egypt, the government has been waging a relentless campaign to repress the Muslim Brothers–the very same people as Hamas. The principle is the same: we need the Islamists as a fighting force, but not within our borders.

In Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are insignificant, in spite of all the money the Saudis are likely dumping in that country and the Saudi al-Qaeda fighters reaching it to defend the Arab Sunni. Al Qaeda, at any rate, is only one of a number of Sunni Islamist organizations. Some of these, e.g., Ansar al-Sunnah, aren’t necessarily anti-Iranian or anti-Shia. Ominous for the established Arab governments: their support for the Sunni Islamists in Iraq could spill over into Jordan, itself an Islamist powder keg.


SOLUTION: BACK TO BASICS.

The Syrians are right. They repeatedly insist that a resolution of this or that should be a comprehensive settlement–not the piecemeal enterprise the harmful idiots customarily prefer. That game now has come back to bite the harmful idiots in the ass. The price of the piecemeal approach has proved costly.

It would be too much to repeat the obvious here. It’s worthwhile, however, to pay attention to one element of American policy: the alleged interest in fighting terrorism and how the piecemeal approach itself creates possibilities for the same.

Consider this: The harmful idiots are said to be organizing five brigades to fight for Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas. To exclude Hamas from any Palestinian future. Hamas has said it more than once: that the harmful idiots and their Israeli ally are working hard to prevent reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. This makes light of the capability of the Islamists to infiltrate the very Palestinian troops the harmful idiots are putting together. The concept of vetting, which figures highly in the world of the harmful idiots–where all happens in a laboratory, a controlled environment where they can account and measure for all possibilities–is sophomoric. The Fatah troops will be infiltrated.

Transpose this into Iraq. Does anyone have a doubt that, after withdrawal, a huge number of Iraqis who collaborated with the harmful idiots would end up in this country? Most of the shadow government? Islamists are bound to have infiltrated that government, too. I would be surprised that they didn’t. Can you imagine the magnitude of the task necessary to vet a huge migrating government. (Note to self: buy property in San Diego.)

I have an idea: Send these to Israel. Have Old Woman Time vet them in that burden of a state which is looking for a role to shed the image of being a strategic sinker. Three years later, bring the Iraqis to San Diego. Be aware that half of them by then would’ve become Mosad agents and informants. No worry, unleash them against the editor of this blog. He’s got experience.