THE (EVENTUAL AND INESCAPABLE) RISE OF IRAQI ARAB ISLAMIC NATIONALISM

Rough points–rough second draft

(Acronyms:

SGEST: Shia Government/establishment, joining together SCIRI, Dawa, and at times Mahdi.

HISG: Harmful Idiots’ Shadow Government. This refers to the Iraqi military forces and intelligence service (s) which respond solely to harmful idiots’ command.)


1. PLAYER ONE: THE HARMFUL IDIOTS–THE ELEMENTS AND ASPECTS OF THEIR “STRATEGY.”

These have conceded the Shia government/establishment (SCIRI/Dawa–SGEST) to Iran and Syria. They hope eventually to snatch this establishment away from Iran, to balance its power using the shadow government (HISG), or to subdue it using the same. But not now; the Maliki government is useful. It has engaged Syria and Iran successfully as a go-between on behalf of the harmful idiots.

As a result–in part--less U.S. troops are being blown up.

1.a. The shadow government. ( HISG–Harmful Idiots’ Shadow Government)

In the meanwhile the harmful idiots are fully engaged in building (I suspect) their shadow Iraqi government, separate and apart from SGEST. This government responds to the harmful idiots and not to SGEST. I’ll go on a limb and say that the harmful idiots’ shadow government likely is made up of a lot of Baathists who are connected to Jordanian intelligence.

1.b. Sunni militias–to assist the shadow government, a la Lebanon, circa 1975.

The shadow government will expect help from Sunni paramilitaries, such as the Islamic Army, the Doura Revolutionaries, the much touted Anbar tribes–the Sahwas. All of these are being armed by the harmful idiots under the guise (and it is a guise) of fighting off al Qaeda.

1.c. The harmful and idiotic plan.

Nothing is clear about where all of this is heading. I strongly suspect the harmful idiots are once again miscalculating. Nothing new. The harmful idiots can’t seem to get it right.

To illustrate: the harmful idiots and Jordanian intelligence through Lebanese army intelligence had armed and trained the Christian Right in Lebanon in the early 1970s. The militias of the Christian Right were meant to assist the Lebanese army as this army moved to suppress the Palestinian resistance movement, a la Jordan, circa 1969. The harmful idiots were acting on behalf of the Israelis to help them dodge the formation of a Palestinian state, and to teach Syria a lesson or two. The result: the harmful idiots miscalculated royally (about the unity and effectiveness -- or lack thereof--of the army) and Lebanon has been in shambles and misery ever since.



1.d. Achilles’ heel (s)

The harmful idiots can’t get it straight because they are unable to account for their own weaknesses:

(1) their idiotic and harmful adventures cost way too much, what with all the President and VP’s friends billing the tax base as if there’s no tomorrow. Payoffs at historic levels!. Unlike the first Gulf wars I doubt that the harmful idiots will be able to get the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs to cough up enough money to make the Iraq occupation’s cost, or even mere involvement, palatable to the tax base at home.

The harmful idiots likely are trying to place the entire shadow government and the Sunni paramilitaries on the payroll of the GCC countries. But all that does is fund the coming civil wars, and hardly re-builds a country. Too, these Iraqi Sunni – having had a taste of a modernistic albeit repressive state (where women could climb up the ladder of government and business!) -- are not stupid: they know that a united Iraq will mean a rich Iraq, and they will not need the pittance from the backward Gulf Arabs.

(2) Imperial blind spot. This newsletter covered this years ago. In essence, the reluctance to tax at home coupled with unusually low interest rates has generated for years (and continues to) a dollar glut overseas. That has enriched opponents of the harmful idiots–China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela. These (theoretically) as a consequence can fund whatever factions/groups are willing to fight American troops and the corrupt and reactionary proxies of the harmful idiots. A financial equilibrium in the balance of power is (and has been) in evidence for years thanks to the profuse “printing”–in effect-- of American currency.

Put differently, the harmful idiots, self-referential to the extreme, don’t understand their own country. They do know how to get their people elected firing up not-so-hidden racism and xenophobia which they consider mere "wedge issues."

Instead of taxing gasoline and filling the coffers of the federal govvernment, American right wing politicians have enriched America’s rivals. The chief harmful idiot and the forces he mobilized (the Jewish Right, The (NYTimes) Tom Friedmans, and the Christian Right) had launched a harmful adventure without accounting for the fact that rivals had money too. What’s ironic about the mediocre but harmful right wing is that it doesn’t want to tax gasoline, which ends up enriching rivals. Then it dispatches the children of others to devastate another country and orphan its children wholesale to test such self-referential mediocre and grandiose schemes -- New American Century and securing the realm for Israel. This right wing thinks it can print money. It can print. But that money, for now, is accepted by rivals as international currency. These people’s party, the Republican, has proven so irresponsible fiscally that its leaders have gone on a spree of spending profusely without taxing. This, I believe, has played a huge part in weakening US foreign policy.

(NOTE: The dollar glut weakens foreign policy in many ways, including the stated war on terror. To illustrate: I’ve always thought that one relatively inexpensive way government would obtain information on travelers to the United States would be to put on the payroll hundreds of police officers from all provinces in foreign countries. THese officers would answer the questions of US
consular services abiout whether an individual is known for links to groups which advocate mass murder. (I do realize that this system is open to abuse. But it can be tweaked, and be eliminated any time the need ceases.) When rivals -- and even friendly countries with incompetent security -- are rich, these officers would either no longer be “hungry” enough to do us the favor or would go on the payroll of the mass murder - prone group which now is rich thanks to the dollar glut.)

(3) Even after they begin withdrawal , the harmful idiots (both Republican and Democrat) want to leave troops and mercenaries behind.

Which means the war in Iraq will still involve US troops and remain expensive. (The mercenaries are as expensive as the troops.)

In contrast, rivals can fight the war using proxies who are much cheaper. And the rivals are not bankrupt, while the U.S. government is--and all know it. Surprise.
(Rivals don't create a resistance movement. Once this resistacne movement is formed, rivals can make it more effective by helping it out.)


1.e. Reverse the revolution.

Taking a lesson from home (where they imprison young rebels for something as silly as the possession of marijuana) and from their beloved Israelis (if they can’t kill the young Palestinian resistance activists, or turn them into informants, they put them in prison for the better part of their life), the harmful idiots have imprisoned a large swath of the younger generation of Arab Sunni -- over 20,000 of them. These had started a revolution, taking advantage of the war of resistance. The harmful idiots have locked them up and unleashed reactionary tribal forces. They did that to please their allies, the extremely reactionary princes and sheiks of the Gulf. But for how long?

(This policy reversal -- to distance the US from the Shia and ally to the Sunni reactionary forces in Iraq -- became evident after the Vice President visited the Gulf and met with its emirs, princes, and sheiks in early May of this year.)


1.d. Partition Iraq: the proposed consociational scheme.

The harmful idiots are building what they think will be a lasting sectarian/ethnic political structure. The harmful idiots want to be the protectors of the Sunni in Iraq as a way of becoming loved by the wider Sunni the world over.


1.e. Brilliant? The harmful idiots via Egypt pressure the pearl of their eye.

The harmful idiots seem to be using their Egyptians to place pressure on the Israelis. The idea is to get the apple of the harmful idiots’ eye to accept the Saudi peace initiative–to squeeze that colonialist entity back to pre-June 5, 1967 border.

The harmful idiots have for a while now being allowing the Egyptians to smuggle weapons to Hamas through tunnels. Huh? The Egyptian government of course would claim that it has nothing to do with this. Far be it for this newsletter to doubt an Arab source when this source is trying to do the right thing -- get a Palestinian state formed. But it's difficult to believe that the Egyptians can do it, not when they have left the ranks of the Arabs for so long and had become Uncle Toms. Israel will find a way to outsmart both the Egyptians and the harmful idiots. (See below re. the Turkish-Israeli raid on Syria.) Still, there's humor in it: that Egyptian troops cannot locate these tunnels. Or that Egypt would be doing this without the consent of -- even full coordination with -- the harmful idiots.

The apple of the harmful idiots’ eye feels helpless. It can’t unleash its lobby in the U.S. because this lobby is on the defensive having so systematically helped take us into an expensive and endless war and turned us into the most hated country in the Muslim world. Worse, this lobby is one of the major forces behind wanting us into yet another loser, expensive, and self-defeating war -- one with Iran. Even though this lobby has now placed its people nearly in each and every think - tank in the capital, the American tax base is in no mood to hear yet more chatter about war with Iran.

But that will last so long. The Israeli-centered and centric ones should unleash from the think-tanks as soon as the tax base forgets.

The Israelis should be expected do something to neutralize this Egyptian-harmful idiots’ scheme, late in coming. The harmful idiots would’ve stood a better chance in obtaining Israeli concessions had they not torpedoed the Saudis’ Mecca Accord. But, hey, the harmful idiots want total domination and leadership of all the reactionary forces in the world. Accordingly, these aren’t allowed any creativity. The recent Turkish-Israeli operation against Syria–the alleged bombing and landing against structures in northeastern Syria–may have been an Israeli (in coordination with with Turkish generals) attempt to torpedoe the joint Egyptian/harmful idiots scheme of keeping Hamas afloat and capable against the Israeli colonialists. It was a set up by the Israelis and their Turkish generals. They expected Iran to retaliate against US troops in Iraq since for Iran linkage is everything. Such would have forced the harmful idiots to return to the Israeli camp without hesitation. But Iran didn’t retaliate. Instead it dispatched a delegation to Turkey headed by an influential general and issued a warning to that state. (My guess: “We are together in the war to stifle the Kurdish terrorists, though we are aware that the problem is a much larger one for Turkey since such a significant part of its population is Kurdish and lives in a consolidated part of the country. We are fully with you in blunting the Kurds and we are confident you'll be with us when it comes to the integrity of Syria’s territory.” Get it?)

If this speculation is half correct, would it be possible that the White House has turned against the Israelis and is doing it tacitly through Egypt? If so, why would it have given the go-ahead to the Israelis and the Turks to bomb Syria? Or is it possible that elements within the harmful idiot foreign policy establishment (the CIA) are doing this independent of the White House, a la passive-aggressive, winking at the Egyptians while visibly playing helpless?

You can bet the farm that the many among the Jewish community who had lined up behind Bush/Cheney to conquer an Arab and Muslim country and orphan its children, visibly (right wing) or less visibly (the Tom Friedman liberals who want to civilize Arabs and Muslims for Israel ) will be hearing about this from the Israelis. Expect therefore this Jewish right wing and the Jewish liberals to go Democratic all the way in the upcoming elections.



PLAYER TWO: THE IRAQI ARAB SUNNI

The Iraqi Sunni don’t need al Qaeda any longer. For now. Until the harmful idiots lose control and the civil wars erupt. Then they’ll be kissing al Qaeda’s ass.

The Iraqi Arab Sunni fired up a civil war and used al Qaeda against the Shia to defeat the harmful idiots and break their alliance to Iran’s proxies. Who else would dispatch all these suicide bombers?

Now that the Arab Sunni have forced the harmful idiots to change their Jewish Right and Tom Friedman-inspired course, they no longer need the foreign fighters, including the Saudi. (See below.)

The problem for the Iraqi Arab Sunni is the following:

How can they use the troops of the harmful idiots (yes, Virginia: our troops) to get back on top and break Iran’s hold on their brethren, the Shia?

They can’t. Hence their eventual dilemma. To connect to the Gulf Arabs and be on their payroll, to work with the harmful idiots -- all of this will not achieve their goals. These Iraqi Sunni once were proud and modernistic people and only the few among them should accept to be beggars to the backward princes in the Gulf. What are they to do?

Not even an American war on Iran will produce their wished-for result.

One thing would: A new Iraqi Arab nationalism, with an Islamic twist, directed at uniting the country and forcing the Kurds into joining in or running to the mountains.

Iran and Syria may have no choice but to chime in on that nationalism. Why?

Because the harmful idiots want to stay in Iraq. They will use sectarian/ethnic divisions to achieve that end. Nothing new: Divide-to-conquer is an old and proven colonialist strategy. For as long as the Sunni and Shia are divided, the harmful idiots should be able to stay.

Moreover, the harmful idiots aim to use the shadow government to be able to stay and allegedly defend the Arab Sunni. They can keep the Arab Sunni on edge about their Shia brethren (“counter insurgency”) by having their Jordanian-paid proxies or Jordanian-paid Iraqis blow up an Askariyya here and there. Then neither Moqtadha nor anyone else would be able to stop the Shia hoodlums from massacring Arab Sunni.

But the harmful idiot plan will never re-unite Iraq nor bring the Arab Sunni back to power. Not to mention that it will not allow the Shia to take over either. Result: the Sunni and Shia will need to find a formula to re-unite.

The formula: Arab(for the Sunni and the Arab Street) Islamic (for the Shia, Iran, the Kurds, and the Arab Street) Iraqi nationalism.


Iran and Syria will have no choice but to support this new brand of nationalism if they want the US out of Iraq, in full.


PLAYER THREE: THE ARAB SHIA

However much the harmful idiots try to widen the rift between SCIRI and Mahdi–and divide the Shia camp–in the end I doubt that these efforts will succeed. The Shia camp is already and has been in a controlled state of division and chaos. But that camp is more likely to divide super violently not thanks to the harmful idiots’ counter insurgency schemes, but thanks to the eventual rise of the Islamic Arab nationalism. Then you can expect wild assassinations and the dragging of people, live and corpses, onto the streets of the lands once occupied by the US.

Why not divide now? SCIRI knows the harmful idiots will not be a permanent fixture in Iraq. That country is bankrupting them and placing immense pressures on U.S. military commitment in other parts of the world. Not to mention that even they, the reactionaries they are, should know that the dynamics of Iraqi politics will be anti-colonialist, direct or indirect.

Iran in contrast is there to stay.

Most pressing for SCIRI is that the U.S. will never deliver the shadow government it has evolved to the SCIRI/Dawa government-SGEST. (It really is not a pressing matter for the leadership. These are on the payroll of the harmful idiots. But politics is such that this leadership will become insignificant should it stand in the way of Arab Islamic nationalism and the cry to get the colonialists out of the country.)

That Mahdi is conducting less operations against U.S. troops has more to do with offering the harmful idiots a face-saving way to start withdrawing the troops. But once Mahdi comes to a full realization that:

–the harmful idiots will not deliver the shadow government to SGEST; and

–the harmful idiots will try all tricks to keep the Sunni-Shia rift as wide as possible; and

–the harmful idiots will unleash Israel against Mahdi’s ally–Syria

. . . then all bets would be off.

Mahdi and the Shia will need to find a formula for re-joining with their Arab Sunni brethren, not in a consociational scheme (pushed by the harmful idiots). Mahdi, wanting so much to be Hizbollah-like, will not be satisfied with the death of Arab nationalism. It’ll revive an Islamic version of it to revive an Iraq with a mission. That would deliver the Arab World to it doorstep and that of Arab Islamic Iraq. Such -- the pan Arab motivation -- has always been an incentive to local Arab leaders and groups.

Iran will have no choice but to support the new brand of nationalism since only this would assure the departure of the harmful idiots.

And:

importantly, only an Iraqi Islamic Arab nationalism, which includes the Shia, would face-off with the successful Sunni nationalism in Turkey (Development and Justice Party.)



PLAYER FOUR: IRAN

Iran can arm elements within Mahdi to keep the cost of occupation high for the harmful idiots. These dispatch the troops nearly daily to arrest this or that alleged operative of the Quds Brigade. (We all know that the harmful idiots are trying to ignite the wrath of the American public against Iran–but the American public is shouting “Damn it: my pocketbook!” Not another expensive war and engagement in the Middle East to make the few rich and all of us poor.)

But arming individuals within Mahdi isn’t likely to get the troops out, especially that the harmful idiots plan to keep a large contingent of these and mercenaries on the ground to protect and facilitate the work of the shadow state (chuck full of Baathists) they created.


Iran therefore is facing a dead end. It can either accept U.S. presence in Iraq -- and the eventual war by U.S. troops or, more likely, by the shadow government, against Iran, a war of secret operations and an ideological war of Sunni nationalism against Shia -- or it can support a brand of Iraqi Islamic nationalism -- Arab -- which is not antagonistic to Iran as a way of forcing the harmful idiots out of Iraq and dismantling the shadow government.

In other words, if Iran wants to get the harmful idiots out of Iraq, it cannot rely on a limited Shia resistance: blowing up troops now and then or downing a helicopter. The harmful idiots will withdraw troops , Iran and all know that. The problem for Iran will be the shadow government and the US troops and mercenaries who will stay behind to back that shadow government. The only way Iran can force the US troops out in full is to see within Iraq a brand of nationalism which will be uniting of Shia and Sunni. Only if a grassroots anti -- colonial Shia-Sunni resistance emerges will the harmful idiots order full withdrawal and will the shadow government crumble.

Do you see the bind for the Islamic Republic? Iraq under the occupation of the harmful idiots, or under their influence, is an eventual launchpad for operations against it and a fueling engine of Sunni Arab nationalism also meant against it. Iran will have to chose. Barring a deal with the harmful idiots, in good faith, Iran’s choice I believe will be to accept -- even encourage -- Iraqi Islamic nationalism, directed at regaining the unity of the country and re-acquiring the Kurdish north.

This nationalism can build on support of the Palestinians and Syria against Israeli colonialism. Not a costly affair for the budding nationalism, yet powerful enough to buttress ranks. Regaining the north is yet another pillar. Kicking the harmful idiots out -- supporters of Kurdish separatism, of Israeli colonialists, and of a weak Iraq -- yet another. Settling grievances with Kuwait about oil is another. (Don’t under-estimate the revanchist spirit.) And healthy trade relations with Iran, yet another.

A NEW ARAB ISLAMIC NATIONALISM: ILLUSTRATIVE DYNAMICS

To illustrate, here’s how the dynamics might play out. (There would be a rich variation of possible dynamics; I’m only offering one.) Mahdi spins off a group which declares full war on the Kurdish Peshmerga, calling for a united and strong Iraq. The group conducts operations both against the Peshmerga and against U.S. troops. It calls for equal citizenship for all as Muslim Arabs. (The Christians can forget it and head to the US.) Young Sunni will join in, both as voices and as actual fighters. Iran and Syria will send in some money. More Shia and Sunni young are recruited. The harmful idiots dispatch shadow government troops to kill these. Massacres and more prison camps. A new council of ulamas (NCU) emerges, which includes both Sunni and Shia sheiks, younger ones. This new council launches an endless stream of fatwas and press releases against the occupation and its shadow government and condemns the eternal weakness of the SCIRI/Dawa government. The young nationalists assassinate collaborators -- Sunni, Shia, and Kurds.

Israel attacks Syria. The NCU-associated group dispatches fighters to south Lebanon. Some die and provide instant symbols of martyrdom for Islamic Arab Iraq, affirming the expediency of helping Syria and the Palestinians against the Israeli colonialists. Members of the shadow government’s military pass intelligence on to the NCU-associated group. The fact that the older Sunni have failed to re-unite Iraq as a strong and modernistic power, and the equal failure of the Shia SCIRI/Dawa state, fuels the popularity of the NCU-associated group. Moqtadha’s son or nephews join the NCU-associated group, boosting its legitimacy.

Iran and Syria try to keep a close watch on the NCU group. They provide money for its various campaigns–to regain the north, to seek reparations from Kuwait and the United States, to end the occupation in full, as direct and indirect presence. Iran would be weary of losing its influence over this group to Gulf governments as these might take on its financing to change its anti-colonial agenda. (The chief beneficiary of US troops in Iraq are these governments.) But if the NCU group loses its anti-colonial mission, it’ll be outmaneuvered by spin-offs to its left. Should the harmful idiots normalize relations with Iran, the NCU group could face trouble. But then the harmful idiots are unlikely to normalize relations with the Islamic Republic. Either way, and especially if the harmful idiots normalize with the Islamic Republic, expect coup d’etats within the armed forces of the SCIRI/Dawa state and within the armed forces of the shadow state, both motivated by the anti-colonial call of the NDU group (s) and the need to regain the north.



PLAYER FIVE: SYRIA

Syria will be ready for the next war with Israel, likely a war against cities and civilians. Syria should lose a lot of people, but that loss should boost the legitimacy of its government.


In the meanwhile, Lebanon will continue to be the soft spot, from where Syria can exercise leverage against the harmful idiots (should these still be interested, a big if) and the Saudis.

Syria, if pressure continues, should start leaning Islamic, though it’ll tamper this with an intensive ideological effort for acceptance of minorities. It might work. Syria’s support fo the anti-colonial NCU group(s) should provide its government ample legitimacy

PLAYER SIX: SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia fell under extreme pressure (and likely outright threats) from the harmful idiots to cease and desist from forging along an independent foreign policy. Saudi Arabia’s ruling royal team complied.

Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal’s proposition that his country stands equidistant from all parties to the conflict in Iraq is highly suspect. Saudi Arabia has been in Iraq in various forms. First, it allowed its young to fight on the side of the Sunni resistance. (I don’t believe for a minute that Prince Nayef at Interior, at a time of tons of money flowing into the Kingdom, couldn’t have stemmed the flow, even if one accounts for the popularity of the cause.) Then, later, Saudi Arabia provided financing (and likely still does) to various groups. It likely even paid off Moqtadha! (See earlier posts.)

Shifting policy wasn’t difficult for the Saudis. The Iraqi Sunni resistance, by blowing up Shia, and these by retaliating in kind (usually through death squads,) had failed the occupation by the harmful idiots and the Pentagon/Jewish Right Iraq Project. These could no longer proceed to break up the Kingdom--the Defense Policy Board ‘s stick against the Kingdom. The harmful idiots’ creation of the likely Jordan-leaning Baath -dominated shadow government also helped the Saudi governing royal team accept the leadership of the harmful idiots.

You could see Saudi al-Faisal accept (really, hooray) the American occupation of Iraq. He did it recently on Charlie Rose under the moral pretext that the US, imperial he said shyly, should fix what it had destroyed.

What Saud al-Faisal didn’t say is that Saudi Arabia (likely under threats against the personalities of the royal team by the harmful idiots, and unable to change the team at the top), is trusting the harmful idiots, yet again. Maybe the Saudi royal team knows that the plan of the harmful idiots for Iraq is a non-starter. But it feels helpless since the royal team is intimidated by the harmful idiots. Maybe it doesn’t. I don’t know. What I’m confident about is that the royal team runs scared whenever the harmful idiots or the British threaten.