THE IRAQ PROJECT FORGES FORWARD: DISMANTLING/SUBDUING THE SHIA STATE

firstrufdfdraft

NOTE: This post complements the October 7 article, “The (Eventual and Inescapable) Rise of Iraqi Arab Islamic Nationalism.)”


SUBDUING/DISMANTLING THE SHIA STATE

The current phase of the harmful idiots’ Iraq project is all about further splitting the Shias as prelude to subduing the Shia state and placing it under the authority of the harmful idiots’ Baath-revived shadow state. This (effectively ) Baath-revived state should have the support of multiple Arab Sunni militias. Saudi Arabia sponsors some of these (e.g., the Islamic Army–note Tariq al-Hashimi’s repeated visits to that country) and the harmful idiots sponsor others (note the upcoming visit here of the new head of the Sahwa Councils.)

In other words, the harmful idiots have been re-building a version of the Saddam Hussein state they had destroyed, which version they now seek to make dominant. (Oops, they said, over $2 trillion dollars later, sheer devastation, abject misery, and endless queues of Arab and American orphans. )

As a lesser and more realistic goal, the harmful idiots would want to clean up southern Iraq of any and all Sadrists and deliver that part of the federated state to the Supreme Islamic Council (SCI)–formerly the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). This southern state would be Shia, but relatively powerless in weapons and level of military organization against the harmful idiots’ controlled Baath-revived state. (I’ve called this state the “shadow state” in the October 7 post.)


WEAKENING THE SHIA STATE: GOING AFTER THE SADRISTS

A lot of money (I strongly suspect) is being forked over to SCIRI’s people. These now are going after the Sadrists, not always as SCIRI/Badr Corps or Shia state troops but, too, as Councils of Provinces–the harmful idiots’ subsidized counter-insurgency creation to mirror the Sahwas of Anbar. Salah al-Ubaidi, spokesman for the Sadrist Movement, recently (on or about 10/24) stated that “Shia parties and forces, members of the Councils of Provinces, are hounding members of the Sadrist Movement in the middle and in the south of the country. They are helping the occupation against the children of their own country.”


The US ambassador to occupied Iraq and his boss have recently made statements which in good part reveal that the harmful idiots are unleashing the financial and military power of the United States against the Sadrists. They are using the ruse that the US military operations are meant against rogue elements within the Sadrist Movement. No one is fooled.


WEAKENING THE SHIA STATE: BLUFFING AND NOT TO SCARE OFF IRAN (AND RUSSIA.)

The case can be made that the multi-layered campaign by the harmful idiots against Iran is meant more to neutralize Iran’s role among the Iraqi Shia ( the harmful idiots have adopted Saddam Hussein’s very same policy, after they had him lynched) than to stop that state from developing a nuclear weapon.


The multi-layered campaign: the sanctions recently announced by the harmful idiots’ Secretary of State against the Quds Force, the threats made by the harmful idiots’ Under Secretary of State on the Lehrer News Hour (10/26/07) under the guise of explaining the sanctions, the threats that the Israel-centric Vice President made on or about 10/20 at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy–an outfit which both As-Safir (Shia, left, Arab nationalist) and al-Quds al-Arabi (Sunni Islamist, mostly right-wing, Palestinian nationalist) identified as part of the Israel lobby), the threats made by a former high-ranking member of the Israeli military against Hizbollah, also made at the same Israel lobby outfit, and the threats made by Anthony Cordsman, in the form of warnings that the bombing of the Iranians would be far more harmful and effective that even they can imagine.

But more is afoot to intimidate Iran and neutralize its influence within the Shia state in Iraq. On or about 10/25/07, an Iranian Arabic e-daily featured an excerpt from reporting in the Persian-language Jumhuri Islami. That Iranian paper had revealed that US military jets had twice (Sunday and Tuesday) crossed into Iranian air space over the province of Khoramshahr. Other Iranian papers had reported the dispatch of balloons or drones (unclear) over Iranian territory by what they called the occupiers of Iraq. Jumhuri Islami voiced the alleged concern of the residents of Khoramshahr about the failure of the Iranian state to respond to the hostile acts.

The failure of the Iranian state to respond can be explained as follows: (1) The Iranian state wasn’t about to reveal the codes for its air defenses and will wait until the harmful idiots order a real attack. (The failure of the Iranian armed forces to “defend” against past intrusions may have led to the Israeli raid on northeastern Syria–to obtain these very same codes.) (2) Iran had been quite successful in correctly reading the endless array of traps set for it by the harmful idiots and their proxies (e.g., Kuwait, UAE). These traps were (and are) meant to draw Iran to react , to give the harmful idiots –superficially--the ability to mobilize the American public (the “rally-around-the-flag phenomenon) to strike inside Iran. (3) More likely, however, Iran’s concern wasn’t so much the rally-around-the-flag phenomenon–which is unlikely to materialize since very few believe the Bush Administration about anything– but its nuclear sites which it doesn’t want to be bombed–not until the job is done of balancing Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Basic balance of power/terror.


THE HARMFUL IDIOTS’ IRAQ SHIA PROJECT : INSTIGATING A FULL-SCALE INTRA-SHIA CIVIL WAR.

The harmful idiots have been unleashing the troops against Mahdi activists for quite a while now. Shia civilians as a result have been paying the price, killed and wounded, including children, since the Mahdi militants are bound to be found among their families and other civilians.

But the harmful idiots should be overwhelmed when trying to replicate their Anbar Sahwa “counter-insurgency” strategy to the Shia. Iran already on or about 10/7 had Ammar Hakim, the de facto head of SCI/SCIRI, and Sadr (or one of his lieutenants, I’m not sure) sign an agreement not to shed each other’s blood.

It should be reminded here that the perceived success of the Sahwa counter-insurgency stratagem (which the harmful idiots are replicating among the Shia) is likely temporary. It’s not really the surge that made it work. What made it work (for now) are first the HUGE amounts of bribes –I strongly suspect– paid to the tribes and clans, and the Saudi money paid to such groups as the Islamic Army.

A second reason for the perceived and temporary success of counter-insurgency among the Arab Sunni is the the imprisonment of over 20,000 Sunni young men–the revolutionary troops of the Arab Sunni community. (This is where the surge likely made a difference. Wait until the Arab Sunni find themselves defenseless without these.)

A third reason: the consensus (sophomorically hopeful) within the Sunni ranks that it’s time to let the Shia fight it out among each other, weaken each other, and allow the Sunni–-via the US--to re-take control of the country or, at a minimum, play an essential role in its running. This Sunni consensus seems to have concluded that the Arab Sunni resistance (including the dispatched Saudi fighters) already had achieved the goal of forcing the US to seek out an alliance with the Sunni Arabs and look at the Iran-supported Shia with a critical eye. Once the harmful idiots made that shift, the war on the Shia was deemed counter-productive. (This newsletter repeatedly had said that igniting the civil war was the Baath’s first and best line of defense against the troops dispatched by the harmful idiots.) This thinking -- that the harmful idiots will return the Sunni to power -- is a pipe dream, of course, but as a quality friend of mine always reminds me: “Hope springs eternal.” -- Please refer to the October 7 post, “The (eventual and Inescapable) Rise...” for a fuller treatment.)

Fourth, Both Iran and Syria have drawn an alliance with the Maliki government and, accordingly, were not about to seek to de-stabilize it–an ally--any longer.

(The criticism of Maliki on Capitol Hill should be seen from this perspective -- that he and the Shia state he heads is not an ally of the harmful idiots but of Iran; not to mention that his state has been granting contracts to Iran and China and has ordered Chinese weapons. Hence yet another reason for the perceived need by the harmful idiots to weaken that state and subdue it.)


These elements which made counter-insurgency work among the Sunni don’t find their match among the Shia. While the Sunni had achieved their end by forcing the US to adopt them (so to speak), the Shia lost when the US did exactly that -- adopt the Sunni. Even Ammar Hakim (SCIRI) should appreciate that division among the Shia would effectively rob the Shia of their majority status and weaken them vis-a-vis the harmful idiots’ Baath-revived shadow state. The benefit for the reactionary Sunni of an alliance with the United States (unlimited money, arms) far outweighed the cost -- a relatively light civil war. But, for the Shia, there's hardly any benefit. (They control the oil so they already have unlimited money.)

So, for the Shia, it’ll certainly be all about cost. Their civil war, if anything, will no be light but bloody and endless. It’ll put an end to their majority status. In other words, a civil war will compromise the historic gains the Shia had made in Iraq, undreamed of before the harmful idiots had ordered the invasion. Squander those gains for what? To help the harmful idiots control oil which now is theirs and bring the Sunni Baath back to power?


WILL THE HARMFUL IDIOTS SUCCEED IN STOKING THE INTRA-SHIA CIVIL WAR?


The harmful idiots have precious little time to ignite the Shia civil war, full steam, and have the Shia version of the reactionary and backward tribal Sahwas (see above) rein in the Sadrists. (You wouldn’t want to be a woman among these tribes; they’ll slit your throat without any repercussions for any sign of disobeying the men in your extended family! Congrats to the harmful idiots for these alliances.) Why precious little time? Because U.S. generals are breathing down the harmful idiots’ necks about armed forces that need rejuvenation, re-training, new hardware, and what have you. Iraq has drained these forces and made them unavailable for deployment in other parts of the world. Iran is right there, just there! And it will do its utmost not to allow the intra-Shia civil war to rage. (The Syrian government a couple of years ago took in the children of Syrian Kurdish leaders. These Kurdish leaders were stirring trouble. The Syrian authorities placed their children in colleges in Damascus. Treated them very well. But the Syrian Kurdish leaders, whose children were now attending college in Damascus, got the message and knew not to buy any longer into the harmful idiots’ efforts to de-stabilize the Arab government.)

Iran can wait. And it’ll watch Ammar Hakim from nearby. Iran has way more time than the harmful idiots, less distance to Iraq, and ample money-- since tension (and the glutting of dollars by the harmful idiots) continues to raise oil prices and enrich its state.