DISARRAY AND DOOM--Updated!!!!!Yes!

secondnotsoroughdraft

My sixth sense is all about doom.

CLOSER TO WAR?

The harmful idiots are knee-deep in confusion and disarray. Knowing them, they may be thinking war against Iran, soon, if only to use their conventional weapons and have the Iranians cry uncle. Illusion, of course. Their ally, Israel, has just moved troops into the Joulan. All know that should Iran be attacked, Syria and Hizballah would be expected to ignite their front. Moving more Israeli troops into the Joulan, therefore, may be a sign that a U.S. attack against Iran is imminent. Or it maybe just another bluff, part of a never-ending war of nerves, a game of chicken.

But Iraq is where real blood will be spilt, not Israel, not Iran, and not Syria and Lebanon.

PLUGGING HOLES

The harmful idiots’ plan on Iraq now consists of plugging holes, ever and ever. Their Saudi strongman, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the seeming most solid ally in the invasion of the fellow Arab and Muslim country, has become certifiably neurotic. He’s all over the map plugging holes, too.

The most recent hole in the idiots’ plan: the massacres of Tel Afar. Someone may have meant the Tel Afar massacres to split the Iraqi forces that are ancillary to the occupation troops. We know this has been one of the tactics of the Sunni resistance. But, as this newsletter had assessed in the last post, the Shia militias now may be aiming for the same. To fail the American puppet Shia state over which they may feel that they’re losing control. Especially with Shia Fadhila’s split to (probably) join a new coalition under Allawi–the coaltion meant to defeat the rise of the southern Shia state/bloc (Hakim and Sadr). Fadhila's split likely was financed by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

In Iraq, the Arab Sunni resistance has turned Tel Afar into a very dangerous place. Why and what’s Tel Afar? Ask the extreme right-wing American Enterprise Institute (AEI). AEI will tell you that Tel Afar is the town that’s dearest to its heart, the very town the AEI right wing harmful idiots cite as the sample of how "smart" (as this word is defined by idiots) counter-insurgency could work. AEI had been enlisted to shower praise for continued occupation, in the hope of establishing bases, to prepare for yet more war, this time against Iran. Now Shia police and militiamen have retaliated with mass murders of their own. Tel Afar, as a consequence, has got to be hell incarnate.

Turkey, for a while, had kept an eye on Tel Afar. (Tel Afar’s population is mostly Turkoman, both Shia and Sunni.) Turkey must’ve blinked. It should’ve known that the American policy of plugging holes would require the shift of ancillary troops (Peshmerga and Allawi's generals) to other locales–the province of Diyali, most recently.

FLIRTING WITH THE ARAB SUNNI RESISTANCE BY...LYNCHING THEIR (SYMBOLIC AND ONCE) LEADER!

The harmful idiots are awash in confusion, working at cross-purpose. We recently learned–this newsletter didn’t since its analysis had led it to that, anyway-- for instance, that the U.S. chief harmful idiot at the Green Zone had been holding talks with the Islamic Army of Iraq and other Arab Sunni resistance groups made-up mostly of former Iraqi army officers. Not a bad move. He’d come to realize that we’d been defeated and as a consequence had become smart. Not. Why? He’s shot his own foot when he aided in the lynching of the (symbolic and once) leader of these groups, Saddam Hussein–their benefactor. How typically i.........tic!

(It took me a long time to realize that the only way I can explain these people’s behavior is to call on the very basic concept of "idiot." We tend to assume that people have a basic ability to adapt to their surrounding. I’ve made that mistake watching the idiots, for years.)

ANTI-AMERICANISM IS HERE TO STAY

True, these groups led by former army officers probably had played a part in unleashinig the younger ones (aka Iraqi al-Qaeda) on the Shia. Why? Viewing their limited resources, that was the best and most ironclad way to fail the invasion and occupation. They succeeded. The invasion/occupation has failed, miserably. Even debased American power the globe over. An amazing feat. They won.

But now they’re stuck with the young ones. They would like to subdue these, if only to give themselves some tactical flexibility. But they can’t, not without shedding intra-Arab Sunni blood, profusely. It’s not our problem, you might say. Yes and no. It is our problem because, when all’s said an done, the Arab Sunni will reconcile, or try to. When they do, the army oficers will have to meet the younger ones half-way. That likely will mean rejection of the United States and a return to Russia, China, and some of the Europeans (possibly). It could also mean acceptance of a cooperative relationship with Iran.

As far as American troops are concerned: Even if the Sunni Arabs quiet down as a result of the Saudi-financed and Jordanian-encouraged intra-Arab Sunni civil war, it should be expected that the southern Shia would take over the mantle of resistance. The dynamics of their own politics lead in that direction, American payoffs to the many notwithstanding. (Always remember that others have money too, and ours now is significantly less valuable than the money of others, we’ve minted so much of it to finance a war without taxation.)

A PRESIDENT, ALL ALONE.

If you haven’t noticed: It looks as if the right-wing has all but deserted this President. You don’t see them on the Lehrer Newshour much anymore. (Remember when they brought out Bush father as a shot against the bow of the Jewish Right when its luminaries had started to criticize his son?) The Jewish part of the right-wing has all but tiptoed away from the carnage it so helped create. Seeing to the death of the parents of little children was and is of no concern to this Right’s luminaries. It’s always about the welfare of Israel, nothing less. At any rate, there’s no need to remind all that this breed of right-wing played such a prominent role in the coalition that orphaned little children by the thousands. All of them now–Evangelical and Jewish Right–are left with Big-Mouth-Bolton to pontificate about strategy, John Locke (yes dear), and Iran.

Relevance: All parties to the conflict know the above and are bound to believe that the U.S. troops will not remain in Iraq to complete any defined task. In other words, all are thinking about how to re-align their alliances and their goals. Concomitant, they probably believe that the President will wait for a Democrat to pull the troops out--though he may be forced to do some of the withdrawls himself. (All signs are that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are taking over the mantle from the U.S., via Allawi--another topic.)

RICE SPINS IN THE WIND–BEHIND IN TIME, AS ALWAYS.

Another harmful idiot, the Secretary of State, is spinning in the wind. She thinks that connecting directly with the heads of Arab intelligence services of puppet Arab governments would stabilize things. She’s delusional. True, these–the heads of intelligence services–do hold the real power in the Arab world. These are the people who torture on demand–most recently, by the harmful idiots. But, lacking in strategic clarity doesn’t helps anyone, intelligence or idiot.

(I'm reading Zaki Chehab's Inside the Resistance. One distinct impression one gets is about the incompetence of Arab intelligence services. I believe this incompetence probably is related to the fact that the Arab Street has such a huge well of sympathy for those who chose to fight. There's more to it; I'll try to review the book--though I'm not promising anymore.)

Events have rushed way past the pathetic Ms. Rice and her advisers. Israel/Palestine has become insignificant to the welfare of the troops or to the stability of Iraq. What she’s doing is too little too late. I understand that she’s likely struck a deal with rich Saudi Arabia: to rent the troops out to them in exchange for kindness towards Israel. But the epicenter of instability had shifted a long time ago to Iraq, possibly to involve Kuwait. It’s no longer Israel/Palestine. Israel can stew in its own juice of chauvinism and ghetto-ism. Both it and Palestine are isolated. The epicenter had shifted away when Rice and her cohorts invaded–--no scenarios for possibilities, no imagination. It happened when she, a weakling, failed in the most elemental requirement of a new job: to define the task, and fast.

Yes, there has been for a long time a need to defuse the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if only to de-link it from other hot spots. But if the idiots are doing this in the hope of buttressing a united Arab-Israeli front against Iran, it won’t work. Any Israeli troops anywhere in the Arab world would spell the end of the Arab leaders who invited them. Not to mention that the Israelis have been defeated twice. Hizballah defeated them in its war of liberation of Lebanon’s south in the 1980s and 1990s and, again, Hizballah defeated them when it took the war inside Israel last summer. This signaled that a victory, clear-cut, has become impossible for the Israelis and, by extension, for the United States. As a result, no one (including Arab puppet governments) really thinks highly of what Israel can offer militarily.

Not to mention that the mass murder of 1200 Lebanese civilians, fleeing, under the "theory" of collective punishment (wonder who from they adapted this?), nauseated the Europeans, neighbors of the Arabs.

If the idiots are doing it to buttress a united Arab front against Iran, without Israel, they should know, shouldn’t they (I’m reasoning with idiots), that the Shia-Sunni rift they and Jordan had unleashed has weakened this putative front’s effectiveness, severely. And they shouldn’t under-estimate Arab Syria’s ability to derail this effort. (Syria’s hyper Arab diplomacy in preparation for the recently held Arab Summit in Riyadh was truly impressive.) Syria, allied to Iran, can provide more protection to countries such as Kuwait than the entire American armada.

YET ANOTHER AMERICAN ILLUSION

The harmful idiots are delusional. They really believe that Saudi Arabia can deliver in Israel/Palestine (if so, only temporarily, unless the Israelis take Hamas seriously as a negotating party) and in Iraq (dream on.) Hello? What troops does Saudi Arabia have? Haven’t the idiots understood that controlling the ground (as their insignificant asset Abdel Halim Khaddam used to say about Syria in Lebanon) equals negotiating power? He should’ve added that such control has to be done by Arabs and Muslims, with an ideological mission of one kind or another, not by poor and clueless American troops.

But the Saudi King doesn’t seem to be concerned about not having fighting troops. King Abdallah is said to have lectured Mr. Ahmadi-Nejad by reminding him that the American naval armada in the Gulf was not there for "vacationing." (Financial Times, March 27, 2007, at 2–article by Roula Khalaf.) Doesn’t this confirm this newsletter’s analysis that U.S. troops, once mercenaries for oil and Israel, now are mercenaries for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf countries? Are we having Bandar bin Sultan and Ehud Olmert (who recently warned that a U.S. pullout from Iraq would result in the fall of Jordan’s government) define American strategy? What’s their training? What’s their bias?

THE NEED FOR FLEXIBILITY

Get the troops out, now. You have Al-Adid to provide conventional deterrence. Dispatch Immigration and Naturalization Service agents to Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt to clear people for visas, all those who cooperated (called "collaborators") in the occupation. (Mr. Maliki should be at the front of the queue.) Saudi Arabia and Kuwait can take care of Iran by paying it off, as they should’ve done with Saddam Hussein, instead of subscribing to the ideas of the harmful idiots to starve and humiliate the Iraqis.

Get the troops out, not only because of opposition at home. Get them out because they don’t stand a chance. Be flexible. Don’t let events out-race you. Avoid a Lebanon-like 1983 tragedy, on a far larger scale.




Idiots.

TARGET: KUWAIT (Updated)

a-tired-BUT-MUCH-IMPROVED-sort-of-seconf-draft

INTRODUCTION

The harmful idiots now will need to find a new (idiotic) scheme to manage what could become a new reality for Kuwait. Here’s a layout of how this new reality could emerge, a by-product of the regional disarray and realignment.

THE HARMFUL IDIOTS ASSIST MUQTADHA

As they spread the troops across Baghdad, and find little resistance (as I write, seven troops were killed!), the harmful idiots beam, though they qualify it by saying, "It’s too early." Unaware of the reality that they’re now servicing not only their Israel and the Gulf countries, but Muqtadha as-Sadr himself.

This is a great time for Muqtadha, a time to vet those who follow the orders of his chain of command against those who don’t. Unwitting American troops are performing this task for him, which helps him avoid shedding intra-Mahdi blood. U.S. troops, being deployed by political and strategic harmful idiots, will finish the renegades within the ranks of the Mahdi Army. Free of charge. Those Mahdi Army commanders left should be the good ones–the ones who follow Sadr’s chosen chain of command; the ones who disappeared on orders, getting trained, and should re-emerge on orders; the ones who should be as good an army as Lebanon’s Hizbollah.

ANOTHER SERVICE, FREE-OF-CHARGE, BY THE HARMFUL IDIOTS TO MUQTADHA AND HAKIM

The idiots are providing Muqtadha and Iran’s agent Hakim yet another service: they’re finishing for them their enemies in the Anbar province. All on the assumption that those parties in the Arab Sunni resistance which are willing to deal with the Americans (e.g., the Islamic Army of Iraq, and some clans) can win the intra-Sunni civil war. Highly unlikely. The more likely result of the intra-Sunni civil war should be the general weakening of the Iraqi Arab Sunni, politically and militarily, as happened to the Christian Arabs of Lebanon.

Weakened and exhausted, the Iraqi Arab Sunni should become better disposed to accept the eventual flirtatious calls from the Shia state in the south. What choice do they have? Their own Arab Sunni brothers in Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia had colluded against them, stabbed them in the back, repeatedly, willingly and gladly.

In contrast, their Iraqi brothers and sisters, Shia but Iraqi, would by far be a better bet for the future than the leaders of the Gulf countries. The latter hoard the billions in foreign bank accounts while the Iraqi Arab Sunni eat dirt. It’s up to the Mahdi Army and SCIRI; it's their call: whether they can, once the Iraqi Arab Sunni self-defeat (with the help of the Jordanians and the Saudis), find a formula to accommodate them. Sharing their oil with them and re-directing their attention towards Israel and Kuwait (see below) will probably be some of the venues the southern Shia will take to bring back their brethren into an Iraqi fold.

THE SAUDI/AMERICAN PLAN: THE AMERICANS AS PROTECTORS OF THE ARAB SUNNI OF IRAQ. (added)

The Saudi/American hope is that the Arab Sunni of Iraq would adopt the Americans as their protectors. Such would provide the occupation army an Arab ally in the center of the country from where to conduct operations to subdue the rest of it. To reverse the clock, so to speak. In addition, the new-found positive relationship would improve America's tattered and anti-Muslim image in the Arab Sunni and Sunni worlds. But it's too late for that. The harmful idiots have let way too many genies out of the bottle. The young generation which has taken over the mantle of Iraqi resistance to the Americans, al-Qaeda-influenced or not, is unlikely to want to accept protection by the Americans and a return to the status quo ante. In other words, this younger generation wants to lead the country, not return to its former submissive state.

Acoordingly, to implement the plan (the-Americans-as-protectors-of-the-Arab-Sunni), U.S. troops will need to finish the young resisters (aka al-Qaedah) once and for all. The escalation in troops therefore is meant to subdue this generation, while the naval buildup is meant to deter Iran from spoiling the plan.

But Iran has a more solid card: the Shia. It wouldn't surprise me therefore if the Shia unleash their ire on the Americans, forcing them to face two insurgencies at the same time: the one of the Arab Sunni young; and the Shia.

ANOTHER AMERICAN ILLUSION: IRAQI POLITICS ARE WHAT THEY APPEAR TO BE.

Meanwhile, the harmful idiots and the Saudis are laboring under yet another illusion. Their horse, Ayad Allawi, the CIA man who is favored by the Kuwaiti and the Saudis–and now probably financed by them–is doing politics under the awfully misguided assumption that the current political framework in Iraq is what it appears to be at the surface. It’s not. As if his Saudi/U.S./Kuwait-sponsored new coalition, for instance, or attempts at one (reel in Fadhila and the Kurds---Barazani, returning from Saudi Arabia, assured the southern Shia that he’s not changing course; not enough Saudi billions?) will be able to regain Iraq’s south. As if this proposed new coalition will have any real popular base, but a broken Arab Sunni community, living off the bread crumbs from the Saudis, the Kuwaiti, and the Emirati. (Guess who welcomed Allawi at the Riyadh airport? Muqrin bin Abdel Aziz, the head of Saudi intelligence. Not Saud al-Faisal, the foreign minister. Secret governments-by-intelligence-services, all the way!)

All in all, an idiotic Saudi-Jordanian-American plan built on illusions. Too many parties want to defeat it.

A DEFEAT FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Democrats, led by Hillary, are making sure the defeat of the American extreme right wing in Iraq is, too, a defeat for the Democrats. Blame it in part on Hillary’s need for her Jewish constituency, since a good part of that constituency is mobilized around the idea that staying in Iraq is good for the security of Israel.

Incredibly, the Democrats are adopting the right-wing historic defeat as their own under the dubious claim that the U.S., non-Arab speaking, motivated by such non-Arab issues as Israel’s welfare, can in fact balance the power of a Muslim country. That country has evolved an extension of itself, Arabic-speaking, in southern Iraq and in Sadr City. And it is able to do it because the idiots and their puppets, the Jordanians and the Saudis, have ignited the Sunni-Shia rift as a means of containing the Islamic Republic (for the U.S.) and the Shia (for the Saudis).

(The Jordanians do things for American money. They have no oil. Only some phosphate, Petra, Wadi Roum, and stunning Roman ruins. In addition, they have one of the best cheap street food, coffee, and tea I’ve ever had. But tourism is not to be, not with the harmful idiots’ endless schemes for the region. Regional crisis therefore are the Jordanians’ bread and olive oil. It’s they–the Jordanians and the U.S.–who pushed Muqtadha fully–no longer tactically-- into the arms of the Iranians! (They know what I’m talking about. Refer to earlier post, "Who did it?")

But the harmful idiots (through the Jordanians and the Saudis) should push the sectarian envelop to their own detriment. The more they push it, the more entrenched Iran becomes among the Arab Shia. The less they push it, the more entrenched Iran becomes among the Arab Street.

That country–Iran--can, too, support the Arab opposition, exposing the reactionary soul of the harmful idiots, who are supporting treasonous regimes which had colluded with the idiots and the Israelis against their own. Not to mention that the Iranians can sponsor websites which, with some embellishment, would reveal how the rulers of these countries are stealing their people’s resources blind.

For the idiots: Win to lose; lose to lose.

SOLUTION: ATTACK IRAN. NOT

Oh, so you think that attacking Iran will resolve this dilemma. Think again. You can’t, can you. I know, dear. You’re idiots with severely limited talents. Badly you want to eliminate an Israel foe, don’t you? Oh dear. Console yourselves: you have great-paying jobs and great pensions, all in exchange for idiotic schemes. You send unwitting young men and women to die for oil and Israel while you hang out in safety, having your right wing Arab and Muslim-hating Judeo-Christian "minds" at all these institutes you finance write up a storm about this and that. Good for you. You, after all, in your own petty ways, are smarter than many–certainly I. (Or is it me? To quote Hyacinth Bucket.)

This newsletter has said it a long time ago: that the Iranians and the Syrians, following Iraq, by necessity , sheer common sense, and basic intelligence, must’ve evolved a self-defense scheme. This scheme would "disintegrate" the state, so to speak. The Iranian and the Syrian states, once "disintegrated" after attack, should fight a guerrilla war against U.S. troops, commanded by the idiots. Lesser attacks by the U.S. should beget lesser operations, miniature Tet-like, enough to tire out the U.S. army and the public. A larger attack which disturbs Iran in a significant fashion should beget a significant Tet-like retaliation.

Concomitant: a larger anti-war domestic backlash.

A FIGHTING MAHDI ARMY

This newsletter had predicted, following the confrontation between the Mahdi Army and U.S. troops in 2004 (I believe), that Muqtadha would seek out the help of Lebanon’s Hizbollah to train it for its next confrontation with U.S. troops. Common sense, right?

The Mahdi Army will confront these troops when it’s ready, as when the U.S. bombs Iran. A huge Tet-like offensive should erupt, which would include weapons meant to disable the new tanks the U.S. recently acquired from Israel–yet another opportunity for the Americans , the Israelis, and the Russians to test their weapons on Arab soil.

(The idiots can’t seem to understand–I need a megaphone--that their flouting of their alliance with Israel–as in purchasing weapons from it to use against Arabs and Muslims-- is a leaden weight to sink them. They can’t appreciate that conventional weapons are nearly out. Politics and inexpensive weapons have been in for quite a while now. (I know: these don’t create jobs and profits.))

In case of a Tet-like offensive, the U.S. will need one million troops, or will need to withdraw in defeat. Or bring in the one million troops, then withdraw in defeat.

THE NEW SHIA STATE SHOULD GO AFTER KUWAIT

The new de facto Shia state in the south will evolve with little division. While Jordan and Saudi Arabia work hard to divide the Arab Sunni in Iraq, political and religious Iran are assuring that Sadr and Hakim work together. Sadr will be Hizbollah-like, and Hakim Amal-like. Sadr as the youthful organization of young fighters, "the best army in the world," and SCIRI as the old Shia rebels, now mature, politically savvy, and less cult-like. (I doubt Mahdi will ever be able to achieve the incredible level of secrecy that Hizbollah had.)

The two will build bridges to the other Iraqis. They don’t need to, but politics is such that when one Shia Iraqi nationalist voice is raised, other voices will compete, so not to be outbid. (Get it?) It’s unthinkable to me anyway that the de facto Shia state in the south will ever not want to re-unite in one Iraq. I assure you this is not wishful thinking or illusion.

To reach the other Arabs of Iraq, the micro-Shia Iraq in the south, bordering Kuwait, can use a few slogans to re-build the bridges with their Arab Sunni brothers:

(1) Israel. Its occupation of Arab lands and the perceived dispatch of the American army into Iraq by Israel’s people in the United States. The mobilizing value of this issue should lose much of it potency once the U.S. withdraws, as Israel is far away. Unless, of course, the U.S. keeps contingents in Iraq (the Hillary plan), in which case this issue will remain potent.

(2) United Iraq. A beacon of Islamic Arab nationalism, with a Shia willingness to share generously the oil revenues of the south with the Arab Sunni. Again, ,this would require a radical change of thinking on the part of the SCIRI people. (I’m confident Mahdi would change much more willingly.) Iran, Syria (and Russia?) would have to force their hand. The Arab Sunni would be too weak to resist the allure of this patriotic mission, even though the new Iraq would be led by the Shia. But, should they evolve a consensus, Shia rule could be a source of power since these have the numbers to re-unite the country. In this framework, Arab Shia and Arab Sunni would focus on returning to the fold the Kurdish part of the country, the de facto state in the north. The Kurds would definitely not want to return willingly. But their association with the Israelis (and the Americans) should give terrific elan to the United Iraq issue, as it would weld to the Israel issue.

(3) Kuwait. Say what?

Kuwait, if it follows the Saudi princes’ lead to cozy up to Israel–only if-- will be used as a uniting slogan. Kuwait, after all, was a main aider of the harmful idiots in the entrapment of Saddam Hussein, and later occupation of Iraq by American troops. Earlier, Iraq had fought an 8-year war in part to defend Kuwait, at a terrific cost in blood–both Shia and Sunni--and treasure. Yet the Kuwaiti royals, scheming with the idiots, left Iraq in a state of abject poverty, while they built palaces and married many women. Animosity towards Kuwait might just be (one of) the pill (s) the doctor has ordered to help bridge the differences between the Iraqi Arabs: Arab Sunni and Arab Shia, yet not antagonize Iran. Think German revanchists.

Currently, the Kuwaiti are playing it safe: They are accommodating the Islamic Republic while drawing yet closer to the British. That might work for a while, though they should be aware, shouldn’t they, that the Brits can’t protect anyone. If anything, their association with them should draw the ire of the Islamic Republic. Though, for now, this Republic, is patient until such time as the regional picture clears up.

Should the revanchists, both Arab Sunni and Shia, draw together, even Iran might not be able to provide protection for the Kuwaiti, especially if these adopt the Saudi plan to draw closer to Israel. The new Shia-led state will never make the mistake of invading Kuwait. It’ll tire it out, and drain it. You know the rest.

Here, one should not forget that around a quarter fo Kuwait’s population is Shia. These should like to see their Iraqi brothers draw closer to the Sunni of Iraq, as such would give them better leverage in their political life in Kuwait itself. A successful Iraqi Shia-Sunni union would only strengthen their hand inside Kuwait.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Expect Kuwait to cozy up to Syria, Iran’s Arab ally, which now has drawn even closer to Iran, what with twelve recently signed memos of understanding. (Though they haven't signed a mutual defense treaty, for all purposes, Iran and Syria now have one.) Arab Syria would be Kuwait’s safety valve against the stratagem of the new southern Shia state to turn Kuwait into the object of Iraqi Arab hate. Expect Kuwaiti (protection) money to flow to Syria. Expect Kuwaiti subjects to flood Syria to spend their summers. Expect Kuwait to seek out more Sunni to come to Kuwait, a la Bahrain. (Already Kuwaiti leaders are making congratulatory statements to the unity government in Palestine--a precursor of their wish to heal a precious Sunni-Sunni relationship, and possibly bring in more Sunni into their Emirate to overwhelm the Kuwaiti Shia.)

But don’t expect all of these smart self-preservation moves if the harmful idiots have the iron-clad control over the Kuwaiti intelligence services, which I suspect they do.

That’s how the idiots (and Kuwaiti intelligence) got us in trouble in the first place.

A JOURNEY

Coming very soon: Target: Kuwait.

I was driving back from northern Virginia, clueless. To my right (southeast?) was the Pentagon. I saw a huge crowd there, in the parking lot. A helicopter hovered above. I drove on. Walking away was an endless queue of people with anti-war signs.

My heart began to palpitate. Where was I?

As I exited onto the ramp that led to the entrance to Arlington Cemetery, I saw more protesters, most heading to the cemetery, some away towards Memorial Bridge. I stopped to let them cross, and I didn’t want to move on. I froze. There were people of all ages. I saw couples with their children, a good number. I saw old people. I saw an old couple in their mid-eighties--must've been--braving the cold wind.

It’s happening. We’re getting out. Notwithstanding the Israeli Prime Minister’s recent self-serving warnings that our beloved Jordanian government--a base for the harmful idiots--would fall should we withdraw from Iraq.

The Israelis, the Jewish Right, the Jewish liberals, and the Christian Right provided the public cover for the oil administration to get us into one war; now they want to see us drain even more in blood and treasure. To dodge one Palestinian generation after another. To annihilate Lebanon. To wipe out any Arab with dignity and pride. To turn that region’s people into Uncle Toms, their countries into plantations. To dodge a Palestinian state.

To orphan yet more children.

DAMNING THE ARAB SHIA: SAUDI ARABIA TO REVERSE THEIR RISE

verytroughdraft (I’m really rushing this through.)

It hit me after writing the last post that Saudi policy, though seemingly accommodative towards Iran, in only superficially so. I think the Saudis are going full steam against Iran. They’re doing that by pursuing a systematic policy of containing the new-found political power of the Arab Shia, then clipping that power. Their tools:

(1) the American troops in Iraq;

(2) the infusion of dollars into the pockets of cooperating regional leaders; and

(3) (quite possibly soon) the Peshmerga.

NO ABILITY TO FIGHT

Saudi Arabia doesn’t have the qualified troops to face off with Iran or even lesser states. The only sector of the Saudi populace which is capable of fighting resides outside the state structure. You guessed it: it’s al-Qaeda. What’s within the state structure has never really shown its fighting worth. The royal family has not wanted to develop competent armed forces lest these stage a coup against the family. (I think the new regional realities will show them to have made a grievous mistake.)

So, in essence, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and all the other Gulf protectorates now use the U.S. troops to achieve their goals in Iraq.

REVERSING THE NEW POWER OF THE ARAB SHIA

The Shia Fadhila party in Iraq recently quit the Shia (SCIRI-dominated) United Iraqi Coalition. This seems to be part of the Saudi strategy of clipping the wings of the Arab Shia who are allied to Iran.--by dividing them. The Fadhila announcement came during (possibly at the very end) of a tour of Sunni Arab nations by Ayad Allawi, the man who is perceived as a CIA asset. One can safely conclude that a lot of money went into the Fadhila pockets–Kuwaiti and Saudi– via Mr. Allawi.

PUT THE KURDS ON THE SAUDI PAYROLL

And now we hear about a Saudi invitation to Masoud Barazani, one of the two main leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan, to visit Saudi Arabia. (The other leader, Jalal Talabani, is ill and still is recuperating at a Jordanian hospital.) The Kurds, Sunni but not Arab, have been a cornerstone of the U.S.-Israeli push to castrate Arab Iraq, and still are to neutralize the Islamic Republic. My suspicion is that the Kurdish leaders made billions from the American taxpayer. Saudi Arabia, floating on so much oil money, is taking over from the Americans, made bankrupt by the harmful idiots–both the Wolfowitzs (let’s obsess over how to castrate Arabs) and the Bush (let’s provide tax cuts, yet wage a careless and expensive war--all to get elected.)

Why would Saudi Arabia invite Mr. Barazani?

Because, as with Fadhila, this was yet another move to encircle the Arab Shia of Iraq. The idea would be:

–to evolve an anti-Iran Sunni-Shia front in Iraq, headed by Ayad Allawi (Shia but secular) to clip the wings of the Arab Shia populists (Sadr) and tame the power of Iran agents’ (Abdel-Aziz Hakim and Daawa); and

--to enroll the Peshmerga as a private army to achieve their policy goals, especially should the Americans withdraw.

(Why would Maliki go along with a strategy that’s anti-Iranian? Think money–lots of it. Think, too, that he probably is planning for a life in San Diego, fishing off the Mission Bay pier, when all of this fails. By the way, Allawi is better than others; he’s secular and that’s great.
But he had helped put an end to secularism in the Middle East. He is, after all, a harmful idiot.)

HOW TO PUT U.S. TROOPS TO USE

U.S. troops are essential for the Saudi strategy to succeed. They have driven away Sadr and his commanders in what, for now, looks like a success.

The Saudi payoff for the use of U.S. troops is the Saudi ("Arab") peace proposal for Israel. Bandar bin Sultan was in Washington on or about March 12, as was Israel’s foreign minister. The Arab press is abuzz with news about coordination between the two for a Saudi ("Arab") peace proposal which would be acceptable to Israel. Too, an Arab summit should take place soon in Riyadh where the Saudi-formulated peace proposal will become an Arab one, thanks in good part for the mucho money which should flow into the Arab leaders’ bank accounts.

THE ARAB SHIA BACKLASH

You can see the gathering Shia backlash. Last Friday, A sheikh known to be a member of SCIRI, in a Friday sermon in Najaf, accused the British of trying to bring the Baathists back to power. These were fighting words. For now, attacks on British bases in and around Basra have been limited in impact. One should expect these to intensify as the Saudi plan to encircle the Arab Shia evolves.

What to expect. Thinking out loud, I would imagine:

--That the Shia arch-enemies, SCIRI and the Mahdi Army, should be trying to pull together with the help of Iran as mediator.

--That the Shia may take over the mantle of sectarian massacres. Why? This would be their way of splitting the American ancillary armies--the troops which the U.S./Allawi/Jordan camp can rely on and which are not infiltrated by the Shia militias. Sectarian massacres, if intense enough, will split any and all armies.

--That the Shia may take over the mantle of operations against U.S. and British troops and their ancillary armies. The question here is: how and where? Again, thinking out loud, I would imagine the south is where most of this will happen. Hence perhaps the decision by Tony Blair to start pulling out some of the British troops, and concentrate the rest away from cities.


All in all, the Saudi plan should strengthen Iran’s hand as it would place an insurgency so close to Kuwait, practically an American base in the region. In addition, it should take the Shia-Sunni rift to higher levels not only in Iraq but, too, in Saudi Arabia. (In Saudi Arabia, such will take forms meant to draw the attention of the world human rights and liberal communities to the plight of the Shia.) Peace with Israel, imperfect as it’ll certainly be, should provide the new de facto Arab Shia state in the south (and Iran) fodder to keep the bridges open to the Arab Street. Especially that the Arab Shia of Iraq are as literate as any other Arab.

PLUS CA CHANGE...

And so, my fellow Americans, we will have to decide whether to suppress the Shia insurgency in the south, as Saddam Hussein, the Arab friend the harmful idiots lynched, once did.

We have no friends. Only assets with an endless appetite for our (less valuable) money

Plus ca change...

DISARRAY AND REALIGNMENT–PART II

thalith (third) rugh and ttttumble drraft

Having eliminated the Baath government in Iraq, the harmful idiots now bear the burden of balancing Iranian power in the region. The protectorates cannot do it. The Arab ones are preoccupied, counting their money. Iraq is in shambles and has failed as a potential protectorate. And the Israeli is useless, even harmful, as its every move sets the harmful idiots back, again and again.

And the idiots can’t do it either. They’re English-speaking, Judeo-Evangelical invaders against whom the Arab Street (and its many sympathizers within the government establishments) can easily be mobilized. The Street in essence is convinced that the Judeo-Evangelical invaders had come to subjugate Sunni and Arabs on behalf of Israel. Not much the harmful idiots can do about that.

I will in the third part of this series juxtapose the harmful idiots’ hopeless dilemma against the strategies and tactics of the Iranians. But, for now, let’s take a look at Saudi Arabia.

REALIGNMENT: SAUDI ARABIA

TWO EVENTS

Two events have compelled the Saudis to reassess their strategic world view. These were:

1.The aggression against Arab Iraq.

The realization that the harmful idiots are exactly that–harmful and idiotic–who invaded Iraq only to eliminate forever a working balance of power in the region; and who dismantled an Arab and Sunni-led country. King Abdallah, then Crown Prince, and Bandar bin Sultan, an extension of the harmful idiots, had all but hoorayed the invasion and had colluded with the Judeo-Evangelicals. They really had believed in the omnipotence of the harmful idiots. They still do. They have to. But now the Saudis should be aware that the options available to the harmful idiots are all lousy, as would the repercussions of these options on the Saudis.

2. The aggression against Lebanon's civilians.

The realization that the Israelis are a second-class power. This became eminently clear when Hizballah stood its ground and more last summer. In that war the Saudis witnessed the Israelis unleashing tremendous conventional firepower against defenseless civilians. The Saudis (and most observers) viewed the Israeli mass murder from the air ("collective punishment") as a sign of weakness. More importantly for assessing strategy, Hizballah had shown the Saudis that it has bridged the technology gap with the harmful idiots and the Israelis. Better yet, it has shown them that, in addition to being technologically competent, and terrifically secretive and near-impossible to penetrate, its men had terrific stamina and courage and had fought valiantly. Even if we discount the de facto defeat of the harmful idiots in Iraq, the Hizballah feat, standing alone, has changed the balance of power in the region.

These two events have imposed a new strategic view. The Saudis, of course, cannot quit their alliance to the harmful idiots. But they can diversify. They can seek out new alliances.


REALIGNMENT: BEFRIENDING IRAN

I can go on for quite a long time about the exchanges of visits of Saudi and Iranian officials to each other’s country. No need to. Crowning these visits was the one made by the Iranian President to the Kingdom in early March.

I’m certain that both countries know the limitations of their new-found cooperation. Both claim that two issues have brought them together:

1. The Sunni-Shia tension; and

2. Lebanon.

In reality, however, both have motives other than the stated ones.

Iran wants to keep the bridges open to Saudi Arabia as a way of offsetting the harmful idiots’ foothold in the Gulf. The Iranians hope that their responsiveness to the concerns of the Saudis would result in hesitation on the part of these in adopting in full the anti-Iranian policies of the harmful idiots.

Iran is not naive as to think that the Saudis would disassociate themselves from the idiots. But the Saudis can be used to modulate the policies of these. And that would be no small feat. In addition, until such time when they meet face-to-face, the Iranians can use Bandar bin Sultan to send messages to Washington and receive messages back.

Saudi Arabia benefits in that it avoids Iranian interference in its affairs in the Shia-populated Eastern Province. Not to mention that Iran’s Shia arm extends farther than that–to Saadah in northwest Yemen, and to Bahrain. Governments such as the Saudi pride themselves on the relative peace and security they provide to their populace. Such is one of the more important pillars of their legitimacy. Disturbing that peace would erode one raison d’etre of their governance. Iran’s cooperation is therefore needed to avoid sectarian tension within the Kingdom and the concomitant world human rights attention such would bring onto the Saudi Shia.

REALIGNMENT: CO-OPTING ALL THE PALESTINIANS.

Diversifying alliances means going against the wishes of the Saudis’ foremost protectors–the harmful idiots.

In this case, the Saudis have lobbied to bridge the rift between Hamas and Fatah. They brought the leaders of the two movements to Mecca and had them sign what has become known as the Mecca Accord. Being so much in the black, it’s rumored that the Saudis had paid one billion dollars to the parties as incentive to sign on.

The idea for the Saudis was to heal the rifts within the Arab nation so as to rob foreign interventionists (American or Iranian) of their ability to destabilize one Arab society after another–including the Kingdom’s. In addition, feats such as the Mecca Accord help rehabilitate a Saudi ruling team which in no small way had stabbed in the back the Arabs of Iraq, the Sunni in particular.

The failure of the harmful idiots in Iraq has resulted in a new awareness. The Saudis now are tired of the machinations of the harmful idiots: Entrap Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait, all to provide the idiots an excuse to establish a foothold in the oil fields After all, fifty U.S. troops in Kuwait would’ve provided the trip wire necessary to warn Hussein not to invade. But that’s not what the entrapping idiots had in mind. The first entrapment worked relatively well. The second backfired really bad.

The Mecca Accord ran smack against the wishes of the harmful idiots. These had been angling for a full-scale intra-Palestinian civil war. In that the idiots had (and should still have) the assistance of Jordan’s King Abdallah II. Haaretz, the Israeli daily, reported on or about February 19/20 that the Mecca Accord had pre-empted a secret plan by the Jordanian King to weaken Hamas and mediate a peace accord between Israel and the "moderate" Arab countries. The plan would have entailed a secret agreement between the Israelis and Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, followed by early elections, and so on.

Problem: a full-fledged intra-Palestinian civil war would’ve ensued, for certain. Not that the Jordanian King would've cared. Lucky for the Palestinians, the Saudis for once had it right. Thank the Saudi public for that.


REALIGNMENT: BEFRIENDING RUSSIA

I have covered this in an earlier post. "Telltales..."


REALIGNMENT: HUGGING THE ISRAELIS AND HOPING FOR THE BEST

I have covered this subject in a couple of earlier posts. Essentially, the Saudis have been dispatching their princes, competing to become kings, to flirt with the Israelis and the American Jewish community. In addition, Saudi intelligence recently dispatched al-Hayat to interview Martin Indik (sp.), a flirtatious move towards an Israel-obsessed man and his newly-Israel-obsessed Brookings Institution.

What do the Saudis hope to achieve?

Maybe some of them believe that the defusion of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis would rob Iran of such a potent issue around which the Islamic Republic is able to mobilize the Arab Street. (They have stated as much.) That the Israelis would do the right thing and help in the establishment of a Palestinian state. This, however, is outrageously naive. Why would the Israelis want to accommodate the Saudis? The Iranian "threat" has been taken care of . The Israelis (and the Gulf Arabs) have recruited a huge mercenary army, the American, to be at their service to contain Iran, if not defeat it. Why then would the Israelis be accommodative? Do the Saudis really believe that then Crown Prince Abdallah’s 2002 peace initiative is enough of a carrot to motivate the Israelis to do the right thing? The initiative has no teeth–no armed forces to back it up, no intifadha, no missiles flying above the apartheid wall--no immediacy whatsoever.

Add to this foolishness the fact that any hope of having the United States place appropriate pressure on the Israelis should be defused by the American Israel lobby (the Martin Indiks) and the very blindness of a American polity that, when it comes to the Arab World, is iron-clad Judeo-Evangelical in its bias.

Any deal where Israel doesn’t return all Arab lands in full, to June 4, 1967, and pay (through the idiots and the Europeans) substantial reparations to the refugees and to Lebanon, would be a raw one and should result in a popular backlash within Saudi Arabia, among the Palestinians, and in the entire Arab World. Not to mention that the Saudis will be blamed for having negotiated for the Palestinians and begot such a raw deal. After all, the Palestinians are holding on to the right of return. And no non-Palestinian Arab should negotiate that away. (As an attorney who’s been involved in civil cases, with the assistance of competent colleagues, I can tell you that the insistence on the right of return, even if only a superficial stand, should get the
Palestinians and Lebanon way more Euros than otherwise.)

Besides, this flirtation with the Israelis and the American Jewish community, without Syria’s consent, is bound to backfire. It runs counter to the very policy the Saudis are trying to promulgate: to evolve a united Arab stand on the security of the Arab World. How could such a policy succeed when it ignores one Arab party whose very land is occupied by the Israelis?

Here, the Saudis royals run the risk of looking like traitors to their Street. Iran knows that. Too, it knows that holding on to Syria fails the very policies by the Saudis to exclude it as Shia in a Sunni world and as Persian in an Arab one. Knowledge, unhindered by wishful thinking, is power.

REALIGNMENT: EVOLVING A FRONT OF SUNNI NATION STATES TO CONTAIN IRAN

Another attempt (lame) by Saudi Arabia to diversify its alliances became apparent in the latter part of February. Meeting in Pakistan were representatives of the following countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and Egypt. Unhappy that it was left out (that was the idea), and aware that this new axis is meant to contain it, Iran unleashed against it accusing the Sunni summit of planning to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

DISARRAY AND REALIGNMENT--PART I

first ruf drapht

THE HARMFUL IDIOTS TRY TO HAND OVER IRAQ TO AYAD ALLAWI

The de facto defeat in Iraq has spurred a last-ditch effort by the harmful idiots to salvage the colonization of that country. The plan, it seems, is to rein in the violence in Baghdad and the Anbar province enough to allow Ayad Allawi, the CIA man, or one of his generals, to take over. This plan has the support of the Arab protectorates of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE as illustrated (obliquely perhaps) by the convening by the State Department chief harmful idiot in Jordan, on or about February 20, of the intelligence services chiefs of these countries. The Arab press commented that these chiefs joined their voices to that of the harmful idiot in picking Allawi as the savior of the idiots’ Iraq project.

U.S. TROOPS: MERCENARIES FOR ISRAEL...AND KUWAIT, SAUDI ARABIA...

In essence, now, we’re conducting war in Iraq no longer solely for the sake of Israel and oil. We’re now fighting for these and for the Gulf protectorates. Ours has become a mercenary army serving the Israelis early in the invasion of the Arab country; and now serving both the Israelis and the Sunni governments of the Gulf countries.

AN IMPRECISE PLAN

Mr. Allawi headed back to Baghdad, soon into the start of the new security plan, as if to oversee it. U.S. troops are fanning out across Baghdad, and should soon be pouring into the Anbar province. The idea is to pave the way for the Allawi people to take over a country which level of turmoil is more-or-less acceptable. I don’t believe the harmful idiots really know what that level is. The only logical inference I can make is that they want to pacify the country well enough to lessen the severity of the backlash against the troops should they bomb Iran.

SO MANY OBSTACLES

The harmful idiots face huge obstacles. Even the Hakims, likely on the payroll, are still playing up to Iran, the double agents they are. Hence the arrest of Abdel Aziz Hakim’s son by US troops as he returned from Iran on or about February 23. If you’d recall, back in December, the U.S. had detained two Iranian security officials at the home of a politician associated with Hakim.

MALIKI’S BAD DREAM: HOW TO AVOID BEING LYNCHED

Maliki ‘s confused. He would like nothing more than have a Shiite-controlled Iraq, fully in alliance with the U.S., where he’s making tons of money from U.S. oil companies as agent for the Bush-Cheney Carlysle Group II. Likely he wouldn’t mind playing second fiddle to Allawi. But he needs to be extra cautious since the harmful idiots aren’t in control, and are unlikely to ever be.
Though I don’t know much about his family life, I suspect senor Maliki has one and he would rather have them all in England or Detroit, instead of buried in a cemetery. (Or in San Diego, to where the Iraqi community has been moving for a couple of decades–away from the balmy Detroit winters and the thriving auto industry.)

In essence, therefore, Mr. Maliki is hedging his bets. He’d hate to see a noose around his neck where the harmful idiots would deliver him to Al-Qaeda, their modus operandi for for slaves ("assets") who stop complying. Nor would he want his children to see his body dragged alive, or as corpse, across the streets of Baghdad, a la Nuri as-Said. He is, in short, in a defensive posture.

Maliki's inability to join the harmful idiots all the way has turned these against him. They distrust him so immensely. To illustrate: On or about February 27, CIA officers were said to have prevented him and Muwaffaq al-Rabi’i from entering the Iran Section of the Hostile Activities Division of the Iraqi intelligence services’ building in the green zone. Over our dead bodies, said the CIA men and their Iraqi helpers who, too, will be in San Diego in a few years, fishing for Mackerel off the pier at Mission Bay.

SADR AND MOST COMMANDERS BID BAGHDAD GOODBYE

Meanwhile, the harmful idiots have failed to grab Sadr and most of his commanders, as these have disappeared in the towns of the south --as predicted by this blog. Melted away, you could say. They will re-emerge, take my word, should the Sunni insurgency weaken. And when they do, they will not forget who had sided against them. Hence the likelihood eventually of an intra-Shia civil war. The hilarious–oops, I meant idiotic-- part is that the harmful idiots are going after Sadr who, in the end, would be a way better candidate to sway the Iraqi Arab Shia away from Iran than anyone else. Allawi can’t move the masses; Hakim is an Iranian agent; Dawa, Iranian, is fractured and lost. Who else but Sadr can command the allegiance of the Arab Iraqi Shia masses?

(Too, it matters little that U.S. troops would arrest a Mahdi commander now and then. Each commander who disappears has ten others who would apply for his post. Such posts bring prestige upon their holders, and with prestige comes reproductive access. So, give up.)

BAR THE ANBAR!

In the Anbar, the harmful idiots , probably with help from the Jordanians–the two sets of harmful idiots who, to help their beloved Israel avoid a Palestinian state, destroyed (annihilated, really) Lebanon--are playing for an intra -Sunni civil war: the clans against al-Qaeda and allied groups. Brother against brother.

What the idiots don’t seem to account for is that the intra-Sunni civil war will not result in a victory for the clans, so as to deliver that province to Allawi. At best (superficially) for the idiots, the war will be internecine. The resulting civil war should provide yet a more hospitable environment for al-Qaeda to the point where that organization would base itself in Iraq, fully or nearly so. (Already there’s news that al-Qaeda is moving its headquarters to Iraq.) In other words, a Sunni war of liberation against occupying troops, or one against the Shia, would have kept the Sunni ranks relatively united. In the end, such would have lent itself better to an eventual compromise for peace in Iraq. But an intra-Sunni civil war should mean the opposite. It’ll be the fertile grounds terror groups would need to thrive. Consider Afghanistan before September 11. Consider Somalia.

(to be continued...)