Tuesday, May 29, 2007

A SAUDI-SYRIAN WAR IN LEBANON.

Aroughandnotsosummerlikedraft

I CAN SEE INTO THE FUTURE. NOT ALWAYS. ALWAYS. PERHAPS NOW AND THEN. IN JULY 2006?

(Written in July 2006:)


"Syria wants its Joulan Heights back. Any compromise that does not obtain these, fully, see a Palestinian state on all of the 1967 lands, and pay reparations that are acceptable to the refugees and to Lebanon, would spell the end of the Syrian government.

"Lebanon is a card in Syria’s hand to achieve the above. Tragic for Lebanon, but it’s stuck. Has been since 1967, ever since the local bullies (Israel and Syria) and the harmful idiots have been waging their wars.

"Syria has lots of influence in Lebanon. It has...

(...)

"And it has the Palestinian refugees, over 400,000 of them... Should Syria and Hezbollah decide to escalate, they should be able to unleash a Palestinian army in Lebanon....

(...)

"(...) The Secretary General of Fateh in Lebanon, Sultan Abu Aynayn, just gave SaudiPolitics another predictive victory. He announced that the Palestinian factions (al-fasael) will fight the Israelis should these come close to the refugee camps. That, my dears, is an escalation, or a pre-escalation–a message to the racist and harmful idiots that Lebanon will slip into wars which their sophomoric plans had not accounted for.

"These Palestinian refugees should want nothing less than to face off with the Israelis in a protracted guerrilla war in the south.

"Syria’s unconventional power therefore is quite impressive."



BACK TO THE FUTURE: ON THE CURRENT TURMOIL.

The recent bloody turmoil in Lebanon, if it continues, should go a long way in neutralizing Saudi Arabia’s policy of fostering a united Sunni front against Iran and the Arab Shia. There’s no such thing as a united Sunni front without Palestine. In other words, whoever champions the Palestine cause in a genuine fashion wins the hearts of the Arab Sunni.

Hence the most recent anti-Israel statements by Iran’s President.

In Lebanon, should the fighting between the Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam escalate, it likely would spill over to other camps. The death of innocent Palestinian civilians should break the back of the Saudi-funded united Sunni front. And that’s one way of interpreting that turmoil.

This interpretation, in SPC’s view, is more weighty than the one that highlights the effort to thwart the international tribunal. After all, the tribunal will or will not be formed in accordance with Russia’s wishes–whether it would vote for, veto, or abstain–and not because Lebanon is on fire. (Saad Hariri had made at least one trip to Moscow. Would a couple of hundreds of million of U.S. dollars from Saudi Arabia. deposited for the Rusian President in a secret Swiss bank account, define the Russia vote on the Security Council? Is this feasible in Russia? I don't know. But you can bet the farm that Saudi Arabia and Hariri have either tried or thought about trying.)

Burning down Lebanon, in the end, is something that no one can afford: Saudi Arabia and its proxies will lose their money and their foothold, but so will many of the Shia who, too, have a lot of money in the small country.

Worse of all: Fighting, if it spreads, could result in abject failure on the part of the Lebanese army. Why? When the Maronites controlled that army, there were a few towns which provided rank-and-file Maronite soldiers to fight–some in the Akkar region; some in the Beqaa. The army now relies on Shia recruits. Accordingly,

1. The Shia recruits would hardly want to fight for a government with which both Hezbollah and Amal, the main Shia political parties, are dissatisfied.

2. The Christian recruits aren’t many. Those who had enrolled in the army would be foolish to lose life and limb to advance the agenda of a Saudi-supported Sunni government. Why? This de facto Hariri government has sunk it in a disastrous debt, to the tune of $42 billion. Most of this money was pocketed by the lavishly corrupt thieves-proxies of Saudi Arabia and the harmful idiots.


Note: there’s the possibility that some Christian operatives of the harmful idiot and the Israelis, some of a couple of insignificant political leaders, and some intelligence operatives of regional countries (e.g., Jordan), would act to catalyze fighting between the army and the Palestinian camps. Big mistake–since the army should be unlikely (I’m talking high probability) to succeed, and should lose hundreds of soldiers while plunging the country into an active, albeit low-intensity, civil war.

3. The Sunni recruits are few and come mostly from north Lebanon, where the Islamists have blossomed thanks to Hariri and Saudi money. (See below.) Should the fighting spread, I suspect that these would be reluctant to fight other Sunni. At the risk of generalizing, the Sunni of Lebanon are not known for their fighting rage. In 1975, Sunni leaders used the PLO armies as theirs. Now, Mr Hariri, Bandar bin Sultan, and the harmful idiots have tried to re-create a Sunni Palestinian army to balance Hezbollah. Syria and Iran turned that army against the idiots and should be able to use it to break the back of the cherished anti-Iran and anti-Arab Shia front the idiots had been trying to evolve.

4. The Druze soldiers. Don’t make me laugh. There probably 2 ½ of them!

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Iraqi Paper Pulls Story About Kidnaped Soldiers.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: 2:38PM: Almalaf has pulled the story below. It gave no reasons.

SPC interrupts its non-journalistic style to report the following:

www.almalaf.net, an Iraqi e-newspaper close to the Jordanians (and, indirectly, to the harmful idiots), wrote today that "unconfirmed news said that Saturday two corpses found... belonged to two of the American soldiers kidnaped last Sunday." (Emphasis added.)

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

THE GULF OF PERSIA ARREST-O-LUTION*

(To rhyme with "The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.")


yetanotherroughdraft with and update

UPDATE--5/19/07

The more I think about the Iranian divers' incident (see below) the more I realize that the Bush Administration is stuck in the mode of thinking that has proven so disastrous. It seems that the war this administration is fighting isn't in the Middle East but here, on the home front.

Superficially, the Bush Administration seems to have not given up on the idea of mobilizing the American public into waging a full-scale war on Iran. To that end, the harmful idiots have been making use of the various Arab government institutions they control--military and intelligence. Gulf Arab governments have given the harmful idiots near-total freedom to operate within these institutions. These harmful ones have used this freedom mostly to try to entrap Iran into a war with the United States.

Superficially, again, the idea is to mobilize the American public to accept a long-term war on Iran. But is this really what's going on? Has this been thought out? It couldn't have been, since Iraq has shown that order is way preferable to chaos, and better serves America's interest and the interest of the regional allies. A war with Iran should spread chaos over a much wider area of the Middle East and the Gulf.

Unless the Bush Administration is aching for a limited gun fight with the Islamic Republic, and not a full-scale war. For purely electoral reasons? To energize the right-wing base of the Republican Party? Use American blood and treasure to improve a political party's chances in elections?

We should all be thankful that the Iranians are smart.


A GULF OF PERSIA (to rhyme with "Gulf of Tonkin") INCIDENT

On or about May 7, 2007, the Navy of the United Arab Emirates arrested twelve Iranian divers off the contested island of Abu Musa. This took place days before the arrival in the UAE on a state visit of the Iranian President, as if to torpedo that visit, and the expected visit of Vice President Cheney.

To understand the immediate reasons behind the arrest of the Iranian divers it helps to place the matter into the wider contest--the ceaseless effort by the Bush Administration to mobilize–even regiment–the Arab Gulf countries into a solid anti-Iran front.

The "Gulf of Persia Arrest-O-lution" was likely a lame attempt by the harmful idiots to set up Iran. (The UAE now is a beehive filled with harmful idiots’ intelligence officers and Iranian "businessmen.") Should Iran have reacted violently, Ahmadi Nejad’s visit would've been cancelled. That would've eliminated competition to Mr. Cheney. The Gulf countries as a result would've opened their ears wider to Mr. Cheney’s instructions to them. Iran would've been such a scary and immediate threat, which would've made his job that much easier: to counsel/prod them to buttress their ranks in facing off with the Islamic Republic. Under the leadership of the harmful idiots, of course.

A fringe benefit: The U.S. Fifth Fleet (based in nearby Bahrain) could've become involved in defending the UAE, maybe enough to silence the domestic voices that want withdrawal from Iraq. Maybe even more: Rally-around-the-flag--rally around the Bush Administration.

AN OLD TRICK...TOO OLD.

It didn’t work. The Iranians are dumb. Not. They had witnessed the harmful idiots and Kuwaiti intelligence set up Saddam Hussein more than once, and they weren’t gonna fall for this. More recently, they’ve seen Saudi Arabia and Kuwait set them up–with the assistance of the harmful idiots. And they didn’t fall into these traps, either. (SPC' analysis--I believe-- was first to uncover these sophomoric attempts at entrapment! My apologies to sophomores.)

Why should Iran react to anything of the kind? Iran watches as the Bush Administration sinks deeper into the Iraq quagmire. And it’s tickled–justifiably.

CHENEY SPINS IN THE DESERT WINDS: THE SANCTIONS' GENERATION

Cheney lectures Maliki on the importance of reconciling with the Baathists.

What Baathists?

Earth to Cheney: Were you thinking of those Baathists whose leader you helped lynch? Or were you referring to the Baathists who now are on your payroll, via Jordan, the new (Sunni) Ahmad Jarabis? These, my dear, are no longer as influential as they once were. If anything, I'd say they're marginal--but for the occasional car bomb they can place here or there. The "sanctions’ generation"--the young ones you unleashed, who grew up under the American-championed sanctions--have their say too. And I suspect they hold the initiative. (Recently, on or about May 14, Iraqi officials admitted that Al Qaeda–likely made up mostly of the sanctions’ generation–is in control of the province of Diyali.)

WE’RE TOO AFFLUENT TO GO THROUGH A WAR

Across the board, the Gulf leaders–including those of the UAE–told Cheney that they didn’t want an American military confrontation with Iran. That, at least, was their public position. But to have the UAE Navy arrest the Iranian divers says that the UAE leadership either didn't have full control over its armed services or, more likely, that it was allowing the harmful idiots to operate relatively freely within these services. After all, the UAE was/is an American protectorate.

The public position was meant in part for Iranian consumption. They likely wouldn’t mind a war to weaken the Islamic Republic, but they would want that war to be waged from Iran’s opposite border, not from the one on the Perabasian Gulf. A sort of rich people daydreaming. At any rate, the Iranian divers were soon released and all was forgotten. The no-war position of the UAE and other Gulf countries, all in all, likely was genuine, especially if war were to be conducted from their side of the Gulf. Desalination provides the Gulf countries most of their water. A war could result in major pollution in the Perabesian Gulf. Too much to risk.

In addition, the income bonanza from high oil prices has afforded the Gulf Arabs a lifestyle that we can only dream of here in the United States. Fear of investing in the U.S. after September 11, lest the American government freezes this or that Gulf Arab account, has driven the Gulf Arabs to invest at home–or in such places as Turkey. Here’s an example: Bawadi, a project for a tourist hotel-convention center in Dubai, will cost an estimated $54 bn. It’s expected to be the largest of its kind in the world, and will include certainly the largest mall in the world.

The Gulf Arabs know that this affluence will be jeopardized should an American-Iranian war erupt. The money should run away to safety all over the globe.

TORPEDOING SAUDI EFFORTS

Not expecting any flexibility or creativity from the Bush Administration, the Gulf Arabs by now are waiting for a new administration, while humoring Rice and Cheney. Saudi Arabia, for instance, had come to terms with the idea that Hamas is here to stay and had engineered a smart Mecca Accord between that organization and the pro-Western Fatah. But the Bush Administration continues to support Israel’s sanctions against the occupied territories to fail the Hamas-Fatah unity government.

The result: Hamas re-took the initiative. It set off fighting with Fatah and launched rockets into Israel. Hamas wasn't about to capitulate to an embargo: intra-fighting confuses the issues so as to lift the blame of starvation off the shoulders of the Hamas leaders. Without the fighting, they almost certainly would've been blamed for the stop in cargo delivery--the starvation of the Palestinians. With the fighting, Fatah ends up sharing a part of the blame.

Israel starves the West Bank and Gaza, establishes de facto cantons in the former, and expects "Arab" understanding. But patience is running thin. One can sense the frustration of Saud Al-Faisal when he commented recently in Brussels that Israel should no longer expect to receive without giving. You can’t refuse to deal with Abu Mazin, weaken him as a result, see Hamas sweep elections (also as a result), reverse course to re-build Abu Mazin’s stature, while starving the Palestinians....and expect the Gulf Arabs to stand with Israel’s ally in the same trench, with enthusiasm, against Iran. Something's got to give.

SUBJUGATING SAUDI FOREIGN POLICY?

There’s a possibility that the harmful idiots are trying to strong arm the Saudis by re-opening in the U.S. the BAE Systems bribery investigation, which Tony Blair had killed in Britain. BAE Systems, the Pentagon’s largest foreign contractor–actually it seems to be a hybrid British-American company-- through which the Saudis had been passing protection money to the U.S.--had been under investigation by the Serious fraud Office (SFO) in the U.K. The SFO suspected the British-American company of bribing Saudi officials by transferring money into their bank accounts in Switzerland. The Saudi government placed heavy pressure on Tony Blair, threatening to cancel a gargantuan ($10bn-$70bn) arms deal. As a result, the SFO investigation came to an abrupt end.

Congressional staffers now are picking up the issue. It’s unclear whether this is an attempt by the harmful idiots to dominate Saudi foreign policy totally and fully. (Saudi foreign policy is fairly subjugated, but has been showing signs of independence recently–the Mecca Accord, the Sudan-Chad agreement-- thanks to the confidence borne out of extreme wealth and the paralysis of the U.S., sinking deeper into the quicksands of Iraq–and Iran.) Or whether the Congressional staffers are setting off something out of genuine concern.

In case the former: It should be abundantly clear to all that the Saudi public and elite likely already know who in their government had received the bribery money. Launching an investigation in the U.S. therefore would hardly result in any embarrassment in the kingdom. (The Kingdom’s yearly income is about $200 bn–so the opposition has all but nearly evaporated. When this newsletter began, that income had hovered around $55 bn., and the opposition was vibrant.) In addition, it’s relatively easy and credible to point the finger at the Israel lobby as being behind the congressional investigation, if one were launched–a tit-for-tat for the Mecca Accord.

Monday, May 14, 2007

FLASHBACK: WAR ON ARAB AND MUSLIM WOMEN.

OVER THREE YEARS AGO...

Over three years ago, this newsletter had asserted that the chief victim of the right-wing Judeo-Evangelical war on Arab Iraq would be women. Here’s an excerpt from "Iran Will Launch a Tet-Like Offensive," published on or about January 15, 2004:

"[A]ll in that region are reverting...to Islam (including our unwilling protectorate: Iraq) and away from the progress they had made. The chief victim: women. For Islam, when used to resist a total war of subjugation, can hardly afford to be liberal."


DU’UA

Here’s an excerpt of an interview on May 15, 2007, by Amy Goodman, the host of Democracy Now, with Yanar Mohammed, the founder of the Organization For Women’s Freedom in Iraq. The interview concerned Du’ua Khalil Aswad.

Amy Goodman:

"...Du’ua Khalil Aswad, from a minority Kurdish religious group, Yezidi, was condemned to an ‘honor killing’ by men in her family and hardliners due to her relationship with a Sunni Muslim. She had taken shelter in the house of a Yezidi tribal leader in Bashika, near the northern capital of Mosul. Eight or nine men stormed the house and dragged Ms. Aswad into the street where they hurled stones at her for half an hour. Reports say that local security forces saw the attack but did not try to stop it. "


Yanar Mohammed:

"Honor killing is becoming something to celebrate in Iraq now...When a young woman [Du’a Khalil Aswad] is (should’ve been "was") killed...[I]t was hundreds of males standing around [her]. None of them helped, but they were very keen on photographing the scene, on videotaping it on their cell phones...

"So what happened in this new Iraq, the so-called liberation of Iraq has turned women into refugees in their country . Millions of us are vulnerable to be killed, and all our lives are threatened, and there is nobody to secure our lives for us. The policemen were standing and watching; and actually they helped to get the young girl back to the place where she was killed."

Sunday, May 13, 2007

FLASHBACK: A TEXAS CHRISTIAN LYNCHES AN ARAB MUSLIM

From "The Arab Street Marches Forward," December 21, 2005


"[T]he [American] generals in the end will have to murder Mr. [Saddam] Hussein. After all, they are Mr. Bush’s men, and Mr. Bush governed Texas, the state that has executed more fellow Christians than any other. If the generals don’t kill him, they would risk the wrath of Iran’s Shia agents, the very ones who eased us into quagmire.

"(U.S. Senator Arlen Specter should* speed up the process by instructing the judges. Good going, Senator.)"




*I had used "would" by mistake.

Monday, May 07, 2007

AL QAEDA: WHY GO AFTER THE ARAB SHIA?

roughgghdrrdraftfirstthensecond

A Book Review

Abdel Bari Atwan, Al Qaeda. (Berkeley, California: University of California Press, 2006.)

"SHEIK" OSAMA BIN LADEN (OBL)

There was a time when calling Osama bin Laden "Sheik," a title of substantial religious significance, would nauseate me. Abdel Bari Atwan would do just that in his newspaper, al-Quds al-Arabi.

Then came Iraq. A huge and vicious military-industrial complex, mechanical and systematic, lacking any humanity, presided over by an oil administration, unleashed a tsunami of racism, hate, and destruction against a defenseless Arab country. A Messianic Evangelical President and a cynical Vice, who’s adopted, and was adopted by a large swath of the American Jewish community, unleashed a high-tech killing machine against a foe of Israel. The President and his Vice returned the Arab and Muslim country to the stone age, pleasing other Israeli-anchored sadists to no end.

A relatively humane administration had preceded the sadistic one. But it ran scared of the poisonous American Right. To keep the right-wing beast at bay, the Clinton Administration had continued to champion sanctions to emaciate the Arab and Muslim country. Its secretary of State, living in the comfort of the nation’s capital, had said that the death of half a million Iraqi (Arab) children was a price worth paying to get rid of Saddam Hussein. So culturally and racially biased she was that she didn’t think for a moment about how she would react had these children been Jewish or European. For even the left-of-center Clinton Administration, headed by a smart President, was Israel-anchored--racist, at heart, though unaware of it-- anti-Arab, and anti-Muslim. It just didn’t spew the venom of the Jewish and Christian Right.

Abdel Bari Atwan, who continued to call Osam bin Laden "Sheik" in his newspaper, even after September 11, still referred to George W. Bush as "President," and to Condoleezza Rice as "as-Sayyidah"–Madam (Secretary.) Equality for both sadists and the incopmpetent: Osama, George, and Condoleezza. As a result, I could no longer be angry with Mr. Atwan for his reference to OBL as "Sheik." If George Bush was President and C. Rice Madam Secretary, even after the sadistic annihilation of an Arab country and the creation of thousands of orphans, then certainly OBL was Sheik. They’re all heartless people–all lacking in empathy--sadistic psychopaths, mediocre human beings with titles.

MR ATWAN WRITES ABOUT AL QAEDA

I wasn’t into yet another book about al Qaeda. It interested me little. But I picked it up anyway. Why?

In part because Mr. Atwan is a superb analyst; in part because I’ve classified him as a Palestinian Arab nationalist, with Islamic leanings. So I should get an insider view, so to speak. In part, too, because I’ve done one Arab civil war and had done it thoroughly. So I was aware that parties to conflicts would set off sectarian massacres to achieve political ends. Or to stem the march of history against them.

Most of all, however, I needed an answer from Abdel Bari about the reasons behind al Qaeda’s tactic of massacring Shia wholesale.

I was aware that the Baath itself had every reason to ignite a civil war; and I believe it did. I thought it waited a tad too long. Why wait until the occupier had his way? Why not start the civil war even before he had entered the country?

In reality, however, it wasn’t the Baath that waited too long. It was me, impatient me, who expected parties and groups to be as efficient as I. I’ve been accused of efficiency way too many times. Being (allegedly) efficient--I still deny it-- I have a tendency to predict the next move by this or that party–not so much because of analytical acumen, but because of what I suspect is my common sense.

In Iraq, I figured the way for the Baath to defeat the harmful idiots would be to imitate Hizbollah in south Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s–suicide and car bombings, and the infamous IEDs. The better weapon, however, would be sectarian massacres if only to confuse the harmful idiots and turn their occupation into a management/policing nightmare.

The harmful idiots having been invited into Iraq by Shia proxies of Iran, the Baath figured it would ignite the civil war as a way of forcing Arab Sunni allies of the harmful idiots (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE...), who had colluded against the Iraqi Sunni, into taking sides. Their people fuming, these Uncle Toms, mediocre as their master, weren’t about to take Iran’s side, the side of the Shia. the Baath knew that.

Not to mention that the Baath likely had hopes which common-sense-me didn’t share. The Baath probably had thought that the harmful idiots would have some sense and would hug the Iraqi generals, give their children scholarships at SUNY-Buffalo, and keep them in power with the condition of not allowing Saddam back into politics and opening Iraqi oil fields to American oil companies, nearly exclusively. (They'd give Tony Blair some bits.) But I knew better. The occupier went into Iraq not only for oil, but to service Israel, too. The Bush Administration needed a solid popular base for the invasion and it found it in the relative cohesion of a swath of the American Jewish community, which forever is spinning its consensus around Israel and its needs. So the administration added Israel’s welfare to its oil and imperial hegemony agenda, if only to secure that base. (Right wing informants in that community proved to be easy recruits to spy on insignificant me--but no one who has anything to do with Israel is insignificant to this neurotic and sleazy bunch--See Chance Encounters.) The occupier therefore was blinded by its Israel bias, and wasn’t about to have common sense. It had internalized the Jewish Right’s agenda, a part of which was seeking revenge on behalf of Israel.

But, as things now stand, the greater majority of Iraqis has come to terms with the need for the harmful idiots to order the troops out of their country. Why is it then that "rational" al Qaeda continues on with its massacres of Shia? Can’t it see that the time has come to change strategy and tactics?

I could've cut to the chase and moved on to chapter 6 in the book, "Al Qaeda in Iraq," to seek answers. But I didn’t. There were other things Abdel Bari could teach me. So I read the entire book.

HOW DID IT ALL TURN ISLAMIC?

As a former Arab nationalist, when young, a participant-observer, without any particular affiliation, I really wanted to know how the heck the Arab Street had turned Islamic. I remember as President of the Arab Cultural Club in grad school, at my university, controlling a great budget of no more than $300.00 (!), that Arab students had started splitting off. After Camp David, the Egyptian students were first to quit the Arab Club. Then the Lebanese, who became even more fond of referring to themselves as "Christian" or "Muslim," then the others. The Baath had plenty of "students" at my university, mostly physicians and dentists. (If you had received your medical degree from Russia--then the Soviet Union--, the Baathist state made it a condition that you either re-enrolled at a Western medical/dental school, or you worked as a nurse in Iraq.) They too disappeared. I was fond of calling them fascists, but they had never staged a walkout because of my hostility. They were cool about it. Little did I know.

Until one day, I reported to a meeting of the club with my roommate, now a dean at an Arab university, and we were the only ones at the meeting. The club had lost the Egyptians and the Lebanese–and others. And now the Iraqis and their Arab allies had failed to appear. Was it because I had accused them of fascism? I thought they knew they were in fact fascists and had come to terms with it.

Lo and behold: I discovered later that the Baathists had decided to start their own Arab club, outside the university, letting go of the precious $300 the university had allotted to our cultural club. They had staged a coup against me and my roommate. I now was a president without a following. (This had not been the first coup they had staged. They were incredibly creative when it came to coups.)

I had thought that most people had gone parochial–Egyptian Copt v. Egyptian Muslim, Lebanese Christian v. Lebanese Muslim, and so on. Apparently, I was wrong. A smattering of Arabs had remained faithful to pan-Arabism–the ones who chose the Baath club over the university one.

Then, for years, I had lost interest. I woke up one day and all had turned Islamic–not Egyptian, not Lebanese, not Saudi–and what have you. Pan-Arab identity had been replaced with pan-Islamism. Could Abdel Bari shed light on that?

He did, in a way. Palestine, and then Iraq under sanctions, as expected, had figured highly in that transformation. Practically his entire book can be read as explaining that transformation. Not that he meant it as such. Men like Sayyid Qutb (1906-1966) and Taqi al-Din ibn Taymiyyah (1262-1328) , names I was familiar with but never thought their Islamic writings would carry the day, had. Mr. Atwan does an excellent job in providing a succinct yet terrifically helpful expose on the rise of political Islam. To me, having stayed away from Arab politics for a couple of decades, Mr. Atwan’s expose was a needed refresher.

OF CYBER-JIHAD AND DNA FINGERTPRINTING

Mr. Atwan dedicates an entire chapter to cyber-Jihad. It’s a fascinating chapter, but I won’t pretend that I understood it. Having been a victim of tracking via computer by what I’m certain was a foreign intelligence service, I had a keen interest in understanding this stuff. And I was impressed that Mr. Atwan did really understand it. I would try to delve into the chapter, again and again, but I would lose interest fast. That’s not to say that others shouldn’t delve into that chapter. I’m a dinosaur when it comes to this stuff. But those who are less intimidated by tech subjects should appreciate this chapter.

Oddly, I can complement Mr. Atwan’s chapter in one area, not internet-related, but nonetheless of importance. I have been finger-printed without my knowledge, by the same foreign intelligence service that was tracking me via a Phishing/Trojan virus scheme. (Please refer to the series, "Chance Encounters.) Recently, after attending a forensic seminar, I’ve started to suspect that the man who took my fingerprints, a right-wing Jewish informant, using treachery as he was a colleague, has possibly obtained my DNA print, too. I’m waiting to consult with a DNA expert–lawyers have access to these–about whether the method used by the right- wing informant is capable of lifting off not only fingerprints but a DNA print, too The answer should add tons of knowledge to the world of espionage that cyber-jihad in part seems to be about. What uses can the foreign intelligence service make of my DNA print? I’ll wait to hear from the expert.

Still, I need to ask whether Mr. Atwan had hired a consultant to understand this cyber-Jihad stuff. If he didn’t, then I raise my (recently-purchased, Made in China, baseball) hat to him.

AL QAEDA IN IRAQ

Okay, this subject, chapter six in the book, was the real reason I picked up the book in the first place.

Mr. Atwan’s expose persuades one that the Al Qaeda leadership is logical, systematic, and rational in drafting its strategy. While OBL had not agreed early on with al- Zarqawi’s tactic of massacring the Arab Shia, aiming for a full-scale civil war, he later acquiesced to the Jordanian’s scheme. He may not have had a choice. Al Qaeda men had killed Saudis and other Muslims inside the Kingdom. As a consequence, he had lost popularity and was becoming marginal. The Saudi state had waited for him to make his mistakes, and he did. Iraq therefore became al Qaeda’s best and only venue to re-enter the kingdom in a grand style. And it did, thanks to the harmful idiots–but in large part thanks to Zarqawi.

While Mr. Atwan doesn’t give a straight answer to my query, he does nonetheless provide keys to the answer.

Using the keys he provides, I’ll venture my own answer:

WHY KILL ARAB SHIA MUSLIMS?

Al Qaeda’s ideology is all about the umma–the Islamic nation. For now, the Shia are not perceived as part of this umma, for reasons that I suspect are in large part utilitarian. For now, the civil war is a necessary imperative to get the Americans to withdraw from Iraq. Killing American soldiers in-and-by-itself isn’t sufficient to force the Americans out. Too much oil is at stake, not to mention imperial hegemony over China, Russia, and Europe. Public opinion is not budging the current President. If anything, he’s escalated (the "surge"). There’s a perceived need therefore to supplant the war of resistance against the occupier with other steps that would increase his cost and bankrupt the American state. One of these steps is the civil war: to create a management nightmare for the harmful idiots. That management/policing nightmare should multiply the cost many-fold. Al Qaeda is after all rational.

Besides, without the civil war, the Americans can withdraw to bases away from population centers. These bases had been planned and their planning revealed in the Washington Post. (Atwan refers to the Post article.) If they do, U.S. troops should become difficult to reach, and that much more difficult to dislodge. By keeping the civil war going, under the eyes of the world, the American troops would have no choice but to intervene to stop it at times, and to fuel it at others–whatever the necessity of the day, to remain on top of the Iraqi oil fields. In short, the civil war prevents the occupiers from opting to withdraw to faraway and isolated bases. They’re stuck policing a civil war. If they withdraw to bases in the desert, they would leave their collaborators exposed and defenseless. (One Iraqi politician recently told an Arab paper–anonymously–that the Iraqi politicians don’t trust their own guards or any army or police, even inside the Green Zone.) . Al Qaeda therefore needs to keep the civil war at high pitch, if only to disallow the harmful idiots from ordering the troops into isolated bases and to keep the cost high for the occupier.

Put differently, keeping the civil war ablaze is al Qaeda’s way to define the battle with the Americans, not the other way around.

Not that the Americans themselves are not trying–to re-define the parameters of the war. With the help of Jordan , Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, they have succeeded in splitting the Sunni clans in and around Ramadi from the al Qaeda. (Al Qaeda just attacked in Ramadi, after I’ve written this.) They’ve created enough tension between the two as to risk an all-out intra-Sunni civil war. But the threat of an intra-Sunni civil war, to al-Qeda, makes the Sunni-Shia civil war that much more needed, as a means of keeping the Sunni together. Al Qaeda kills Shia; Shia death squads retaliate against all Sunni, including Ramadi clans and Islamic Party (a Saudi proxy, by now) sympathizers. These seek revenge against the Shia, putting themselves once again in the same camp as al Qaeda.

THE CIVIL WAR INTERSECTS WITH THE UMMA

Where Mr. Atwan is helpful is in reminding us that al Qaeda is dedicated to bringing the umma back together, whatever the tactics. Pushing his logic along, in the Iraqi context, I would say that waging a civil war with the Arab Shia, a good part of whom are linked intimately to Iran--many by necessity--brings in the umma into Iraq, re-defining the border of the latter. It’s no longer Iraq; it’s no longer a Shia majority against a Sunni minority. It’s a huge sea of a Sunni umma, extending from Indonesia to Mali and Nigeria, facing off with a Shia "minority."

And the umma has responded generously with "foreign" fighters. These have made their way from distant lands to blow themselves up to defend the umma. It’s no longer about Iraq. It’s about the Islamic umma, now defined as Sunni, without the Shia, for what seems to be utilitarian reasons–to increase the cost of the war to the harmful idiots and bankrupt us. Later, however, when the Americans are out, once and for all, the Shia could be welcomed back into the fold.

It’s too early to venture a guess about whether they’d accept the invitation.