THE IRAQ PROJECT FORGES FORWARD: DISMANTLING/SUBDUING THE SHIA STATE

firstrufdfdraft

NOTE: This post complements the October 7 article, “The (Eventual and Inescapable) Rise of Iraqi Arab Islamic Nationalism.)”


SUBDUING/DISMANTLING THE SHIA STATE

The current phase of the harmful idiots’ Iraq project is all about further splitting the Shias as prelude to subduing the Shia state and placing it under the authority of the harmful idiots’ Baath-revived shadow state. This (effectively ) Baath-revived state should have the support of multiple Arab Sunni militias. Saudi Arabia sponsors some of these (e.g., the Islamic Army–note Tariq al-Hashimi’s repeated visits to that country) and the harmful idiots sponsor others (note the upcoming visit here of the new head of the Sahwa Councils.)

In other words, the harmful idiots have been re-building a version of the Saddam Hussein state they had destroyed, which version they now seek to make dominant. (Oops, they said, over $2 trillion dollars later, sheer devastation, abject misery, and endless queues of Arab and American orphans. )

As a lesser and more realistic goal, the harmful idiots would want to clean up southern Iraq of any and all Sadrists and deliver that part of the federated state to the Supreme Islamic Council (SCI)–formerly the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). This southern state would be Shia, but relatively powerless in weapons and level of military organization against the harmful idiots’ controlled Baath-revived state. (I’ve called this state the “shadow state” in the October 7 post.)


WEAKENING THE SHIA STATE: GOING AFTER THE SADRISTS

A lot of money (I strongly suspect) is being forked over to SCIRI’s people. These now are going after the Sadrists, not always as SCIRI/Badr Corps or Shia state troops but, too, as Councils of Provinces–the harmful idiots’ subsidized counter-insurgency creation to mirror the Sahwas of Anbar. Salah al-Ubaidi, spokesman for the Sadrist Movement, recently (on or about 10/24) stated that “Shia parties and forces, members of the Councils of Provinces, are hounding members of the Sadrist Movement in the middle and in the south of the country. They are helping the occupation against the children of their own country.”


The US ambassador to occupied Iraq and his boss have recently made statements which in good part reveal that the harmful idiots are unleashing the financial and military power of the United States against the Sadrists. They are using the ruse that the US military operations are meant against rogue elements within the Sadrist Movement. No one is fooled.


WEAKENING THE SHIA STATE: BLUFFING AND NOT TO SCARE OFF IRAN (AND RUSSIA.)

The case can be made that the multi-layered campaign by the harmful idiots against Iran is meant more to neutralize Iran’s role among the Iraqi Shia ( the harmful idiots have adopted Saddam Hussein’s very same policy, after they had him lynched) than to stop that state from developing a nuclear weapon.


The multi-layered campaign: the sanctions recently announced by the harmful idiots’ Secretary of State against the Quds Force, the threats made by the harmful idiots’ Under Secretary of State on the Lehrer News Hour (10/26/07) under the guise of explaining the sanctions, the threats that the Israel-centric Vice President made on or about 10/20 at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy–an outfit which both As-Safir (Shia, left, Arab nationalist) and al-Quds al-Arabi (Sunni Islamist, mostly right-wing, Palestinian nationalist) identified as part of the Israel lobby), the threats made by a former high-ranking member of the Israeli military against Hizbollah, also made at the same Israel lobby outfit, and the threats made by Anthony Cordsman, in the form of warnings that the bombing of the Iranians would be far more harmful and effective that even they can imagine.

But more is afoot to intimidate Iran and neutralize its influence within the Shia state in Iraq. On or about 10/25/07, an Iranian Arabic e-daily featured an excerpt from reporting in the Persian-language Jumhuri Islami. That Iranian paper had revealed that US military jets had twice (Sunday and Tuesday) crossed into Iranian air space over the province of Khoramshahr. Other Iranian papers had reported the dispatch of balloons or drones (unclear) over Iranian territory by what they called the occupiers of Iraq. Jumhuri Islami voiced the alleged concern of the residents of Khoramshahr about the failure of the Iranian state to respond to the hostile acts.

The failure of the Iranian state to respond can be explained as follows: (1) The Iranian state wasn’t about to reveal the codes for its air defenses and will wait until the harmful idiots order a real attack. (The failure of the Iranian armed forces to “defend” against past intrusions may have led to the Israeli raid on northeastern Syria–to obtain these very same codes.) (2) Iran had been quite successful in correctly reading the endless array of traps set for it by the harmful idiots and their proxies (e.g., Kuwait, UAE). These traps were (and are) meant to draw Iran to react , to give the harmful idiots –superficially--the ability to mobilize the American public (the “rally-around-the-flag phenomenon) to strike inside Iran. (3) More likely, however, Iran’s concern wasn’t so much the rally-around-the-flag phenomenon–which is unlikely to materialize since very few believe the Bush Administration about anything– but its nuclear sites which it doesn’t want to be bombed–not until the job is done of balancing Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Basic balance of power/terror.


THE HARMFUL IDIOTS’ IRAQ SHIA PROJECT : INSTIGATING A FULL-SCALE INTRA-SHIA CIVIL WAR.

The harmful idiots have been unleashing the troops against Mahdi activists for quite a while now. Shia civilians as a result have been paying the price, killed and wounded, including children, since the Mahdi militants are bound to be found among their families and other civilians.

But the harmful idiots should be overwhelmed when trying to replicate their Anbar Sahwa “counter-insurgency” strategy to the Shia. Iran already on or about 10/7 had Ammar Hakim, the de facto head of SCI/SCIRI, and Sadr (or one of his lieutenants, I’m not sure) sign an agreement not to shed each other’s blood.

It should be reminded here that the perceived success of the Sahwa counter-insurgency stratagem (which the harmful idiots are replicating among the Shia) is likely temporary. It’s not really the surge that made it work. What made it work (for now) are first the HUGE amounts of bribes –I strongly suspect– paid to the tribes and clans, and the Saudi money paid to such groups as the Islamic Army.

A second reason for the perceived and temporary success of counter-insurgency among the Arab Sunni is the the imprisonment of over 20,000 Sunni young men–the revolutionary troops of the Arab Sunni community. (This is where the surge likely made a difference. Wait until the Arab Sunni find themselves defenseless without these.)

A third reason: the consensus (sophomorically hopeful) within the Sunni ranks that it’s time to let the Shia fight it out among each other, weaken each other, and allow the Sunni–-via the US--to re-take control of the country or, at a minimum, play an essential role in its running. This Sunni consensus seems to have concluded that the Arab Sunni resistance (including the dispatched Saudi fighters) already had achieved the goal of forcing the US to seek out an alliance with the Sunni Arabs and look at the Iran-supported Shia with a critical eye. Once the harmful idiots made that shift, the war on the Shia was deemed counter-productive. (This newsletter repeatedly had said that igniting the civil war was the Baath’s first and best line of defense against the troops dispatched by the harmful idiots.) This thinking -- that the harmful idiots will return the Sunni to power -- is a pipe dream, of course, but as a quality friend of mine always reminds me: “Hope springs eternal.” -- Please refer to the October 7 post, “The (eventual and Inescapable) Rise...” for a fuller treatment.)

Fourth, Both Iran and Syria have drawn an alliance with the Maliki government and, accordingly, were not about to seek to de-stabilize it–an ally--any longer.

(The criticism of Maliki on Capitol Hill should be seen from this perspective -- that he and the Shia state he heads is not an ally of the harmful idiots but of Iran; not to mention that his state has been granting contracts to Iran and China and has ordered Chinese weapons. Hence yet another reason for the perceived need by the harmful idiots to weaken that state and subdue it.)


These elements which made counter-insurgency work among the Sunni don’t find their match among the Shia. While the Sunni had achieved their end by forcing the US to adopt them (so to speak), the Shia lost when the US did exactly that -- adopt the Sunni. Even Ammar Hakim (SCIRI) should appreciate that division among the Shia would effectively rob the Shia of their majority status and weaken them vis-a-vis the harmful idiots’ Baath-revived shadow state. The benefit for the reactionary Sunni of an alliance with the United States (unlimited money, arms) far outweighed the cost -- a relatively light civil war. But, for the Shia, there's hardly any benefit. (They control the oil so they already have unlimited money.)

So, for the Shia, it’ll certainly be all about cost. Their civil war, if anything, will no be light but bloody and endless. It’ll put an end to their majority status. In other words, a civil war will compromise the historic gains the Shia had made in Iraq, undreamed of before the harmful idiots had ordered the invasion. Squander those gains for what? To help the harmful idiots control oil which now is theirs and bring the Sunni Baath back to power?


WILL THE HARMFUL IDIOTS SUCCEED IN STOKING THE INTRA-SHIA CIVIL WAR?


The harmful idiots have precious little time to ignite the Shia civil war, full steam, and have the Shia version of the reactionary and backward tribal Sahwas (see above) rein in the Sadrists. (You wouldn’t want to be a woman among these tribes; they’ll slit your throat without any repercussions for any sign of disobeying the men in your extended family! Congrats to the harmful idiots for these alliances.) Why precious little time? Because U.S. generals are breathing down the harmful idiots’ necks about armed forces that need rejuvenation, re-training, new hardware, and what have you. Iraq has drained these forces and made them unavailable for deployment in other parts of the world. Iran is right there, just there! And it will do its utmost not to allow the intra-Shia civil war to rage. (The Syrian government a couple of years ago took in the children of Syrian Kurdish leaders. These Kurdish leaders were stirring trouble. The Syrian authorities placed their children in colleges in Damascus. Treated them very well. But the Syrian Kurdish leaders, whose children were now attending college in Damascus, got the message and knew not to buy any longer into the harmful idiots’ efforts to de-stabilize the Arab government.)

Iran can wait. And it’ll watch Ammar Hakim from nearby. Iran has way more time than the harmful idiots, less distance to Iraq, and ample money-- since tension (and the glutting of dollars by the harmful idiots) continues to raise oil prices and enrich its state.

THE HARMFUL IDIOTS AND THEIR JORDANIANS

not so rough draft WITH ADDED EXPLANATION
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Oh how clever they are these harmful idiots and their Jordanians.

Just as Hizbollah has al-Manar, the harmful idiots have their propaganda sheet in Arabic. The harmful idiots, using the Jordanians, together own such an effective counter-insurgency tool.

The October 18, 2007, issue of al-Malaf.net features most prominently two articles:

In one, al-Malaf informs us that a Syrian unknown, whose hobby is to sit in the Israelis’ lap, and who heads a said political party, has launched a website. Hooray. Why? He says to encourage dialogue between the two countries (his home country Syria to which he is treasonous and his adored country, Israel, which occupies a part of his home country and which ass he likes to kiss for the US taxpayer’s money he gets.) No, not the entire two countries. The traitor/kiss ass payee of the harmful idiots has two (and only two) target audiences in his harmful idiot aristocratic and reactionary mind : the politicians and the “educated ones.” Damn the non-educated ones. Those bastard ones! These belong to al-Qaeda. They don’t deserve to kiss Israel’s ass.

The Sunnis of Syria can’t wait to follow this guy. This guy is a treasure.

Tellingly, what looks like The harmful idiots’ stooge has nothing to say about a Palestinian state, the Joulan, or reparations to the Palestinian refugees and to Lebanon. How could he? If he’s fully on the payroll of the harmful idiots--an employee/contractor--he could hardly seek out justice or common sense. Such would upset the pearl of the harmful idiots’ eye and their Jordanians.

Oh boy! What a devilish scheme these harmful idiots have cooked up! They deserve every taxpayer’s penny they get.

[Explanation:

This scheme by the harmful idiots and the Jordanians is meant to pressure the Syrian government. It's unclear what the ultimate goal is. The harmful idiots and their Jordanians likely think that they can force the Syrian government to break its alliance with Iran. There had been reports that the harmful idiots have in the recent past pressured their favored protectorate to cease and desist from striking a deal with the present Syrian government. All of this points to a policy by the harmful idiots to take over the foreign policy of all protectorates. The idea is to line up these protectorates in a united (as practically as possible) front to face off with Iran--and Syria. The Syrian "leader" the harmful idiots and their Jordanians have created is meant to appeal to the Sunni majority of Syria. The focus on the politicians and the "educated ones" isn't haphazard. It's part and parcel of a reactionary right wing mind--that of the harmful idiots and the Jordanians--which considers that the region can be made to return to a time in the past when the masses knew their place and the aristocracy (at present: harmful idiots' agents and Arab affirmative action stooges) can be paid off handsomly and pacified.

One problem with all of this is that the Sunni masses of Syria will not follow any stooge who doesn't call for the return of the Joulan and for the return home of the refugees or for reparations. The masses matter. The Syrian government should know how to unleash these, Sunni and others, against any "educated ones" who take it upon themselves to negotiate with Israel.

Another problem: once again, the harmful idiots and their Jordanians should miscalculate--as they did in Iraq (the harmful idiots, not the Jordanians) and as both did in Lebanon in the early 1970s. With miscalculation, there's always the possibility that they should get what they're wishing for. But with a twist. The twist: a "Sunni" takeover of the government in Syria, but not by the "educated ones" or the "politicians" (read: agents of the harmful idiots) but by...the al-Qaeda types.

A third problem: the policy launched by the harmful idiots assumes way too much--that U.S. interest in the Middle East will remain as intense as the outgoing Bush Administration wants it to be. Dream on. The mood in the country now is one where we're searching for a President who would "tend to one's garden"--a public policy maven, not someone who should engage in yet more reckless, harmful, and absolutley idiotic foreign adventures.


ANOTHER ARTICLE

Another article, equally prominent, tells us about the Beirut branch (no less–we’re to presume the presence of one thousand branches) of the Secretariat (Amanah) for the [Organization of the] Damascus Declaration. What is that? I need to check
al-Manar on this one. (Not really.) It tells us that one of its prominent leaders, another prominent unknown, by the name of Maamoun al-Homsi has addressed a “letter from the Secretariat to world Jewry-- [no less, but what address did he use, pray tell–I’d like to send a letter myself to scream about Wolfowitz, Perle, Thomas Friedman, and all the "educated ones"] –-[complaining] that the Israeli politicians are committing the biggest of the most dangerous [of all]mistakes against their own people and [no less!] the people of the region [to boot, damn!] by engaging in secret deals with ‘the corrupt, dictatorial, and family-centered [like the Bush--father-son-- or the Clinton--husband-wife] Syrian regime.’”

Hot damn! The harmful idiots and their Jordanians are right on target. If this isn’t cunning propaganda I don’t know what is.

Being both fiction and non-fiction minded, I’d like to tell the harmful idiots and their Jordanians two things. Call it my contribution:

1. Non-fiction: If the Israelis want to strike a deal with the Syrians, would the harmful idiots and their Jordanians please stay out of it? And, by all means, keep “world Jewry” out of it, too, lest a Thomas Friedman once again steps in to hooray the civilizing effect of the cold-blooded aggression against yet another Arab or Muslim country and the orphan-ing of that country's children.

2. Fiction: I don’t like the name: Maamoun al-Homsi. It doesn't ring authentic. Here are three alternatives: Saadan al-Halabi? Jerban al-Shami? Mintak al-Kirdi? Do contact me for more. Not.

Harmful idiots: do not stop this vicious and effective campaign. Syrian government officials (I’m so certain) are shitting in their pants.

Oh, I forgot: the same issue of the harmful idiots’ al-Malaf.net features an op. ed. piece by... Thomas Friedman, the civilizer of Arabs. Ain’t that special!

(NOTE: My apologies, not, to my sisters and brothers in Jordan who need to make a buck and have no choice but to humor the harmful idiots. I feel your pain. Not.)

THE (EVENTUAL AND INESCAPABLE) RISE OF IRAQI ARAB ISLAMIC NATIONALISM

Rough points–rough second draft

(Acronyms:

SGEST: Shia Government/establishment, joining together SCIRI, Dawa, and at times Mahdi.

HISG: Harmful Idiots’ Shadow Government. This refers to the Iraqi military forces and intelligence service (s) which respond solely to harmful idiots’ command.)


1. PLAYER ONE: THE HARMFUL IDIOTS–THE ELEMENTS AND ASPECTS OF THEIR “STRATEGY.”

These have conceded the Shia government/establishment (SCIRI/Dawa–SGEST) to Iran and Syria. They hope eventually to snatch this establishment away from Iran, to balance its power using the shadow government (HISG), or to subdue it using the same. But not now; the Maliki government is useful. It has engaged Syria and Iran successfully as a go-between on behalf of the harmful idiots.

As a result–in part--less U.S. troops are being blown up.

1.a. The shadow government. ( HISG–Harmful Idiots’ Shadow Government)

In the meanwhile the harmful idiots are fully engaged in building (I suspect) their shadow Iraqi government, separate and apart from SGEST. This government responds to the harmful idiots and not to SGEST. I’ll go on a limb and say that the harmful idiots’ shadow government likely is made up of a lot of Baathists who are connected to Jordanian intelligence.

1.b. Sunni militias–to assist the shadow government, a la Lebanon, circa 1975.

The shadow government will expect help from Sunni paramilitaries, such as the Islamic Army, the Doura Revolutionaries, the much touted Anbar tribes–the Sahwas. All of these are being armed by the harmful idiots under the guise (and it is a guise) of fighting off al Qaeda.

1.c. The harmful and idiotic plan.

Nothing is clear about where all of this is heading. I strongly suspect the harmful idiots are once again miscalculating. Nothing new. The harmful idiots can’t seem to get it right.

To illustrate: the harmful idiots and Jordanian intelligence through Lebanese army intelligence had armed and trained the Christian Right in Lebanon in the early 1970s. The militias of the Christian Right were meant to assist the Lebanese army as this army moved to suppress the Palestinian resistance movement, a la Jordan, circa 1969. The harmful idiots were acting on behalf of the Israelis to help them dodge the formation of a Palestinian state, and to teach Syria a lesson or two. The result: the harmful idiots miscalculated royally (about the unity and effectiveness -- or lack thereof--of the army) and Lebanon has been in shambles and misery ever since.



1.d. Achilles’ heel (s)

The harmful idiots can’t get it straight because they are unable to account for their own weaknesses:

(1) their idiotic and harmful adventures cost way too much, what with all the President and VP’s friends billing the tax base as if there’s no tomorrow. Payoffs at historic levels!. Unlike the first Gulf wars I doubt that the harmful idiots will be able to get the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs to cough up enough money to make the Iraq occupation’s cost, or even mere involvement, palatable to the tax base at home.

The harmful idiots likely are trying to place the entire shadow government and the Sunni paramilitaries on the payroll of the GCC countries. But all that does is fund the coming civil wars, and hardly re-builds a country. Too, these Iraqi Sunni – having had a taste of a modernistic albeit repressive state (where women could climb up the ladder of government and business!) -- are not stupid: they know that a united Iraq will mean a rich Iraq, and they will not need the pittance from the backward Gulf Arabs.

(2) Imperial blind spot. This newsletter covered this years ago. In essence, the reluctance to tax at home coupled with unusually low interest rates has generated for years (and continues to) a dollar glut overseas. That has enriched opponents of the harmful idiots–China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela. These (theoretically) as a consequence can fund whatever factions/groups are willing to fight American troops and the corrupt and reactionary proxies of the harmful idiots. A financial equilibrium in the balance of power is (and has been) in evidence for years thanks to the profuse “printing”–in effect-- of American currency.

Put differently, the harmful idiots, self-referential to the extreme, don’t understand their own country. They do know how to get their people elected firing up not-so-hidden racism and xenophobia which they consider mere "wedge issues."

Instead of taxing gasoline and filling the coffers of the federal govvernment, American right wing politicians have enriched America’s rivals. The chief harmful idiot and the forces he mobilized (the Jewish Right, The (NYTimes) Tom Friedmans, and the Christian Right) had launched a harmful adventure without accounting for the fact that rivals had money too. What’s ironic about the mediocre but harmful right wing is that it doesn’t want to tax gasoline, which ends up enriching rivals. Then it dispatches the children of others to devastate another country and orphan its children wholesale to test such self-referential mediocre and grandiose schemes -- New American Century and securing the realm for Israel. This right wing thinks it can print money. It can print. But that money, for now, is accepted by rivals as international currency. These people’s party, the Republican, has proven so irresponsible fiscally that its leaders have gone on a spree of spending profusely without taxing. This, I believe, has played a huge part in weakening US foreign policy.

(NOTE: The dollar glut weakens foreign policy in many ways, including the stated war on terror. To illustrate: I’ve always thought that one relatively inexpensive way government would obtain information on travelers to the United States would be to put on the payroll hundreds of police officers from all provinces in foreign countries. THese officers would answer the questions of US
consular services abiout whether an individual is known for links to groups which advocate mass murder. (I do realize that this system is open to abuse. But it can be tweaked, and be eliminated any time the need ceases.) When rivals -- and even friendly countries with incompetent security -- are rich, these officers would either no longer be “hungry” enough to do us the favor or would go on the payroll of the mass murder - prone group which now is rich thanks to the dollar glut.)

(3) Even after they begin withdrawal , the harmful idiots (both Republican and Democrat) want to leave troops and mercenaries behind.

Which means the war in Iraq will still involve US troops and remain expensive. (The mercenaries are as expensive as the troops.)

In contrast, rivals can fight the war using proxies who are much cheaper. And the rivals are not bankrupt, while the U.S. government is--and all know it. Surprise.
(Rivals don't create a resistance movement. Once this resistacne movement is formed, rivals can make it more effective by helping it out.)


1.e. Reverse the revolution.

Taking a lesson from home (where they imprison young rebels for something as silly as the possession of marijuana) and from their beloved Israelis (if they can’t kill the young Palestinian resistance activists, or turn them into informants, they put them in prison for the better part of their life), the harmful idiots have imprisoned a large swath of the younger generation of Arab Sunni -- over 20,000 of them. These had started a revolution, taking advantage of the war of resistance. The harmful idiots have locked them up and unleashed reactionary tribal forces. They did that to please their allies, the extremely reactionary princes and sheiks of the Gulf. But for how long?

(This policy reversal -- to distance the US from the Shia and ally to the Sunni reactionary forces in Iraq -- became evident after the Vice President visited the Gulf and met with its emirs, princes, and sheiks in early May of this year.)


1.d. Partition Iraq: the proposed consociational scheme.

The harmful idiots are building what they think will be a lasting sectarian/ethnic political structure. The harmful idiots want to be the protectors of the Sunni in Iraq as a way of becoming loved by the wider Sunni the world over.


1.e. Brilliant? The harmful idiots via Egypt pressure the pearl of their eye.

The harmful idiots seem to be using their Egyptians to place pressure on the Israelis. The idea is to get the apple of the harmful idiots’ eye to accept the Saudi peace initiative–to squeeze that colonialist entity back to pre-June 5, 1967 border.

The harmful idiots have for a while now being allowing the Egyptians to smuggle weapons to Hamas through tunnels. Huh? The Egyptian government of course would claim that it has nothing to do with this. Far be it for this newsletter to doubt an Arab source when this source is trying to do the right thing -- get a Palestinian state formed. But it's difficult to believe that the Egyptians can do it, not when they have left the ranks of the Arabs for so long and had become Uncle Toms. Israel will find a way to outsmart both the Egyptians and the harmful idiots. (See below re. the Turkish-Israeli raid on Syria.) Still, there's humor in it: that Egyptian troops cannot locate these tunnels. Or that Egypt would be doing this without the consent of -- even full coordination with -- the harmful idiots.

The apple of the harmful idiots’ eye feels helpless. It can’t unleash its lobby in the U.S. because this lobby is on the defensive having so systematically helped take us into an expensive and endless war and turned us into the most hated country in the Muslim world. Worse, this lobby is one of the major forces behind wanting us into yet another loser, expensive, and self-defeating war -- one with Iran. Even though this lobby has now placed its people nearly in each and every think - tank in the capital, the American tax base is in no mood to hear yet more chatter about war with Iran.

But that will last so long. The Israeli-centered and centric ones should unleash from the think-tanks as soon as the tax base forgets.

The Israelis should be expected do something to neutralize this Egyptian-harmful idiots’ scheme, late in coming. The harmful idiots would’ve stood a better chance in obtaining Israeli concessions had they not torpedoed the Saudis’ Mecca Accord. But, hey, the harmful idiots want total domination and leadership of all the reactionary forces in the world. Accordingly, these aren’t allowed any creativity. The recent Turkish-Israeli operation against Syria–the alleged bombing and landing against structures in northeastern Syria–may have been an Israeli (in coordination with with Turkish generals) attempt to torpedoe the joint Egyptian/harmful idiots scheme of keeping Hamas afloat and capable against the Israeli colonialists. It was a set up by the Israelis and their Turkish generals. They expected Iran to retaliate against US troops in Iraq since for Iran linkage is everything. Such would have forced the harmful idiots to return to the Israeli camp without hesitation. But Iran didn’t retaliate. Instead it dispatched a delegation to Turkey headed by an influential general and issued a warning to that state. (My guess: “We are together in the war to stifle the Kurdish terrorists, though we are aware that the problem is a much larger one for Turkey since such a significant part of its population is Kurdish and lives in a consolidated part of the country. We are fully with you in blunting the Kurds and we are confident you'll be with us when it comes to the integrity of Syria’s territory.” Get it?)

If this speculation is half correct, would it be possible that the White House has turned against the Israelis and is doing it tacitly through Egypt? If so, why would it have given the go-ahead to the Israelis and the Turks to bomb Syria? Or is it possible that elements within the harmful idiot foreign policy establishment (the CIA) are doing this independent of the White House, a la passive-aggressive, winking at the Egyptians while visibly playing helpless?

You can bet the farm that the many among the Jewish community who had lined up behind Bush/Cheney to conquer an Arab and Muslim country and orphan its children, visibly (right wing) or less visibly (the Tom Friedman liberals who want to civilize Arabs and Muslims for Israel ) will be hearing about this from the Israelis. Expect therefore this Jewish right wing and the Jewish liberals to go Democratic all the way in the upcoming elections.



PLAYER TWO: THE IRAQI ARAB SUNNI

The Iraqi Sunni don’t need al Qaeda any longer. For now. Until the harmful idiots lose control and the civil wars erupt. Then they’ll be kissing al Qaeda’s ass.

The Iraqi Arab Sunni fired up a civil war and used al Qaeda against the Shia to defeat the harmful idiots and break their alliance to Iran’s proxies. Who else would dispatch all these suicide bombers?

Now that the Arab Sunni have forced the harmful idiots to change their Jewish Right and Tom Friedman-inspired course, they no longer need the foreign fighters, including the Saudi. (See below.)

The problem for the Iraqi Arab Sunni is the following:

How can they use the troops of the harmful idiots (yes, Virginia: our troops) to get back on top and break Iran’s hold on their brethren, the Shia?

They can’t. Hence their eventual dilemma. To connect to the Gulf Arabs and be on their payroll, to work with the harmful idiots -- all of this will not achieve their goals. These Iraqi Sunni once were proud and modernistic people and only the few among them should accept to be beggars to the backward princes in the Gulf. What are they to do?

Not even an American war on Iran will produce their wished-for result.

One thing would: A new Iraqi Arab nationalism, with an Islamic twist, directed at uniting the country and forcing the Kurds into joining in or running to the mountains.

Iran and Syria may have no choice but to chime in on that nationalism. Why?

Because the harmful idiots want to stay in Iraq. They will use sectarian/ethnic divisions to achieve that end. Nothing new: Divide-to-conquer is an old and proven colonialist strategy. For as long as the Sunni and Shia are divided, the harmful idiots should be able to stay.

Moreover, the harmful idiots aim to use the shadow government to be able to stay and allegedly defend the Arab Sunni. They can keep the Arab Sunni on edge about their Shia brethren (“counter insurgency”) by having their Jordanian-paid proxies or Jordanian-paid Iraqis blow up an Askariyya here and there. Then neither Moqtadha nor anyone else would be able to stop the Shia hoodlums from massacring Arab Sunni.

But the harmful idiot plan will never re-unite Iraq nor bring the Arab Sunni back to power. Not to mention that it will not allow the Shia to take over either. Result: the Sunni and Shia will need to find a formula to re-unite.

The formula: Arab(for the Sunni and the Arab Street) Islamic (for the Shia, Iran, the Kurds, and the Arab Street) Iraqi nationalism.


Iran and Syria will have no choice but to support this new brand of nationalism if they want the US out of Iraq, in full.


PLAYER THREE: THE ARAB SHIA

However much the harmful idiots try to widen the rift between SCIRI and Mahdi–and divide the Shia camp–in the end I doubt that these efforts will succeed. The Shia camp is already and has been in a controlled state of division and chaos. But that camp is more likely to divide super violently not thanks to the harmful idiots’ counter insurgency schemes, but thanks to the eventual rise of the Islamic Arab nationalism. Then you can expect wild assassinations and the dragging of people, live and corpses, onto the streets of the lands once occupied by the US.

Why not divide now? SCIRI knows the harmful idiots will not be a permanent fixture in Iraq. That country is bankrupting them and placing immense pressures on U.S. military commitment in other parts of the world. Not to mention that even they, the reactionaries they are, should know that the dynamics of Iraqi politics will be anti-colonialist, direct or indirect.

Iran in contrast is there to stay.

Most pressing for SCIRI is that the U.S. will never deliver the shadow government it has evolved to the SCIRI/Dawa government-SGEST. (It really is not a pressing matter for the leadership. These are on the payroll of the harmful idiots. But politics is such that this leadership will become insignificant should it stand in the way of Arab Islamic nationalism and the cry to get the colonialists out of the country.)

That Mahdi is conducting less operations against U.S. troops has more to do with offering the harmful idiots a face-saving way to start withdrawing the troops. But once Mahdi comes to a full realization that:

–the harmful idiots will not deliver the shadow government to SGEST; and

–the harmful idiots will try all tricks to keep the Sunni-Shia rift as wide as possible; and

–the harmful idiots will unleash Israel against Mahdi’s ally–Syria

. . . then all bets would be off.

Mahdi and the Shia will need to find a formula for re-joining with their Arab Sunni brethren, not in a consociational scheme (pushed by the harmful idiots). Mahdi, wanting so much to be Hizbollah-like, will not be satisfied with the death of Arab nationalism. It’ll revive an Islamic version of it to revive an Iraq with a mission. That would deliver the Arab World to it doorstep and that of Arab Islamic Iraq. Such -- the pan Arab motivation -- has always been an incentive to local Arab leaders and groups.

Iran will have no choice but to support the new brand of nationalism since only this would assure the departure of the harmful idiots.

And:

importantly, only an Iraqi Islamic Arab nationalism, which includes the Shia, would face-off with the successful Sunni nationalism in Turkey (Development and Justice Party.)



PLAYER FOUR: IRAN

Iran can arm elements within Mahdi to keep the cost of occupation high for the harmful idiots. These dispatch the troops nearly daily to arrest this or that alleged operative of the Quds Brigade. (We all know that the harmful idiots are trying to ignite the wrath of the American public against Iran–but the American public is shouting “Damn it: my pocketbook!” Not another expensive war and engagement in the Middle East to make the few rich and all of us poor.)

But arming individuals within Mahdi isn’t likely to get the troops out, especially that the harmful idiots plan to keep a large contingent of these and mercenaries on the ground to protect and facilitate the work of the shadow state (chuck full of Baathists) they created.


Iran therefore is facing a dead end. It can either accept U.S. presence in Iraq -- and the eventual war by U.S. troops or, more likely, by the shadow government, against Iran, a war of secret operations and an ideological war of Sunni nationalism against Shia -- or it can support a brand of Iraqi Islamic nationalism -- Arab -- which is not antagonistic to Iran as a way of forcing the harmful idiots out of Iraq and dismantling the shadow government.

In other words, if Iran wants to get the harmful idiots out of Iraq, it cannot rely on a limited Shia resistance: blowing up troops now and then or downing a helicopter. The harmful idiots will withdraw troops , Iran and all know that. The problem for Iran will be the shadow government and the US troops and mercenaries who will stay behind to back that shadow government. The only way Iran can force the US troops out in full is to see within Iraq a brand of nationalism which will be uniting of Shia and Sunni. Only if a grassroots anti -- colonial Shia-Sunni resistance emerges will the harmful idiots order full withdrawal and will the shadow government crumble.

Do you see the bind for the Islamic Republic? Iraq under the occupation of the harmful idiots, or under their influence, is an eventual launchpad for operations against it and a fueling engine of Sunni Arab nationalism also meant against it. Iran will have to chose. Barring a deal with the harmful idiots, in good faith, Iran’s choice I believe will be to accept -- even encourage -- Iraqi Islamic nationalism, directed at regaining the unity of the country and re-acquiring the Kurdish north.

This nationalism can build on support of the Palestinians and Syria against Israeli colonialism. Not a costly affair for the budding nationalism, yet powerful enough to buttress ranks. Regaining the north is yet another pillar. Kicking the harmful idiots out -- supporters of Kurdish separatism, of Israeli colonialists, and of a weak Iraq -- yet another. Settling grievances with Kuwait about oil is another. (Don’t under-estimate the revanchist spirit.) And healthy trade relations with Iran, yet another.

A NEW ARAB ISLAMIC NATIONALISM: ILLUSTRATIVE DYNAMICS

To illustrate, here’s how the dynamics might play out. (There would be a rich variation of possible dynamics; I’m only offering one.) Mahdi spins off a group which declares full war on the Kurdish Peshmerga, calling for a united and strong Iraq. The group conducts operations both against the Peshmerga and against U.S. troops. It calls for equal citizenship for all as Muslim Arabs. (The Christians can forget it and head to the US.) Young Sunni will join in, both as voices and as actual fighters. Iran and Syria will send in some money. More Shia and Sunni young are recruited. The harmful idiots dispatch shadow government troops to kill these. Massacres and more prison camps. A new council of ulamas (NCU) emerges, which includes both Sunni and Shia sheiks, younger ones. This new council launches an endless stream of fatwas and press releases against the occupation and its shadow government and condemns the eternal weakness of the SCIRI/Dawa government. The young nationalists assassinate collaborators -- Sunni, Shia, and Kurds.

Israel attacks Syria. The NCU-associated group dispatches fighters to south Lebanon. Some die and provide instant symbols of martyrdom for Islamic Arab Iraq, affirming the expediency of helping Syria and the Palestinians against the Israeli colonialists. Members of the shadow government’s military pass intelligence on to the NCU-associated group. The fact that the older Sunni have failed to re-unite Iraq as a strong and modernistic power, and the equal failure of the Shia SCIRI/Dawa state, fuels the popularity of the NCU-associated group. Moqtadha’s son or nephews join the NCU-associated group, boosting its legitimacy.

Iran and Syria try to keep a close watch on the NCU group. They provide money for its various campaigns–to regain the north, to seek reparations from Kuwait and the United States, to end the occupation in full, as direct and indirect presence. Iran would be weary of losing its influence over this group to Gulf governments as these might take on its financing to change its anti-colonial agenda. (The chief beneficiary of US troops in Iraq are these governments.) But if the NCU group loses its anti-colonial mission, it’ll be outmaneuvered by spin-offs to its left. Should the harmful idiots normalize relations with Iran, the NCU group could face trouble. But then the harmful idiots are unlikely to normalize relations with the Islamic Republic. Either way, and especially if the harmful idiots normalize with the Islamic Republic, expect coup d’etats within the armed forces of the SCIRI/Dawa state and within the armed forces of the shadow state, both motivated by the anti-colonial call of the NDU group (s) and the need to regain the north.



PLAYER FIVE: SYRIA

Syria will be ready for the next war with Israel, likely a war against cities and civilians. Syria should lose a lot of people, but that loss should boost the legitimacy of its government.


In the meanwhile, Lebanon will continue to be the soft spot, from where Syria can exercise leverage against the harmful idiots (should these still be interested, a big if) and the Saudis.

Syria, if pressure continues, should start leaning Islamic, though it’ll tamper this with an intensive ideological effort for acceptance of minorities. It might work. Syria’s support fo the anti-colonial NCU group(s) should provide its government ample legitimacy

PLAYER SIX: SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia fell under extreme pressure (and likely outright threats) from the harmful idiots to cease and desist from forging along an independent foreign policy. Saudi Arabia’s ruling royal team complied.

Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal’s proposition that his country stands equidistant from all parties to the conflict in Iraq is highly suspect. Saudi Arabia has been in Iraq in various forms. First, it allowed its young to fight on the side of the Sunni resistance. (I don’t believe for a minute that Prince Nayef at Interior, at a time of tons of money flowing into the Kingdom, couldn’t have stemmed the flow, even if one accounts for the popularity of the cause.) Then, later, Saudi Arabia provided financing (and likely still does) to various groups. It likely even paid off Moqtadha! (See earlier posts.)

Shifting policy wasn’t difficult for the Saudis. The Iraqi Sunni resistance, by blowing up Shia, and these by retaliating in kind (usually through death squads,) had failed the occupation by the harmful idiots and the Pentagon/Jewish Right Iraq Project. These could no longer proceed to break up the Kingdom--the Defense Policy Board ‘s stick against the Kingdom. The harmful idiots’ creation of the likely Jordan-leaning Baath -dominated shadow government also helped the Saudi governing royal team accept the leadership of the harmful idiots.

You could see Saudi al-Faisal accept (really, hooray) the American occupation of Iraq. He did it recently on Charlie Rose under the moral pretext that the US, imperial he said shyly, should fix what it had destroyed.

What Saud al-Faisal didn’t say is that Saudi Arabia (likely under threats against the personalities of the royal team by the harmful idiots, and unable to change the team at the top), is trusting the harmful idiots, yet again. Maybe the Saudi royal team knows that the plan of the harmful idiots for Iraq is a non-starter. But it feels helpless since the royal team is intimidated by the harmful idiots. Maybe it doesn’t. I don’t know. What I’m confident about is that the royal team runs scared whenever the harmful idiots or the British threaten.