THAW III: THE TARWIDH (TAMING/CONDITIONING) OF THE HARMFUL IDIOTS.

second rough draft


Tame: vb 1 a: to reduce from a wild to a domestic state 2: to deprive of spirit: HUMBLE, SUBDUE 3. To tone down: SOFTEN

Condition: vb 5 a. to adapt, modify, or mold so as to conform to an environing culture b: to modify so that an act or response previously associated with one stimulus becomes associated with another.

(Source: Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary -- 1975.)


CORRECTION

The reporting in As-Safir to which I referred was based on information from Tehran given to the Lebanese newspaper’s reporter by some close to “the center of decision-making” -- not by senior officials.


TARWIDH: BACKGROUND

Tarwidh, an Arabic word, means a mix of taming and conditioning of wild animals. ( I don’t have handy an Arabic-English dictionary, but I’m confident about my definition.) I’ve seen the word used in politics. In this instance, I use it to refer to an element in the mix that makes up the thaw in the relations between the Iranians and the harmful idiots.

The choreography of the thaw, about which I wrote in the last post, isn’t necessarily the product of a well-defined understanding between the two parties. But some understanding must’ve been reached, outlining some moves and counter-moves to avoid disaster -- for the harmful idiots: a wholesale armed rebellion by the Shia and some Sunni in Iraq; for the Iranians: the bombing of nuclear sites. (Not to mention other scenarios: e.g., more turmoil in Bahrain, turmoil in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, a war between Hizbollah and Israel, and so on.) Complementing that modicum level of understanding, the result of which in part is the thaw, is an Iranian policy of tarwidh vis-a-vis the harmful idiots, itself a necessary ingredient of the thaw.

Since the thaw doesn’t amount to anything like a peace treaty the two parties still define their interests based on a complex mix of elements. In the case of the harmful idiots, for instance, they’d have to consider so many fronts:

-- The home scene, especially the profligate cost of the war. (An interpreter in Iraq, a U.S. citizen, makes around $189,000 per year, no degrees or background in interpreting required. Add to this the commission the recruiting agency makes. Multiply that by the over one hundred thousand contractors and the commissions of the recruiting companies -- all out to make a fortune while the party lasts.)

-- The pressure by the Bush Administration on its own, the harmful idiots, to show success in Iraq, forcing a short-term view, and entrapping the troops in a truly untenable situation, long-term. Here, U.S. foreign policy, so tied to the need to show success during the balance of the Bush term, becomes beholden to Russia and its regional allies -- Iran and Syria -- and to others: Israel (the need to persuade them, without alienating the American Jewish comunity, to stop expanding settlements) and Turkey (the need to persuade them not to invade and face-off with the harmful idiots' paid proxies -- Talabani and Barazani -- while securing their cooperation in Iraq and the region.) Which explains two of the three Christmas phone calls our President made: one to Mr. Putin and and one to Mr. Erdogan -- both key to the “success” of the Iraq Project of the Christian Right and the Jewish Right. Put differently, we’re now into a begging mode to maintain an untenable colonial occupation, until the balance of Mr. Bush’s term is over.

-- Their Arab dependencies which are increasingly suspecting that the harmful idiots are striking deals with the Iranians behind their back.

-- The apple of their eye which is going bonkers over the fact that the harmful idiots will not go to war with Iran -- and may bomb Iran to force US troops into a war with the Iranians.

-- The progress or lack thereof on the Israeli-Palestinian front to defuse a political weapon in the hands of the Iranians. This weapon allows the Iranians to mobilize the Arab public -- including the middle classes which populate government agencies and oversee intelligence on terrorism -- against the harmful idiots and their planned colonial tenure in Plantation Iraq. The Israelis now likely will do what they can, including expanding colonial settlements, to torpedo Mr. Bush’s efforts in the Middle East since they can no longer count on him to wage war against Iran.

-- The political peace in such places as Bahrain, majority Shia, but whose Sunni Crown Prince followed his orders from the harmful idiots weeks ago and made a statement critical of Iran’s nuclear project. Result: public protests calling for political reform at home by the disfavored majority -- the Crown Prince's Shia subjects -- and near-wolesale arrests of Shia political activists.

-- Plantation Lebanon.

-- And so on.


TARWIDH: MORE RECENTLY

Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s Foreign Minister, shed light on the nature of Iran’s tactic of tarwidh of the harmful idiots. On or about December 23, 2007, he said that Iran was prepared to re-start negotiations with the United States but it “expects first a higher degree of respect.” (My translation from Arabic.) He added:

“We welcome any pattern [of negotiations] based on logic and respect, and we believe that this can be achieved by putting an end to [the issuance of] allegations that are baseless against Iran and through the possibility of building the grounds incrementally for further [mutual] understanding.” (My translation from Arabic.)

He rejected any pre-conditions for negotiations including the freezing of enrichment of uranium.

This statement, together with the earlier ultimatum communicated through the Tehran reporter of As-Safir (see prior two posts) equals. . .tarwidh!

THAW II: THE HARMFUL IDIOTS TO DODGE THE STICK

2nd corrected and acceptable draft

BACKGROUND

In the December 9 post this newsletter revealed that according to the Iranians the harmful idiots have been negotiating with them. (See, “Thaw: Iran and the Harmful Idiots Have Been Negotiating,” December 09, 2007.)

In that post, this newsletter referred to reporting by Ali al-Haj Yousef from Tehran for the Lebanese as-Safir (12/10/07–Arab Shia, Arab nationalist.) Senior officials in Tehran had revealed to Mr. Yousef that Iranian representatives had been meeting with harmful idiots in various countries, starting in Algeria.

THE STICK

Iranian sources told Mr. Yousef on or about 12/10/07 that “the quiet or near-quiet in Iraq should be in evidence until the end of this year, the grace period which the Iranians have specified [for them to witness] progress in other areas/paths [other than Iraq] especially the nuclear file.” (My translation.)

This Iranian ultimatum came after the NIE estimate had cleared the Iranian government of any active effort to develop a nuclear weapon. In other words, the Iranians are expecting something more from the harmful idiots – more concessions – on the nuclear file.

THE CARROT

The Let’s-orphan-Arab-children-war-mongering The Washington Post (Christian/Jewish Right -- despising of the Arab poor, the Palestinian poor in particular, especially when these have a political mind of their own and aren't adoring of Israel) reports today (12/23/07) that a harmful idiot by the name of David Satterfield, a senior adviser to a higher-level harmdul idiot, the national security genius, Ms. Rice, had credited Iran with lowering the level of attacks in Iraq. (The Pentagon, of course, wants us to believe it’s the Pentagon that did it -- though the Pentagon seems to be part of the same choreography -- see below -- when it announces future reductions of forces in Iraq. Likely these announcements are part of the agreed-upon choreography with the Iranians.)

Satterfield’s statements smack of a choreographed exchange between on the one hand the harmful idiots and, on the other, Iran and Syria.

Only recently, the Syrian Foreign Minister, after meeting with his Iraqi counterpart, said: “We are ready to build friendly and trusting relations with the United States.” (My translation.)

Then Rice said that the harmful idiots have a place in their heart for Iran when this one quits enrichment of uranium.

And not long before the svelte Mr. Mouallem made the above statement, Ali Larijani, representative of the Guide to the Revolution before the Iranian Higher Council for National Security, said : “It is possible to define common interests with America if it changes its policies and directions in the region.” (My translation from Arabic.)

Choreographed? Yes -- by clear and convincing evidence. The thaw is ongoing, though not very rapidly. Still: not bad. Mao Zedong used to say that there were times when one ought to stand on the war foot and others on the diplomacy foot. Long live diplomacy. The harmful idiots, after wiping out an Arab country, visiting unspeakable misery and pain onto its chilren and its people (see below), and squandering -- in the end--a couple trillion dollars, have become. . . realists.

At f----ing last.

************

(I'm reading Polly Evans, Fried Eggs With Chopsticks. She refers often to the account about the Chairman by his physician. It looks like the Chairman was a power-hungry sick puppy, a first degree megalomaniac. The book is informative and quite entertaining.)


IRAQ'S CHILDREN

FROM Joshua Partlow, "Leading Shiite Wants Iraq to Restrain Armed Councils," The Washington Post, Saturday December 22, 2007 at A11:

"Meanwhile UNICEF issued a report Friday putting forth a grim outlook for Iraq's children. The organization estimated that 2 million Iraqi children continue to face threats from poor nutrition, disease and a lack of education. The group found that 25,000 children a month were being driven from their homes by 'violence and intimidation' and that about 75,000 children are living in camps or temporary shelters.

"Nearly 1 million children have had their primary school education interrupted, hundreds of children have been killed or injured, and about 1,350 have been detained by the military and the police."

SAUDI ARABIA V. SYRIA: LET'S SPONSOR EACH OTHER'S OPPOSITION. OR LET'S QUIET DOWN, IN TANDEM.

UPDATED! s e c o n d and some rough draft. Serious.

The Syrian government is adopting a lesson from the British play book on dealing with Saudi Arabia: Try out blackmail; it worked for the British.

THIS NEWSLETTER WAS FIRST TO QUESTION THEIR MANHOOD.

Try to recall a post a long time ago which I co-authored, “Of British Blackmail and Saudi Manhood,” before Bashar Asad had called Saudi and other Arab leaders “half-men.” In that post, my co-author and I outlined the ingenious blackmail by Tony Blair and his British government against the Saudi. That blackmail has netted (and continues to) the UK vast arms contracts, seemingly unending, and eminently useless to Saudi Arabia. "Protection" money. And it wouldn't surprise me the least that, after this humiliating blackmail, the Saudi government should still be more than glad to kiss Tony Blair’s ass and wash his balls. (It may have done it already; I need to look at my notes. Didn't King Abdallah visit the blackmailers in their own country?)

The Saudi government, so helpless after the defeat of the harmful idiots in the Gulf, probably feels it has no other choice. It knows that Blair and George W. Bush have created uncounted numbers of Arab orphans, a few million refugees, and put an end to a country which once was Arab. But it'll care for Blair and Bush as a slave would a master, having internalized inferiority.

One important element of successful blackmail against Saudi Arabia is the hosting in your country of Saudi opposition figures. They don’t have to be important figures. Anyone with a Saudi citizenship should do. That opposition should be allowed a relative free range in broadcasting and other political activities. And, hey, by the way, you’d need to give it some money, but not directly. Re-route it multiple times.

Syria seems to be pursuing a similar course, with a twist -- a Shia twist. This started a while ago. (See the June 6, 2007 post, “Saudi Arabia to Syria: Screw You Shia Alawites.”) But the immediate re-start went as follows:


A SYRIAN (and, do lower your voice: IRANIAN) SATELLITE TELEVISION DIRECTED AT THE SAUDI EASTERN PROVINCE--AND AT THE U.A.E.


Mr. Farouq al-Sharaa, Syria’s Vice President, recently told a conference of political parties in Damascus that Syria, Iran, and Turkey stand for a united Iraq. He added, as an afterthought, that Saudi Arabia does too. Um, why, pray tell. Because, he said, a divided Iraq could jumpstart a bad omen, a domino effect so to speak, where the royal family in Saudi Arabia will see its country partitioned and would lose the income of most of the country’s oil, so concentrated in al-Ahsa' (the Eastern Province) where....um, let me guess...a majority Shia population lives.


He did say the "royal family" -- not "the Saudis" or "the Saudi government" -- as losing the oil income. This was a no no for the Saudi government. Besides, how dare he at a time when we had worked so hard to have Mr. Bush issue an invite to Syria to attend the Annapolis let’s-coalesce-against-Iran-and-not-ask-dear-Israel-to-shed-its-settlements-and-withdraw-to-pre-1967-borders-conference, and even had the harmful idiots include the Joulan Heights on the agenda?

Mr. Al-Sharaa’s statement was not an accident; it was studied. I’d go further: his statement likely was part of a shrewd Iranian-Syrian strategy --

-- to force Saudi Arabia to lift the Saudi-engineered Arab isolation of Syria-- fully;

-- to cease and desist from its efforts to erect an Arab Sunni front against the Arab Shia and Iran -- to in effect ignite sectarian tension; (you do see attacks on any party allied to Iran or to its proxies all over the pages of the Saudi-paid press);

-- to accept the fact that Syria has strategic interests in Lebanon, until the Joulan is truly and fully regained and a Palestinian state is formed;

-- to cease and desist from using its huge surpluses to eat away at Syria’s influence among the former Baath and Arab Sunni of Iraq, a policy coordinated among the Kingdom, Jordan, and the harmful idiots;

-- to coordinate with Iran and Syria about Plantation Iraq and Plantation Lebanon, not with the harmful idiots -- both plantations having become so in good part thanks to the harmful idiots' ingenious "calculations," the "protectors" of the Saudis, the Islraelis, and the Arab Gulf countries miscalculating. ( Oops, we just destroyed yet another Arab country, destabilized it and the region, fueled terrorism -- all to avoid asking the apple of our eye to withdraw to pre-1967 borders and create a Palestinian state. Oops, sorry Arab orphans.)

-- to cease and desist from supporting Syrian opposition abroad in tandem with the harmful idiots (e.g. , the little man who oversaw in good part the destruction of Lebanon, now living in a palace (!) in Paris, the so-called Damascus Declaration payees of the Saudis and the harmful idiots);

-- and what have you.

In short: to align Saudi regional policy (not the one on television, where hands are held, but the one run by Saudi intelligence) more closely with Iran's and Syria's and less with the harmful idiots. Or, to act as a genuine bridge between the harmful idiots and Iran and Syria, to have the harmful idiots be more accepting of the two countries.

You’re saying that Saudi King Abdallah recently has extended an invitation to Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad for pilgrimage to Mecca; that he had held hands with him like a grandfather would with his grandson. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That’s television. On a scale of one to ten, how naive are you?

Where’s the Syrian blackmail, learned from the ones who cannot protect anyone, but who are eminently good at destroying defenseless countries and robbing the parents away from Arab children? So that their Prime Minister could prove his manhood strutting in a white shirt among his useless troops (a la Bush landing on an aircraft carrier) having defeated a defenseless Arab country and inflicted immense pain to helpless Arab civilians -- Blair and his government?

It’s in the rumor now circulating that Syria will be using a former Iraqi opposition figure to start a satellite television. So what? Well, Farouq al-Sharaa talked about the royal family losing control over al-Ahsaa where most of the Saudi oil is found and where a majority Shia population lives. Right? Get it? That satellite television should be quite a nuisance to the Saudi government if it features Saudi Shia opposition activists.


(Wonder who will be paying for this one? Let me think for a moment.....um....Could it be...Iran?)

What a drag. The Saudi government is free from harassment by al-Jazirah (Qatar --al-Jazirah's funder -- and Saudi Arabia have made up) only to face harassment by Syria.

(NOTE/UPDATE:

The Financial Times recently reported that the U.A.E., especially the Sheikdom of Dubai, has been tightening regulations pertaining to the residency of the sizeable Iranian community in that country. That it hasn't been renewing visas for the Iranians. The Shia satellite station should therefore be used against the UAE in addition to Saudi Arabia since the UAE, too, has a sizeable Shia population.)


Well, we can dish it out, too, said the Saudis. They ordered their dailies to unleash terrific attacks on al-Sharaa and Syria -- nearly all of their dailies.

Which they did. But one such daily was more subtle. On December 17, Fayez Sara (who? What?) wrote up a meaningless article about the Damascus Declaration (Syrian opposition, likely funded by the harmful idiots’ intelligence services and the Saudi) having gotten its house in order by electing officers. Al-Hayat published it. What choice does it have? It’s Saudi-royal-owned. Here, you damn Alawites. You call yourselves Arab nationalists! Consider this a shot across the bow.

(At least one more intelligence-planted article appeared in Al-Hayat on or about December 22; al-Malaf, the harmful idiots/Jordanian intelligence sheet -- well, don't even ask!)

THE FUTURE

Mind you: I had a while ago thought the harmful idiots would be the ones hosting Saudi Shia opposition figures and nursing them.

Discuss among yourselves: Can the Saudis and other Sunni Gulf Arab governments withstand the financing of Shia opposition within their countries?

More urgently, can they withstand a Shia-Sunni Iraqi Arab nationalism, helped along by Syria and Iran -- with a sophisticated propaganda machine, and allies in Lebanon and Palestine?

Time to wrap up a deal. I already see its outlines -- and it's not what you think.

THAW: IRAN AND THE HARMFUL IDIOTS HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATING.

first rough draft

Publicly the harmful idiots continue to dispatch threats, warnings, and ultimata. But events on the ground speak differently. They point to a thawing of relations between the United States and Iran. For one, the harmful idiots' ambassador-in-chief, King Abdallah of Jordan, has just met with the Syrian Foreign Minister and plans seem to be afoot for the re-inclusion of Syria among the Arabs.

But more is happening. Here's Ali al-Haj Yousef in as-Safir of 10/12/07, (online) reporting from Tehran:

" The sources which are close to the centers of decision in Iran ease up somewhat on secrecy. [They] talk about continued negotiations between the two parties, the American and the Iranian, other than the rounds [of negotations] about Iraq. [These sources] point to Algeria as a place where these contacts [between the harmful idiots and the Iranians] had begun. [These sources] add that the meetings [between Iranian and US representatives] are still taking place in many places, sometimes in a direct fashion and other times in an indirect fashion, through mediators. [These sources] speak about [upcoming] direct and open negotiations [between the harmful idiots and the Iranians] [to take place] after the holidays. [These sources] conclude: be repared for surprises."


Earlier in the same article, however, the Iranians seem to issue an ultimatum:

"[...] Iranian sources reveal that the quiet or near-quiet in Iraq should be in evidence until the end of this year, the grace period which the Iranians have specified [for them to witness] progress in other areas/paths, especially the nuclear file."

(My translation from Arabic.)

The ultimatum outlined above is followed by a paragraph which seems to lessen its severity--but remains somewhat unclear. It seems to define better relations between Iran and the American protectorates of the Gulf (the GCC countries) as one area where progress would result in continued quiet in Iraq. The sources told the as-Safir reporter that "something very important" had taken place between Iran and the GCC countries and that this "very important thing" should become pubic in the coming few days.

PLANTATION IRAQ UNDER THE JOINT LORDSHIP OF THE HARMFUL IDIOTS AND THE IRANIANS: ONE ARAB SUNNI NATIONALIST VIEW.

rough second draft

IRAN NURSES A SHIA-FIRST POLICY IN IRAQ

The Arab Sunnis don’t buy into my theory of the ruse: that Iran through Moqtadha as-Sadr is encouraging the formation of an Arab Sunni-Shia anti colonial front in Iraq. (See the last post.) Haroun Muhammad, writing for al-Quds al-Arabi (“Abdel al-Aziz Tabatabaii [Hakim] in Washington. . .[on a] Dual Mission,” 12/6/07), pokes holes (superficially perhaps) into my theory of the Iranian ruse.

In a nutshell Mr. Muhammad says that Abdel-Aziz Hakim (Tabatabaii–I suspect Mr. Muhammad is using Hakim's Persian name) has been mediating between Washington and Tehran, and that the two -- Washington and Tehran -- are in fact cooperating in Plantation Iraq.

If that’s true (and there is truth to it) then the Sadrist backlash against Iran (refer to this blog’s last post) was genuine. Sadr as an Iraqi nationalist should be rightfully concerned that Hakim, backed by both Iran and the harmful idiots, is working out the plan for Plantation Iraq to remain a plantation.

That may explain the recent accusations by an al-Qaeda spokesman that the Sadr people had been meeting with various Arab Sunni resistance groups (the Islamic Army, chiefly) in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia is the likely chief financial sponsor of the Islamic Army), in Jordan, and currently in Cairo. In other words, Sadr is seeking an alliance with these Arab Sunni forces to thwart the evolving US-Iranian plan for Plantation Iraq.

I'm aware that the choice of the meeting places is also an indication that the harmful idiots are in on it -- that they, too, are encouraging the formation of the patriotic Sunni-Shia front; though theirs is exclusively anti-Iranian. But, for Sadr, I think the front in the end is anti colonialist, period.

Sadr orders his men to freeze operations against US troops not so much to sit in the lap of the harmful idiots, albeit they think he does. He does it to force the issue: If Iran wants to kick out the American colonialists then it should cease it unwavering support of the agents of those colonialists -- the Supreme Council and Dawa -- and weaken as a result Mahdi and Fadhila. Why should he fight the war for Iran? If Iran can live with the colonialists next door and flirt with them through Hakim/Maliki, then be it; so can he. The Iranians in the end should pay the price, not his men. He can put his men on the payroll of the Saudis, be Arab and send anti-Iranian messages (as does Jumblatt in Lebanon) and wait out the American-Iranian colonial valse.

Interestingly, Sadr's choice of meeting places confirms an earlier observation of this blog -- much much earlier -- that Saudi Arabia had dispatched money to him. That money put an abrupt end to his campaign calling for the revival and upkeep of tombs in Saudi Arabia of Shia Imams, these tombs having been destroyed decades ago. That campaign would've incited the Saudi Shia who live mostly in the Eastern Province where most of the Saudi oil is found.

LORD IRAN'S (ACTUAL) STRATEGY IN PLANTATION IRAQ

What's one to believe: Lord Iran as supporter of a Mahdi-Sunni coalition to rid the country of the American colonialists -- super-bases, fortress embassy -- or Iran as Lord of Plantation Iraq in partnership with the American Lords?

The answer lies somewhere in-between. Things are too complex (I hate this word) to lend themselves to a one-time explanation. As illustration of this complexity note for example that if Iran weakens Sadr, it would lose Syria's support and a front nearer Israel. But then Syria would have no one to pay for its weapons from Russia; and so on. (Hence the never-ending, terrific, and intense coordination-by-shuttle between Syria and Iran -- dizzying.)

Lord Iran therefore will go either way and both ways, and will keep all of its options open in Plantation Iraq. Lord Iran will use that plantation to condition the harmful idiots (Hakim as bridge to the harmful idiots and Sadr -- or elements tied to him -- as stick against the same); Lord Iran will use Plantation Iraq to remain needed by the Gulf countries to dissuade them from cooperating fully with the siege laid against it by the harmful idiots; and Lord Iran will use the plantation to remain close to Syria and the Arab Street.

*****

The harm we have done to that sad (once) Arab country.

PLANTATION IRAQ II: THE IRANIANS ARE (WAY) AHEAD OF ME.

2nd nut so rugh draght

1. THE BOMB IS NOT.


In the last post, I made hay analytically of the fact that the Bomb would not change the balance of power in favor of the Islamic Republic; that the balance of power would remain the same; and that nuclear weapons, if anything, are an albatross. That the forte of the Islamic Republic were unconventional warfare and the influence that Republic exerts over the Muslim Street, the Arab in particular.

The recent finding drawn from a consensus National Intelligence Estimate, that Iran had halted in 2003 its bid to acquire nuclear weapons, places the Islamic Republic analysts four years ahead of me. They must’ve drawn conclusions similar to my recent ones -- but years earlier!

2. ONE RUSE

In addition, the Islamic Republic is ahead of me in my analysis of Iranian policy in Iraq. In the last post, too, I made hay of the fact that Iran could no longer rely solely on the Palestine cause to keep the Arab public mobilized; that present-day Plantation Iraq, dismantled as an Arab country by the harmful idiots and their American Jewish Right, has become yet another cause celebre for the Arab Street. I recall that my analysis had assessed that Iran was making a mistake when it supported the Dawa-Supreme Council (SC) axis and had diminished its support of Sadr and his Mahdi Army. For two reasons -- and I’m being somewhat superficial:

(1) the Dawa-Supreme Council (SC) axis is leaping towards total and full alliance with the harmful idiots. Note the recent verbal memorandum of understanding between President Bush and Prime Minister Maliki to assure U.S. colonialist presence in Iraq for the foreseeable future. And,

(2) Iraqi Arab Islamic nationalism is bound to re-emerge -- or, more correctly, emerge -- as an Arab Iraqi Sunni-Shia consensus force, and that Iran better be on the Arab public’s side of history, not the harmful idiots’, as it is at times when it nurses hopes that these would cease and desist from trying to “win” against the Islamic Republic.

Here again the Islamic Republic's analysts proved ahead of me. How?

In the last post I noted the anti-Iranian statements of the Sadrist Deputy Governor of Karbala. Not only were Jawad Hasnawi’s statements anti-Iranian; they too packed serious and likely true accusations against the once-double agents -- the Supreme Council and Dawa: that these had dispatched from Karbala death squads to murder “our brothers, the Sunni.” More recently, Mr. Hasnawi even accused these two parties of seeking to “Persian-ize” Holy Karbala and cleanse it of “the real and authentic Arabs.”

For a while I thought that Hasnawi’s anti-Iranian statements were indication that the Mahdi Army had gone on the payroll of the harmful idiots. Not too strange a thought since the harmful idiots had in the past paid off Moqtadha as-Sadr and his Mahdi Army handsomely. But then it hit me:

Very possibly, even highly likely, Hasnawi’s anti-Iranian statements, which were followed by criticism by Sadr of the Badr Organization (SC) and Dawa for not calling for the withdrawal of the American occupying forces, were a ruse. Hasnawi and Sadr couldn’t have unleashed against Iran without the approval of the Islamic Republic. The idea: For the Islamic Republic through Sadr to pluck the new Islamic Arab Iraqi nationalism when such evolves, as it is bound to rise, sooner or later. In other words, Iran has accepted that Hasnawi make anti-Iranian statements to appeal to the Iraqi Arab Sunni (“our Sunni brothers”), now mostly on the US payroll. (Around 70,000 Sahwa tribal militiamen get their monthly salary from the American taxpayer.)

(This ruse isn’t new in the region. Hizbollah had taught it to Walid Jumblatt years earlier. Then both Jumblatt and Hizbollah had been trusted proxies of Syria. The ruse: Jumblatt sought to draw the Christians into his camp by criticizing (feigning to) Syria, giving them the hope that he would split from that country. Syria understood. And the Christian Lebanese gullibly voted for Jumblatt and his men leading to his parliamentary electoral victory. Soon after he won he again “re-aligned” back with Syria, doing a volte face on the Lebanese Christians. He executed this ruse at a time when he had been allied to Hizbollah. Hizbollah was/is way too close to Sadr in particular and the Iraqi Shia in general. Hizbollah could’ve taught the same ruse it had taught Jumblatt to Mahdi and Sadr.)

On a more immediate level: Iran knows with full certainly that its hold over the Supreme Council and Dawa is slipping. The Iraqi state which the SC and Dawa control is bringing in tens of billions of dollars in yearly oil revenues. SC and Dawa, the needy proxies of yesteryears, no longer are. They have hopes of independence. And Iran could not hope to appeal to them using the standard mobilizer: the Palestine cause. Palestine means nothing to these creations of the Islamic Republic. (Things could change and likely will.) True, they still are tied to the Islamic Republic, but these ties are fraying, day-by-day. Time to work out a new anti-colonial and nationalist opposition to the colonial occupation and the S.C.-Dawa American puppet state. Sadr and Iran here are on the same wavelength.

Al-Vefagh

I admit that I may be pushing the envelop. Reading al-Vefagh, the Iranian government’s Arabic daily, especially the front page editorials of Mussib Naimi (or Nuaimi), its Editor-in-Chief, one gets no hint whatsoever of that ruse. Mr. Naimi is fairly one-dimensional: Palestine is it. True: Palestine packs quite a punch with the Arab and Muslim public. But so does Iraq. Could Mr. Naimi be so naive politically as to ignore the importance of Iraq to an Arab public over which the Islamic Republic exerts so much influence? Highly unlikely. After all, his paper is meant for the Arab public. Or is it of the nature of a ruse not to be hinted at, not even to analysts, including this writer?

Iran knows -- or should know -- that Iraqi Arab nationalism is its best weapon against isolation in the region. (It missed its chance when it couldn’t overcome its animosity towards the Baath before the invasion.) That it is losing its appeal to and control of the S.C.-Dawa Shia state; that the Gulf Arabs will mistrust it come what may -- holding hands between Saudi King Abdallah and the Iranian President notwithstanding; that it now faces not only U.S. cheap printed money and huge Gulf surplus money but, too, the money that the Dawa-Supreme Council Shia state controls.

Can Mahdi do it? Can Sadr and Iran fire up an Islamic Arab nationalism which would join together anti-colonial Sunni and Shia forces in Iraq? The skeptics are many, including most recently the Chairman of the Politburo of the Sunni Brigades of the Revolution of the Twentieth. In a likely response to Sahnawi he condemned al-Qaeda but said his group feels closer to that organization than to Mahdi

The challenge for the Islamic Republic is immense now that it did what it did: assist the harmful idiots and the American Jewish Right in dismantling Arab Iraq while it created two monsters: the Supreme Council and Dawa. These should end up hounding Iran, especially if the American troop level remains high. Iran had early on seen in the SC-Dawa axis government a bridge to the harmful idiots -- to tame them and lead them in a Pavolvian-like fashion to accept the Islamic Republic and break the US campaign to isolate it -- to condition the harmful idiots, so to speak. But it's looking increasingly evident that this Shia government is slipping through Iran's fingers, and the high level of US troops should make that slippage yet more pronounced.

The Arab public should draw farther from Iran the more Sadr delays his confrontation with SC and Dawa and the longer it takes it to build an alliance with Arab Sunni anti-colonial forces. The farther the Arab public draws from Iran the more entrenched the harmful idiots become in Iraq.

Can Sadr and Iran afford to wait until the time when the number of U.S. troops had decreased to a manageable level -- manageable for a nationalist military confrontation with them that fires up the entire Muslim and Arab World, diminish Iran’s isolation, and empower it yet again as the country which leads the region? Mahdi needs Sunnis for that. The longer the delay the more matters should slip away from the hands of Sadr and Iran. (For instance, the Syrian Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs recently said that Syria needed $35 billion in foreign investments in the coming few years to keep up its current level of economic development. Was he hinting at the price tag for splitting from Iran and Russia? Or is he hinting to the two that they better increase their aid to Syria?)

Let’s watch to see if Sadr can hammer together his Sunni-Shia anti-colonialist coalition.