CHENEY’S PRE-WAR VISIT TO THE IRAN REALM: IS (BALD) SAMSON TRYING TO BRING DOWN THE TEMPLE?

First r o u g h draft

1. OMAN.

Stated goal: He’s preparing for war. Oman’s importance is that it sits across from Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s estimated that 20% of the world’s oil passes through that Strait. It’s also expected that Iran would try to choke that Strait. With Adm. William J. Fallon on his way out, the Vice President wants to ease the way for the military to perfect its war strategy against Iran.

(Adm. Fallon is a smart man, by definition, since he’s advised against going into a war which likely would become a morass for the US , for the region, and for the world. My impression is that he could see that hyper-readiness for war, even if meant as a bluff, might spin out of control and war, and the morass, would become a reality. He likely knows that the Israelis and a coterie of Arab intelligence service officers, on the payroll of or allied to the harmful idiots (e.g., for sure Kuwaiti intelligence which had been taken over by the harmful idiots ever since the Iran-Iraq war and had played a highly suspicious role in leading Saddam Hussein to invade, the UAE Navy -- see prior posts), ever since the dismantlement of Iraq and the resulting rise of Iran as regional power, have wanted to entrap Iran into a direct violent backlash, as they did to cause Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait. They have wanted this violent backlash to mobilize both the US public and the Gulf public to accept a lengthy though useless US stay in Iraq.)


Unstated goal: He wants to bring down the temple before he leaves office. Uncertain. Short of that, he has coordinated with John McCain (the timing of the visits smacks of coordination) to deliver the stage to him ready for war – to inform the nervous assets about continuity. (“Don’t worry this guy is a white war hero; he can beat a black guy in the US any day.”) An integral part to both inerpretations: to bluff to obtain concessions from Iran and Syria, especially in Lebanon.

Harmful and idiotic assumption: If war, the US military will be able to allow a high percentage of oil to still pass through the Strait. Eighty percent? Ninety-nine percent?

Another harmful and idiotic assumption: That such (securing the passage of a high percentage of oil through Hormuz) would dull the speculative craze that’s bound to hit oil prices.


2. SAUDI ARABIA.

The visit to Saudi Arabia. He’ll ask them to increase oil production when his administration or McCain’s orders war, to counter the inevitable :

i. Diminished supply which Iran will make sure will happen – at a minimum by cutting off its production temporarily , then bringing it up slowly to take advantage of the prices which would’ve gone through the roof;

ii. Venezuela may follow suit – aping the same tactic.

ii. Speculation. Which should take oil prices through the roof, anyway, especially if the recession, already in place, proves relatively mild.

Harmful and idiotic assumption: That Iranian missiles and/or agents in the Eastern Province (sleeper cells) will not be able to hinder oil production inside Saudi Arabia.

Corollary harmful and idiotic assumption: That speculation will not do the job for Iran. In other words, even if Iran fails to blow up oil installations inside Kuwait and the Kingdom, by missiles and/or by sabotage, that speculators wouldn’t already be sharpening their teeth to push oil prices radically higher, and spin the world into the deepest of recessions.

Another corollary harmful and idiotic assumption: that the world would stand behind the harmful idiots and the Israelis once these two carry out the Cheney threat.

THE CHENEY THREAT

If we’re in a recession, then I want the entire world to be in one, to make the point that the world (he means Russia and China) should back us up on disarming Israel’s foe. Let the world burn so that the Bush Administration and Israel can gain some satisfaction–any–from this horrible decision to dismantle the balancer of Iranian power. The world might just head in the opposite direction.

Further harmful and idiotic assumption: That the entire world, especially those whose currencies are pegged to the dollar, will bless the day they hitched their wagon to that horse. Especially that now the early advantages of a lower currency value have been exhausted and inflation has set in. Actual probability: they will curse that day. As a result, we should see American influence dim yet further after a war with Iran.

3. OPEN EMBASSIES -- SAUDI AND EGYPTIAN -- IN BAGHDAD. .

(Earth to harmful idiots: Ours is NOT an Arab army and therefore cannot mobilize Arabs behind it. Hear me well: the Arab army of Iraq is gone. Bye, Bye Arab army.)

So he wants his self-hating Arabs to open embassies in Baghdad. Stated goal: to counter Iranian influence.

Unstated goal: to give the occupation an Arab cover, since all the Bush/Cheney people have done until now has been perceived, and much of it in fact was, on behest of the Islamic Republic. (The argument can be made persuasively that even staying in Iraq helps Iran.)

Harmful and idiotic assumption: that these countries – Saudi Arabia and Egypt – would change the color of the occupation – an occupation by the sponsor of colonialist Israel, whose diaspora’s right wing boys helped the Vice-President disenfranchise the Arab Sunni of Iraq and dismantle their country.

Another harmful and idiotic assumption: that the Arab Sunni will trust the Saudis and the Egyptians, whose renewed presence in Baghdad should only (if mostly symbolically) give Arab legitimacy to the Shia and Kurdish States.

(NOTE: To be clear: no one should read into my analysis any special affection towards the late Saddam Hussein -- though I still haven’t gotten over the fact that we participated in the lynching of an Arab president! We even dispatched a US Senator, a Pennsylvanian, or he dispatched himself, to egg on the Hussein Court to speed up its work! Talk about active participation in lynching a Sunni Arab! My perspective is mostly one of balance of power. Having dismantled Arab Iraq, the harmful idiots’ desperation is due mainly to their inability, as a perceived Christian-Jewish nation, which occupation forces were mobilized accordingly, and which policies in Iraq have been sectarian from the beginning, to be an effective balancer of Iran, a Muslim nation.)

A corollary harmful and idiotic assumption: that the Arab Sunni of Iraq are madly in love with Saudi Arabia. This at a time when that Kingdom’s man, Tariq al-Hashimi, provides free legitimacy to the detention of thousands of their sons (some figures are putting the number at significantly higher than 30,000), stewing in camps and prisons run by the harmful idiots, the Shia State, and the Kurdish State.

Yet another corollary harmful and idiotic assumption: that the Arab Sunni would trust Saudi Arabia, whose esteemed leaders, especially the valiant and not excessively greedy prince Bandar bin Bush/Sultan, the said adopted brother of our President, couldn’t stop their friends and protector (the harmful idiots) from invading to dismantle the country where the Sunni Arabs had a large say, if not fully ruled. These are the same leaders who had allowed Saudi territory to be used to dismantle their country and disenfranchise them. (To compare and contrast: while a non-Arab state – Turkey – had not!) Too, as if the Sunni Arabs don’t see Egypt as a useless beggar state working for the harmful idiots and through them for Israel -- which very diaspora’s right wing treasures helped dismantled their country. In other words, the Arab embassies wouldn’t stand a chance without the help and allegiance of the Iraqi Arab Sunni–their co-religionists and once their brethren in Arab nationalism, before Israel and later Saudi Arabia emaciated that protector force. The Arab Sunni of Iraq will not trust the Saudis or the Egyptians.

Conclusions:

– He’s getting desperate and feeling that his compliant self-hating Arab leaders are useless. He’ll eventually blame them in his memoirs, and will not blame the Jewish Right nor his Christian Right. He has to live with the last two. And the Saudis will still take care of him and whatever oil or energy-related company he’ll be heading in spite of his criticism. You see: they’re compliant. They only worry about their princes’ wealth. That’s their allegiance.

-- He might be suspecting that Saudi leaders have opened a serious but secret communication channel with the Iranians. I have no evidence, but I would’ve done this a long time ago. I’ll need to go over my notes, but I do remember that Bandar bin Sultan had assigned someone or a team to remain in Tehran to coordinate. I don’t know what happened to that. I think the Iranians know that Bandar would be passe if a Democrat is elected President. Even if a Republican. Because any US administration would now want a King and a Crown Prince who don’t have any reputation for corruption. Corruption is what sinks US assets each and every time. Especially that political mobilization is such that the reputation of an asset is crucial! At any rate, the Saudis may have put in place an alternative secret channel, not Bandar-connected–if they’re smart, that is–and that’s a big if. But even Israel likely has done the same – open up a secret communication channel, active, with the Islamic Republic – but is waiting for the Bush/Cheney team to depart to make better use of the channel.) The Saudi-Iranian channel would be meant to establish a partnership between the two countries on various issues – to develop confidence-building steps that would secure Saudi Arabia’s stability. The Saudis, as the Israelis, would be waiting for the Bush/Cheney team to depart to make full use of their channel.


– When it comes to the bottom line, hey, for image sake, and to make McCain look good, what the hell! VP Cheney will do what needs to be done. It’s all about spin, anyway.


4. MEET WITH PETRAEUS AND CROCKER

Stated objective: to brief them on war and be briefed by them.

Unstated objective: to coax them about their upcoming testimony before Congress in early April. To Petraeus: if McCain wins, you’re Secretary of Defense; to Crocker: you’re Secretary of State. Just tell Congress the right thing.


5. IRAQ

Stated goals: to get the Shia and Kurdish States to be generous with the screwed Arab Sunni. To pass the oil and gas laws – to get something–anything! -- for his former US oil network and companies out of this entire bloody and damned entanglement! To be briefed on upcoming local elections. To discuss the planned long-term occupation of Iraq.

Un-stated goals: To find out first hand the state of cleansing of Iraq from Mahdi Army and al-Qaeda cells, fated to attack US troops if the harmful idiots order war on Iran. To tell them that he expects them to tow the line when he or McCain orders the war on Iran.

Harmful and idiotic assumption: That the occupying troops and the Iraqi army have cleansed the country of 90% of pro-Iranian fighters. Let’s ask the expert, Donna Quixote, a visiting cat at my place, about this. Even when I think I’ve cleaned the walk-in closets of her toy mice, and though my eyes are on her every time I open a closet and will not allow her to come in – I still find plenty of toy mice deep inside the closets, behind boxes and under piles of clothes on the floor. She’s getting in and planting her operatives! Even within Hakim’s people expect sleeper cells. These should appear with a vengeance and Hakim himself and his family would not be off limit. Run. Where to?


6. THE UNITED STATES AND CHENEY: IF YOU LIKE IRAQ SO MUCH -- STAY THERE.


Stated goal: To visit Iraq and the region.

Unstated goals: To spin; to portray success . “It’s good to be in Iraq,” he said. (SNL and The Daily Show: where are you?) Too, to hand the baton to Republican McCain, allied to the American Jewish Right which wants US war on Iran, as a means to secure the Israeli realm. But the Jewish Right, too, is behind since I’d bet the farm that the Israelis don’t trust them and their “theories’ any longer and want them to vacation not in Israel.

Harmful and idiotic assumption: the American public really cares about you. “It’s good to be in Iraq.” Please feel free to stay there, says the public. You don’t’ have to return. We’re voting for anyone who can fix the disaster you’ve created, unless you succeed at your inevitable racist or sexist campaign against the Democratic candidate.


Corollary harmful and idiotic assumption: That the American public cares about all that attention paid to the Middle East and the zero attention paid to the United states–at a time of a financial meltdown.