A HOT SUMMER OR A TEMPEST IN A TEAPOT?

DONA QUIXOTE AND THE HARMFUL IDIOTS BATTLE IT OUT ON THE STATUS OF FORCES AGREEMENT.

ruf drapht -- ceccond

There’s no question about it: Dona Quixote is getting nervous as the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the Badr/Dawa state and the harmful idiots, to allow the US troops to remain in Iraq for the long-term, nears signing.

In response, it is:

(1) Issuing Warnings; and
(2) Hinting at supporting Iraqi public mobilization against SOFA.

In turn, the harmful idiots are:

(1) Continuing with the Badr/Dawa state to clean up Sadrists; and
(2) Lamely trying to mobilize the Arab public (which hates their guts for dismembering an Arab country, sponsoring beloved Israel, and torturing at Abu Ghraib) against Dona Quixote via the issue of the UAE islands which Dona Quixote occupies.

Assessment: There’s a stalemate in Iraq, and both the harmful idiots and the Iranians are stuck with that stalemate, with nowhere to go, SOFA or no SOFA.

DONA QUIXOTE’S WARNINGS.

WARNING 1: AHMAD KHATAMI.

It started on Friday, May 23. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami in Tehran in his Friday sermon described the proposed security agreement (SOFA) as “enslavement without end, and the worst humiliation and debasement.” He said that he didn’t think “any free man in Iraq would accept this humiliation.” “Any person who signs the agreement,” he continued, “would be considered by Iran to be a traitor to Islam, to the Shias, and to the Iraqi people.” (My translation from Arabic.) Meaning: watch out, Badr/Dawa double agents. (This newsletter was first to call them double agents.)

He detailed what should be Iraqi objections to the agreement. Only one objection would properly belong to Iran: that the agreement to permit US troops to stay in Iraq for the long haul (10 years for now) would allow the occupation forces to wage attacks on neighboring countries.

WARNING 2: ALI AKBAR WILAYATI.

On or about May 26, Ali Akbar Wilayati, foreign affairs adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, joined his voice to that of Ayatollah Khatami. He stressed that the religious marja3iyyah (leaders) in Iraq will oppose the US maneuvers to have the security agreement signed by Iraq’s government. To be safe, in case they didn’t, we’ll make sure we so rumor them. So, a few days earlier, on or about May 22, the Associated Press would report that Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani had issued four secret fatwas declaring armed resistance against occupying troops to be legitimate. But a few days later, on or about May 28, people around Sistani said that the proposed security agreement between the Badr/Dawa government and the US was a matter for the people. Basically, it seemed Ayatollah Sistani was avoiding the issue by calling for a referendum on that agreement – and putting to rest the story/rumor of the four secret fatwas. Back to Wilayati. He said: “The security agreement eats away at Iraqi sovereignty and [aims to] control the wealth of the country, and to threaten the security of neighboring countries.” (My translation from Arabic.)


WARNING 3: SAYYED HASSAN NASRALLAH.

On or about May 27, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, added his voice to those of Khatami and Wilayati – but not the clever Sistani. In a speech to about 100,000 of the party’s followers in the southern suburb of Beirut, a stronghold of the party, he seemed to be dispensing advice to the Iraqi government. He did it by outrightly stating that Hezbollah stands with the Iraqi resistance, calling on the people and government of Iraq to follow the example of Hezbollah in resistance and liberation, and follow the example of the Palestinians in Gaza. (For an analysis of his speech, I’ve relied on Saad Elias’s take in Al-Quds al-Arabi.)


DMITRI MEDVEDEV: RELATED WARNING?

There’s no evidence that there’s coordination between Iran and Russia on a response to the harmful idiots’ plans to love Iraq, long term, as does Bald Samson -- and as do the September 11 Queen, and the Christian-Zionist Crusader. Still, Iraq might just be the place where a Russian response to the proposed US missile shield in Europe might take place. On or about May 22, just before the first Iranian warning had issued by Ahmad Khatami, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev issued a warning. He first declared his country’s willingness to negotiate with the US on the latter’s plans to build a missile defense system in Europe -- to deploy ten land-based interceptor missile silos in Poland and a guidance radar in the Czech Republic. But the Russian President hinted that should the US and Europe fail to reach an agreement with Russia, his country would consider a “proper response.”

Admittedly: it’s a long shot. But, again, could the “proper response” be in Iraq?

WARNING 4: THE SADRISTS.

Most recently, Moqtadha al-Sadr called for weekly demonstrations, every Friday, against the proposed security agreement. The campaign against his men is ongoing by US troops and the Badr/Dawa state troops. Also recently, Syria and Iran seemed to put an end to speculation, borne out of repeated defeats and associated wishful thinking, that Syria would allow itself to be snatched away by the US-Israel axis. The Defense Ministers of Iran and Syria, after signing yet another mutual defense cooperation agreement in Tehran, among other things, called for the withdrawal of “foreign and occupying troops” from the region. Earlier, we had learned that a Syrian delegation was in Russia to secure advanced weaponry. (Hence one reason for my linking between the warning by the President of Russia and a possible “proper response” to take place in Iraq, using Iran and Syria. The possibility of a quid pro quo between Russia on the one hand and Iran and Syria on the other.)

ANALYSIS

The problem for both Dona Quixote and the harmful idiots is that a stalemate is in place in Iraq. But for the activity by US troops and the Badr/Dawa troops against the Sadrists, and some work against the Sunnis in and around Mosul, there’s a stalemate. All are collecting paychecks and waiting. Likely for domestic American reasons, to get the new Administration stuck with a SOFA commitment, the harmful idiots are trying to move beyond the stalemate. And the Iranians, for their own domestic reasons and for not wanting to lose control over the double agents (Badr/Dawa), are activating against SOFA. But it’s a tempest in a teapot.

Not that there are no givens to the situation. There are. For example, the harmful idiots know that, should they withdraw, not only would civil wars erupt, but the harmful idiots would lose the marvelous Iraqi army they trained and equipped, the Badr/Dawa ancillary troops. That the double agents are only double agents because the harrmful idiots have a military presence in Iraq. That if they don’t, the double agents would fall back comfortably into Iran’s lap. Hence the harmful idiots’ need to get the new Administration stuck with a piece of paper to which the coterie of those who benefit from the adventure of Iraq could point to when they seek out an attack on Iran.

If they withdraw, what will happen to the 110,000 armed Arab Sunnis on the harmful idiots’ payroll, the Sahwas? They’ll engage in many civil wars: against Shia, intra -- but, more level headed ones would approach Iran and reach a deal. And Iran likely (this time) would listen, especially that US troops would be watching from the nouveau Israel, Kurdistan, and Kuwait. So the harmful idiots don’t want to “lose” those, not that they now have them. The harmful idiots are now fighting a Shia war, and the Arab Sunnis can wait. If anything, I’m likely complicating the life of the harmful idiots by raising the issue of the Arab Sunnis.

In the presence of US troops in Iraq, Iran has at least two major problems. They’re called: (1) Sunni distrust; and (2) Badr/Dawa unreliability. But should the harmful idiots order a withdrawal, these problems should diminish markedly. For now, dealing with the Sadrists and the Badr/Dawa double agents is a management nightmare for Iran. Heads might have to roll, if you know what I mean, so that everyone will know his place. Calling on the assistance of Lebanon’s Hizbollah is...lame. The popularity of Hizbollah in the Arab World shouldn’t be the same in Iraq simply because the Badr/Dawa state controls so any of the paychecks to the Shia and the Iraqis are tired from wars. The only time the Shia public will get incensed is if it senses that the harmful idiots will be stealing their oil. Anything short of that–and they shouldn’t care, at least not as much as Dona Quixote would like them to.

Hizbollah would be useful in at least one scenario -- if Iran uses its ultimate weapon. And, believe it or not, its ultimate weapon in Iraq is an intra-Shia civil war. You heard me. Because if Shia blood is spilt by Shia and the Americans, the Shia will blame the harmful idiots -- and not Iran. In that war, Hizbollah will come in handy to help the beleaguered Sadrists -- to balance out the help by US troops to the Badr/Dawa state troops.

THE HARMFUL IDIOTS WANT TO MOBILIZE THE ARABS. HA.HA.HA.

The harmful idiots are trying (HA, HA, HA) to get some Arab mobilizing (HA. HA) of their own against Dona Quixote (HA, HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, HA.) No, not in Lebanon. There, they let their proxies eat dirt since their beloved Israelis weren’t ready for an exchange of death-to-civilians missiles with Hizbollah. Especially that Hizbollah wasn’t about to accept any longer that Israel would massacre in cold blood 1200 Lebanese civilians while Hizbollah restrained itself for doing the same, as happened in 2006. So the harmful idiots are trying the UAE route: raising the issue of the three UAE islands which have been occupied by Iran for decades. In the past week, there has been a spitting match between the foreign ministries of Iran and the UAE about the islands. (I’m getting sleepy, so I’m not about to repeat for you the smart Alec statements by both.) I think the harmful idiots believe that the Arab public will mobilize behind the UAE on this one.

I don’t mean to be harsh on the UAE; I was recently there and I truly like them, albeit I never really met them. (I tell a lie, two Emiratis once ate at the same South Indian restaurant and invited me to share their lunch. Otherwise, the UAE is an extension of the British Raj.) But listen well: one statement from President Ahmadinejad about Palestine and the Arab Street will line up behind Iran, lock, stock and barrel. Not to explain something to the UAE policy thinkers working closely with the harmful idiots and trying to please them. I’m sure they know what I know, which I know they know but haven’t told it to the harmful idiots. Here it is: WHOEVER OWNS THE PALESTINE CAUSE OWNS THE ARAB STREET. The Arab Street is confident the harmful idiots will withdraw the troops from Iraq sooner or later, or will be forced to, but the Arab Street doesn’t know that there’ll be a Palestinian state until it sees one. And while no one doubts the Arab credentials of the UAE, the UAE is NOT capable of arming Hamas and Hizbollah and training the latter to match Israel technologically and organizationally and at times be ahead of it. Case closed. I apologize for being blunt.

IN SHORT.

I think that neither the harmful idiots nor the Iranians can battle it out militarily (by proxy) in Iraq for either to be able to convince the other not to do what it wants to do. Assassinations, demonstrations, a few military operations here and there. In essence, there’s a standstill. I think Iran might want to use Syria with some Sunnis . Syria does control a branch of the Iraqi Baath, but it’s unclear how much leeway, political or military, this branch has; I suspect not much.

It’ll be mostly a war of mobilization -- mobilizing an opposition to the basing of US troop. In this war, Iran will have the Sadrists and their ability or inability to draw in some of the Sunnis. The harmful idiots will have the Badr/Dawa state, whose people would be hedging their bets trying to please both masters. But whose ranks as double agents could be whittled down as Iran’s Iraqis eliminate those amongst them who will not know their place; and as the harmful idiots’ closest circles within the ancillary state retaliate with car bombs in Sadr City. Watch the Sadrists bring up together both the issue of Iraq's oil and that of US bases. Linking will help get better mobilization.