REALISM, GLOBALIZATION, AND UNIPOLARITY.

second (plus)f i r s t rough draft.

O women’s poet
In the age of darkness
Haven’t you learned yet
that I
I
[am] an exception to the rule.

Rita Audeh, “I'm a woman [who’s] different.”( Poem in response to one by Nizar Qabbani.) From the website www.Adab.com (My translation from Arabic.)

***

This is an attempt to fill in the gaps in logic that I perceive in my posts. I’m enumerating certain givens that likely pepper this newsletter’s posts but haven't been cogently stated.

1. GLOBALIZATION TRUMPS UNIPOLARITY. TOWARDS A NEW FOREIGN POLICY.

As this newsletter said a while ago (“An Imperial Blind Spot...”), quite before Russia re-asserted itself in the Caucuses, our domestic economic “expansion” has resulted in dollars flowing overseas at a speedy rate. That has made rivals rich and able to fund military and nationalist opposition to the oil-and-war schemes of the harmful idiots.

1.a. In other words, to revive U.S. influence and weaken rivals, it’ll take clamping down on our economic “expansion;” in addition, it’ll take sucking the dollars out of the global marketplace ( i.e., higher interest rates and taxation at home). There’s no question in my mind that, for a while now, economic globalization, an ideology of the harmful idiots, has trumped unipolarity. The brains behind foreign policy hadn’t caught up.

1.b. There’ll be domestic political repercussions to any attempt to suck dollars out of the coffers of rivals. Why? The same policy would suck currency out of the domestic economy. The harmful idiots engineered a run on the dollar in an attempt to get out of debt without taxation or raising interest rates -- one and the same as aspirating money out of the domestic economy. All of this while gaining new (Iraqi) oil fields with the cheap money. Engineering a run on the dollar isn’t working when it comes to regaining ground in foreign policy. Rivals have and will diversify reserves.

1.c. Alternatively, or along with the above, the harmful idiots will need to understand that mediating among regional rivals makes us shine – e.g., actively mediating between India and Pakistan instead of lining up with India to help contain China. While still calling on the Pakistani military to fight along the U.S. in the North-West Frontier Province. Mediating (while keeping strong conventionally and non, of course) beats invading and conquering -- and getting bogged down. The mind set will have to change (and will change) from triumphalism (the first time I use this word in this newsletter) to modest realism.

1.d. Too, we will need a new policy on “assets.” Not everyone who makes herself available should be accepted. Political scientists have always known that a modicum of corruption gets things done and therefore is acceptable. But corruption on the grand scale of the harmful idiots’ assets? No f—ing way! (This wording is inspired by Harry Wessel: A Capital Defense Attorney . Find it at www.harrywessel.com )

2. ISRAEL DEFEATS THE ARAB FRIENDS OF THE HARMFUL IDIOTS.

Once and for all the Arabs, in particular the intelligence services and governing elite of the regimes of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Uncle-Tom-Egypt, and the Gulf Emirates should get it into their head that they (“the Arabs”) have been dealt a historic defeat by the invasion of Iraq.

These “Arabs” now clamor to use Israel. They want it to put out the word within its diaspora in the United States to protect their privileges. Which devastates the minimal credibility they have with their people. To beg at the doorstep of the country which right wing diaspora had eliminated an Arab country off the map! Grant it: they do it in secret. But the counter-elite (e.g., Islamist) knows all about it.

Credibility of assets and allies is essential in the new foreign policy.


2.a It’s absolutely essential for places like Lebanon, in which the Saudi secret government (intelligence service) has wanted to ignite a Sunni-Shia civil war, that the Saudi elite (and the harmful idiots) understand the following:

i. That the Saudi intelligence plans for Lebanon (Saudi Foreign Legion to West Beirut, a Sunni-Shia civil war), meant to counter Hezbollah and contain Iran, are and will be to naught. These plans should harm Lebanon – and should later harm the Saudis. (Just heard that the Saudi government has invited Hezbollah officials to Riyadh. Haven’t confirmed it yet.)

Using Saudi intelligence money, there should emerge from Lebanon a stronger al-Qaeda branch. What if this branch shifts allegiance? What if it spins off groups with a different agenda (e.g., Fateh al-Islam), a highly likely possibility? What if it’s infiltrated and the infiltrators are able to carry out operations against Americans? The Salafis in Lebanon have understood the sectarian structure of their country so well that they now have portrayed themselves as Hariri men, to seek protection until they grow powerful enough. And Hariri, an extension of the Saudi royal governing elite, is willing to accommodate, protect, and fund them. In his mind, and that of Saudi intelligence, he needs a militia. The PLO no longer is in Lebanon to provide militia services. As a result, his behavior (and that of Saudi intelligence) has been erratic and dangerous: do I fund the Palestinian Sunnis? The Lebanese Sunnis? Doesn’t that mean that I’m funding Fateh al-Islam, an al-Qaeda organization? Because my money (the said $17 billion his late father made in Lebanon while sinking Lebanon into a $40 billion plus debt) and that of Saudi intelligence in the end will spread about to Sunnis who are al-Qaeda . And wouldn’t these same Sunnis be open to infiltration by those who have a gripe with the Saudi government and the United States?

The current lesson: the political opposition in the Sunni Arab World is stuck between al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda. Nothing in-between. Sad for them and perilous for us. When they invaded Iraq, the harmful idiots eliminated yet another component of Arab nationalism that at heart was Sunni but wide open to the Arab Shias. Arab political opposition is left only with al-Qaeda as an outlet.

3. DEFEAT OF THE "ARABS" REVISITED.

Understand this: Israel had begun to win a war against the Arabs when US troops invaded and conquered Iraq. You (Saudi intelligence and governing elite and the others enumerated above) have been defeated. (Israel itself was the biggest loser in the invasion, but that’s another topic altogether.) Never mind Bald Samson’s promises to the GCC leaders in May 2007, which promises resulted in the surge to stabilize things in Iraq. Relative stability has come with yet more dangers to the GCC princes and Kings. Why? The mix of policies (“counter-insurgency”) which the surge was all about has marginalized the Iraqi Arab Sunnis -- an army of the Arabs. So much so that they now are a fully defeated group.

Be mindful that the Arab Sunnis hadn’t been defeated for as long as they had been fighting the conqueror. But Saudi intelligence has used Saudi money and Jordan’s intelligence has provided its liaison services (between the harmful idiots and the tribes) to re-tribalize the Sunni Arabs and defuse the Arab Sunni resistance to conquest. One argument they used was powerful: your resistance is helping Iran.

Result: the Arab Sunnis of Iraq have become beggars and criminals in their own country:

i. On the payroll of the harmful idiots with these hoping to unload them on the Badr/Dawa state which, likely, will unload them onto the streets, especially if oil prices continue to fall;

ii. on the run from the Badr/Dawa state and the harmful idiots;

iii. in prison camps and jails run by the harmful idiots and the Badr/Dawa state;

iv. engaged in their own bloody civil war; devastated...

v. while Iran has been able to clamp down on the Shias not to have their civil war.


Israel’s right wing boys had taken over the Pentagon. Allied to the Christian Right, they were able to dispatch US troops to conquer Arab Iraq. The Arab Sunnis exercised their God-given right to resist conquest by troops coming from 6000 miles away. For as long as resistance was raging Israel hadn’t defeated “the Arabs.” But when “the Arabs” joined into the counter-insurgency effort by the harmful idiots, they shot themselves (and the forever self-defeating harmful idiots) in the foot – yet again.

What we have now in Iraq is way more dangerous to “the Arabs” and to their privileges (meaning the regimes, not to the Arab public, mind you, which has no privileges) --

– than the situation before the current one (when the Arab Sunnis were resisting conquest),

– than the situation which preceded invasion and resistance (when an Arab Iraq, emaciated by years of sanctions, still had the potential to rebound should the harmful idiots have allowed),

– than the situation which preceded sanctions by the harmful idiots (when an Arab Iraq, imperfect, but able to defeat the Islamic Republic, an Iraq that possessed a pan-Arab ideology that was inclusive of the Arab Shias.)

Can you see it? The Arab regimes have been descending deeper and deeper into disaster, thanks to playing along with Israel and the harmful idiots.

Enjoy Israel’s defeat of you and your defeat of yourselves.


4. COUNTERINSURGENCY IS FOR THE BIRDS.

The harmful idiots love their counter-insurgency. This reactionary passion is overwhelming. But their counterinsurgency is so moment-driven that, using it, they shoot themselves in the foot, again and again.

Grant it: they never should've dismantled the army and the Baath–blah, blah. Blah. But , as this newsletter had made it abundantly clear, the harmful idiots had no choice but to dismantle the army and de-Baathify. Why? It’s too much to re-explain in full. (Please refer to prior posts.) For one, they were basking in their own triumphalism. (Their commander-in-chief landed on an aircraft carrier. The non-reformed alcoholic was savoring his sadism. Jewish Right wing personalities, who now have staged a likely coordinated disappearance off the radar screen, were partying to no end while poking fun at Colin Powell for his hesitation.) For another, they had come into Iraq allied to forces that would not have stood for anything short of dismantling the army and de-Baathifying. The two together (triumphalism and allies) prevented them from thinking correctly. Most importantly, however, the harmful idiots came into Iraq under the banner of the Jewish Right and the Christian Right, the first anti-Arab to the bone, the second anti-Muslim. They were driven by a passion which they had borrowed from their Israelis. And an Israel mind set wasn’t going to allow for anything Arab to be strong – including an army and a party.

Counter-insurgency, as the harmful idiots then defined it, was mostly about showing the American public that violence was diminishing. They needed to buy time with the American public so that they can re-sell it the Iraq Project. By defining counterinsurgency as an abatement in violence meant mostly to buy time from the American public, the harmful idiots shot themselves in the foot. Lessening violence became an end in itself; they bought so much into it (typically the harmful idiots always are the first and only ones who buy into their propaganda) that they didn’t see that the country itself – which they want for bases and oil – was slipping through their fingers. They lost sight of the long-term. (I’m now talking as if I care about the Iraq Project; which I don’t. Devil’s advocate. Bear with me.) Missing the long-term has created a hazardous situation in Iraq and one that in no way is beneficial to the harmful idiots and their Iraq Project. Choose one: Iraq now is a dam ready to burst or a lake ready to be plucked by Iran.

(About the surge: Never mind that Iran deserves more credit for the drop in violence than the harmful idiots. I’m talking Shias. Not to simplify : Iran had decided that already it had won the political battle by owning the Badr/Dawa state. And it wasn’t to Iran’s interest to see an intra-Shia civil war rage and weaken the Shia realm. Nor see a Shia war of liberation, which would be redundant and a waste of energy since Iran can politically displace the harmful idiots. It has the – Shia – numbers. Hence Iran’s decision to pull Sadr back. Now likely it’s training him a la Hezbollah, lest the harmful idiots up the ante. Both Iran and Syria coordinated to quiet things down in Iraq since Iran owned the state. Quiet things down to ease the harmful idiots out of the country.)

But there's more.

Not only did the harmful idiots, so busy with their counterinsurgency, had the country (Iraq) slip through their fingers, to the point were the Shia state wants them out. The harmful idiots, in playing up to the American public about the decrease in violence, had missed something equally important. Their counter-insurgency, with help from Saudi intelligence, had successfully pulled the heart out of the once stellar Sunni armed rebellion. With that, the harmful idiots finished the only force that could stand up to Iran and its Badr/Dawa state. (The Kurds are useless.) Worse yet, they had finished an armed force which could’ve fended for itself to obtain a role within the new “Iraq.” And that role by necessity and definition would’ve kept Iraq more Arab than it is now or will be later.

Put differently, a better course would’ve been for the harmful idiots to reach a modus operandi with the Sunni Arab insurgency without defusing it. Keep it as it had been: vibrant. Instead, the harmful idiots and the Saudis began to pump money into the Sunni tribes. As a result, in good part, the insurgency, the best dam to Iran’s power, was no more. The Sunni insurgency could’ve been the harmful idiots’ best friend. They didn’t see it. In the end, it’s all about jobs for the harmful idiots. And counterinsurgency produces jobs.

4.a. The harmful idiots think they can replace the once highly organized and effective Sunni insurgency with a cozy relationship with Arab Sunni army officers. Good luck with that. When a sophomore in college, I would’ve agreed with this tactic.

4.b. The harmful idiots think they can checkmate Iran’s ownership of the Badr/Dawa state by developing a cozy relationship with the Arab Shia army officers. Good luck with that. When a sophomore in college, I would’ve agreed with that tactic.

4.c. The harmful idiots at some shoot-myself-in-the-foot level (“counterinsurgency”) think they can eventually stage a coup d’etat with these officers. Which tells me that they still haven’t appreciated the fact that their conquest of Iraq has brought out the sectarian genie. And that that the Iraqis had used that genie to defeat the Iraq Project and will continue to use it for as long as the harmful idiots are there. Talking sectarian: Iran knows it needs its Shia realm to protect it from the harmful idiots. (Even if the harmful idiots and Iran reach an understanding, their very presence in Iraq is threatening and would dictate preserving that realm.) It helps little to call on Arab embassies to open up in Baghdad to re-Arab-ize Iraq. When was it that a treasonous bunch of Uncle Tom regimes, with no patriotic credibility whatsoever, and corrupt to boot, can reclaim the Arab Street – so fascinated is that Street with Iran’s (and Hezbollah’s and Syria’s and Hamas’s) defiance of the harmful idiots’ colonialist ally, Israel? For now: Bye, bye Arab Iraq.

About the sectarian genie and a coup d’etat: All one needs is a series of explosions against a sect and the members of that sect in the army would psychologically if not logistically (remember the "checkpoint" where soldiers of the same sect allow through their sectarian warriors?) and maybe physically return to their sectarian base. Especially if an alternative source for salaries is available. (Recall the example of the Lebanese army during the civil war.) A civil war trumps a coup d’etat. Put differently, the armed forces are a reflection of the society from which they sprung, an observation that applies more to rich regions than to poor. Iraq and its region are rich. And so the corporate spirit the harmful idiots are playing for, where those in the armed forces would see their economic interest as separate-and-apart from the rest of society, can’t happen. Why? Because the sectarian politicians control the oil revenues. Any threat to their control and they’ll go sectarian all the way – with car bombs and arrests and torture, and so on of gory violence against the other sect. All to foil the evolution of a corporate and self-interested spirit within the armed forces, as not to allow these to become the Trojan Horse which the harmful idiots would use to establish permanent bases.



5. UMMA!

(You like to say that, don’t you? “Umma!”)

Though the Arab public knows that Hezbollah is a tool of Iranian foreign policy, it nonetheless cuts it a slack because that tool still is Arab and is fighting Israel. Accordingly, Hezbollah is part of the never-dying aspiration of joining together the nation, be it Arab or Islamic, or Arab-Islamic.

The Arab public is aware that the harmful idiots and their Israel have defeated its attempt to pull things together and unite in one nation. It hasn’t forgotten the 1967 war, meant to defeat Nasser and Arab nationalism. Israel then, aspiring to be an arm of the harmful idiots, became that. And it certainly will not forget that Israel’s right wing diaspora was instrumental in directing the harmful idiots’s armies against Iraq, an imperfect Arab country, but Arab. Score two for Israel and its sponsor. Hence the popularity of Hezbollah. It’s about having an army for the umma; and, too, it’s sweet revenge for the Arab public -- for Abu Khaled (Nasser) and for Iraq.

The Arab public is aware that the Israel-inspired assault on it and its aspirations is never-ending. It knows that such ideas as the Greater Middle East, the New Middle East, and the Union for the Mediterranean ideas are put out by Israel’s right wing diaspora ( the first two) or by an asset of the US-Israeli/right wing diaspora phenomenon (the third) to create a realm where Israel lords over the Arab hinterland.

It’s eminently obvious to the Arab public that the more natural union, an Arab one, isn’t on the agenda of those who are Israel-inspired; those who want to split the Arabs so that they can control oil and have permanent bases.

6. ANTI-CORRUPTION.

Iran’s revolutionary allies –Hamas and Hezbollah, but especially Hezbollah – happen to be nearly free of corruption. While the assets of the harmful idiots are not. To say the least. It seems that uncontrollable greed is a pre-condition to becoming an asset of these.

So it’s not only defiance against Israel. Things seem to go in tandem: to defy Israel and its plans for settlements and its use of its diaspora to further the privileges of the reactionary Arab regimes goes together with the near-absence of corruption. Go figure.

7. MERE PRESENCE BY THE HARMFUL IDIOTS IN THE HEART OF THE ARAB WORLD IS PRESCRIPTION FOR FURTHER RADICALIZATION OF THE ARAB PUBLIC.

I went over to the libraries at the American University and Georgetown looking for Leonard Binder, ed., Politics in Lebanon. That book likely was published in 1961 or 1962. If my memory serves me well, the book provided insight in part about Lebanese politics before and after the landing of the U.S. Marines in Lebanon in 1958. Vaguely, I remember Mr. Binder’s conclusion where he warned against direct U.S. intervention in the Middle East. (Remember, these were the days of mass mobilization under Nasserism.) That such intervention was bound to further anger and mobilize the Arab public against the West.

I don’t’ think much has changed. Instead of Arabism, it’s now Islamism. Iran for Egypt; Iraq for Lebanon.

(I didn’t find the book. At A.U., Leonard’s book was stored away; at G.U., it had been checked out.)