SAUDI ARABIA DRAWS CLOSE TO THE ISRAEL LOBBY

third and straight-shooting rough draft

UPDATED 10/5/08 (I mean the "straight-shooting." Read on if you have the courage to shed your erratic wishful thinking.)

And I've retraced the steps of [my] youth and its roses
Walking instead on thorn

Ahmad Shawqi. (My traslation)

In “No shame.” I built on the prominent display by the Saudi daily al-Riyadh of a thinly-veiled adaptation of an anti-Syria article in an Israeli newspaper. The Israeli article likely was part of a campaign of misinformation by the Axis of Conquest and New Colonialism -- the harmful idiots and Israel. Significantly, that article added to a tentative conclusion long reached by this newsletter that the Saudi ruling elite had been drawing closer to the Israeli.

This newsletter has always maintained that the Saudi ruling elite can’t afford to alienate the Israel lobby in the United States, if only because that lobby can launch one campaign after another against that elite. The Defense Policy Board’s (not-so-indirect) threat to unseat the royal family and break up the kingdom, I strongly suspect, has been etched in the brain of that elite for a generation. In the spirit of comprehensiveness, it's likely that the Saudi ruling elite has a more pressing reason to open up to the Israel lobby (and to hold an inter-faith conference -- see below.) The Saudi ruling elite is searching for an American constituency (the Jewish) that would support continued U.S. military presence in Iraq. For the novice: Saudi Arabia doesn't have a competent army. Iraq once defended it against Iran. Now the Saudi ruling elite is looking to use the U.S. armed forces to balance Iranian power. The Israel lobby and Israel's diaspora are its hope for keeping U.S. troops in Iraq.

Drawing closer to Israel could be seen in yet another more recent and seemingly run-of-the-mill incident. The Saudi al-Hayat (it really isn’t Lebanese; it’s Saudi) on its website featured on November 2 an opinion piece by a “Ben Fishman.” The article's heading was prominently displayed, the first of three, placed on top of the “Special [to al-Hayat]” column. Clicking the article's heading, one finds out that “special” does in fact refer to “special[ to al-Hayat].” Meaning, either the Saudi al-Hayat had solicited Mr. Fishman for the article or that Mr. Fishman had sent it especially for al-Hayat. Mr. Fishman was described as a “researcher specializing in the affairs of the Middle East at the Washington Center for Near East Policy.” (Al-Hayat had been on an anti-Syria campaign for a good while now. As with other Saudi newspapers, and Arab newspapers funded by Saudi intelligence or the Saudi government, and the satellite television station, al-Arabiyya, these media outlets are expected to be at the disposition of Saudi intelligence as propaganda outlets and policy tools. In that sense, they're no different from the Syrian or Egyptian media outlets.)

Within a week now we have two seemingly run-of-the-mill incidents : the prominently- displayed heading given the adaptation of the Israeli article in al-Riyadh -- see “No Shame” -- and the equally prominently-displayed heading given the Washington Center’s opinion piece in al-Hayat.

Is this evidence that the Saudi ruling elite is now in full alliance with Israel? Or is it that the Saudi ruling elite is sending the Iranian and Syrian a message to return the Saudi proxies to power in Lebanon, or risk Saudi Arabia drawing yet closer to Israel? Or is the Saudi ruling elite paying off/encouraging the Israeli counterpart now that Israel has announced its acceptance of the Saudi peace initiative? Or is the Saudi ruling elite keeping the carrots flowing to Israel and its people in the U.S. to ward off campaigns against it in the United States by the same people -- to tame the Israel lobby, so to speak?

BY WAY OF ANSWERS

First: It’s doubtful that these run-of-the-mill incidents are indication that Saudi Arabia is now allied to Israel. I think likely there’s a decent level of cooperation at the intelligence level, directly and through Jordan and Egypt. Israel is an intelligence fiend. It collects and trades intelligence -- including about this writer. My suspicion is that it passes intelligence on to Saudi Arabia as a lure to show usefulness and for wider relations. It’s doubtful, however, that these mostly one-way exchanges of intelligence will get Israel the wider relations it’s hoping for. But the cost for Israel is low anyway, since its spy and informant network already is established. Worth a try. Still, objectively, there’s seemingly little for Saudi Arabia in the wider relations with Israel than the appeasement of Israel so that Israel would not unleash its people in the U.S. against Saudi Arabia. But viewing the severe financial crisis, and the association between the Israel lobby and the financially disastrous (at a minimum) Iraq adventure/aggression, even the best campaigns by the Israel lobby should go nowhere. There’s always the possibility that the Saudis are misreading the power of Israel and its hyper-mobilized diaspora at this time in American politics. Or the Saudi ruling elite could simply be behind the curve, as it usually is.

Second: It could be that the Saudi ruling elite is sending Iran and Syria a message, a threat really, that these two had better return the Saudi proxies to power in Lebanon or risk an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The issue is whether Iran and Syria would fall for that scheme. Already Syria and Iran have succeeded at putting the Saudi ruling elite in the Israel box, so to speak. Which is not a benefit for that elite vis-a-vis its people -- especially as the oil surplus begins to evaporate.

The coming conference among the sects, organized by the Saudi ruling elite to take place in New York City, is essentially meaningless, though in the end likely harmful to the Saudi ruling elite. (That's their business; but I have to try to be comprehensive.) It is tantamount to that elite shooting itself in the foot. That elite is falling into the very trap which Iran and Syria would've liked to set up for it. Only that it's setting it up for itself, with help from the harmful idiots. I can understand the urge the Saudi elite feels to defuse the Israel lobby efforts against it and to disturb the elite's alliance with the harmful idiots, using silly like conferences for that purpose. I can also understand that, under pressure from the harmful idiots, that Saudi elite sees the conference among the sects as a fig leaf behind which it can hide to initiate direct contact with the Israeli leaders. But the harmful idiots are infamous for miscalculating (e.g., Lebanon, Iraq.) And here, too, they're miscalculating yet again. For neither Israel will come around because of that conference, nor its lobby, because direct contact between the Saudi elite and Israeli leaders is irrelevant. Iran, Syria, and the Palestinians (and I mean Hamas) are the essential players who would be absent. The Saudi ruling elite, though rich, is NOT an essential player. It doesn't even have a competent army of its own and it has lost Iraq's. Not to mention that it recently has been dealt defeat after defeat: 2006 unsuccessful attack by Israeli proxy on Lebanon (Israeli/harmful idiot defeat, really), failure of the Mecca Accord, Saudi Foreign Legion and ambassador scooting out of Beirut in haste in May before the Hezbollah drive, Saudi proxies in Lebanon becoming irrelevant and alive only thanks to Hezbollah smarts, Shia state in Iraq -- notwithstanding Saudi/harmful idiots' attempts to divide the Shias along Najaf-Qum lines -- , Arab Sunnis of Iraq marginalized.)


But for the huge oil money surplus the Kingdom has amassed, and the concomitant legitimacy and time this money has re-bought the ruling elite, that elite would’ve been in deep trouble for drawing closer to Israel. And, consequently, Iran and Syria would’ve achieved a significantly higher level of success vis-a-vis that elite. In short, Saudi Arabia drawing closer to Israel to obtain concessions from Iran and Syria in Lebanon is a bad bluff. Iran should be unwilling to compromise over Lebanon, and not only because Lebanon provides it a front with Israel. Lebanon, too, can become a financial safety valve for the Islamic Republic in case things sour up with Dubai, the current financial lungs to the Republic. In other words, a Shia-led Lebanon with such a long and established banking history and financial know-how could prove godsend for the Islamic Republic should Dubai and the U.A.E. turn into a terror front -- should the harmful idiots in turn succeed at squeezing Iran out of Dubai, forcing Iran to look for unconventional warfare for retribution. It’s like the Mafia: we trusted you with our money...

Lebanon too holds another advantage to the Islamic Republic. Its Shia diaspora is found all over the globe. As when Israel had used those members of the Lebanese Forces who had trained in Israel during the civil war, and as it has used members of the Druze sect and likely still does, so would Iran use the Lebanese Shias and, financially, likely a smattering of Christians and others -- as spies, informants, operatives, bankers, front offices, and so on. Yes, Saudi Arabia is richer than Iran and enjoys a larger accumulated surplus. But Iran has armed forces, guerrillas, seasoned fighters, and a huge following in the Arab World. Many in that World cherish Iran for standing in the face of Israel and the harmful idiots, especially after these had wiped a Sunni-led state off the map. Read the non-Saudi funded Arab press. You don't see much criticism of Iran, do you? Why? Because the Arab intelligentsia and the Street, until further notice, see a strong Iran as the best hope for a Palestinian state and for reparations. Not the silly Saudi ruling elite, always kissing ass with the harmful idiots, and always on its knees. The Arabs only have Hezbollah and Hamas as armies. And these survive thanks to Iran and Syria. Can't let go of these before a Palestinian state is achieved. Not while Israel and the secessionist Kurds are armed to the teeth and the harmful idiots want to keep troops and bases in the heart of the Arab World. All other Arab armies (Egyptian, Iraqi) having vanished.

Third: Yes, likely the Saudi ruling elite may think that the prominent display of an adaptation of an Israeli article in a Saudi daily and the equally prominent display of an opinion piece by Mr. Fishman in the Saudi al-Hayat are helpful if only as symbolic messages to Israel to go forward with the Saudi peace initiative. To go beyond maneuvering and actually withdraw from Arab lands. Does the Saudi ruling elite believe this is either sufficient to move the Israelis forward at a time when the Syrians are negotiating with the Israelis in Turkey or safe enough for that elite to risk the appearance albeit veiled of drawing closer to the Israelis? That elite must’ve assessed that it was safe to risk it -- to publish prominently Israeli misinformation and opinion in its newspapers . The large oil money surplus must’ve provided that elite with the cushion of safety it needed. But will this scheme by the Saudi ruling elite produce the hoped-for results? Will it motivate Israel to start withdrawing? The answer: I don’t think the Saudi ruling elite really cares, one way or the other. Just as Israel likely is maneuvering by announcing acceptance of the Saudi peace initiative –- about which it’s now retreating –- Saudi Arabia likely is too. In the end it's about those who are directly involved: the Israelis and the Palestinians and Syrians. The Saudi ruling elite should stay the hell out of it, lest it sells out these Arabs as it sold out the Arab Sunnis of Iraq and lest it engenders yet new bitterness among the Arab public about Arabs doing in Arabs to please the harmful idiots and their Israelis.

Finally, Saudi Arabia objectively shouldn’t be expected to care about what the Israel lobby can do to it in the United States. Unless, of course, the Saudis are misreading American politics at this time of severe crisis. That lobby is in deep public relations trouble since it’s perceived (though no one dares say it for fear of accusations of anti-Semitism) as having such a close association with the Iraq adventure and the disastrous financial repercussions -- real, direct, or not -- of that adventure on the economic health of the country and the welfare of its people. So many Americans now are considering return to work on an over time basis to make up for their losses. Few care about anything else, Israel lobby campaigns or not.