WAITING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA : A REFORMULATION

1. I can’t imagine the alert Iranian government not having evolved a strategy on dealing with the (SOFA) Treaty. A strategy, I’m certain, exists and is always evolving. And that strategy includes the scenario of levels of confrontation, by proxy and directly with the harmful idiots and their Israelis.

2. For now, however, that government’s bottom line is to wait on Mr. Obama -- to wait for January 21 of 2009. That wait supersedes Iran’s evolving strategy, and doesn’t supplant it. More correctly, as a wait, it’s part and parcel of the evolving strategy, isn’t it?

3. Depending on how the new President handles differences with Iran, Iraq could sink back into chaos and the new administration would have to face the issue of whether or not to war with Iran -- directly. Going to war wouldn’t be a palatable decision in the midst of bankruptcy, would it? After all, going to war (started as an Israel-centered oil grab, turned into a war, then now into an idiotic attempt at balancing Iranian power) was one major reason for bankruptcy, wasn’t it?

4. An obvious bottom line for Iran is one where Iran couldn’t be expected to accept tens of U.S. bases in Iraq, restraints or no restraints, promises or no promises. The Iranians should be expected to know, shouldn’t they, since they’re not idiots, that once out of bankruptcy the harmful idiots might just be all too happy to war with Iran. And they’d have the bases in Iraq to to help them. Might as well accept Israeli bases in Iraq, financed by the Saudis.


5. This Iranian bottom line is especially well-grounded since Islamic Iran doesn’t have a lobby or a well-organized diaspora in the land of the harmful idiots. In contrast, Israel does; and I suspect so do the Saudis through their rental of Israel's diaspora, their alliance with the Israelis and, I suspect, likely rent payments to Israel to put that diaspora to work on behalf of joint Saudi-Israeli projects. (Based on only one encounter, I suspect that Saad al-Hariri, a Saudi intelligence man for all practical purpose, is spending money to develop a Lebanese-American lobby in the land of the harmful idiots, one that’s in tune with Saudi intelligence’s wishes, and (based on the one encounter) allied to the Israel lobby.)

6. In this context of near-absolute non-acceptance of U.S./Israeli (and Turkish) bases in Iraq, Iran should be expected to always be preparing for eventual war with the harmful idiots and their beloved Israelis. Iran would have to account for the distinct possibility that President Obama could lend his ear to a version of the harmful idiots who had entrapped us in Iraq on Israel-centered suspect ideas.

7. As tough towards Iran as the military wants Mr. Obama, the new President’s got more serious – even dire – domestic issues to confront. Direct war with Iran would be a truly unwelcome event that would sink the country (ours) deeper into financial chaos. To be fully pessimistic: President Obama might take the middle course and tighten the screws of sanctions on Iran. If he does, he should know (assuming he has non-idiot-harmful advisers) that Iran would have no choice but to retaliate.

8. Courage, and decision-making that is independent of the forces that entrapped us in Iraq – “change” – I submit, should be the course for Mr. Obama.

. . .

(But remember: plus ca change... Oh well.)