NAUSEA

a draft

After I wrote the last two posts, but especially after the last one, I started feeling nauseated. I tried to fight it off but couldn’t. It happened when it dawned on me that the Israeli intelligence “leaked” report mentioned in the last two posts was nothing but a begging gesture by the Bush administration.

Bush through Israel was begging Iran to allow him a face-saving way out for his two-term administration. We’ll allow our Saudi boys to open up to you (Talal’s statement and the proposed conference among the ulamas of Saudi Arabia and Iran) if you allow for the enacting of SOFA. Do what you will after January 20. But until then, please give us a veil behind which to hide. So that we can tell the American public that President Obama and his lefties screwed it up. That the Evangelist Right and Israel’s diaspora boys, the right wing and their awed ululating liberals, had at least achieved an honorable way for tenure in Iraq.

Pitiful for the strongest country on earth.

The nausea came on with vengeance, repeatedly. Maybe it was the antibiotics, I thought, having been on a course of those after a bone graft to save a tooth. But I googled the antibiotics. It wasn’t.

It was clear that the humiliating behavior of Crusader -- I can’t even be sarcastic. It was the obsequiousness of Bush’s team through its Israelis; it was that of the unreal Saudis, still testing the contours of their financial prowess and harming others in the meanwhile, which was causing the nausea.

Not that I want war with Iran. I certainly don’t. The harm the harmful idiots had done -- has been done. I don’t even think Iran’s nuclear threat is a threat. How could a first strike capability be a threat when Israel and the harmful idiots have a second strike capability -- on German-made submarines for the Israelis.

The nausea hit me again as I was editing the last post. I spoke to a friend to dispel it. It didn’t work. I decided that the second draft would have to do. And I vomited.

MORE ON THE ISRAELI-SAUDI ALLIANCE: THE ACNC/OR!

2nd draft

Ask the pretty one in the black satin dress
What have you done to the reclusive monk, so adoring of his God?
Have you [and your beauty] taken away from him his Faith?
And his [religious] certainty? ...

Sabah Fakhri -- start of a song*

(* What brought this recollection about: I read in an Arabic newspaper that the Aleppo singer, Sabah Fakhri, was in Abu Dhabi or Qatar. Can't tell you how much it made me want to be at that concert.)


It just hit me why the Israeli intelligence report I spoke about in the last post may possibly have been -- I would now say: highly probable -- meant as misinformation.

ACNC/OR

Be mindful that there likely is an operation room (OR) which includes representatives of the Axis of Conquest and New Colonialism (ACNC) -- the harmful idiots and their sweetheart. This OR, too, includes some self-hating Arab Uncle Toms (anything for a buck ) from the intelligence services of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and maybe other Arab countries.

When Israeli intelligence (or other intelligence services in the ACNC/OR) has a report leaked, likely that report’s leak would have been orchestrated/doctored by the ACNC/OR.

WHO WILL OWN THE INITIATIVE TO START TROUBLE/WAR?

Thus viewed, that “leaked” report, by stressing Israel’s wish to draw closer to Saudi Arabia, sophomorically was meant to continue to appease Iran until such time when the harmful idiots get out from under the onus of bankruptcy and can wage an epic war on Iran. More immediately -- and yet more sophomorically -- until such time when the Iraqi parliament approves SOFA -- which it recently had.

How? By portraying Israel so publicly (the "leaked" report) as wanting to get closer with Saudi Arabia (which already it is), the ruse is to have Iran want to do the same -- and abhort any thinking by Iran to take on the initiative for war inside Saudi Arabia or, more importantly and likely, inside Iraq. Limited war now would benefit Iran since it'll deepen the financial crisis in the West and raise oil prices, to boot. Limited war may not benefit Iran at a later date.

APPEASE SYRIA, TOO -- THE RUSE (SEEMING, TO IDIOTS) GETS MORE INTRICATE

That report, too, spoke about continuing on with peace talks with Syria. This indicates (likely) that the sophomoric ACNC/OR still believes it can get an Israel-Arab front organized against Iran. But as it came right before the Iraqi parliament’s vote, it likely was meant (sophomorically) to appease Syria, too. With the side benefit of trying yet again to split Syria from Iran. (Repeat after me: sophomoric, too.)

USE THE ARAB NATIONALIST, TALAL, SINCE HE'S THE ONLY PATRIOT LEFT AMONG THE ISRAEL-HUGGING SAUDI RULING ELITE

Even Talal’s statement -- calling on the Gulf countries to reach an agreement with Iran -- likely, though not absolutely (I have a weak spot for the Arab nationalist Talal) -- is the product of the ACNC/OR. It seems that the ACNC is on a course of appeasing Iran (and Syria) until such time when the picture becomes clearer about the impact of bankruptcy on the spread of the harmful idiots’ troops in the Arab oil region. (To the troops: please forgive me; I had nothing to do with your alliance with the people who disintegrated an Arab country and bankrupted us).

Yes, Virginia: Iran and Syria are stupid.

Idiots-


(To be continued, below.)



Idiots!

IRAN’S SECRET AND DEVASTATING WEAPON

second dd r A f T, with at least one correction.


ISRAEL AND IRAN COMPETE FOR THE AFFECTION OF SAUDI ARABIA

Israeli intelligence recently leaked one of its own reports. In that report it outlined the alleged course ahead. Among its stated goals was to have Israel draw close (or closer) to Saudi Arabia. Israel’s forte in this endeavor, I would think, is its ability to sell “intelligence” and rent its American diaspora’s services to the Saudi ruling elite. (No, it can’t balance Iranian power. On that end it’s useless, even harmful, even though it probably is currently participating in the joint military training and maneuvers with the Saudis and the Egyptians at Tabuk in Saudi Arabia.) Mis-perception and mediocre analysis (by the Saudis) are of help to the Israelis in their endeavor. The ruling Saudi elite, after all, is a few years behind on American politics. Which serves well the Israelis. That elite is acting on the the illusion that Israel’s American diaspora still has the influence it had at the start of the project to dismantle an Arab country -- a mission accomplished. It doesn’t; though it still has influence. The Saudi ruling elite will catch up when the oil surplus dries up, before it flows again. It’ll then have to destroy all mirrors in the Kingdom for kissing so much Israeli ass.

INTRODUCTION TO AMERICAN POLITICS: AN UN-DISCIPLINED LOOK

Anthropologically the consensus within the American body politic/society, it seems, is to allow for two well-defined ethnic poles: (1) the Jewish, which engine is the rally-around-Israel cry; and (2) the African-American, which engine is the rally-around-fighting-racism-and-discrimination cry, for self and for others in American society. (Comically, the wider society has given each pole the task of monitoring the other.)

The rally-around-Israel cry serves the body politic/society in that it offers a pillar for imperial expansion into the Arab oil region. Oil for the society of the tax base and accumulated capital (ours) is an essential staple. And the Jewish pole promises to get us control over that oil -- Iraqi and later Iranian. For now, that promise has failed, not because we’re not getting the oil. Big Oil, both American and European, I think will get the lion’s share of it. The problem is that the price tag -- paid by the tax base and not by accumulated capital (Big Oil) -- for getting it has proven so exorbitant as to have contributed to our bankruptcy. In addition, it's eminently likely that the price will continue to go up as the harmful idiots struggle to stay in Iraq.

The rally-around-fighting-racism-and-discrimination cry strengthens the domestic front. It may, too, serve as an imperial pillar (very symbolically) in Africa where strategic minerals are found -- when the time comes to compete in full with the Chinese on that continent.

At any rate, don’t for a moment doubt that both poles are creations of the wider consensus within the American body politic. Neither is the product solely of its own independent endeavor. The wider social consensus is essential for the existence of both poles. (For example, the Turks enslaved my grandfather and 19 others from his small village in Lebanon and drove them in chains and on foot to Turkey. Only 5 returned. Yet, you don’t see the Lebanese Christians make such a big deal of the affair, even though I suspect -- and have heard -- that the Turks did the same in many small Christian towns. Why? Because the wider Christian Lebanese consensus has refused to make a business out of it. Nor did the wider Arab and Muslim consensus encourage it.) One pole now is on top. The other is blamed for bankrupting us with the Israel-anchored Iraqi oil grab, which turned into a war, and now into a silly attempt at balancing Iranian power while preparing for the next war, this time against yet another of Israel’s foes -- the Islamic Republic of Iran. Imbroglio (and financial bleeding) galore.

ISRAEL DOES HAVE A FOOTHOLD WITHIN THE ONCE-ARAB RULING ELITE OF HE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA

As the Israeli intelligence report made clear (allegedly -- be mindful that it could be all about misinformation, choreography, or trial-ballooning) , that country is after closer relations with the Kingdom. Likely it’s encouraged by the opening towards it of the Bandar faction in Saudi politics, itself an extension of the alliance of the American Jewish Right (e.g., Bald Samson, the Defense Policy Board) and the Christian Right (e.g., Crusader and his Muslim-warring Evangelists.) Other ambitious princes, too, had been lured by Israel or its American diaspora -- Turki al-Faisal and al-Waleed bin Talal. (See prior post, “Israel Says Who Can be Saudi King.” I’m going on memory about the post’s heading.) But neither Turki nor al-Waleed, both Arab and never having suffered from rejection in their culture, had gone all the way in seeking Israel’s approval as had Bandar. Turki’s father, after all, was Faisal -- likely the best(non-corrupt) king Saudi Arabia ever had. Al-Waleed hails from Talal, an Arab nationalist through-and-through who was made to pay a heavy political price for his genuine patriotism.

Correction: Turki a few months ago participated in a conference in Oxford, England, along with at least one Israeli former official. That tells me that he still thought that Israel via its diaspora within the American body politic (one of the allowed-for ethnic poles -- see above) can advance his career. Else, he would've sent a lower official.

OH, HOW IRAN LOVES ‘YA SAUDI ARABIA

Iran, too, wants to draw closer to Saudi Arabia. Its forte (one of them) is its ability to mess things up in the Gulf. Watch as the sectarian tension continues to flare up in Kuwait. Kuwait was and is a base for the harmful idiots from where they and Kuwaiti leaders had entrapped Arab Iraq. There’s no evidence that Iran is playing any immediate and direct role in this sectarian flare-up. But you get the point about a sectarian rift that’s ripe for the picking.

(Background: the Kuwaiti Prime Minister, member of the ruling family, had allowed into the country an Iranian Imam who was said to be quite anti-Sunni. A few Islamists in the Kuwaiti Parliament, which is dominated by the Muslim Brothers and the clans/tribes, freaked out at the Prime Minister’s action and threatened to embarrass him by questioning the cabinet. The cabinet resigned to avoid embarrassment. As a further background: be mindful that Kuwait is torn: On the one hand it’s under the thumb of the harmful idiots, a base for them; on the other it has a Shia minority that’s attuned to events in Lebanon and Iraq; yet, too, it’s a majority-Sunni country and the Sunnis are reeling from the perceived defeat which their ass-kissing and mediocre-thinking rulers had handed them . These had aligned their countries with the alliance of the harmful idiots and the Israelis, as this symbiotic alliance had pursued its project to dismantle Arab Iraq to control its oil. Suddenly, all the scheming and entrapping by Kuwait’s leaders of Arab Iraq, on behest of the harmful idiots and the Israelis, have -- and should continue to -- come home to roost.)

Iran’s influence is pervasive, not only among the Shias but among the Arab (Sunni) Street. It can allow for Saudi partnership in Iraq and Lebanon, and it can not. (Saudi money can buy -- and is buying -- influence in Lebanon, but Iran can shut out Saudi Arabia as Hizbollah did in May, and likely will have to do it yet again. My suspicion is that Iran has come in with a lot of money deposits in Lebanese banks to save that country from bankruptcy since the Saudis would only help it out if they owned it. And they’re not being allowed to own it. They’re being offered a partnership, no more. ) The relationship with Iran is up to the Saudi ruling elite and that elite’s stand vis-a-vis the preparations for war on the Islamic Republic by the harmful idiots and their Israelis. Recently, there have been Saudi openings towards Iran. Talal bin Abdul Aziz, the Arab nationalist and patriot, al-Waleed’s father, issued a statement to the effect that the Gulf countries should reach an agreement with Tehran. In addition, the Iranian ambassador to Riyadh said that the two countries were getting closer to agreeing to have an inter-faith conference (a real one this time) between the ulamas of both countries. (These two openings are likely choreographed by Saudi intelligene with the approval of the harmful idiots.)

(Iran, alert as hell, will only seemingly soften up thanks to like initiatives. The Iranian ruling elite is a realist elite – which we once were -- under no one’s thumb -- which we never were. And therefore it’ll continue to be an alert elite as to what is genuine and what is a ruse/trap set up for it by the symbiotic alliance of the Israelis and the harmful idiots, with the Saudi ruling elite kissing ass, while looking for mirrors. Iran likely knows whether Israeli troops are participating -- highly probable -- in the maneuvers at Tabuk; it’s to be assumed. But, too, Islamists likely will confirm it to the Iranians when the Egyptian and Saudi troops tell their families about the Israelis. In short, Iran has to impose itself on the Saudi ruling elite. It cannot trust that caste.)

But, in truth, what’s Iran’s best secret weapon in its competition with Israel over closeness to Saudi Arabia?

THOSE DARK, LIMPID PERSIAN EYES

The answer: reproductive access and mass reproductive/genetic diversification.
(Humor me.)

As the financial wherewithal of the Kingdom’s middle class diminishes, Iran should become a more affordable and fun place to visit -- to spend vacation time, as had been the case before oil revenues had peaked. It should be less expensive than Malaysia and Indonesia. Mountains and coast are available for the tourist. A gorgeous country by any measure, all travel literature agree. And Muslim, to boot.

When a very young foreign student, we were asked by the best Foreign Student Office in the nation (at SUNY/Buffalo) to accept a host family in the Buffalo area. I tried it once and once only. My host family was a judge and his wife, relatively old. I got there and asked so many questions about their daughters and grand-daughters. Where were they? They were all over the country. Other older people dropped in on us to check out the foreign student. But I, seeing no young women, turned down that generous and well-meaning couple’s repeated later invites. I wanted reproductive access, not food or clothing or trips to the couple’s house on a lake in Canada. Or friendship with a judge. The campus provided assured reproductive access. The host family didn't. Case closed.

The Iranian government sooner or later should start a version of the “host family” program for Saudi tourists. And Muhammad, the young Saudi who aches for reproductive access, will meet Zainab, the dead-gorgeous young daughter of the Persian family hosting him and his parents. The Iranian ulamas would issue a fatwa that converting to Sunnism can be left up to the young couple after they marry. (That should put to rest the scare tactic being used by the harmful idiots and the Saudi ruling elite that Iran is out to convert the Saudis and all Arabs to Shiism.) Muhammad can either convert to Shiism, or more likely Zainab will convert to Sunnism, since the young married couple should be heading back to Saudi Arabia. When Muhammad’s male friends see Zainab’s black limpid eyes, highlighted with kohl, and the contours of her little body in the black gellaba – trust me, you can see the sexy contours of her gorgeous body – and when they hear Muhammad’s report, they will urge their parents to take them to Iran and connect with a Persian host family. (They won’t tell them why. They’ll tell them it's to learn about the influence the Arabs had on Persian culture. It works with parents. Anything for education.)

(I’m not talking about “pleasure marriages,” the Iranians’ version of our non-married serial monogamy relationships.)

Saudi nuclear and extended families should be heading in droves to Iran. The daughters of these, some of them are getting "old" in a society that doesn’t forgive non-marriage, will be attracted to the host family’s son, Ali – slender, with dark hair. He would be the embodiment of the healthy genetic diversification so many women look for. Beats marrying the young Saudi woman’s cousin – a patterns that’s proving deadly in the Kingdom. (I’ve seen it on planes; it’s pitiful.) Ali and his Saudi bride likely will remain in Iran, since I suspect Saudi law wouldn’t grant citizenship to the husband of a Saudi woman. Leila, the Saudi woman who married the Persian Ali, will too remain in Iran. Saudi-Iranian grandchildren aplenty.


Incrementally a bridge forms over the Persarab Gulf -- of families crossing both ways, but mostly to Iran to enjoy the affordable natural diversity of that country, so absent in arid Saudi Arabia. More importantly: to visit family and grandchildren. Can anyone beat that?

Israel stands no chance in this competition. All it has are Bandar, possibly Turki, a motley of harmful idiot assets, and, ever since it has sent the signal that it's seeking an alliance with Israel and to dump the Palestinian Arabs -- likely many, many spies and informants -- Saudi, Arab, and non-Arab ex-pat. If it's good for the goose (priinces seeking Israel's approval), it's good for the gander (the many who now believe getting recruited by Israel is acceptable.)

Happy Thanksgiving.

IRAN'S SECRET (AND DEVASTATING) WEAPON

Coming soon. (And no, it's not nuclear.)

FLASHBACK: MARCH 2008 – U.S.-ISRAELI TROOPS TO THE KINGDOM

draft

INTRODUCTION

The non-Saudi funded Arab press, perhaps inspired by this blog, had improved on this blog’s recent treatment of the “inter-faith” conference. A sham, had said this blog about the conference. A way for the Kingdom’s ruling elite, under the thumb of the harmful idiots (the stress here is on IDIOTS), to normalize relations with the idiots' Israel. To go over the heads of the Palestinian Arabs (state and reparations), the Lebanese Arabs (reparations) and the Syrian Arabs (territory.) That non-Saudi-owned-or-funded-press stopped at this: the "inter-faith" conference as an effort to normalize relations with Israel and, to a lesser extent, as an effort to re-align the Arab Islamic nation in an Israeli-led Arab block against Iran.

I leafed back into this blog. I uncovered that in March of this year my analysis (with Zein al-Irban -- a pseudonym) in a post titled “The Defeat of Saudi Arabia –and the Kingdom Prepares its Populace for Christian Troops," had said the following:


MARH 2008

3. DEALING WITH DEFEAT: PREPARING THE SAUDI PUBLIC FOR CHRISTIAN-JEWISH TROOPS IN THE [SAUDI] KINGDOM

In an extremely awkward attempt at aligning Saudi Arabia’s public with the West, including Israel, King Abdallah on or about March 25 [2008], called for conferences for dialogue among Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. Okay, what’s this all about?

The king said that he had the approval of the Kingdom’s ulamas for his call. (These ulamas are paid by the government and their ranks since September 2001 have gone through a thorough vetting.) Now, the co-author -- the editor -- ['d] being originally from Lebanon, he can tell you with absolute certainty that even as children they['d] poked fun at these conferences among leaders of Lebanon’s sects. They perceived these “dialogues” to be full of lies, play-acting, and hypocrisy. Still, what’s the king trying to do?

The absurd announcement came soon after Bald Samson’s visit to the Kingdom. [ . . .] Bald Samson is eminently impatient. [. . .] Bald Samson wants an outright and full war on Iran and is preparing the way for it. Not that it’ll happen during his watch. But he is certain that McCain will be elected President and he wants to pave the way [for McCain] for that war. The Kingdom’s territory [likely] will be needed for the full-scale war.

Viewed from a Saudi perspective and not from that of Bald Samson, this call, as the other above two policies [see entire March 30 post: “The Defeat of Saudi Arabia...”] ... The king’s advisers are trying their best to open the Saudi populace to the idea that the Saudi government should eventually need a lot of U.S. and other Western troops in the Kingdom to defend it against a putative Iranian attack -- read: a McCain-Lieberman [US Senator Lieberman being the Israel lobby's forward raider for the war Israel wants the harmful idiots to wage on Iran] declaration of war on Iran. That, even short of a full war, the Kingdom needs to open up to the West [key: Israel] since its security should be coming from that direction. [The Kingdom had always been a Western principality, though its ruling elite had always tried to portray it otherwise before the Muslim and Arab Streets.] This is especially true when one considers that Saudi leaders are reluctant to build a modern army lest that army stages a coup against the royals.

This interpretation becomes all the more compelling when one considers that, on or about March 28, Shaykh Saleh Aal al-Shaykh, [the] Saudi Minister of Islamic Affairs, warned Saudi Imams (“Du3at”) that they would be facing “isolation and siege” if they refused to open up to modernity by “falling behind in meeting the [Christian and Shia, but mostly Shia -- remember the “Arab identity”] competition, global, in hunting for hearts and minds. “ (My translation.)

In other words: Let’s see if we can change you fast enough for the arrival onto the Kingdom’s territory of the Christian troops and (possibly) their Israeli Jewish advisers. The scare tactic: If we can’t get you ready, these Shias of ours will take over and many a Sunni will convert to Shiism.

...

WAITING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA : A REFORMULATION

1. I can’t imagine the alert Iranian government not having evolved a strategy on dealing with the (SOFA) Treaty. A strategy, I’m certain, exists and is always evolving. And that strategy includes the scenario of levels of confrontation, by proxy and directly with the harmful idiots and their Israelis.

2. For now, however, that government’s bottom line is to wait on Mr. Obama -- to wait for January 21 of 2009. That wait supersedes Iran’s evolving strategy, and doesn’t supplant it. More correctly, as a wait, it’s part and parcel of the evolving strategy, isn’t it?

3. Depending on how the new President handles differences with Iran, Iraq could sink back into chaos and the new administration would have to face the issue of whether or not to war with Iran -- directly. Going to war wouldn’t be a palatable decision in the midst of bankruptcy, would it? After all, going to war (started as an Israel-centered oil grab, turned into a war, then now into an idiotic attempt at balancing Iranian power) was one major reason for bankruptcy, wasn’t it?

4. An obvious bottom line for Iran is one where Iran couldn’t be expected to accept tens of U.S. bases in Iraq, restraints or no restraints, promises or no promises. The Iranians should be expected to know, shouldn’t they, since they’re not idiots, that once out of bankruptcy the harmful idiots might just be all too happy to war with Iran. And they’d have the bases in Iraq to to help them. Might as well accept Israeli bases in Iraq, financed by the Saudis.


5. This Iranian bottom line is especially well-grounded since Islamic Iran doesn’t have a lobby or a well-organized diaspora in the land of the harmful idiots. In contrast, Israel does; and I suspect so do the Saudis through their rental of Israel's diaspora, their alliance with the Israelis and, I suspect, likely rent payments to Israel to put that diaspora to work on behalf of joint Saudi-Israeli projects. (Based on only one encounter, I suspect that Saad al-Hariri, a Saudi intelligence man for all practical purpose, is spending money to develop a Lebanese-American lobby in the land of the harmful idiots, one that’s in tune with Saudi intelligence’s wishes, and (based on the one encounter) allied to the Israel lobby.)

6. In this context of near-absolute non-acceptance of U.S./Israeli (and Turkish) bases in Iraq, Iran should be expected to always be preparing for eventual war with the harmful idiots and their beloved Israelis. Iran would have to account for the distinct possibility that President Obama could lend his ear to a version of the harmful idiots who had entrapped us in Iraq on Israel-centered suspect ideas.

7. As tough towards Iran as the military wants Mr. Obama, the new President’s got more serious – even dire – domestic issues to confront. Direct war with Iran would be a truly unwelcome event that would sink the country (ours) deeper into financial chaos. To be fully pessimistic: President Obama might take the middle course and tighten the screws of sanctions on Iran. If he does, he should know (assuming he has non-idiot-harmful advisers) that Iran would have no choice but to retaliate.

8. Courage, and decision-making that is independent of the forces that entrapped us in Iraq – “change” – I submit, should be the course for Mr. Obama.

. . .

(But remember: plus ca change... Oh well.)

FROM TEHRAN: ALI AL-HAJ YUSEF

first draft

Ali al-Haj Yusef is as-Safir 's reporter in Tehran. Here’s a summary of his article which appeared on 11/21/08, titled” “Tehran Between as-Sadr’s Rejection and Maliki’s Excitement About the [SOFA] Treaty.”

Yusef says that Tehran has not formulated a clear official position on the Treaty. In the absence of an official stance, Yusef says, there have evolved essentially two points of views about what had in fact taken place.

One such point of view stresses that the “Iraqi negotiator” had been able over eight months to competently “empty the Treaty of its content.” Here’s more:

“The Treaty restricts the movement of the American occupation forces in Iraq through the imposition of Iraqi legal jurisdiction on the American soldiers, and the banning of raids [by these troops] without Iraqi judicial permission, and the restriction over the freedom of these troops in conducting operations against neighboring countries through assurances that Washington has presented in this area.”

Those holding on to this positive view of the Treaty stress that Baghdad had been able to impose a time certain for the withdrawal of the occupation forces and not have this withdrawal be tied to developments on the ground. Too, say these, the Iraqi government has succeeded in picking June of 2009 as the date by which the American forces would have to withdraw from the cities to military bases.

These people -- those who see Maliki’s government as having succeeded in its negotiations with the Americans -- point to the success of that government in dodging November 4 as the deadline by which the Bush Administration had wanted the Treaty signed. That deadline had been hoped for by that Administration to influence the presidential elections. These optimists (my word) point to the fact that Iran had stood behind this maneuver of (evading November 4) to affirm Tehran’s role as an influential player in Iraqi politics.

The second point of view, though understanding of Maliki’s position, sees the assurances about restraints on attacks on neighboring countries by American troops as empty and weak. Too, these realists (my word) see problems in the application of Iraqi law on U.S. soldiers when defining whether these were “on duty” or “off.” These realists point to extensive construction of bases by the occupation forces which indicates their intent to stay beyond 2011.

These realists were surprised when the Maliki government gave the occupying Americans so much time to withdraw. That the Maliki government should’ve stuck to President-elect Obama’s promise to withdraw the troops within 16 months.

Yusef asserts that neither perspective can be said to typify an official position of the Iranian government. It seems, he says, that this government intends on running the Iraqi show with calm. The Iranian government seems to be torn between Maliki and Sadr, not wanting to alienate either. He notes that when watching official television one can see that the Iranian government is trying to please both parties. It’s giving both factions (Maliki and Sadr) plenty of air time.

* * * *

SaudiPolitics’ bottom line: Iran is waiting on Mr. Obama.

I can’t imagine the alert Iranian government not having evolved a strategy on dealing with the Treaty. For now, that government’s bottom line is to wait on Mr. Obama -- to wait for January 21 of 2009. Depending on how the new President handles differences with Iran, Iraq could sink back into chaos and the new administration would have to face the issue of whether or not to war with Iran --directly. That wouldn’t be a palatable decision in the midst of bankruptcy, would it? For the bottom line is one where Iran couldn’t be expected to accept tens of U.S. bases in Iraq, restraints or no restraints, promises or no promises. (The Iranians know that once out of bankruptcy, even though it could take years, the harmful idiots might just be all too happy to war with Iran. And they’d have the bases to help them.) That would be tantamount to accepting Israeli bases there. As tough towards Iran as the military wants Mr. Obama, the new President’s got more serious – even dire – domestic issues to confront. Direct war with Iran would be a truly unwelcome event that should sink the country (ours) yet deeper into financial chaos. Courage and independent decision-making ("change") is a must.

IRAN WAITS FOR MR. OBAMA

rough first draft

The prior post revealed a relatively tame and soft Iranian stance towards the signing of SOFA by the Shia government of Iraq and the harmful idiot occupation forces. That Iran toughened its stance a tad on cue from Syria. Still, this newsletter had concluded that the Iranian stance, even when revised to seemingly accommodate Syria, was nonetheless soft.

MANUCHEHR MUTAKI WAITS FOR MR. OBAMA

Manuchehr Mutaki, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recently shed light on Iran’s relative softness towards the spread of U.S. bases in neighboring Iraq in accordance with SOFA. He seemed to be giving due importance to the Obama Administration’s current statements, and therefore acting on cue from that administration. But, at the same time, he seemed to be stressing that the true test will be that administration’s “statements and positions after the 21st of January [of next year] [not the present statements and positions.]” (My emphasis -- My translation from Arabic.) He seemed to be saying that President-elect Obama has asked for time, and time Iran will give him.

ONLY AN ARAB IRAQ SO IMPULSIVELY WOULD FALL FOR HARMFUL IDIOT/KUWAITI TRAPS AND RUSES

As nearly always with Iranian statements, Mutaki duplicates the same sense of alertness to danger, traps, and ruses. “We need to be patient,” he said, “ and we need to work with a higher level of precision and study.” (My translation from Arabic.)

HINTS

second draft.

I had been surprised by the tame Iranian response, even congratulatory of the Maliki government, towards the agreement signed by that government with the harmful idiot occupation authorities. In contrast, Syria had been clear about its opposition. And perhaps Syria’s clarity explains Iran’s recent (albeit still relatively soft) volte-face. Choreographed? Iran’s response went from tame and congratulatory to one where it dispatched displeasure, and with that clear hints to the Iraqi Parliament of at least two specific objections.

The new Iranian position was enunciated by Ali Larijani on two occasions. Larijani gave the following two hints to the Iraqi parliament:

1 -- that the duration of occupation conceded to the harmful idiots in the agreement (up to the end of 2011) was too long; and

2 -- that there’s confusion about the jurisdiction over occupation troops by the Iraqi government, and that this confusion should result in problems in the future.

Larijani referred to the “fact” that the Iraqi people were "conscious" and “alert.” (My translation from Arabic.) In tandem with one Iranian editorial I read (Nuaimi's), this could be a reference to the need to keep an eye open to the likely ruses which the Axis of Occupation and New Colonialism (the harmful idiots and their Israel) would be setting up for the Islamic Republic, via Iraq.

Larijani, on a second occasion, from Qum, ripped into the Saudi ruling elite’s (my words) process of normalizing relations with Israel using the idiotic ruse (my words) of the “inter-faith” conference. He seemed to be shaming them for having stood behind Israel in the July 2006 "New Middle East" (the words of the September 11Queen) mass murder assault on Lebanon, and their outright hugging of Israel at the "inter-faith" conference.

PLAYING BOTH ENDS OF THE FIELD -- UNTIL SUCH TIME . . .

But paralleling Larijani’s criticism was an announcement by the Iranian Ambassador to Riyadh in which he said that a conference among the ulamas of both countries was in the offing. In other words, the Saudi ruling elite is now playing both ends of the field: the end of the Axis of Occupation and New Colonialism (the harmful idiots and their Israel) and the end of the Axis of Resistance to the Axis of Occupation and New Colonialism (Iran, Syria, Hamas, and the Arab Street.) The latter game, I'm confident, is only a facade until such time when the harmful idiots and their Israel are back on their feet -- are out of the financial disaster their war-without-taxation (or, more precisely, in concert with a huge tax cut!) had in part set off. Hence, likely, Larijani's reference to the need for "alertness."

No one any longer's gonna fall into the trap, and for the ruses, set up by Kuwait and the harmful idiots for Arab Iraq, the same trap in which we have fallen.

RENT-A-DIASPORA: AN OPERETTA

By popular demand (meaning two people), here it is, again:


(Setting:

Here’s a little operetta to commemorate the occasion of the “inter-faith” conference. That’s the conference sponsored by the Saudi ruling elite, allied to the Israel lobby in the land of the harmful idiots, to normalize relations with Israel on the back of the Palestinian Arabs , the Lebanese Arabs, and the Syrian Arabs. “Fuck them,” says the Saudi ruling elite; “we have oodles of money; so we don’t care.”)

Imagine if you will King Abdallah (“Abboudi” in cute Arabic) sitting in Shimon Perez’s (“Shimone” in cute Hebrew?) lap:



“Shimone, Israel is my love.”

“Abboudi, let’s release the doves.”

“Shimone, my sweetie, we need your diaspora.”

“Abboudi, my life, our diaspora’s Iran’s bora bora
It’ll get the harmful idiots into the imbroglio-ra
To build the pliant Persia of tomorrow
A friend of Isghrael–lle
Accepting of your al-Saud royal aura
And Wahhabi interpretations of Qoraanic Sura.”


“Shimone, my doll
We’ve made the one billion dollar transfer for your diaspora’s s e r v i c e s.”

“A b b o u d i! our government has sent you a receipt
Using the Egyptian d e r v i s h e s
We shall pass your generous donation
Through businessmen who are Jewish
To our diaspora’s organizaaaa--tions
So that they can mobilize the now bankrupt and skeptical nation --
To lobby the idiots-harmful men of rubbish
To wage war on Persia.

“Together my Abboudi
we shall create pliant slaves
Of Iran’s Nejadis
Accepting of Israel’s superiority
As a Jewish “biladi” [Arabic, liberally, for “country”]
In the sea of Sunni hordes
Against who the idiots-harmful shall protect you
And us–ssssss!
O dear royal allies of Israel
Sunnis of Sunnis
Reactionaries without a fuss–ssss.”


“S h i m o n e, my pork-free baloney,
Oh how I love ya!”

“Abboudi, your love I so–ooo treasure
But money is needed
For good measure
To our diaspora to transfer
Via our traders
To give to the Jewish Forward raiders
So that AIPAC and multiple un-registered others
Move the idiots-harmful to remain involved
Silencing the troops’ anti-war mothers
So that we may wipe out Hezbollah and the Shias
And that Persian thorn
Who endangers your bi3–aaaaaah [(royal) allegiance.]


“We’re in it together, my sweetest Abboudi
To put them all in their place:
The Alawites,
The Baaaaath
The Sunni hordes,
Khamas,
Islamic Jihad
And the inveterate Shia sla-aaaves.


“Send more money
Or else risk taking a bath
In our vigilant d i a s p o r a ’s wrath
(Remember the Defense Policy Board?)
So do the math
And you’ll find that Isghraaiiill and its diaspora
Are your best bet as royal flora
Living in golden palaces
...

Alas-es!”

RENT-A-DIASPORA: SAUDI ARABIA RENTS ISRAEL’S AMERICAN DIASPORA

rough first and poetic draft.


I think this blog was first to highlight the importance to the Saudi ruling elite of not upsetting the Israel lobby in the United States, and to uncover the fact that the inter-faith conference at the U.N. really was a sham -- a way for the Saudi rulers to hobnob with the Israeli without accusations of treason by the Saudi public/opposition and the Arab Street. (The non-Saudi funded Arab press scurried afterwards to adopt this newsletter’s analysis, sometimes making the case even better.)

Now I’m going further. (I began the process of pushing the analytical envelope in the last two posts.) I’m now suspecting that the Saudi ruling elite has adopted the hilariously stupid idea of buying out (with MONEY!) a diaspora, the Jewish, in the United States. Yes Virginia. I would be a fool as an analyst if I didn’t think that the huge amounts of oil money surplus this elite now controls isn’t producing absurdly idiotic ideas, especially that this elite has gone through a series of proxy defeats and direct failures -- Lebanon in May, Mecca Accord, Israel’s proxy failed summer of 2006 carpet bombing of Lebanese civilians, failure of repeated bluffs directly or through Egypt to weaken Syria. The more defeats and discovery of limits to its financial power, the further along this elite goes in adopting (dangerously) idiotic ideas.

* * * * * * *

Here’s a little operetta to commemorate the occasion of the “inter-faith” conference.

Imagine if you will King Abdallah sitting in Shimon Perez’s lap:


OPERETTA!

“Shimone [Hebrew cute for Shimon?] Israel is my love.”

“Abboudi [Arabic cute for Abdallah] let’s release the doves.”

“Shimone, my sweetie, we need your diaspora.”

“Abboudi, my life, our diaspora’s Iran’s bora bora
It’ll get the harmful idiots into the imbroglio-ra
To build the pliant Persia of tomorrow
A friend of Israel
Accepting of your al-Saud royal aura
And Wahabi interpretations of Qoranic Suras.”


“Shimone, my doll
We’ve made the one billion dollar transfer for your diaspora’s services.”

“Abboudi, our government a receipt has sent you
Using the Egyptian dervishes
We shall pass your generous donation
Through businessmen who are Jewish
To our diaspora’s organizations
So that they can mobilize the bankrupt and skeptical nation
To lobby the idiots-harmful men of rubbish
To wage war on Persia.

Together we shall create pliant slaves
Of Iran’s Nejadis
Accepting of Israel’s superiority
As a Jewish “biladi” [Arabic, liberally, for “country”]
In the sea of Sunni hordes
Against who the idiots-harmful shall protect you
And us!
O dear royal allies of Israel
Sunnis of Sunnis
Reactionaries without a fuss.”


“Shimone, baloney, oh how I love ya!”

“Abboudi, your love I treasure
But money is needed
For good measure
To our diaspora to transfer
Via our traders
To give to the Jewish Forward raiders
So that AIPAC and multiple un-registered others
Move the bankrupt idiots-harmful to remain involved
Silencing the troops’ anti-war mothers
So that we may wipe out Hezbollah and the Shias
And that Persian thorn
Who endangers your bi3ah [ (royal) allegiance.]


“We’re in it together, Abboudi
To put them all in their place:
The Alawites,
The Sunni hordes,
Hamas,
And the inveterate Shia slaves.


“Send more money
Or else risk taking a bath
In our diaspora’s wrath
(Remember the Defense Policy Board?)
So do the math
And you’ll find that Israel and its diaspora
Are your best bet as royal flora
Living in golden palaces
...


Alas-es!”

SAUDI ARABIA DRAWS CLOSE TO THE ISRAEL LOBBY: A SUMMARY

SECOND draft


The November 4 post beats around the bush, I admit. A friend read it and commented that I needed to put in in "plain English." Here it is:

1. ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA WANT U.S. TROOPS TO STAY IN IRAQ.

Both the governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia want U.S. troops to stay permanently in Iraq, or until such time when they can change the government in Iran. The Saudi ruling elite is eminently reluctant to build a modern army to balance Iranian power. One important reason for that elite's reluctance is the concern that the officer corps of a professional army would stage a coup and change the royal extended-family form of government.

2. ISRAEL CANNOT BALANCE IRANIAN POWER.

Israel cannot balance Iranian power because the expanse separating it from Iran is full of people who detest Israel, with good colonialist reasons. But Israel is concerned that an American pull out from Iraq would strengthen Iran even further. With that, Hamas and other groups allied to Iran would too be strengthened. Israel would then have to withdraw from all Arab lands. God forbid. It doesn't want to. It fears that shedding colonialism would shed its raison d'etre.

3. U.S. PROTECTING A SUPERIORITY COMPLEX AND SPECIAL PRIVILEGES.

The governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia therefore are on the same wavelength when it comes to wanting U.S. troops to remain in Iraq. Both countries would perceive these troops as their protector. To be precise: U.S. troops would be protecting the superiority complex ("Jewish identity") of Israel and the privileges of the Saudi royal elite.

4. A TRIPWIRE IS ALL THAT'S NEEDED.

The U.S. can withdraw the troops to al-Adid in Qatar, to Kuwait, to Bahrain, to the U.A.E., and to Oman. But U.S. troops likely wouldn't be welcome in Saudi Arabia since the population of the Kingdom would rather die than see Israel's sponsor spread crusader forces on their land. Still, the U.S. can balance Iran's power from the territory of the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). A trip wire likely would be sufficent, anyway.

5. SAUDI ARABIA TO DIVIDE THE SHIA REALM.

But the Saudi ruling elite is worried about something else. It is worried that the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq would keep the Shia realm (both Iranian and Arab) intact. With that, the Arab Shias inhabiting the length of the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, could be emboldened politically. Hence the perceived need for THE U.S. troops to stay until such time that Saudi/Jordanian/harmful idiot efforts to divide the Shias bear fruit, and until the Iranian government is changed and a pro-American government is put in place.

Current attempts by Saudi Arabia (with the cooperation I would think of the harmful idiots) is to widen and exacerbate the divide within the Shia realm between the two Marja3iyyahs (religious reference schools): the one in Iran's Qum (Persian) and the one in Iraq's Najaf (Arab.) Saad al-Hariri's visit to Ayatollah Sistani a couple of months ago smacked of that attempt. It's possible that Sistani himself, though born in Iran, would want to break the ties that bind to Qum and the Iranians since his marja3iyyah is in Najaf not in Qum. (By now he's Arab enough, you would think, after decades of residency in Najaf.) But he wouldn't want that at the cost of in-fighting within the wider Shia realm or the Arab Shia realm. He's aware that Iran can unleash Sadr and other ayatollahs (e.g., Baghdadi) and split the Arab Shia realm -- something Sistani should dread. In other words, splitting the Shia realm likely is yet another reactionary hope springing eternal. But it could become an Iranian strategy, too. Best solution for all Shias: keep things calm and cool. We're the winners of the invasion by the harmful idiots. Let's not spoil it. True, the Saudis will fund attempts to get us Shias to retaliate againt Sunnis or against each other. (See "How to Keep the Harmful Idiots in Iraq: A Page Out of the Play Book of Saudi Initelligence.") The purpose would be to create reasons for the harmful idiots to present to the new American President about the need to keep troops in Iraq. But the Iranians should be expected to retaliate against the Saudi proxies in Lebanon. That should chill them.

(Note: The Iranians are unlikely to retaliate inside the Kingdom lest they lose their popularity among the Saudis for being the balancer of harmful idiot-Israeli power and friends of the Palestinian people.)

6. EVIDENCE CLOSE TO HOME.

I myself have been monitored by the Israel lobby and members of the Lebanese Forces (who, during the Lebanese civil war, had begun cooperation with Israel and some likely still are informants for that state.) I think that the monitoring was meant to pass the information on to Saudi intelligence and score points for the Israel lobby with that intelligence service. (For the novice: governments such as that of the Kingdom's are nervous about any publication that talks about them. They think another government is behind that publication. They would be the last to understand that someone would issue a newsletter because of concern about his own American government messing up other people's lives -- as it did the Lebanese and later the Iraqi -- by having a bunch of bureaucrats and ideologues miscalculate. Or messing up American lives by -- at a minimum -- bankrupting us.)

7. SAUDI ARABIA IN SEARCH OF AN ALLIED AND POWERFUL CONSTITUENCY TO LOBBY FOR U.S. TROOPS TO REMAIN IN IRAQ: LET'S TRY THE ISRAEL LOBBY AND THE AMERICAN JEWISH COMMUNITY.


Where things stand now is that Saudi Arabia itself is opening to the Israel lobby. Someone (I suspect the harmful idiots) must've given Saudi intelligence the idea that the Kingdom (and Israel) would need a powerful constituency in the U.S. to lobby for U.S. troops to remain in Iraq. And that party has convinced the Saudi ruling elite that the constituency that's most reliable for that kind of work is the forever hyper-mobilized-on-behalf-of-Israel Jewish community. Hence the proposed inter-faith conference, sponsored by Saudi Arabia, to be held in New York City. Yes, Melvina: we're now to welcome the SECTS into our realm from societies where religion is politics. (As if we hadn't had enough with "God Bless" Crusader and "Rescue of darling protectorate" Bald Samson.) Correct me if I'm wrong: but isn't that city where a large number of the Jewish community resides? Is the Israel lobby going to instruct its people there to "be nice?"

Sophomoric, I know, but that's what the Saudi ruling elite and the Israel lobby are up to. They're allies, an alliance brokered by the harmful idiots -- the same ones who entrapped Arab Iraq into invading Kuwait, only to find us entrapped and bankrupt. But what do they care? They're bureacurats with secure pension plans. Unlike us mortal beings who have to struggle to secure what looks like a shitty retirement, if ever.

SAUDI ARABIA DRAWS CLOSE TO THE ISRAEL LOBBY

third and straight-shooting rough draft

UPDATED 10/5/08 (I mean the "straight-shooting." Read on if you have the courage to shed your erratic wishful thinking.)

And I've retraced the steps of [my] youth and its roses
Walking instead on thorn

Ahmad Shawqi. (My traslation)

In “No shame.” I built on the prominent display by the Saudi daily al-Riyadh of a thinly-veiled adaptation of an anti-Syria article in an Israeli newspaper. The Israeli article likely was part of a campaign of misinformation by the Axis of Conquest and New Colonialism -- the harmful idiots and Israel. Significantly, that article added to a tentative conclusion long reached by this newsletter that the Saudi ruling elite had been drawing closer to the Israeli.

This newsletter has always maintained that the Saudi ruling elite can’t afford to alienate the Israel lobby in the United States, if only because that lobby can launch one campaign after another against that elite. The Defense Policy Board’s (not-so-indirect) threat to unseat the royal family and break up the kingdom, I strongly suspect, has been etched in the brain of that elite for a generation. In the spirit of comprehensiveness, it's likely that the Saudi ruling elite has a more pressing reason to open up to the Israel lobby (and to hold an inter-faith conference -- see below.) The Saudi ruling elite is searching for an American constituency (the Jewish) that would support continued U.S. military presence in Iraq. For the novice: Saudi Arabia doesn't have a competent army. Iraq once defended it against Iran. Now the Saudi ruling elite is looking to use the U.S. armed forces to balance Iranian power. The Israel lobby and Israel's diaspora are its hope for keeping U.S. troops in Iraq.

Drawing closer to Israel could be seen in yet another more recent and seemingly run-of-the-mill incident. The Saudi al-Hayat (it really isn’t Lebanese; it’s Saudi) on its website featured on November 2 an opinion piece by a “Ben Fishman.” The article's heading was prominently displayed, the first of three, placed on top of the “Special [to al-Hayat]” column. Clicking the article's heading, one finds out that “special” does in fact refer to “special[ to al-Hayat].” Meaning, either the Saudi al-Hayat had solicited Mr. Fishman for the article or that Mr. Fishman had sent it especially for al-Hayat. Mr. Fishman was described as a “researcher specializing in the affairs of the Middle East at the Washington Center for Near East Policy.” (Al-Hayat had been on an anti-Syria campaign for a good while now. As with other Saudi newspapers, and Arab newspapers funded by Saudi intelligence or the Saudi government, and the satellite television station, al-Arabiyya, these media outlets are expected to be at the disposition of Saudi intelligence as propaganda outlets and policy tools. In that sense, they're no different from the Syrian or Egyptian media outlets.)

Within a week now we have two seemingly run-of-the-mill incidents : the prominently- displayed heading given the adaptation of the Israeli article in al-Riyadh -- see “No Shame” -- and the equally prominently-displayed heading given the Washington Center’s opinion piece in al-Hayat.

Is this evidence that the Saudi ruling elite is now in full alliance with Israel? Or is it that the Saudi ruling elite is sending the Iranian and Syrian a message to return the Saudi proxies to power in Lebanon, or risk Saudi Arabia drawing yet closer to Israel? Or is the Saudi ruling elite paying off/encouraging the Israeli counterpart now that Israel has announced its acceptance of the Saudi peace initiative? Or is the Saudi ruling elite keeping the carrots flowing to Israel and its people in the U.S. to ward off campaigns against it in the United States by the same people -- to tame the Israel lobby, so to speak?

BY WAY OF ANSWERS

First: It’s doubtful that these run-of-the-mill incidents are indication that Saudi Arabia is now allied to Israel. I think likely there’s a decent level of cooperation at the intelligence level, directly and through Jordan and Egypt. Israel is an intelligence fiend. It collects and trades intelligence -- including about this writer. My suspicion is that it passes intelligence on to Saudi Arabia as a lure to show usefulness and for wider relations. It’s doubtful, however, that these mostly one-way exchanges of intelligence will get Israel the wider relations it’s hoping for. But the cost for Israel is low anyway, since its spy and informant network already is established. Worth a try. Still, objectively, there’s seemingly little for Saudi Arabia in the wider relations with Israel than the appeasement of Israel so that Israel would not unleash its people in the U.S. against Saudi Arabia. But viewing the severe financial crisis, and the association between the Israel lobby and the financially disastrous (at a minimum) Iraq adventure/aggression, even the best campaigns by the Israel lobby should go nowhere. There’s always the possibility that the Saudis are misreading the power of Israel and its hyper-mobilized diaspora at this time in American politics. Or the Saudi ruling elite could simply be behind the curve, as it usually is.

Second: It could be that the Saudi ruling elite is sending Iran and Syria a message, a threat really, that these two had better return the Saudi proxies to power in Lebanon or risk an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The issue is whether Iran and Syria would fall for that scheme. Already Syria and Iran have succeeded at putting the Saudi ruling elite in the Israel box, so to speak. Which is not a benefit for that elite vis-a-vis its people -- especially as the oil surplus begins to evaporate.

The coming conference among the sects, organized by the Saudi ruling elite to take place in New York City, is essentially meaningless, though in the end likely harmful to the Saudi ruling elite. (That's their business; but I have to try to be comprehensive.) It is tantamount to that elite shooting itself in the foot. That elite is falling into the very trap which Iran and Syria would've liked to set up for it. Only that it's setting it up for itself, with help from the harmful idiots. I can understand the urge the Saudi elite feels to defuse the Israel lobby efforts against it and to disturb the elite's alliance with the harmful idiots, using silly like conferences for that purpose. I can also understand that, under pressure from the harmful idiots, that Saudi elite sees the conference among the sects as a fig leaf behind which it can hide to initiate direct contact with the Israeli leaders. But the harmful idiots are infamous for miscalculating (e.g., Lebanon, Iraq.) And here, too, they're miscalculating yet again. For neither Israel will come around because of that conference, nor its lobby, because direct contact between the Saudi elite and Israeli leaders is irrelevant. Iran, Syria, and the Palestinians (and I mean Hamas) are the essential players who would be absent. The Saudi ruling elite, though rich, is NOT an essential player. It doesn't even have a competent army of its own and it has lost Iraq's. Not to mention that it recently has been dealt defeat after defeat: 2006 unsuccessful attack by Israeli proxy on Lebanon (Israeli/harmful idiot defeat, really), failure of the Mecca Accord, Saudi Foreign Legion and ambassador scooting out of Beirut in haste in May before the Hezbollah drive, Saudi proxies in Lebanon becoming irrelevant and alive only thanks to Hezbollah smarts, Shia state in Iraq -- notwithstanding Saudi/harmful idiots' attempts to divide the Shias along Najaf-Qum lines -- , Arab Sunnis of Iraq marginalized.)


But for the huge oil money surplus the Kingdom has amassed, and the concomitant legitimacy and time this money has re-bought the ruling elite, that elite would’ve been in deep trouble for drawing closer to Israel. And, consequently, Iran and Syria would’ve achieved a significantly higher level of success vis-a-vis that elite. In short, Saudi Arabia drawing closer to Israel to obtain concessions from Iran and Syria in Lebanon is a bad bluff. Iran should be unwilling to compromise over Lebanon, and not only because Lebanon provides it a front with Israel. Lebanon, too, can become a financial safety valve for the Islamic Republic in case things sour up with Dubai, the current financial lungs to the Republic. In other words, a Shia-led Lebanon with such a long and established banking history and financial know-how could prove godsend for the Islamic Republic should Dubai and the U.A.E. turn into a terror front -- should the harmful idiots in turn succeed at squeezing Iran out of Dubai, forcing Iran to look for unconventional warfare for retribution. It’s like the Mafia: we trusted you with our money...

Lebanon too holds another advantage to the Islamic Republic. Its Shia diaspora is found all over the globe. As when Israel had used those members of the Lebanese Forces who had trained in Israel during the civil war, and as it has used members of the Druze sect and likely still does, so would Iran use the Lebanese Shias and, financially, likely a smattering of Christians and others -- as spies, informants, operatives, bankers, front offices, and so on. Yes, Saudi Arabia is richer than Iran and enjoys a larger accumulated surplus. But Iran has armed forces, guerrillas, seasoned fighters, and a huge following in the Arab World. Many in that World cherish Iran for standing in the face of Israel and the harmful idiots, especially after these had wiped a Sunni-led state off the map. Read the non-Saudi funded Arab press. You don't see much criticism of Iran, do you? Why? Because the Arab intelligentsia and the Street, until further notice, see a strong Iran as the best hope for a Palestinian state and for reparations. Not the silly Saudi ruling elite, always kissing ass with the harmful idiots, and always on its knees. The Arabs only have Hezbollah and Hamas as armies. And these survive thanks to Iran and Syria. Can't let go of these before a Palestinian state is achieved. Not while Israel and the secessionist Kurds are armed to the teeth and the harmful idiots want to keep troops and bases in the heart of the Arab World. All other Arab armies (Egyptian, Iraqi) having vanished.

Third: Yes, likely the Saudi ruling elite may think that the prominent display of an adaptation of an Israeli article in a Saudi daily and the equally prominent display of an opinion piece by Mr. Fishman in the Saudi al-Hayat are helpful if only as symbolic messages to Israel to go forward with the Saudi peace initiative. To go beyond maneuvering and actually withdraw from Arab lands. Does the Saudi ruling elite believe this is either sufficient to move the Israelis forward at a time when the Syrians are negotiating with the Israelis in Turkey or safe enough for that elite to risk the appearance albeit veiled of drawing closer to the Israelis? That elite must’ve assessed that it was safe to risk it -- to publish prominently Israeli misinformation and opinion in its newspapers . The large oil money surplus must’ve provided that elite with the cushion of safety it needed. But will this scheme by the Saudi ruling elite produce the hoped-for results? Will it motivate Israel to start withdrawing? The answer: I don’t think the Saudi ruling elite really cares, one way or the other. Just as Israel likely is maneuvering by announcing acceptance of the Saudi peace initiative –- about which it’s now retreating –- Saudi Arabia likely is too. In the end it's about those who are directly involved: the Israelis and the Palestinians and Syrians. The Saudi ruling elite should stay the hell out of it, lest it sells out these Arabs as it sold out the Arab Sunnis of Iraq and lest it engenders yet new bitterness among the Arab public about Arabs doing in Arabs to please the harmful idiots and their Israelis.

Finally, Saudi Arabia objectively shouldn’t be expected to care about what the Israel lobby can do to it in the United States. Unless, of course, the Saudis are misreading American politics at this time of severe crisis. That lobby is in deep public relations trouble since it’s perceived (though no one dares say it for fear of accusations of anti-Semitism) as having such a close association with the Iraq adventure and the disastrous financial repercussions -- real, direct, or not -- of that adventure on the economic health of the country and the welfare of its people. So many Americans now are considering return to work on an over time basis to make up for their losses. Few care about anything else, Israel lobby campaigns or not.

IMPOLITENESS: MISTREATING THE LESS FORTUNATE

rough first draft

Beirut!
...
I do not emigrate twice
[Nor would I] fall in love with you twice
And I don’t see in the [Mediterranean] more than a sea . . .

Mahmoud Darwish, “Beirut” (My translation.)

WHY NOT GO EAST, YOUNG MAN? WHY NOT ACCEPT MISTREATMENT?

(You can skip this first section. Too much personal stuff.)

Soon after I had completed my Ph.D. I had solid job prospects in Lebanon (the American University of Beirut and the American University College, renamed the Lebanese-American University). Too, through friends, I had decent job prospects at universities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and one job prospect in el-Ain in the United Arab Emirates. I didn’t go to Beirut in good part because Iranian intelligence had the run of that city. Unlike today, that intelligence service had been of a more insecure and aggressive nature, and could see in me me a prize as hostage.

Beirut is safer now. Thanks to the harmful idiots, that intelligence service now has relaxed. Dealing with harmful idiots, it’s found out, is rather easy once you realize that their elephant-like stature is only that. That the elephant is so Israel-anchored that it had shackled its own self down. The Israel-anchoring had so impacted the evolution of its brain, that it shrank. Worse, the Israel-shackled elephant had gone on a course (historic) of defeating progressive, secular, and nationalist forces in the Arab World, the same forces which could’ve been its best friend.

Even when brain-damaged the elephant rampaged its way through Arab Iraq, invaded it, it did it while allied to reactionary Iraqi expats. These had their own agenda, some of which Iranian, which the brain-damaged Israel-anchored elephant couldn’t see. These reactionary entrepreneurs knew to peddle love for Israel to the equally reactionary (Israel-obsessed) Jews, the right wing and the liberal. Now the brain-damaged elephant is paying the price: It’s put itself in the corner with Arab reactionary “allies,” fighting for them and for the “Jewish state.” The sad truth is that these “allies” can’t garner even their own people’s respect let alone that of others. Or raise a competent army. (Mubarak recently sent an Egyptian intelligence delegation to Lebanon. I started to write about the futility of the Egyptian regime and its I-can-be-useful-for-pay moves. Then I stopped. Isn't worth the ink. The non-Arab and non-Islamic Egyptian regime is useless to the harmful idiots. It’s a slave-regime; was so with Sadat and continues to be so. Just pay them and save us all from the illusion that they and their Saudi sponsors can make a significant difference anywhere that matters.) Their own people perceive these allies as traitors, as the Judas who’s delivered fellow Arabs to the Romans -- to the Israelo-American conquerors.

But I had already outgrown Beirut, anyway.

To the Gulf countries -- no, thank you; I wasn’t about to accept the status of a second class citizen. All said: “you go there as an Arab, and you’ll be treated like a parasite.” To be mistreated! I’m not a masochist. Older friends in the know had agreed with me, though a few faulted me for not pursuing the el-Ain option, an exception to the rule, they said. Steve, one of my closest friends then and now, who had brought me to D.C., and our rather sizeable circle then (mostly SUNY people) wanted me to stay. But then the S.O.B. left to New York, and the other S.O.B.s soon followed, migrating all over the country. They left me alone in the District of Celibacy.

My only regret: I love and need the sun. El-Ain would've given me that.

(Caveat: I’ve met many Arabs, Muslim and Christian, who had had a decent experience in the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia. Still, it’s agreed that you get respect there if you’re Western, especially British or American. And not much respect if you’re not.)

SADISTIC, ARE THEY?

The rich Arabs of oil score low on the politeness scale according to one respected Arab newsman. On or about July 30 of this year, Abdel Bari Atwan of al-Quds al-Arabi (based in London) took a harsh view of the treatment given foreign laborers by Kuwaitis and other Gulf Arabs. He had been referring to workers from Bengladesh who had taken to the streets in Kuwait. Earlier, in February, in Bahrain 1300 Indian laborers had demonstrated , and in that month, too, tens of thousands of Indian laborers had demonstrated in Dubai. In Abu Dhabi in early July the authorities had arrested about 3100 Indian workers.

Mr. Atwan went on to remind his readers that Hannibal Qadhafi (Muammar’s son) had been arrested in Switzerland for assaulting a housekeeper at a Geneva hotel. And only days before Mr. Atwan had written his scathing criticism of the culture of the rich Arabs, Belgian authorities had filed charges against seven related to an Emirati Sheik. These had been alleged to have mistreated nine servants of various nationalities, including Arab, who had been attending to the floor the Emiratis were occupying.

Here’s Mr. Atwan:

“I don’t understand this Arab sadism, the treatment of others with such bestiality, especially that our Islamic faith is forgiving and mandates equality and humility... [and] the avoidance of even the appearance of enslaving [others].” (My translation from Arabic.)


PAUL THEROUX

I had forgotten about Mr. Atwan’s commentary, though I had noted it. But just yesterday, as I was reading Paul Theroux’s Ghost Train to the Eastern Star (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2008) I jumped when I read the following:

“Many Germans have second homes here, he said. But mainly it was a resort for Arabs.

“‘Saudis -- they have the money,’ he said. ‘But also Jordanians and Syrians. Their country is too hot -- they have to leave, but they don’t want to go to Europe and America. They know people hate them there. Americans say they’re terrorists. They get double-checked at airports. And they don’t want to be in a country where the women have to remove the veil.’

“‘They wear veils here?’ It seemed odd in a country where Muslim women were gracefully dressed in sarongs and tight-fitting blouses.

...

“‘Lots of Arabs?’

“‘Thousands, many thousands. Big planes, full of families -- women in black, men in suits. Children. They break things at the hotels and they fight when we ask them to pay. And rude when they talk to you.’

...

“‘So what do you think?’
“ ‘I think if you’re a good person, you don’t need religion.’
“ ‘They’ve got a lot of religion.’
“ ‘They pray five times a day, and still they are terrible. So rude!’”

[Theroux at 317.]

*****

I’m old enough to know that this generalized impoliteness is only rarely innate. I’ve amateurishly diagnosed individuals in my practice -- well, only one -- as sado-masochistic. (This is how rare a phenomenon it is.) But a majority in a cultural group? Can’t be. Something else is at work.