ARAB QATAR

r o u g h draft

BACKGROUND

Commenting on Ali Larijani’s statements to the effect that Gaza was important to Iran’s national security (“Arab Opposition: the Post-Gaza Phase, January 1, 2009), I had said that his statements sounded absurd, since I couldn’t fathom how Gaza, without geographic depth, could be relied on strategically. In the same post and in the post after (“Iran to Arab Nationalism, Post-Gaza: Come to Mama,” January 5, 2009), I developed the hypothesis that Gaza’s fall would benefit Iran -- immensely. The Arab Sunni opposition would have nowhere to go but to Iran.


ANOTHER REASON THE ARAB OPPOSITION WOULD HEAD TO IRAN: SAUDI ARABIA IS WORKING HARD TO GIVE ITS ISRAELI ALLY MORE TIME TO ACCOMPLISH ITS MISSION

This hypothesis of mine has become even truer recently. Saudi Arabia, the birth-place of Islam and, as part of the peninsula, the birthplace of the Arabs, is now flaunting its alliance with Israel, its hatred of Hamas, and its callousness towards the suffering of fellow Arabs. (I’m excluding Turki al-Faisal. The more I think about it the more I conclude that his anger was genuine. He’s had it with Bush, with Bandar, and with the Israelis, in spite of the fact that he’s opened up to the Israelis in the past.) The Saudi ruling elite is doing all it can to give its Israeli ally more time to finish Hamas.

ARAB BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS

Arab (Sunni) blood will now be on the hands of Saudi King Abdallah and on the hands of the Saudi ruling elite.

To give its Israeli ally more time to finish Hamas, the Saudi ruling elite is doing all it can to torpedo the efforts by the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Aal Thani, to hold an emergency Arab summit in Doha on Gaza. It’s now all but confirmed that the Saudi ruling elite had been pressuring those Arab governments beholden to it (e.g., the Moroccan King Muhammad VI) not to attend the Doha summit. The idea is to rob Sheikh Hamad of the quorum needed for the all-Arab summit.

The Saudi ruling elite’s newest method to torpedo an all-Arab summit on Gaza is to push along for an alternative summit of Gulf Arab countries, the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

INTIFADHAS NOT GAZA

The Saudi ruling elite’s not-so-hidden rationale is that Hamas is an Iranian tool. (Larijani’s statement’s to that effect weren’t helpful to the Gazans.) It doesn’t matter that the Saudi ruling elite is miscalculating, as was Mr. Larijani, on the alleged strategic importance of Gaza. Truth be told, Gaza and Hamas are supremely unimportant strategically, especially that Gaza has no strategic depth since the Egyptian ruling elite is on the harmful idiots’ payroll. The best weapon for the Palestinians are Intifadhas, and these will happen sooner or later, especially after Gaza.

With the Palestinian opposition going underground, the Intifadhas should gain a deadly edge. They should reach inside Israel and re-ignite the Israeli "transfer" campaign and the concomitant fears of the Jordanian government.

Why after Gaza? Because the Arab opposition, including the Palestinian, would’ve had the time to sober up and go underground, shedding the illusion that democracy can work for them. Algeria and Palestine have shown that such couldn’t be farther from the truth. Not when the backer of Israel and the Saudi regime (and Europe) torpedo any attempt by the Arab opposition to build non-corrupt governments that serve their people.

NO COUNTRY HATES ARABS MORE THAN THE UNITED STATES

The Arab opposition knows that no country hates Arabs more than the United States, the backer of Israel -- as a reactionary base in the heart of the Arab World -- and the pro-Israeli regimes. (The very invasion of Arab Iraq could be said to have been facilitated by American hatred of Arabs.) The Arab opposition knows that this hate is embedded in three pivotal pillars of American politics:

– the diaspora Jewish pillar;

– the Christian Evangelist pillar; and

– the liberal (mostly Jewish) pillar.

(The African-American pillar isn’t involved.)

The Arab opposition knows that Europe is Israeli to the bone.

Where’s that opposition to go? I submit: to Iran.

QATAR AS AN ARAB ALTERNATIVE TO IRAN

Arab Qatar is trying to be a pole for Arabness. Kudos to them. Arab Qatar is trying to show that a small Arab country can place itself under the American strategic security umbrella without quitting on its Arabness. It helps that Qatar sits too far to know that the United States, in three of its most important political pillars, despises Arabs. But what does that matter? Qatar needs the American security umbrella.

The fact that pivotal American political forces and their people (and the wider culture which they actively influence) find Arabs revolting doesn’t obviate Qatar’s need for the American strategic umbrella.

Arab Qatar can allow the Israelis to open a commercial office in Doha, yet be concerned about the Gazans as helpless sheep being massacred by the Israeli war machine -- a machine trying to make up for its defeat in Lebanon by flexing its muscles in helpless Gaza, with the assistance of the United "Arab" Emirates, Egypt, Saudi "Arabia," and the Fateh establishment. (Gaza for Israel is like Grenada was for Ronald Reagan.) But Qatar cannot close that office lest it upsets the three pillars and beget retaliation inside the Arab-hating United States. In contrast, Iran isn’t saddled by that burden. Iran gets its respect inside the United States from its ability as a regional and effective player.

At any rate, Arab Qatar is too small to really be able to monopolize the role of a pole for the Arab opposition. Iran isn’t. In other words, Iran is it for the Arab opposition.

But at least Sheikh Hamad will not have Arab blood on his hands. Saudi King Abdallah and the Saudi royal elite do, and will.