WHO’S BEHIND THE BOMBS IN BAGHDAD?

UPDATED on 4/15/09: important changes in bold print.

ROUGH DRAFT - - notes I had jotted down but am late in posting.


AN ELEPHANT-OF-A-TRIP-WIRE HARDLY VITIATES DESPERATION

Even though the idiots-reluctant are leaving behind an elephant of a trip-wire in Iraq and the region, there are those who seem to want them to stay, in full. That is: at the current level, and even higher. These had hoped to make a come-back using their expertise at fighting Iran.

These, I suspect, were behind the spree of recent bombings directed at Shia civilians in Baghdad. Their main goal was to influence the decision-making of the Obama Administration - - to scare the idiots-reluctant into staying. But other goals were sought after, too. These likely are:

(1) to prove that the Shia State, in its current form , is incapable of protecting civilians - - and therefore is a failed state; as corollaries:

a. that, at a minimum, a new formulation-of-a-state is needed which would bring in non-Iran accepting Arab Sunni; and

b. that this new formulation would never see the light without the continued presence in Iraq of the troops of the idiots-reluctant.

The bombings were meant -

- - as a warning (and an attempt) to re-ignite the Sunni-Shia civil war, at a higher pitch than currently;

- - BUT, MOST IMPORTANTLY: as an attempt, using the threat of intensified civil strife, to influence Mr. Obama’s decision-making - - to keep the idiots-reluctant from withdrawing the troops; and

- - as a threat that the Sahwas would rejoin al-Qaeda which has been known for dispatching suicide bombers against Shia civilians - - to return to a solid Sunni block as good in its resistance as it once haad been, before it had trusted Saudi and Jordanian intelligence and the Diaspora Nationalists.

THE SAHWAS/THE OLD BAATH-TIED-TO-JORDANIAN-INTELLIGENCE

Although car bombings against Shia civilians had been taking place all along, they bumped upward following the arrest by Maliki’s troops of a Sahwa commander in Baghdad. Which tells the following story:

(1) that likely it was the Sahwas aka Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence - - and not the Islamists (al-Qaeda) - - who were behind the bombings. This interpretation rings especially true when one considers that Islamists have suicide-bombings as part of their arsenal, which the Sahwas and the Old Baath mostly don’t.

i. The fear: that if the troops withdraw - - which they’re not, they’re only being thinned out and they’ll be in Kuwait and Qatar, waiting - - then the Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence would have to eat it - - to become accommodating towards the Shia State. That would mean shedding the dream of making a come-back with the help of the idiots-reluctant. The Sahawas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian intelligence had marketed their enmity towards Iran (and their skill at fighting it) to the harmful idiots and to Saudi intelligence . This just seems not to work with the idiots-reluctant (as opposed to the harmful idiots.) But they’re still trying, anyway. (Objectively, again: that ship had sailed; but hope does spring eternal, especially that the harmful idiots, Jordanian intelligence, and Saudi intelligence had stoked that false hope.)

THE RESPONSE

Responding to the attempt by the Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence to stoke the flames of the sectarian civil war, Muqtadha as-Sadr called for a demonstration joining tens of thousands in the heart of Baghadad. That demonstration called on the idiots-reluctant to get the hell out of the country. That was quite a risk as-Sadr had taken, what with car bombs exploding right-and-left. What was he up to?

If I were to take a guess, I think as-Sadr had likely assessed that the chief goal behind the explosions-against-the-Shia-civilians weren’t in their essence to intensify an otherwise low-intensity civil war . The explosion were meant chiefly to scare the idiots-reluctant enough (mostly about a future full of civil wars) for these to abort their plans to withdraw.

As-Sadr needed to send a message to balance that sent by the Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian intelligence. (As opposed to Old Baath-tied-to-Syrian inelligence.) As-Sadr’s message:

We're aware that Jordanian intelligence is tied to the Sahwas/Old Baath, and that both of these work closely together. Too, we're aware that, at a minimum, the CIA keeps up with Jordanian intelligence, if not work closely with it. Accordingly, the three (Jordanian intelligence, Sahwas/Old Baath, and the CIA) can be said to be involved at different levels of activity and/or knowledge in the bombings-against-the-Shia-civilians. So here's our message: you continue on with this - - that is, your CIA doesn't rein in its Jordanians and these their Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian intelligence - - and we shall unleash the waiting-to-happen (with Iran's blessing, if need be) populist movement to get you out-of-the-country with your tail between your legs. In other words, you're playing with fire. It'll be a political movement; but you kill more Shia civilians and it'll be armed, with the connivance of much of the security agencies of the Shia State - - the very ones you helped build. We should be able to turn the very Iraqi Shia State security struture you created against you.



Another part of the mssage: we’re men enough to divert the attention of our public away from armed retaliation against the Sunni by directing their attention to the occupation by the troops of the idiots-reluctant. Surprisingly, as-Sadr’s men and women behaved themselves.

OF FEAR AND DESPERATION

The fear of the Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence (and likely of Jordanian intelligence itself) is that political forces are behaving in accordance with the conclusion that the troops of the idiots-reluctant are departing, wholesale. That the only way to stem the tide of Arab-politics- that-cater-to-Iran’s-concerns is to wage an actual war on Iran - - by U.S. troops. A trip-wire, though elephant-size, wouldn’t do.

Why? Because not only did the harmful diots lose the Iraq war, the Arab regimes which had colluded with them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and Egypt) had lost the war, too - -the non-conventional one, that is. Which is really the one that matters. With the idiots-reluctant clearly not wanting a war with Iran at a time of national bankruptcy, and with the short-sighted Arab regimes not being able to win the non-conventional war (their tool had been and still is to deepen the Sunni-Shia divide to damn Iranian influence - - note Egypt's crackdown on Hezbollah-in-Egypt, alleging that it was planning attacks on Egyptian targets). Arab politics are bound to become more friendly to Tehran. The Saudi ruling elite, as a consequence, would have to strengthen the home front politically - - to enact reforms - - which it dreads.


You can see the repercussions of both failures - - that of the harmful idiots and that of the Arab regimes which had colluded with them in the invasion and occupation of Arab Iraq, to the point of allying themselves with Israel and its diaspora nationalists - - you can see the repercussions of those failures in the Syrian Muslim Brothers, who Saudi Arabia and the harmful idiots likely had funded , quitting the front that once had joined them to Saudi Arabia’s Syrian Sunni dwarf, Abdel-Halim Khaddam. Desperation by the Saudi and Egyptian elite had led them to beg Israel to finish Hamas; Israel couldn’t. But the beastliness and savageness of Israel’s war on Gaza’s population couldn’t but have affected the Syrian Muslim Brothers - - as it had everyone else. Now, another repercussion: even Hamas is refusing to join a government headed by either Abbas or Fayyad - - two harmful idiots’ “assets,” almost certainly, who had colluded with Israel in the savage attack on Gaza.

In short: the Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence is reading the political map in the region and is getting desperate as a result. The Saudis and Jordanians had tricked them into quitting their once-stellar armed resistance to seek an alliance with the harmful idiots. They helped them market their anti-Iran stance to the harmful idiots. The Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian intelligence believed them: that the United States would carry through with a full-scale war on Iran and will put to use their expertise in the subject. It didn’t work. The political map, post-withdrawal, even with an elephant of a trip-wire remaining, looks bad for the Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence.

The Arab Sunni made the mistake of trusting Saudi Arabia and Jordan - - and a U..S. policy forever influenced heavily by Diaspora Nationalists - - be it a Republican or a Democratic Administration. When they quit their well-organized and alert resistance and instead put their trust in the very people who had stabbed them in the back - - the Saudi ruling elite - - the Arab Sunni of Iraq had committed political suicide. With that they put an end to Arab Iraq.


MOSUL

But what about the murder on Friday of five U.S. troops in Mosul? Was it a message, too? And who was sending it? Was it a message from the anti-U.S. Sunni (friendly with Syria) to the Sahwas/Old Baath-tied-to-Jordanian-intelligence (itself tied to the CIA) to cease-and-desist from trying to delay the departure of the occupying troops of the idiots-reluctant? If so, would Mr. Obama need to rein in those? Or was it a tool used by nervous Gulf countries’ intelligence services, with financial sway over the Islamists of Iraq - - their al-Qaeda which kills Arab Shia to fail the Shia State that is friendly with Iran - - to delay that very departure?

U.S. General Odierno, in the aftermath of the killing of the five troops, reacted by saying that like-operations would only delay the departure of U.S. troops from places like Mosul and Baaqouba. Has he fallen into the trap? Would Mr. Obama need to remind him not to bring Mr. Obama himself into that trap, too?