IRAN: HOW TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE RELUCTANT ONES

Second draft.

Please read IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER at the end of this post.

INTRODUCTION

How to negotiate: first the explosions against the Ministries in Baghdad to relay the message to the reluctant ones that their control of Iraq is an illusion. But that’s only one item in the arsenal for negotiations.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Jerusalem Day once again made a statement denying that the Holocaust ever took place. He’s said so much in the past. What’s he up to?

To cut to the chase: he’s, in good part, negotiating; and not with Israel. Israel is eminently insignificant. He’s negotiating with Israel’s sponsors: the reluctant ones. He uses Israel knowing it is key to reaching the brains of the reluctant ones. To his strategists, Israel is part-and-parcel of our national security establishment (not incorrect) and of their psyche.

How could denying the Holocaust be part of a negotiating strategy?

As a given, to state the obvious (at least to me): The Islamic Republic’s strategists couldn’t but be fully cognizant that the Holocaust is a historical fact. So why then deny that it ever took place?

By way of an answer:

The Iranian Islamic strategists know full well that each-and-every Arab zooms in on the fate of the Palestinians. (I’m not talking about the idiots’ Arabs. I’m talking about the Arab public and the alternative elite, the “Arab Street,” - - by far the majority.) By extension, at a time when the reluctant ones have fired up their engine for peace (the George Mitchell mission), the Arab public should be concerned that an idiots’ peace will leave so many behind: the Palestinians outside West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon, and the Joulan Heights. (A prescription for yet more instability - - but that’s not what Mr. Amadinejad is worried about.) Each-and-every Arab, after the dismemberment of Arab Iraq by the harmful idiots, the Israelis and the right-wing and many of the liberals of Israel's American Diaspora, is now superbly attached to Islamic Iran and to its alliance with Arab Syria.

Without Islamic Iran there would be no Palestinian cause left. Without a Palestinian cause, the Arab nation would disintegrate even further. The best illustration of where the Arab Street stands can be found in the writings of Abdel-Bari Atwan. For a good while now, Mr. Atwan has been coming to Syria’s defense, consistently.

All hope to do justice by the Palestinians (both those inside and those outside) relies on Iran and on the alliance of Iran and Arab Syria.

Even Jordan, reputed to be our CIA station within the Arab nation, is worried that Mahmoud Abbas would strike a deal with the Israelis that would ignore the Palestinian refugees in Jordan - - hence, in part, the rapprochement between Jordan’s government and that of Syria. Syria’s steadfastness is suddenly in demand, even by a CIA station! (No, it's unlikely - -though possible - -that our Jordanian CIA station is using the King to help peel Syria away from Iran. That ship's already sailed many times over.)

So why doesn’t Mr. Ahmadinejad limit himself to expressing support for the Palestinian people? Answer: he would then be no different than any other who does that. Why doesn’t he limit himself to condemning Israel for its cold-blooded decimation of Lebanese and Palestinian civilians? Same answer. By adopting Holocaust denial Mr. Ahmadinejad - - in the context of negotiating with the reluctant idiots/Israel - - is after a mix of the following:

1. Drive the political discourse within Iran to the right. That would force the Iranian opposition to meet him (and his supporting public and institutions) half-way. Which would mean that the opposition would need to quit on any hope/illusion it nurses that it could make of Iran a rest stop on the idiots’ HIGHWAY to Central Asia/the Caspian’s energy fields. Even if a political change results from the opposition’s travails, Holocaust denial would assure that that change would still keep the country Islamic since the political discourse would oscillate between a moderate form of hostility towards the idiots (the opposition's, having met Ahmadinejad half-way) and an extreme form (the Revolutionary Guard's.) But for driving the discourse to the right, using Holocaust denial, the opposition might shed Islamism altogether, forcing the extremist pole of the discourse to meet IT halfway - - to moderate, not the other way around.

2. Instigate an Israeli attack on Lebanon. Such would scuttle the reluctant idiots’ peace plan and the possibility of the creation in the region of a Palestinian state that’s yet another CIA station. (Gaza will suffocate and cry uncle under the boot of the Israeli-Egyptian alliance and its blockade of the Strip. When it does - - cry uncle - - Abbas would enter it victorious and finish Hamas once-and-for-all. The Gazans would be happy to have food, at last.)

3. Tighten Iran’s hold on the Arab Street, Iran’s secret ally against the reluctant idiots/Israel, and the idiots’ Arab protectorates.

4. Obtain concessions of substance from the reluctant ones in exchange for a promise to no longer issue such extremist statements - - a favorable exchange for Iran.

5. Maybe, just maybe, promising to re-ignite antisemitism in Europe - -to fund it, that is. (Again, in the context of negotiations with the reluctant idiots.)


IRAN SUCCEEDS AT DE-LINKING “SUNNI” FROM PATRIOTIC ARAB

The retreat (not that there’s another choice) on the harmful idiots’ stupid Highway Project (to Central Asia/the Caspian sea's energy fields), using direct military power, should confirm the proposition that “Sunni” doesn’t translate into “Arab patriot.”

As a result, for instance, the Arab public, Sunni in its greater majority, could no longer afford to see Syria weakened, even though Syria isn’t governed by Sunnis. The Arab public may be shedding (or perhaps already has shed) any association between the Sunni creed and patriotism. The Arab public could see that Arab countries which governments are Sunni had all but abandoned the plight of other Arabs - - the Palestinians, the Syrians, and the Lebanese - - just as they had allowed their ally, the harmful idiots/Israel, to invade and decimate Arab Iraq. The Arab public had appreciated the success Arab Iraq had in melding the Arabs, Sunni and Shia and Christians, into the melting pot of pan-Arab nationalism. This had avoided civil wars and the further disintegration of the Arab nation. But even from a sectarian perspective, within the paradigm of Iraq’s Arab nationalism, the Sunnis had fared well and had the lion’s share of the rule.

The Arab public is now returning to the perspective that anything that keeps the Arabs together and avoids further disintegration is to be preserved and encouraged. Secular Syria falls into that pool of unique experiences where Arab nationalism - - and repression of course - - had kept Arabs together: Sunnis, Shias, Christians, Armenians, and Kurds. (All governments repress: note the U.S. intelligence establishment’s likely - - highly - - payoffs and payments to its operatives at the Superior Court of the District of Columbia to harass this author to shut down his American newsletter, by hunting down the author out of his practice at that courthouse. And into what net?) For instance, Egypt is governed by Sunnis. Right? Yet, the Egyptian ruling class has little if any Arab patriotism left in it. Consider, for example, that this elite now has adopted the Jewish Brandeis University as its foremost own! Not even the appearance of patriotism!

To repeat: the Iranian-Syrian alliance has gone a long way in helping the Arab public shed any association between the Sunni creed and Arab patriotism - - especially after the alliance of the idiots and Israel-and-its-Diaspora (the right wing and the liberals in awe of their community’s right wing) had dismembered a Sunni-ruled Arab country.

THE MESSAGE

To repeat, in part, when the Iranian President denies the occurrence of the Holocaust, he is sending a message to two parties:

 To the Arab public; the massage says: Iran will not quit on the Palestinians, both those inside and outside. Iran will give a value to their suffering at the hands of the Israelis and their U.S. sponsor at least equal to the value the West gives to the Holocaust and the suffering of the Jewish people - - at the hands of the hypocritical Europeans; and

 To the reluctant ones; the message: give up; the Arab Street is ours. You’re so cute when your President and Secretary of State gather up Muslim Uncle Toms to have iftars (Ramadan dinners). But, in the end, the Arab Street is ours; you’re nothing but outsiders who finance colonial settlements, orchestrate with Jordanian and Lebanese army intelligence a civil-war-to-end-all-civil-wars which destroyed one Arab country (though we did get Hezbollah out of it - - we win any time you do anything Israel-inspired), and yet again break apart ANOTHER fellow Muslim country (for our benefit, but we won’t say that) - - then follow all of that by having an iftar! Your symbolism is ironclad incredible. You’re so smart. Stick to it. Can’t lose with all of this cunning symbolism. The Arab people truly appreciate your iftars with fellow Muslims.


As I’ve said in an earlier post (much earlier): Iran can ill-afford to see the droves of Sunnis in the Levant—Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Jordan - - mobilized against it. (It won’t happen even if there’s Israeli-Palestinian peace. But it’s relatively inexpensive to issue Holocaust-denial statements to assure that the Arab Street doesn’t stray too far.)

THE NEW BALANCE OF POWER: WILL THE IDIOTS-AND-ISRAEL BE ABLE TO DERAILIT?

With the retreat of the reluctant idiots - - to save money and energy - - the region has been witnessing the emergence of a new balance of power. Neither of the poles of the new system (Turkey and Iran) would want to threaten the safety of the other. Each has its own Achilles heels - - and each stands to benefit from the other. (Turkey as a route for Iranian energy.) Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has all but made it clear that not only would Turkey lobby its NATO allies for no new sanctions against Iran - -but, too, Turkey would lobby for the lifting of the old sanctions. Islamic Turkey knows best.

(Turkey has the more sensitive Achilles' heel - -its sizable Kurdish population. The Israelis/reluctant ones/British and Turkey may decide on a strategy where they divide up roles with Turkey. They, without Turkey, would ratchet up their campaign to entice domestic political change in Iran, while allowing Turkey to act as the good cop. In this scenario - - which already may have been initiated, for all I know, Turkey can look good to Iran, while allowing the British, for instance, to fund the Iranian opposition to keep the pressure up on Iran.)

Israel is insignificant - - and has been for the longest time. The idiots are stuck with it. It is stuck with the idiots. It’s part-and-parcel of the idiots’ national security establishment. Israel can busy itself with Egypt and Abbas in managing Hamas and Gaza. That's the extent of its horizon as a ghetto-like state.

But that doesn’t mean that the Israelis don’t nurse dreams and delusions. Already the Israeli strategists are preparing for some form of accommodation with a nuclear Iran. (Note the latest statement by Israel’s defense Minister Ehud Barak - -that Iran is not an existential (Shouldn't it be "a threat to the existence?") threat to Israel. Did he suddenly discover that Israel had enough defenses not to worry about Iran--or is he more likely accepting new reality?) The strategists are dreaming.

Israel’s only hope to regain some role in the region as an agent of empire is to put to use the American national security establishment (i.e., yet more sanctions and, later: war). It could, instead, live with the acceptance that it is an arms supplier on behalf of the idiots (e.g., India), and find satisfaction in that. But it’ll never accept that. It’ll use the fact that that American establishment, (of which Israel is a basic component) would still have to be concerned about Turkey and its peaceful coexistence with Iran. Accepting that would mean delivering oil-rich Iraq (mostly) to the Islamic Republic.

So the Israeli component of the American national security establishment should be expected to prod the establishment to push Turkey along by using the lure of weapons supplies. Too, the Israeli component should be expected to push the establishment to use the rift between the current Islamic government and the armed forces’ institutions with the hope that these would make a comeback. Finally, the idiots can have Israel - -already well-established in Iraqi Kurdistan - - supply money and support to the Kurdish rebels to instigate a return of the Turkish military.

But all these options should be outweighed by the peace-and-prosperity Turkey would obtain by cooperating with Iran. The odds therefore are against the revival of a vibrant Israeli-Turkish alliance. There will be cooperation between the two - - if only because Islamic Turkey would want to please the reluctant idiots (for whom Israel is an essential component of the American military establishment and their psyche) and their own military; but that “alliance” will no longer amount to any substance. I’m talking probabilities.

CONCLUSION

The reluctant ones-and-their-Israel hold out hope for the “Iranian opposition” to topple the regime. My advice to my fellow reluctant ones: Sober up a little. Even if the Iranian opposition makes it, unless it is TOTALLY a creation of the idiots, it’ll be a fool to relinquish the very powerful and beneficial Islamic card - - albeit no one is enamored any longer with exporting the "revolution." Iranian nationalism has gotten quite a lot from the Islamic ideology. Even in the days of the Shah, the Shia communities in the Arab nation had received Iranian aid. So Hezbollah and such aren't going to be cut off and disappear - - though Hamas might - -but likely won't since it'll still be a bridge between Iran and the Sunni Arab Street.

Islamic Iran is now busying itself consolidating its hold, gains, and defenses, knowing that the idiots (maybe a hybrid version of the harmful and the reluctant) would want revenge - - especially that the Israeli component of the national security establishment should be expected to push in that direction as soon as the country recuperates from its bankruptcy. (It won't be easy. Powerful right wing forces in the country and their demagogues would stand in the way of a needed change in economic/political paradigms. In that change, the federal government would need to take on more say and involvement in the economic/manufacturing life of the country so as to match the concentration of such that the Chinese government enjoys. Alternative: Bring in a couple of hundreds-of-millions of new immigrants.) But, for now, Islamic Iran has won. To be fair: It owes America’s Jewish right, Usama bin Laden, Crusader, and Bald Samson - - the mediocrity and idiocy of these and the murderous streak of one- - a big, BIG, thank you.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:

I write this disclaimer in the hope that it’ll keep the intelligence establishment from trying yet again to shut down this newsletter. The hope, too, is for that establishment to stop its campaign of harassment using its Israeli agents (the “Bad Cop”) and its non-double agents (the “Good Cop”). (If you wanted me to conclude that Israel's agents and America's agents are one-and-the-same - -you've succeeded! The harassment is and has been taking place at the Superior Court of the District of Columbia - -and against my father (indirectly) at the Lebanese Maronite church.

I would hope that the intelligence establishment would stop paying these agents (directly or in government contracts) to stage the harassment. (To document the harassment, I’ve drafted a post titled, “The American-Israeli Hunt: The Arab-as-Animal.”) (How much more money do these greedy assholes need to make? And have they not checked out the professional responsibility?) (They know what I'm talking about.) Too, I'd appreciate it if you'd stop hiring each-and-every snitch who claims he is a friend of mine and have him monitor my web activities.

That said, this newsletter is an open-source publication where I produce analysis based solely on my reading of newspapers. This newsletter has no connection WHATSOEVER to anyone in government, to ANY government, or to the business world. No one funds it. The only connection it has to government is one where the government pays greedy and unprincipled defense attorneys, taxi drivers, unemployed Ph.Ds, and all sorts of pests and to harass its author to shut down the newsletter.