AFTER THE RETREAT: WILL SYRIA TURN ITS BACK ON IRAN?

First and incomplete draft. A rough one.

(Please read the IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER at the end of the post.)

Reading a New York Times article a few days ago, I detected that the reluctant ones still are nursing hopes that they will be able to lure Arab Syria away from Iran. These, too, seem to think that they could attle both (Iran and Syria) and make them mistrust one another.

I don’t think so.

Let’s consider the contours of the subject:


1. In the absence of a settlement between Israel and Syria, Iran can reassure Syria that Iran and Iraq would provide Syria with the strategic depth it needs in its attempt to - -

(a) regain its land; and

(b) see to it that Arab nationalism - - an integrator of Arabs, Sunnis and Shiites and others - - is alive and well; this of course hinges on Arab nationalism not threatening Iran. It no longer does, what with Arab Iraq’s demise, once a relatively rich state to fund it. So Iran knows that that ship has sailed. But Arab nationalism isn’t fully gone. In large part it is a function of the Palestinian cause. That cause doesn’t threaten Iran, to say the least. Arab nationalism remains a potent force. It is insurance in part that Syria wouldn’t disintegrate a la Iraq or a la Lebanon. The same applies to other Arab countries - - e.g., Jordan. Arab nationalism, too, may heal Lebanon.

2. On the stick-end, Iran would assure that the Shiites of Lebanon remain united. Money will play a chief role. A united Shiite community in Lebanon would mean that Syria would pay a price. The price: Syria would lose its influence in Lebanon. To complicate matters for Syria - - should it turn against Iran, and therefore against a united Shiite community in Lebanon- -Syria would find itself in the Saudi camp in Lebanon - - Saad al-Hariri’s. That’s a mostly-Sunni camp, but it’s not one that controls the Sunni Street or the Palestinian camps in Lebanon. (For instance, the Hariri camp flooded Tripoli’s Sunni Street with money to win elections, then dropped that Street flat on its ass after the elections.) Not to mention that the rank-and-file in Lebanon’s armed forces is mostly Shiite.

The gist of it all: Lebanon would enter another civil war. Syria would bloody its hands moving against both the mostly-Shiite Lebanese army AND Hezbollah and the Shiites. Syria isn’t an idiot. Lebanon is part of its strategic depth. Things to Syria are fine the way they are. It's difficult to argue otherwise.

3. Importantly: Syria fields a pan-Arab elite which finds its match in all Arab countries, regardless of the type of government that rules that country. (Note that Muntazar - - the man who threw his shoes at President Bush (I’ve healed), and a part of the Arab elite - - chose Syria for medical treatment, not Iran. The pressure by the delusional and Israel-centric harmful idiots is over. Accordingly, the Arab elites can now live in tune with their Arab feelings. Expect their shopping trips to Damascus to increase markedly. Syria’s home to them. Syria is poor. They have the money. Barring Iran dropping the Palestinian cause, expect the Arab elites to show understanding for Syria in its alliance with Iran. (The Arab elites already are. You can see it in the writings of Abdel-Bari Atwan.)

4. True, Syria has a partnership agreement coming due soon with the European community. As the reluctant ones and that community ratchet up the pressure on Iran, if they do, Syria might feel that pressure too. But, for now, that pressure isn’t in full motion. Iran in its negotiations with the reluctant ones might keep Syria in mind. Communication between the two - - Syria and Iran - - likely will continue to be intense, not always at the visible level. With communication: coordination. Besides, I doubt that in the cost-benefit calculus Syria would shed its alliance with Iran without the Joulan and a peace with Israel that would preserve Syria’s Arab nationalist credentials - - that means a full-fledged Palestinian state on all of the pre-June 5, 1967 lands.

5. True, too, Syria has to be concerned about the Hariri tribunal. The Saudi King should be in Syria by now. The tribunal card, via Saad al-Hariri (Rafiq’s son), belongs to the King. Should the Saudis refuse to let go of the tribunal, Syria’s ally - -Iran - - could, for instance, wink at Muqtadha as-Sadr to revive the issue of the Shia Imams’ graves in Saudi Arabia. (He had raised that issue before and the Saudis likely coughed up money to silence it.) Not to mention that not letting go of the tribunal would amount to Lebanon living in limbo. Recently my father angrily commented that some Syrian official had called Lebanon “a sick country.” My response: if the statement had in fact been uttered, it was likely because Syria was positioning-and-maneuvering before the Saudi King had arrived in Damascus. Lebanon could “recuperate” as fast as the King’s plane departs the Damascus airport. Or not. (It’s “recuperating” as I write, but the Saudi King might not be responsive enough to Syria’s tribunal concerns. Lebanon’s “sickness” therefore would continue to fester.)

6. Iran can prove handy. For instance, what if Turkey cuts off the water - - or not increase its flow? True: Turkey and Syria now are enjoying a strategic relationship. But this relationship should head south if Turkey doesn’t release water to Syria (and Iraq.) The strategic relationship with Turkey therefore, in the end, might not mean much. Who’s going to come to Syria’s help? The highest likelihood - - for now - -: Iran.

CONCLUSION

The difference in Syria’s relationship with Saudi Arabia and the Israel-centric ones, on the one hand and, on the other, with Iran, is that Iran needs Syria - -e.g., Hezbollah as deterrent to an Israeli or American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But Saudi Arabia doesn’t need Syria. (We all know that Arab “brotherhood” means zilch.) Accordingly, Syria shouldn’t be expected to let go of such a precious relationship, one that is based on need and mutual benefit. The reluctant ones should by now have given up on luring Syria away from Iran. Not while Israel occupies Syrian and Palestinian land.


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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is independent. It has no connections WHATSOEVER to ANY government, including ours, or the business world. I (the editor) do NOT seek the views of anyone in government. (I do conduct my own opinion polling on colleagues to get a sense about things.) I develop my analysis based on my reading of newspapers. I told a friend recently: I started this newsletter as a graduate student - - not an old fart - - would. With courage. (Please forgive the self-congratulatory tone; but I need to vent.) I started it with the idea of dispelling the illusions of the harmful idiots. And I’m still at the task. When I started it, I knew I’d be monitored by government. (Hey, it was post-September 11.) What I didn’t know was that Government would be paying off so many people - - “colleagues,” “friends,” people I’ve helped as an attorney, and others - - to snoop on me. I became the cow to milk for these to make and supplement their income. No one from the intelligence-industrial establishment ever picked up the phone and said let's have a coffee. (If they did, I would've said I'd only talk to Senator George Mitchell or someone of his caliber.) Snooping and annoying harassment - - that was the way they established contact. For seven years, the post-September 11 State has put me through the ringer. It’s beyond me what they tell their snitches - -that they love me? I’m exhausted!

At a wake recently, I sat near a young physician from Northern Virginia. I went through the entire loving harassment and intimidation campaign by the intelligence-industrial complex having seemingly hired what looks like an entire Jewish-American organization to snoop and harass - - and Arabs, too. (It seems to me that the intelligence-industrial complex has hired Jewish groups, likely formed by entrepreneurs, to spy-and-collect-information on Arab-Americans and to provide what information they already had, and has hired Arab-Americans to do the same against Jewish-Americans. But, be mindful of the difference: we Arabs are the terrorists.)

The more I recounted the more the young doctor laughed - - nearly uncontrollably. When he was able to rein in his laughter (he was able to do that only a couple of times), he commented that “these people” had so much money that they’ve deluded themselves that you were bigger than you are; he said that all along they have wanted you to consult for them, more to nab you as a prize and silence you than for any real need for you. There’s just too much money, he kept repeating.

Mostly, however, the young doctor laughed - - and at a wake!