OIL RUSH TO PLANTATION IRAQ: WHOSE LIFE IS IT?

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A number of factors may explain the recent rush by Big Oil to Iraq.

It could be that Big Oil has assessed that, war-or-not, conventional-or-unconventional, its financial losses would be acceptable since the Iraqi government would take on so much of the cost: “They [Big Oil] saw that the contracts will actually generate quite a lot of revenue, You get full cost recovery and then a premium on every barrel,” said an expert to The Wall Street Journal. (“Big Oil Jumps for Licenses in Iraq,” Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009, at B2.)

What stands out is the fact that Big Oil seems to be unconcerned at the possibility that Iran would retaliate against it in Plantation Iraq as a way of warring on sanctions imposed by the Israel-Anchored Reluctant Ones. One likely reason for Big Oil’s indifference: It could be that “cost-recovery” is such that Iranian retaliation would in the end mean losses and expenditures to the Iraqi government, hardly to Big Oil.

Theoretically (remember I base my analysis totally on newspaper articles and on an innate ability to read the sub-culture of Israel-Anchored Idiots) it could be that senior administration officials have assured Big Oil that the Iran crisis is on its way to resolution in the sense that no military confrontation is possible. But that couldn’t be - - both from a balance of power perspective (the U.S. having taken on the role of the once-Arab Iraq, the one defeated and dismembered by the Israel-anchored Harmful Idiots, as balancer of Iranian power) and based on the fact that the Israeli wing of the Reluctant Ones possesses near-total monopoly over U.S. foreign policy in Western Asia, the servile Arab nation in particular.

Alright then, war-or-no-war, the financial losses would be incurred by Plantation Iraq’s government and not by us, goes Big Oil’s thinking. Conclusion: We can rush over to the oil-rich Plantation.

But Iran knows that. Right?

Should the sanctions’ regime be tightened (see, for instance, Friday’s Washington Post article about Secretary of Defense Robert Gates promising that much), my assessment is that Iran should be expected to retaliate if only to force the issue. Only a fool would expect it to stand still, motionless, while it is being strangled. But where would it retaliate?

Its retaliation is unlikely to take place in Lebanon. (See this newsletter’s recent post, “Chance Encounters with the Body Snatchers . . .”) Nor in Palestine; Hamas and the other Palestinian nationalists in Gaza are more of an irritant to Our Beloved than a destabilizing threat. This is especially true since our ally, the Egyptian government, is intent on making these Iranian Arab proxies, A.K.A. Palestinian nationalists, eat shit. (Israel and Israel have anointed Egypt as Gaza’s overseer.) An irritant-under-siege hardly would be able to mount retaliation that counts.

Plantation Iraq therefore should be Iran’s most likely place for retaliation for the stricter sanctions. (No, it isn’t Yemen’s Saada; that’s kids playing.)

But we now know, as does Iran, that retaliating by blowing up Big Oil’s installations only hurts the Iraqi government, hardly Big Oil. It could be therefore that the retaliation of substance will be directed at Big Oil’s personnel.

But Big Oil’s smart analysts likely already have predicted that.

So how would Big Oil deal with this Iranian threat? My guess: Big Oil will flood its ranks in Plantation Iraq with disposable foreigners and Arabs.

“Oh, Iran - -Vigilantly-Frantic-and-Frantically-Vigilant Iran: A couple of contract clauses should make our foreign and Arab personnel in Plantation Iraq utterly disposable. Dubai’s fiasco is giving us ample cheap labor. Go ahead, then. Be our guest: Retaliate to your heart’s content.” So says Big Oil.

Knowing that its retaliation against Big Oil’s disposable personnel will have no echo, Iran will be left no choice but to engage even deeper in Iraqi politics. The Reluctant Ones intend to do the same.

That sad, sad, Plantation - - yet another Arab victim of a foreign-and-military-policy subculture which anchors itself to Israel and its Diaspora institutions.