SUCCESS AGAINST IRAN

Still rough draft

APOLOGY

First, forgive me for the anger I expressed in two posts back. I don’t appreciate friends leading agents of the Israelis to my hiding place where I do my best work. And I’m tired of the snooping by these and by Government – the two now firmly allied. Neither has anything to offer me. At my age: it’s best to stick to one’s guns and say it as it is. To provide an alternative perspective to the Dominant One. To be useful as a way of dealing with age - - to engage the way Jean-Paul Sartre would’ve advised.

To become beholden to either - - Government or the Israeli-American institutions - - would be, in my judgment, a disservice to my country - - our Great Nation of Consumers. (I’m waiting for the sales that follow New years’ - - the only worthwhile sales.)

TURKEY SEEKS THE HELP OF THE ISRAEL-INSPIRED RELUCTANT ONES, AND VICE VERSA

REIN IN KURDISH NATIONALISM

The Arab press says that one possible area of discussion between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Obama during Mr. Erdogan’s meeting at the White House will be the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Mr. Erdogan will offer a quid pro quo: we’ll help you in Afghanistan if you help us with the PKK.

The attentive observer should see in this the working of the American phase in the balance of power system in Western Asia. Instead of Mr. Erdogan seeking the assistance of the Iraqi government on the PKK issue, he is seeking that of the American government. Instead of seeking the help of the Government of Kurdistan, he is seeking the intervention of the White House.

In other words: To the Turks, the Iraqi government is a weak and ineffective puppet. (That puppet executed 120 people in 2009, with 900 others awaiting barbaric Texas-style Christian Old Testament death.) The Kurdish Government isn’t weak, but will never help the Turkish government against its own.

The Arabs having been made to eat shit by the alliance of the Diaspora’s institutions and the Christian Right - - the United States is now the only game in town.

Our best bet, therefore, is to seek help from the Reluctant Ones, who (as institutions) love the Kurdish Government and should therefore be able to pressure it to rein in the PKK. So goes the Turks’ thinking.

Mr. Erdogan is said to be bringing along a Turkish general to explain why the Turkish army is too busy in southeastern Turkey (home to its Kurdish population) to be able to dispatch troops to Afghanistan. In other words, the Turks believe that should the PKK be reined in, trouble for their government would diminish in the southeastern part of the country, thus freeing Turkish troops to be dispatched to Afghanistan.

I’m reluctant to second-guess the Turkish government, but we don’t know that this would happen - - that, in fact, eradicating the PKK would end or diminish substantially Kurdish nationalism (and paramilitary activism) within Turkey. Kurdish terror operations, I would say minimal now, would turn (as they are) into mass demonstrations on the streets. This should be as destabilizing a phenomenon as the few terror operations the PKK is getting away with - -both to country and government.

I think Mr. Erdogan, by making his request, is revealing the desperation of his government vis-à-vis the Country of Kurdistan and Kurdish nationalism. That Country is the same one which has the full support of the Reluctant Ones and, earlier, had the full support of the Harmful Idiots. That Country can finish the PKK but isn’t willing. Chalk it up to nationalism and the fear Kurdish leaders have that such a step would end up disintegrating their own Country. It IS Kurdish nationalism in northern Iraq - - not Arab, and certainly not Turkish.

Put differently: Consciously or not, Mr. Erdogan is asking Mr. Obama to rein in the Country of Kurdistan itself - - to rein in its Kurdish nationalism. An impossible mission. We’re in it knee-deep - - Kurdish nationalism, that is. Consciously or not, we stand behind it. We don’t want an intra-Kurdish civil war either.

(Note: the article about Mr. Erdogan's visit in the Washington Post today says nothing about a quid pro quo. It's written as if the PKK is no longer an issue. Wonder where from al-AKhbar - - Lebanese daily - - got its information.)

JOIN US IN THE ENCIRCLEMENT OF IRAN

The Reluctant Ones want Turkey to join them in encircling Iran and forcing it to shed its nuclear program. (I’m making a big assumption here: that in fact that’s the goal. I don’t think the Iranians, both IRG and the Opposition, see it like that; they see the goal of the Israel-inspired Reluctant Ones as one of putting in control the American-NATO-Israel Wing in Iranian politics, now that such Wing does in fact exist.) Likely, this will be their condition. But Turkey’s Kurdish Achilles’ heel is too painful to launch on what in effect would be war with Iran. In other words, Turkey isn’t up to balancing Iranian power, albeit with the help of the Reluctant Ones. There’s too much trouble in it for them.

And I don’t think it’ll make a difference whether the Generals are returned to power. If anything, the Generals would tend to want to go into the Country of Kurdistan and wage war on all Kurds. And, in addition to war, they would do what Mr. Saddam Hussein had done: divide-and-conquer within Kurdistan.

Army generals or Islamists, one route the Turks might take would be to coordinate with Iran (in a confidence-building exercise) to do just that: divide-up the Kurds.

CAN WE AFFORD SUCCESS IN IRAN?

The larger question: In view of the fact that the United States has taken on the role once played by Arab Iraq, to balance Iranian power even if it takes years-and-years of war, how would the United States deal with success, if success happens? Meaning: even short of actual war, if the American-NATO-Israel Wing in Iranian politics comes anywhere close to taking over, one should expect a civil war. IRG shouldn’ be expected to deliver the country to the American Wing just because that Wing wants it. As I have repeatedly warned in this newsletter, expect IRG (and the Syrian Baath) to have evolved plans to disintegrate their respective states as a way of waging unconventional war against the Americans - - should these come close to invading these two countries.

Now I would go further: Expect that IRG would disintegrate the state at any sign of success by the Israel-inspired U.S. institutions in putting their Wing in control of Iran.

With that, one should expect the possibility - - I would say: distinct - - of Iran breaking-up along religious-ethnic lines. We already have a live example of the result of American longing, inspired by Diaspora institutions and strategists, to control everything in the Arab nation and the Muslim World. That example is Iraq. Why should the results in Iran be different? If they are, it’ll be because IRG, unlike Saddam, having learned from Iraq, should by now have prepared intricate plans for the civil war. In that sense, the disintegration would be in good part self-induced and therefore much more complex to control by the Israel-inspired U.S. institutions.

One likely result of that scenario - - Iran’s disintegration - - would be that the Kurdish population within Iran would secede and would be welcomed (de facto) by the Country of Kurdistan in northern Iraq. That new entity would likely be such a boost to Kurdish nationalism within Turkey that that country (Turkey) would be witnessing its own bloody civil war. The Turkish armed forces would then have no choice but to enter the Country of Kurdistan. Yet another war.

I can’t think of any one safe way for the Israel-inspired Reluctant strategists to bring their team to power in Iran without that country going the way of a civil war - - and disintegration, albeit induced by IRG. If Iran does go the way of civil war, what makes the Israel-inspired Reluctant strategists think that they can keep our troops out of Iran? The temptation would be tremendous - - even iron-clad.

If the Israel-inspired Strategists fail to support their Wing within Iran (for what that Wing wants) then that Wing would give up on the Israel-inspired U.S. institutions - - sooner-or-later. It’s tempting (and quite naïve) to delay that disappointment by advising the American-NATO-Israel Wing to take it easy, so to speak, and work from within the Islamic framework. IRG isn’t stupid. It’d want to force that Wing outside of the Islamic framework. So don’t expect IRG to let this happen. IRG can take risks because, in the end, it has a “golden parachute” and it’ll use it if it has to.

All of this is by way of asking: Can the alliance of the American National Security establishment and Israel’s Diaspora institutions afford success in Iran?