BURN LEBANON BURN: THE WAR-OF-THE-CAMPS. AND TURKEY TO ISRAEL: “MOVE OVER, SUCKER.”

3d draft, with somewhat significant changes

Pincer: "One part of a double envelopment in which two military forces converge upon opposite sides of an enemy position." Webster’s

NO DRUNK AND LOOSE WOMEN: KEEP ME OUT OF IT

People send me emails from across the political spectrum. Lately there has been a spike in emails from Lebanese Christian right-wing groups. I was able to stop one, using humor. I told the guy to send me emails only when they’re having a party attended by drunk and loose women. He promised he would (!) and stopped his emails. Then on to the others. Then I gave up.

One last email came from yet another Christian right-wing group. These work closely with Diaspora nationalists – indirectly confirmed to me a few days ago by one of them . The last email wanted to brief me on what a harmful idiot, now idiot-reluctant, by the name of Feltman had said about Lebanon. Like I care.

LEBANON AND THE HARMFUL FELTMANS

I wasn’t going to read what the harmful Feltman had said because, frankly, it’d be Israel-inspired. Go after Hezbollah. Blah. Blah. Blah. Fight wars for oil, claiming they’re wars for Israel, to mobilize the Jewish community. Tell them it’s for Israel’s security. Get that oil away from the Chinese. Haul it away from the Russians. Do it all as an Israel-anchored warring country. In the meanwhile, be such an idiot as not to realize that foraying around leads to national bankruptcy. You don’t even understand the limits of your own country. Blame it all on that “unipolar moment.” (That should excuse your harmful mediocrity.) Forget public policy. Be part of a team which aimed to bankrupt the Federal government so that the darker ones don’t get ideas about enacting such initiatives as a national health plan. Go for oil grabs and call them wars so you can pay-off your constituency with money we don’t have – again, to keep those darker ones A.K.A. federal government weak.

(But, WOW: we didn’t aim for such a severe bankruptcy. And now, Mr. Obama will spend on domestic priorities anyway, even if it takes printing money - - “quantitative easing” - - which should put us - - the Republicans? Or what passes for Republicans now that they have disowned Crusader - - in a corner where the next time we get to the White House, we HAVE to be fiscally conservative - - and therefore unpopular. )

I’m tired of addressing myself to idiots.

Okay. Got it out of my system. I needed that. Here:

PRINCIPLES TO-LIVE-BY

(1) Lebanon cannot be governed but by consensus. Hezbollah is needed to evolve and define that consensus, just as any other Lebanese cargo cult, like it or not.

(2) Lebanon is part of Iran’s strategy to defend itself. Hezbollah is part-and-parcel of that strategy. That doesn’t mean that Hezbollah is Iranian. It’s not. It’s got its own persona. It’s a vanguard of Arab nationalism, a force that's forever evolving to escape assassination attempts by the American-Israeli-NATO alliance. As the situation on the ground changes, Hezbollah will either die off or, more likely, transform itself into a more politically powerful and less Shia Arab nationalist group.

(3) Unlike Feltman’s “assets,” Hezbollah is a non-corrupt political entity. Together with Hamas, their style in politics is mostly devoid of corruption. That offers a new paradigm for the Arab nation. Non-corruption bestows tons of legitimacy on Hezbollah. Feltman’s Grand Thieves don’t have that advantage. (Once again: political scientists have always known that a modicum of corruption is necessary to get things done; but, in Lebanon’s case, we’re talking Grand Thievery of a national purse – a method imported by Hariri from that paradise of non-corruption – Saudi Arabia.)

(4) Syria will not let Lebanon go its own way on peace with Israel - - and can one blame it? Unless, of course, one is a harmful idiot who is a Feltman, living in a world of Israel-as-our-life illusions. Besides, Hezbollah and Syria share in Arab nationalism. They understand each other in a way that harmful idiots and their assets in Britain and France and Germany could never fathom, however often they try to expand their grab of that oil and ignite civil wars in the region. Not that Hezbollah will forever remain so strongly allied to Syria. But we're talking probabilities.

(5) Still talking probabilities: Breaking up Syria’s link to Iran, and to Russia, is yet another hope-borne-out-of-illusions. The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah “axis,” to use a word drummed up by Feltman’s former boss, Harmful Crusader, to take us for an oil grab-miscalculated-to-become-national-bankruptcy, is a winning axis. You, Feltman, and your Israelis (the Axis of Conquest and New Colonialism), are not. If anything, Syria now should be expected to act as the bridge between America’s new (way newer than before) strategic ally, governed by Islamists, Turkey, and its faithful backer: Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia and their ilk are - - oh boy - - eminently insignificant. Any significance they can salvage would for Israel come out of its ability to block and delay and kill and maim; for Saudi Arabia: you guessed it - - it's oil.

(5.a) The Pincer: But things will certainly change radically if you wage full war on Iran, which is unlikely in the short-to-medium term, but likely in the longer term. You certainly are preparig for it in the future. That is: for now, you're deterring Iran conventionally and doing your damnest best not to let it tilt Iraq in full in Iran's camp. But these same combat troops, and those in Kuwait and Qatar and the French and British ones in the UAE, in the long-term, would be meant for full war on Iran.

Hence the following: To keep 50,000 combat troops in Iraq (they ARE combat troops regardless of what you call them) is meant to give the (false) impression to the American public: (a) that these are not combat troops; and (b) that their number is only 50,000.

Their number is much higher. Borders are imaginary, in a sense. So one should add to the 50,000 those troops in Kuwait and in Qatar. These should join with Turkey’s armed forces to form a pincer squeeze against Iran. Conventional balance of power established, and deterrence to boot.

(That’s why the Iranians weren’t as awed by Mr. Obama’s overture to them as we were, silly us. The war for the Iranians is now appearing to be much longer and much more arduous. They have the entire Western World lined up against them - - the U.S., NATO. And now Turkey as the spearhead - - for all practical purposes. They now know that they can’t rely on our bankruptcy to get things done for themselves in Iraq. That oil and its routes are way too precious and if it takes printing money to keep the troops there to secure it, then be it. They must be feeling the leaden weight of empire's boot more than they have ever felt it before. Any wonder they need a nuclear weapon? (It won't help them any, though it likely does bring the elite together.) It’s up to Russia and China now to sweeten the deal to Iran. Will they? Will Abushehr start actual operation any time soon? Will Russia and Iran both cease trying to bargain away parts of their relationship in exchange for concessions from the U.S.? We’ll see.)

(6) Locking the door and handing the keys to Turkey by the retreating - - not retreated - - harmful idiots -- not that they have a choice, though they do have illusions and false hopes –-- is so fraught with traps (for all) that Turkey is unlikely to carry out the agenda of Israel/Feltman – as the idiots-reluctant are hoping. (The pincer strategy is only that - - for now: a theoretical construct. If ever applied, then the oil will blow up. Unless it’s a waiting game - - to wait out the Islamic regime in Iran, which has been a strategy all-along. Or, at the very least, to tame the Islamic Republic now that that Republic has tamed the harmful idiots. Our turn: we’ll do it through Turkey-as-a-Sunni-force. In the absence of domestic pressure at home in the U.S., Iran will be the one that'll be tamed, not Turkey nor the U.S.)

I’m hoping Turkey goes its own way to assure peace-first - - not oil-first - - in that region. But, what are the chances that the leaders of the Justice and Development Party, so thrilled to be of use to the idiots-reluctant, wouldn’t themselves miscalculate? ( The Islamic Justice and Development Party is right to be happy; the idiots-reluctant now have accepted it as legitimate. Islamic Hamas next? Perhaps this is only an Obama thing; Perhaps another administration wouldn’t be as enamored with Islamist-ruled Turkey. Likely, however, it's the result of an overall strategic re-assessment. Still: It’s a huge step for the United States, a positive one that's long overdue; Islamic Turkey should replace Israel as the strategic base. That’s likely the hope. So you should expect as aggressive a campaign against Turkey by the Diaspora nationalists as one can imagine. Their baby is losing importance so fast. But then, they may decide to tag along with Turkey; but they will have to make concessions on the ground in Palestine/Israel and the Joulan. Will they? Can they?)

The Turks are flattered. But the road they’re taking is so fraught with potential (even likely) high turbulence for the region, and for Turkey. Should Turkey try to execute a Feltman/Israel agenda, money will pour to the Kurds of Turkey, enough to bring back the fascist generals to power. Too, it’ll be war by proxy in Iraqi Kurdistan, spreading inside Turkey and Iran, deeper inside Turkey if only because there are more Kurds there than in Iran. (Talabani may yet get his chance to whip Barazani’s ass as he nearly did in the past, but for the intervention of 30,000 Iraqi troops.) In other words, Turkey better sit down with the Iranians and coordinate with them.

(7) Lebanon’s Palestinian refugees are a time-bomb waiting to explode, because people like the Feltmans, allied to the Diaspora nationalists, and impregnating this government’s foreign policy and intelligence establishment, monopolizing American foreign policy towards the Arab nation and the wider Muslim world, just want it done the way of their beloved.

SATI3 LOST HIS FATHER. MY MOST SINCERE SYMPATHY.

And so what inspired this piece isn’t really Feltman. It was Sati’ Nour-el-Din of as-Safir. On 3/26/09, in commenting on the recent assassination of Kamal Midhat, Deputy to the Representative of the PLO in Lebanon, Mr. Nour-el-Din pointed the finger at the Palestinians themselves. He warned that the intra-Palestinian war might just turn into a “war-of-the-[refugee] camps” which should spread into the immediate surrounding.

(My take on the assassination, without having spent much time on it: Hamas – and possibly Hezbollah – are forcing the issue with the Abbas people: continue on wanting Hamas eliminated from political life and we’ll eliminate you politically from among the 410,000 Palestinians of Lebanon.)

That war-of-the-camps should burn Lebanon, that helpless victim of the Israel-as-our-anchor harmful thinking of the harmful idiots and the idiots-reluctant.

Be mindful that Lebanon is one of the highest densely-populated countries on earth. So a war-of-the-camps will really be yet another Lebanese civil war, if only in impact. That the late Rafiq al-Hariri, now a “martyr” as so many are in that part of the world, had imported the Saudi model of governance into Lebanon and, accordingly, saw to it that Lebanon was sunk into a debilitating national debt (mostly, I suspect, to Lebanon’s banks, and chiefly, I suspect, to the Hariri family AKA Saudi royals’ bank(s).) That debt had continued to grow, in part to meet the payroll and social security for all the people Hezbollah and Amal had placed on the payroll of the Lebanese state. Anything short of the harmful idiots stopping to bug the hell out of the region will only burn Lebanon, yet again, financially and in civil strife. If that Feltman harmful idiot cannot pay Lebanon’s national debt, and he can’t since we’re bankrupt, then he should just stay the hell out.

(But the region’s leaders want us there, say the Feltmans and other harmful idiots. Of course, they do. There are the reactionary ones, our “friends,” and there are the many who are on our payroll -the “assets”– and who will say what we tell them to say. And the Feltmans tell them to ask for us, and they do.)

Going back to Mr. Nour-el-Din. He is worried about the repercussions of a war-of-the-camps. His proposed solution, though, is naive – but a good try nonetheless. He wants Lebanon’s political discourse to match that of the Palestinian refugees, as a way of disarming these, with the proviso of allowing Lebanon to be a stage for these refugees to pursue their cause politically and diplomatically. What’s that all about? Either Mr. Nour-el-Din wants to disarm the Palestinians or he wants to use the ruse of having the Lebanese politicians act as Arab nationalists to become ones. Once they act out the role, they become the role itself – so goes Nour-el-dine’s thinking.


Serious: Like you’re going to have harmful idiot proxies like Samir Geagea , who can’t seem to mobilize his people but via the Holy Eucharist and Hariri-Saudi money, use Arab nationalist discourse! Or Saad al-Hariri, who’d rather talk motorcycles than read up on Jamal Abdel Nasser, Michel Aflaq, the Nakbah, and so on.

CELA DIT...

Averting a Palestinian war-of-the-camps in Lebanon starts by having the idiots-reluctant instruct their native mercenaries in Palestine to heal their Elliott Abrams’-engineered rift with Hamas.

If not: Lebanon will burn.

Or maybe not. Maybe it’ll sit there, waiting forever, dying a slow death, courtesy of the Diaspora nationalists, the harmful Feltmans, and the Feltmans-reluctant.

TEMPEST-IN -TEA-CUP: ON THE STALEMATE IN THE CRATER-MIDDLE-EAST

“There are two tragedies in life. One is to lose your heart’s desire. The other is to gain it.” George Bernard Shaw

This is a second draft. Little change in substance. !

SHAYKH HAMAD’S ULCER AND MIGRAINE HEADACHES

The upcoming Arab summit in Doha, Qatar, likely is giving Shaykh Hamad an ulcer and a series of headaches. The Egyptian ruling elite still is deluding itself about the regional power Egypt isn’t. So it isn’t talking to Qatar. Instead of Mubarak or his foreign minister, it may dispatch the Foreign Ministry’s doorman, Abu Ahmad Mahmoud al-Hamadain al-Saadawi. (Yes!) (Aren’t you glad SUNY gave me a Ph.D.? Such public service it has provided the nation.) Egypt’s rulers (Egypt’s people love Qatar) perceive Qatar as Islamist and allied to Iran. (Qatar, to the Pentagon, should be the new model of presence among he Arab nation, allowing for Arab nationalism with the Islamic flavor; You bring in the Diaspora nationalists and their right-wing allies, and even the CIA-once-the-meltdown-is-over-if-ever -- depending on who resides in the White House -- and it’ll be a coup against Shaykh Hamad. Because, you see, the harmful idiots will mis-calculate when they decide on war with Iran, or else they wouldn't be idiots or harmful, would they? The Pentagon people will have to stop them, unless the Pentagon is taken over yet again by Diaspora nationalists.)

Saudi Arabia and Egypt aren’t at all enamored with the idea of the Iranian President (who King Abdallah had held by the hand as he would a grandson, only a couple of years ago, if that long) attending the Arab summit as observer.

QATAR v. JORDAN: THOSE HASHEMITES ON THE CIA PAYROLL

Then you have al-Jazeera (Shaykh Hamad’s enforcer) air an interview with Mohammad Hassanein (not only one Hasan but two!) Haykal, the aged Egyptian journalist, once adviser to the late and super-handsome (and I mean this in the way that I don’t mean it about the UAE’s Foreign Minister and Kuwait’s Emir) Jamal Abdel-Nasser.

In that interview Mr. Haykal talked about the Hashemite ruling family of Jordan historically having such cozy relations with Israel, and about the late King Hussein being on the CIA payroll. Why did al-Jazeera do that? Perhaps to put pressure on Jordan to not attend the Doha Summit -- since Qatar may know already that Jordan isn't anyway. Jordan likely finds it easier to be in the Saudi camp. If only because it’s sensing a possible huge bite-in-the-ass by the Netanyahu-Lieberman planned cabinet. ( “Transfer” anyone?) Jordan would hope that Egypt (and not only the CIA which wouldn;t dare anger the Diaspora nationalists) would retaliate against Israel by, for one, opening its border in full with Gaza -- without pre-conditions -- should the new Israeli cabinet dare raise the banner of “transfer.”

It befuddled the hell out of me why the Jordanian government establishment became so angry about al-Jazeera and Haykal’s revelations. (Haykal likely needed to make a buck.) Damn it: ever since a child in Lebanon we knew the Hashemites to be on the CIA payroll and Jordan a CIA station. And we knew that the Hashemites were in cahoots with the Israelis. What’s the fuss all about? As a child, I remember so many of my Christian relatives posting portraits of the late King Hussein and of President Kennedy in their businesses and at their homes. As a cargo cult of the West, the Christians (who should all end up here once our society-of-the-tax-base-and-accumulated-capital decides we need to expand the base of the tax-paying pyramid by importing one hundred million immigrants) of that one town were proud that the late King was on the CIA payroll. So, what’s wrong with the Jordanian government establishment? Are they ashamed? What’s there to be ashamed about? Even the Islamists of Jordan allow for CIA payments to their government. They’re not stupid. They know the King and his CIA are Jordan’s only hope for money and aid. Can Arab Qatar assure them of aid to the tune of what the U.S. provides? Doubtful. Highly. (Payments to Kings and Presidents and Prime Ministers and army generals are easy. But hundreds of millions of dollars yearly to feed a hungry Jordanian population is not. Right?)

ONCE WE HAD INFLUENCE: BUT OUR ALLIES THE HARMFUL IDIOTS -- ESPECIALLY CRUSADER, BALD SAMSON AND THE DIASPORA BOYS -- HAVE SAPPED US, SCREWED US, REALLY

Would Saudi Arabia and Egypt allow for Turkey’s attendance as observer at the Arab summit? Would they Indonesia? Likely they would. but not Iran!

Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt are aching for the yesteryears: Saudi financial power and Egyptian once-military power, and later as a tag-along to Saudi Arabia’s financial power. Oh dear. These days are over. True, the Saudi ruling elite may be able to extend somewhat its ability to buy up influence and have other armies fight for it. The recent phone call by President Obama to the King may have deluded that elite quite a bit: please do not cut oil production, and don’t let OPEC do it, until we’re out of the financial hole Crusader and Mr. Greenspan had put us in. Will you keep the troops in Iraq longer? Yes; I’ll try my best, I tell myself. But to you, I say: absolutely. A quid pro quo of sorts. But is the Saudi ruling elite really betting on this? Qatar should be their model. Playing-for-time shouldn't. It’s fraught with danger. But if we change course, the Israelis will bomb us. Ha! You will never have as much legitimacy among the Arab nation and among your own people as when the Israelis and/or their harmful idiots bomb you. If I were an Arab leader, I’d be begging for that.


RUNNING-IN-PLACE: SUCH IS THE FATE OF THE SAUDI RULING ELITE

Remember the “political battlefield pole” I talked about a couple of posts ago, and had contrasted it to the “Saudi Option pole” ? (See: “The Saudi Option Isn’t”) Here: consider this statement by Saud al-Faisal in the aftermath of Mottaki’s visit with the Saudi King:

“ Although we appreciate Iranian support for Arab causes, we nonetheless deem that this support should go through the door of the Arab Legitimacy (he means governments, but not Syria’s or Qatar’s) and [that this support] be in harmony with the goals and [political] position of [the Arab Legitimacy] and that [this Iranian support] would express its solidarity with [the Arab Legitimacy] and not try to be an alternative to [the Arab Legitimacy.]” (My translation; if there’s confusion, it’s likely because the statement was so convoluted as only Mr. Faisal’s people can create.)

What’s he talking about? By way of answer I'll refer to the rhetorical questions asked by an Arab journalist: does Mr. Faisal really expect Iran to go through the Saudi proxies in Lebanon (the Seniora government) to pass weapons on to Hezbollah? Or to go through the harmful idiots’ where’s-my-paycheck-to-build-my-villa puppets in Ramallah to pass weapons on to Hamas? Is he really expecting Iran to shed its defenses once-and-for all and lie prostrate before U.S. and Israeli planes? Iran and Syria , where the middle classes are involved in their armies, will never subscribe to the Saudi model of government-scared-of-raising-an-army-and-forever-seeking-outside-protection.

More to the point about the statement is that it betrays paralysis in Saudi decision-making. Faisal cannot say it: but the stodgy succession process A.K.A. extended-family-with-thousands-upon-thousands-of-princes-politicking -about robs the Saudi government of much needed flexibility and ability to maneuver. In short: Saudi Arabia isn’t able to adopt the “political battlefield” model even though, clearly, that model would buttress not only its regional role and its status in Washington, D.C. (where it has to beg the Diaspora nationalists, who have taken over U.S. foreign policy towards the Arab nation, in full, and have fused idiots-reluctant foreign policy instituions whith those of Israel, for each and every favor) but, too, the future role of the royal family – minus a few thousand princes (if only there was flexibility) who likely drain the hell out of the budget when oil prices are low.



Editor’s comment: I really, really, had nothing to say this morning, yet I came up with the above blah, blah, blah. The joke is on you. Or is it on me?

MOTTAKI’S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA

thoroughly rough second and no more draft

Here’s a summary of an article by Ali al-Haj Yusef, who writes from Tehran for the Lebanese as-Safir . The article appeared on 3/17/09, and was titled. “Mottaki’s Visit and the Four-Way Reconciliation, and the Syrian [Positive] Prediction of [closer] Arab-Iranian Relations; Saudi Arabia and Iran Leave Their [respective] Trenches [to consult with each other].”


The interpretation some had advanced that the recent reconciliation meeting among Saudi Arabia, Syria, Kuwait and Egypt was to entice Syria to sever its strategic alliance with Iran -- that interpretation was wrong. Mottaki’s recent tour of the Gulf countries, in particular his stop in Saudi Arabia, dispel that falsehood.

Iranian sources which had followed Mottaki’s tour told Yusef that there couldn't be a permanent rupture in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia because so many issues are of concern to both -- such as the security of the Gulf, the re-birth of Iraq, the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC, and so on. {Editor’s comment: Yusef’s “sources” are full of it. Underlying Mottaki’s tour and his visit to Saudi Arabia was the opportunity to build on Iran’s achievements anad do it in a timely fashion -- that the struggle for Saudi Arabia is now tilting in Iran’s favor, with Iran hoping that the Kingdom would sever its not-so-secret relations and informal alliance with Israel.]

The same “sources” pointed to the false interpretation of the reconciliation conference in Saudi Arabia which included Syria. In fact, the sources say, that reconciliation conference had paved the way for Mottaki’s visit -- that Syria in fact had played the role of the mediator -- to bring Iran into the Arab fold.

That Iran was collecting on its victories in Mottaki’s visit comes out in what the sources told Yusef about an American retreat in the region - -

“‘[Nite] the proposal by [President] Barrack Obama for negotiating with Tehran and the American and European opening towards Syria and the British dialogue with Hezbollah and the visit by the American and European delegations to the Gaza Strip and their meeting with the Hamas leaders in Damascus –All of these events are indication which should be seen as transformation in the Western position -- that the West[is in fact] conceding the probable rise of the Axis of Rejection (Iran and Syria -- rejection of domination by the Axis of Conquest and New Colonialism --Israel, the harmful idiots,a dn the Diaspora nationalists) following (the relative victory of Hezbollah and Hamas in) the Lebanon and the Gaza wars -- [that it would be wrong to read these events] as indicating disintegration among the ranks of the Axis of Rejecction, as some imagine and delude themselves.’” [Editor’s note: correct analysis.]

These sources explained that Syria had attended the reconciliation conference as a country that was proud of the correctness of its path and of its choice of alliances --- and all one needed to verify this interpretation was to look at the “ashen face” of Hosni Mubarak at that conference. [Editor’s note: totally correct: That face, with pouting lips, and worried and nervous look, couldn’t have expressed more of a sense of defeat.]

THE SAUDI OPTION ISN’T

rough draft

[What I’m currently re-reading: Hawes, Annie, Extra-Virgin: A Young Woman Discovers the Italian Riviera , Where Every Month Is Enchanted. (2001)

DECLARATION OF (NO) CONFLICT

I don’t know Mr. Charles Freeman from Adam.

THE SYMBOLIC CHARLES FREEMAN AND HOW THE DIASPORA NATIONALISTS GAVE THE ARAB OPPOSITION AND IRAN A VICTORY

The recent withdrawal by Charles Freeman of his nomination to head the National Intelligence Council eliminates the idiots-reluctant’s lame attempt at (possibly) going Arab – Saudi really. For what it’s worth, the idiots-reluctant should know that Mr. Freeman’s nomination wouldn’t have made them anymore Arab than having me take over that post. But, in the medium to long-term, Mr. Freeman likely would’ve contributed to making U.S. foreign policy towards the Arab nation less biased. In short, he would’ve corrected a failed course of over eight years under the reign of Crusader and Bald Samson.

It seemed, just perhaps, that with Mr. Freeman the Obama Administration was in part trying to give Saudi Arabia some say in the foreign policy, defense, and intelligence establishment – a stake of sorts. The idea likely would’ve been to balance Israel’s extensive representation through the Diaspora nationalists in that establishment. No can do. Oddly, however, the withdrawal of the nomination can be said to have been a victory for Iran and the Arab opposition. The Diaspora nationalists blocked for them the appointment of an American who would’ve been a worthier foe to them (Iran and the Arab opposition) than any of those allied to the Diaspora nationalists, under Crusader and Bald Samson or within the Obama Administration.

Let us presume for a moment that Mr. Freeman’s appointment was in fact (in part) a concession to the Saudis. Having once criticized Israel’s colonialist expansion, he would’ve been more credible with many. Here’s a friend of Saudi Arabia in an important foreign and national security post who wasn’t beholden to the Diaspora nationalists. With a background of having criticized Israel’s colonialism, he would’ve been expected to correct a course that had failed miserably for the past eight years, under Crusader and Bald Samson. A course which cost a lot of lives and contributed significantly to our national bankruptcy. By correcting that course, he would’ve made U.S. foreign policy more credible to 300 million Arabs, and a wider Muslim world. Although the Diaspora nationalists had been in a precarious alliance in Washington, D.C. with the Saudi ruling elite (an alliance that likely, one would think, at a minimum, should've been going through strain following King Abdallah’s criticism of Israel at the Kuwait economic summit), those nationalists and Israel still could ill-afford to take a risk on Mr. Freeman’s appointment. Oddly, too, nor could the Arab opposition and Iran. After all, these wouldn't have wanted an American who would correct U.S. foreign policy, making it more even-handed. That would’ve threatened the use by Iran and by the Arab opposition of plum wedge issues in the region. In that sense Mr. Freeman’s withdrawal of his nomination, under pressure from the Diaspora nationalists, was a victory not only for the Diaspora nationalists but, too, for the Arab opposition and for Iran.


A STRUCTURAL NO MAN’S LAND

The problem is structural. And I’m not talking only about the balance of power in the PersArab Gulf region.

When the Diaspora nationalists, together with the Christian Right (Crusader) and the Cynical-Oil-Grabbers (Bald Samson) eliminated Arab Iraq, they did away with an Arab power which had balanced Iran. No big loss here since the U.S. can perform that function and militarily deter the hell out of Iran.

The more important imbalance , however, was in the elimination of a secular Arab state. (I’ve gone over these arguments before. I don’t need to do it again.) The Saudi ruling elite (Note: I didn’t say Saudi Arabia) cannot (repeat after me: CANNOT) fill in the void, neither as balancer of Iranian military power. Nor, more importantly, as champion of an Arab identity, or Islamic, or secular. Why? Because:

– The Arab public (that public does matter if only because the Arab opposition provides it with an alternative perspective) knows beyond a doubt that the crew which now rules the Kingdom had colluded with the harmful idiots in the elimination of an Arab country which (at least symbolically) had been Sunni-ruled. (It matters little why that crew colluded with the harmful idiots.)

– The Arab public, too, knows beyond a doubt that the Saudi crew had left the ranks of the Arabs when it hoorayed (basically, that’s what it did) the harmful idiots’ last-gasp armed offenses (via Israel) to coax the Arab nation into submission to their “American” will and that of the Diaspora nationalists A.K.A. Israel - -when:


i. The Saudi ruling crew had accepted that Israel bomb the defenseless civilians in south Lebanon in 2006, murdering a couple hundred children (and with cold blood slaughtering over a thousand defenseless civilians) while the September 11 Queen, one of the crew’s allies, clueless if ever I’ve seen any, dared lecture the Arab nation about the “New Middle East” being remade (only in her brain) with the blood and the charred bodies not of her children – and

ii. When recently the crew had accepted that Israel do the same to the Palestinian civilians and their children in Gaza. (It matters not that Iran supported Hamas. Killing civilians only meant that the Saudi ruling elite had been successfully placated as aider an abettor to murdering Arab civilians).

iii. All of this taking place at a time when all know, or should know, that the modern Arab identity is as much defined by the Palestinian Nakbah – by the loss of Palestine – as it is by language, literature, common ancestry, religion and culture.

THE REGIONAL POLITICAL BATTLEFIELD

We know that the Saudi ruling elite (the crew) caters to every whim of each and every administration. It catered to the harmful idiots in the elimination of Arab Iraq. Maybe its excuse then was that the Diaspora nationalists, who inspired the Bush harmful idiots and had taken over the Pentagon, would act on their threat to dismantle Saudi Arabia.

But now that Nayef has reined in the bin Laden network in the Kingdom – he really has, and I hope I don’t eat my words too soon – why is the Saudi ruling elite tying its hopes on the adoption by new the administration, Mr. Obama’s, of a Saudi option that is so hazy, so uncertain, so full with traps (see below), that it seems as if it couldn’t exist but in the mind of desperate men on the verge of a nervous breakdown – the Saudi ruling elite? Especially that the Obama administration is as Diaspora-oriented as the one that preceded it? And therefore is unlikely to adopt a Saudi option/plan if it weren’t approved by Israel via the Diaspora nationalists.

In other words, the idiots-reluctant can no longer practice the type of blackmail the harmful idiots once could against the Saudi ruling elite - to dismantle the Kingdom. Iraq has humbled them, what with national bankruptcy and doubtful benefits in oil or bases. Yet the Saudi ruling elite continues to bark up the wrong tree. It refuses to conclude that its efforts to capture the attention, independent of the Diaspora nationalists, of the Obama Administration are to naught, and Mr. Freeman’s withdrawal of his nomination proves it. Logically, one would think that this elite would now change course: cease trying to persuade this or that administration (unavoidably full of Diaspora nationalists) to adopt its point of view and instead force the issue with its protector. To force the issue, the Saudi ruling elite would have to use the region where Saudi Arabia is located as a political battlefield, not between it and Syria and Iran, but between it and Israel. And not so much to influence Israel – but to force the issue of Saudi Arabia’s place and status in Washington, D.C. – the capital of its protector. (The Diaspora nationalists need not worry: it doesn’t seem that this elite is capable of this feat .)

Seemingly simple: the Saudi ruling elite has the ability to meet the Diaspora nationalists on the political battlefield in the region, so to speak. As a result of its ability to maneuver there it should be able to change its status as beggar in Washington, D.C., having to go through the Diaspora nationalists for everything. But that elite is proving incapable of pursuing the political battlefield option in the region. Why? I think that the Saudi ruling elite is stuck with such a stiff Saudi royal structure (current King, Crown Prince, and Allegiance Council) where the smart part of the elite knows it would hit a wall if it were to present the following proposal:

To do away with the current ruling crew, which is open to blackmail, and install a King who is not, and who is of Faisal’s caliber. (I’m not talking necessarily procreation-wise.) That King and his team should be able to chart for the Kingdom an exclusively Arab course, supporting the Palestinians, the Lebanese, the Syrians, the Sudanese – and all fellow Arabs – and using these as bridge to Iran in a series of confidence-building steps. The Arab nation needs an Arab Saudi Arabia, badly. And Saudi Arabia needs its Arab nation. Enough with begging; enough with the stupid so-called Arab initiative. The Israelis treated that initiative as one would toilet paper.

An Arab Saudi Arabia playing the regional field (as Arab not as a frustrated power scared of its own shadow and allied to the equally scared Kuwait and Jordan, and to the ineffectual Egypt) , not a desperate Saudi Arabia, would be useful even to the Americans. From there – from the region – the Arab Saudis can change the dynamics in Washington, D.C.

But seriously, what are the chances? Not that good if my sense about the movements and statements of Turki al-Faisal is correct. At any rate, the Saudis should better be moving fast. As common sense dictates, this country should be going through a thorough re-assessment of its defense and security alliances, with the Iraq and Afghanistan fiascos and the resulting national bankruptcy in mind. There likely should be a return to the Saddam Hussein prototype where that can be found -–to achieve goals without footing the bill in money and American lives.

I watch Turki al-Faisal jump up-and-down, issuing not-so-veiled threats which are obviously borne out of desperation. I know he’s got nowhere to go (and the Diaspora nationalists within the Obama Administration likely know it, too) since he is facing such a stiff royal succession and bureaucratic and extended family structure that is unlikely to show flexibility any time soon. And he knows it, too. So he sways between threatening the political battlefield option (see above) and the working-on-the-inside option – to persuade the Obama Administration to adopt what I would call the “Saudi option.” But that option (see below) is so ill-defined and so fraught with traps even for the United States that, in the end, it doesn’t amount to much. To reiterate: the elite Turki al-Faisal represents therefore ends up swaying between a battlefield option that their own system of government would not allow and an ill-defined Saudi option marketed to the Obama Administration as a way of begging for a Saudi role in Washington, D.C.

THE SAUDI OPTION

Though ill-defined, here’s a rough outline of what I think is perceived as the Saudi option, together with the risks it carries:

1. At a time when we have no assurance whatsoever that Israel would withdraw from all of what’s left of Historic Palestine (the West Bank and Gaza) and the Arab Joulan.

2. If anything: all indication is that Israel will NOT.

3. Knowing that Palestine was, is, and remains one of the essential backbones of Arab solidarity and identity, certainly at the level of the public and non-ruling alternative elite.

4. Knowing that there no longer is a substantial Arab power that is not allied to Iran, yet Palestine-oriented, as had been Arab Iraq, to pull the Arab nation behind it.

5. knowing that the Turkey-Barazani route (Turkey to appeal to the Arab Sunni, especially inside Iraq; and Barazani to threaten the Iraqi Shia state with yet more turmoil should it not cater to the idiots-reluctant’s Sunni Arab assets) is a non-starter since:

(a) for one, Barazani and Turkey (structurally) hate each other’s guts and any strengthening of Barazani will happen at Turkey’s expense and should threaten its ethnic stability;

(b) for another, Turkey will have to do more for Palestine than offended;

(c) for a third, neither Turkey nor a majority of Barazani’s fiefdom are Arabic-speaking – not the most important factor ;

(d) for a fourth, the Arab nation’s elite has serious doubts about whether Turkey isn’t in fact still allied to Israel (at the security-defense level), good acting by its leaders notwithstanding;

(e) for a fifth, that public and its alternative elite know that Barazani is Israeli to the bone. (On his recent visit to Kuwait, he lost it when Arab reporters zeroed in on his intimate relationship with Israel).

6. Knowing that Arab Syria, if it leaves dependable Iran and Russia, who both need it, to the camp of Saudi Arabia and adopt the ill-defined Saudi option:
(
a) would face a fate (at a minimum) of total and abject irrelevance as the Egyptian ruling elite had after Camp David – and still does – but possibly a deadly fate. (Egypt is much easier to govern than Syria).

(b) In the absence of a structural framework (e.g., an Arab common market), there’s no assurance whatsoever that Gulf oil money (and not broken promises) would flow to Syria.

(c) Arab Syria, with a Sunni majority, cannot afford to leave the Palestinians behind. (Asad recently called on them to coordinate with Syria on peace negotiations, though Syria knows that Abbas/Fayyad should love to leave Syria behind, but only if both would want to risk assassination by Arab nationalists/or/Islamists who would revive at the cry of the umma consensus at the first Israeli massacre of children on the West Bank, especially if the idiot-reluctant money dries up.) Hamas is Syria’s leverage against a separate peace agreement.

(d) Arab Syria knows that the only way to actually reclaim the Arab Joulan and what’s left over from Historic Palestine is by balancing Israeli power, an absolute must.

7. Knowing that the financial meltdown and the unpredictability of results of a war with Iran have (and increasingly will) prevent the Diaspora’s idiots-reluctant from waging war on the Islamic Republic, with the possibility that social turmoil in the land of the idiots-reluctant might just force yet more withdrawal of troops even from Afghanistan. (Everyone is running scared about their livelihood; people are working practically only to fund their health insurance premiums. People cannot afford even the deductible on their insurance and are delaying seeing a physician. I never ever thought this could happen in the United States. It seems as if all have a collective memory of the Great Depression, albeit not having themselves lived through it. From affluence to the bread line? Strange and scary. The fear by all who don’t have a government job runs very deep. If this continues long enough, there will be a need to retrench yet further militarily.)

8. Knowing that in these scary times, which the Saudis don’t have if only because they have a tighter family, clan, and tribal structure – that the entire Obama Administration would be focused on the economic disaster and possible repeat of a Great Depression, and not on the Middle East – that in those times, the Diaspora nationalists can run free with American foreign policy towards the Arab nation until such time when the defense/intelligence/foreign policy establishment had re-assessed its world priorities .It’ll be years.

Meanwhile:

All signs point to the Saudi ruling elite adopting delay tactics, playing for time, pursuing a tract seemingly (and only seemingly) in-between the regional battlefield option (e.g., King Abdallah’s statements at the Kuwait Summit and opening to Syria) and the Saudi option -- the latter running quite parallel to the Obama Administration/A.K.A./Diaspora nationalists’ tract (e.g., to put to use Turkey and Barazani.)

The question: aware as it certainly should be that the Axis of Conquest and New Colonialism is on a course of retreat and relative disarray, and that its opening to forces allied to Iran (e.g., U.K. and Hezbollah) is very likely tactical, to play for time until the financical meltdown is cleared -- will Iran be able to consolidate any of its gains before the Axis revives -- especially in Iraq?

Most importantly: Will Iran be able, or want to, extend a credible bridge, independently and through Arab Syria, to the Iraqi Arab Sunni, enough to dislodge Saudi and idiots-reluctant money? Can it? What would be the basis of agreement? Aware that this community, which the harmful idiots and the Israelis (via the Diaspora nationalists mostly, but somewhat directly, too), had conquered is key to opening the Saudi-influenced part of the Arab nation wide open to Iran? Can the Iraqi experience for Iran be less restrictive than the Lebanese?

OUT OF IRAQ

r o u g h firs t d r a ft

Defeat: frustration by nullification or by prevention of success. Webster’s


A friend commented that the last post was incomplete in that it didn’t account for all scenarios in Iraq.

Grant it. But the last post wasn’t meant to account for all scenarios. It was meant to refute the demagoguery ( re. false claims) to keep us in Iraq at tens of billion in cost per year.

I can’t conceive of a realistic scenario in Iraq that would result in genocide.

Here’s a variation on an exit scenario which seems to be the harmful idiots’ favorite plan, now adopted by the idiots-reluctant. Please forgive the repeated regressions. These are necessary if only to portray how bleak things look to me: Crusader, Bald Samson, and their Diaspora nationalists had bargained us into an unnecessary defeat from an unnecessary war based on foolish “theories.” Along the way, they bankrupted us, not realizing that the federal government they detest (the redoubt of the darker masses) is the same government they want to wage their stupid endless and harmful (even to us) wars.

THE HARMFUL IDIOTS’ SCENARIO

Masoud Barazani is a favorite guest in Kuwait, which is a base for the harmful idiots -- and from where these had sprung onto us and the region all the trouble we (and the people of the region, especially Iraq) are experiencing -- including our (in effect) defeat.

(I had warned in one of the earliest posts, pre-invasion, that unless the idiots can commit one million troops to the region to stay for generations -- that the U.S. should not invade. Otherwise it’d be defeat. Crusader and the Federal Reserve (under Mr. Greenspan) have so bankrupted us that Mr. Obama’s choices are bound to diminish week-after-week, until the economy and the financial world had stabilized, which isn’t in sight yet. As his choices diminish, Mr. Obama should become convinced -- and hopefully he would -- that saving the country and the federal government financially should be his only priority -- not Iraq and not Afghanistan.)

(I have this creeping suspicion that Crusader’s team and Mr. Greenspan were engaged in a coordinated “bring-down-the-temple” policy. The idea would’ve been to suck out China’s surplus to prevent it from becoming a super-power. As a side-benefit: to bankrupt the federal government so that the darker ones are prevented from enacting such social policies as national health insurance.)

Never forget it: the harmful idiots are forever miscalculating. They’re backed by a money-printing machine so they have no incentive to shed their habits, to learn, and to reboot their mind set. The latter is programmed in good part by nationalists of the Diaspora (sometimes right-wing, sometime liberal -- but forever Israel-centric) and by their inclusion of their beloved, Israel, in their worldwide chain of strategic alliances. I don’t see that ending any time soon. Frankly: I don’t care if it ends or not. I’m beyond this now; as is the country.

So they, idiots of harm and idiots of reluctance and their lapdog, Kuwait’s intelligence service, have been paying off Masoud Barazani. (He all but admitted that much in a recent visit to Kuwait.) But why?

The harmful idiots (and now the idiots-reluctant) want Mr. Barazani to protect the idiots’ Arab Sunni assets in Iraq, especially that our bankruptcy may force us to get the hell out -- in full. These assets live precariously, having shed their once-effective insurgency. That insurgency had put them on the map in Iraq and in the region and had set them in a good position to bargain with the Shia and Iran.

Had they continued on with their insurgency, these Arab Sunni would’ve helped even Baathist Syria bargain better (or bargain at all) for them with Iran. But they made the lazy mistake of accepting idiot and Saudi money. The end result: We leave and many of the “leaders” of the Arab Sunni will leave with us, to the Gulf countries, to Barazani’s fiefdom, and to San Diego. Thus, the idiots want Barazani to threaten the Shia state should this one go Iranian all the way after they order total withdrawal. They want Barazani to, in effect, bargain for the Arab Sunni with the Shia state and with Iran.

(It’s unclear whether Maliki’s recent overture to the “Baathists” had Iran’s approval. Likely not. Likely, the man was trying to please the idiots. If no Iranian approval, then expect a huge exodus of Arab Sunni “leaders” and lesser Baathists from Iraq if U.S. troops leave. San Diego, where the Iraqi-American community has been heading for years, leaving balmy Detroit, will host so many of these -- after a transition stop in places like Jordan, Barazani’s fiefdom, and the U.A.E. Not to mince words: defeats are defeats. Without one million troops to stay for generations, we can’t win in Iraq even if we wanted to. It’s over. The problem for Iran will be Syria which likely cannot bear the -- in effect -- de-Arabization of Iraq. But here, Syria may be stuck with Iran since the Israelis are unlikely to pull out in full of ALL pre-1967 Palestine and the Joulan. Not to mention the Hariri tribunal, especially that the recent international warrant on Sudan’s president likely should convince the Syrian leadership that the West (and their Saudi lapdog) will hang it (as it did Saddam Hussein) the moment it could -- that the current opening to it is a tactical measure, no more, until the West’s bankruptcy is reined in. And the Saudis will not be able to help since all they’re able to do is pump money here and there. They have no troops. Truly: they’re useless. Ditto for the Egyptians. Ditto for the Europeans.)


(There may be enough for Syria to be angry with Mr. Putin’s team for not vetoing the Hariri tribunal at the U.N. Security Council; but the benefits from Russia and Iran likely outweigh the certain-to-come treachery by the (terrifically) Israel-centric defeated harmful idiots and their European lapdogs. The question: will Iran and Russia coordinate? How well? And will Iran cut Syria a slack in Iraq by, in part, giving Muqtada as-Sadr a role in Iraqi politics?)

Barazani is happy to accept the money -- Kuwait’s and ours. But this stratagem by the harmful idiots may at best be ineffective and, at worse, lead to an intra-Kurdish civil war.

Remember Talabani? His fiefdom abuts Iran. So he has to be careful and continue on in his alliance with Iran’s people in Iraq -- and with Iran. Talabani is the best thermometer of opportunism in the region, maybe even the world. He knows the harmful idiots are finished in Iraq. Hence his warm (very warm, as a doormat) welcome of Mr. Rafsanjani on the latter’s recent visit to Iraq. I forgot how he described the visit. (I didn’t write it down.) But I swear he described it as something akin to a “blessing.”

Tat by the harmful idiots in playing Barazani’s card; tit by Iran in igniting an intra-Kurdish civil war.

GENOCIDE. NOT. ONLY SCARE TACTICS

first draft

d e f i n i t i o n

“Genocide: the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political or cultural group." Webster’s.

My radio is almost always on classical music. Yesterday morning, however, I ventured into NPR News. I heard this guy talk about genocide in Iraq, should the U.S. withdraw. Incredulously, he said (or feigned?), even liberal audiences in California were prepared to accept the (alleged) genocide (he claims will take place) in Iraq as price for withdrawal. Can you believe it, he seemed to be telling us: left-liberals willing to accept genocide just to save money! The guy had, it seems, just written a book.

I’m getting too old for this. But here it is:

1. THIS BLOG WOULD’VE BEEN AMONG TO FIRST TO SOUND THE ALARM

Background: Touting my own horn, this newsletter was first to warn about so many a danger about Iraq and the repercussions of its invasion. For instance, this newsletter had warned that the printing of money to invade translated into money in the pockets of rivals, making the oil grab that much more difficult. This newsletter had warned that an American soldier cost in the hundreds of thousand of dollars-- way before the Congressional Budget Office or the GAO or anyone else had scientifically assessed the hundreds of thousand in cost. Based on what I had seen in Lebanon, this newsletter had warned that, in contrast, a resistance fighter cost only a couple of hundred dollars. Who do you think would win THAT war? I had asked in this newsletter before anyone else had.

2. Having been attuned to so many aspects of the harmful idiots’ Iraq Project (the oil grab they called war), I would’ve been among the first to warn about a genocide should the idiots-reluctant order a withdrawal. Let me put it more clearly and emphatically: Should the idiots-reluctant order a full withdrawal from Iraq, to re-arrange our bankrupt house, there will be NO genocide in Iraq. I’ll explain later.

3. FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES/FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS -- AND THE BOOKS THEY HELP PUBLISH

I don’t know who the guy on NPR was; I don’t care to know. Books are published many times via a network that pre-purchases thousands of copies of that book, assuring the publisher of a profit margin. Groups on the pay of foreign countries’s intelligence services and central banks know how to put a book on the best seller list of even national newspapers. So publishing a book is no assurance of anything, expertise or other. Certainly: the publication of a book doesn’t mean in any way that the author has America’s best interest in mind or even the interest of the cultural group allegedly exposed to genocide. More likely than not, in this instance, even without knowing his name, the guest on NPR has Israel’s and possibly Saudi Arabia’s interest in mind -- the countries (along with Jordan) that most want the U.S. to stay in Iraq.

4. A TRIP WIRE WOULD SAVE TENS OF BILLION OF DOLLARS

As I explained earlier in this newsletter, the idiots-reluctant can erect a trip wire in Kuwait. That should do it, and should save us tens of billions of dollars yearly. No need to be spending money we don’t have on basing fighting troops in Iraq to prevent a said genocide that’s the product of the imagination (and propaganda and scare tactic machines) of self-interested Israelis who don’t want to withdraw from Palestinian and Syrian lands, and Saudi rulers who are scared of their own shadow when it comes to political change or facing-off with Diaspora nationalists. Or even self-styled right-wing theoreticians of defense who want to have endless wars to have secure cushy employment where a soldier would cost in the hundreds of thousand of dollars.

5. FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES ARE ACTIVE IN TRYING TO INFLUENCE IDIOT-RELUCTANT ELITE (“PUBLIC) OPINION

For instance, one e-publication I check periodically, a free-for-all publication, had been used cunningly by Syria. A man who edits a Syrian newspaper (almost always intelligence) would write with seeming common-sense about Iraq. (The U.S. Department of State advertises for recruits in that e-publication.) Recently, Israel has gotten onto the act and has unleashed one of its Arab minions to write scare tactics’ articles about the repercussions of withdrawal -- inciting us to beware of Iran and Syria. (Ha!) I cite this in order to highlight the fact that many among those who are loudest in this debate about withdrawal do not represent our national interest. I do. If only because my 401-K is now akin to a 101-K thanks to the Israel-inspired (or Diaspora-hoorayed) invasion of Iraq. (It matters little who used the other: Crusader and Bald Samson using the Diaspora or the Diaspora using Crusader and Bald Samson.) My duties, rights and privileges are here. I am NOT connected to any intelligence service. I live in Fortress Washington D.C., with a moat that is chock full of police organizations suffocating -- but protecting -- me. (Please refer to www.HarryWessel.com)

And I don’t care about ever returning to Lebanon. (I haven’t been there in around six years.) Or about any faction in Lebanon -- though, generally, I favor the non-corrupt across the Arab nation, here, and in the rest of the world.

6. THE ARAB SUNNI OR IRAQ WILL MAKE UP WITH IRAN

Should the idiots-reluctant order a withdrawal, the Arab Sunni of Iraq would converge on Iran directly, or on Syria to get to Iran. They’ll be no genocide of the Sunni. That’s now passe. If you remember: going sectarian was a stratagem of the Baath at first. The Shia took a relatively long time to retaliate. But the Baath is effectively finished. It’s now the Sahwas, and these are on the payroll of the Shia state -- mostly. (I’m not sure about how many still are on the payroll of the bankrupt state -- us.) Will there be sectarian killings in Iraq, post withdrawal? Some such killings are unavoidable; but it’s happening now anyway, with 140,000 US troops in Iraq. (Consider the repeated suicide bombing of Shia pilgrims.) Will there be “the deliberate and systematic destruction of a ...group [the Arab Sunni}?” Absolutely not. Even the Christians of Lebanon, upon conquest by Syria, were not subjected to genocide. Additionally, after it kicked Israel’s ass out of South Lebanon, Hezbollah, which coordinated closely with Iran and SYyria, entered that region and didn’t fire a single shot at a Christian! So Iran knows how to do it -- how not to alienate the entire Sunni world.

7. THE PLAY BOOK FOR THE IRAQI ARAB SUNNI

If anything, the Arab Sunni of Iraq will take a lesson out of the play book of the Lebanese Christians. These, after being dropped flat on their ass by the forever mis-calculating harmful idiots and the idiots-reluctant -- and their cherished Israel -- did an amazing volte face. Two-third of them, just about, hugged Syria and Iran and made up with them. If you think the Arab Sunni of Iraq hate Iran so much, and will forever hate it -- think again. As the Lebanese Christians of my generation will tell you: we grew up so scared of the Syrians. And now? Michel Aoun headed to Aleppo to turn it into the New Jerusalem for Lebanon’s Christians -- then to Tehran where Iran crowned him leader of its own Christians, including the Armenians. (My late mother used to be a teacher at a Catholic school run by nuns in south Lebanon. Most of these nuns had come from Aleppo. So there must be a sizeable Christian community in that city.) The Arab Sunni of Iraq will make up with Iran and they will be spending their summer vacation in Iran’s gorgeous mountains.

8. THE KURDS: GENOCIDE ANYONE?

As I had told you in an earlier post: Talabani’s fiefdom abuts Iran’s border. So he will always be attuned to Iran’s interests. (Consider the zealous welcome he gave Rafsanjani on Rafsanjani’s recent three-day visit to Iraq.) So half of the Kurds will not be genocide-d against. Does Barazani want to butt head with Iran. Can’t do -- he will need to go through Talabani’s lines, mostly. He’s welcome to butt head with Turkey, which abuts his fiefdom. No genocide there -- just two ethnic brands of nationalism going at each other. And both will have to soften their nationalism. Turkey’s response to Barazani, if he barks, would have to be muted so not alienate the Turkish Kurds. Here, if I were Barazani, I’d try not to bark too loud lest I end up disturbing the benefits that have piledd up to Kurdish Iraq from the years of starvation and blockade to which the idiots and their European poodles (now more poodle-ish than ever, the harmful idiots having wiped them out financially) had subjected Arab Iraq.

One scenario is possible: that’s of the Shia state going after the Kurds and re-claiming Kirkuk in full. Genocide? The Kurds are too strong and Talabani way opportunistic (and flexible) to allow it. More importantly, Talabani will need to keep Barazani realistic. So: Arab-Kurdish turbulence: yes, quite likely, and possibly war. But no genocide. A Kurdish civil war? Yes, likely. But it’d be a war within the same group -- no genocide there.

9. SCARE TACTICS, NO MORE

That’s it. So cut the Israeli-Saudi bullshit parading as objective analysis. A trip-wire will do. To the Israelis: Love your brothers and sisters, the Palestinians. To the Saudis: Change that ruling crew and get someone of King Faisal’s caliber on that throne –--and have him visit Tehran and build a summer palace there.

BRIDGE TO NOWHERE

first draft

f i c t i o n a l i z e d

THE DILEMMA

After a day burning at the beach, I was eager to sit outdoors, in the shade, with a tea. But the café was full. So many French, Italian, and British tourists. (Where were the Germans?) I finally found a bench. Right in front of me, however, were two Arab men. I could tell from their accent what region they came from. Now I had a dilemma. I didn’t want to listen in on their conversation, which I could hear abundantly well; they were talking politics. But then the bench was too precious to abandon, and hordes of tourists were searching about for a table or even a chair. The problem: I didn’t care about introducing myself. In the end, weighing the options, I decided that my priority was to avoid snooping in on them, albeit involuntarily. But not to lose the bench. So I had to introduce myself. And I did. I told them that I was doing that so that they’d know a fellow Arab could hear them talk.

Instead of thanking me and turning to other topics, they reeled me in with an overflow of welcoming comments and hospitality. They were both men of journalism. And both, too, asked whether I was the same Tony Khater of SaudiPolitics. I was and felt famous for a split-second, but with the utmost reluctance.

ORDERS COME FROM THE WHITE HOUSE

“We look for your analysis all the time.”

“And?”

“You understand: few at the newspaper are competent in English. So we have our translation and research department give us the highlights. Your analysis is so different and because it’s different we find it insightful. But the powers-that-be don’t care much about you.”

“If it’s any consolation, the powers-that-be here likely don’t care much about me either. They want someone to fall in line uncritically first for their aggression on Arab Iraq and later to help them mobilize the Arab public against Iran. Their stupidity knows no end.”

“Are you talking about the CIA?”

“The CIA? Why is it you guys are so consumed with the CIA? Decision-making in the U.S. is hardly the purview of the CIA. It comes from above, from the White House itself. It’s not like in Arab countries where the top is into pretending to be the falcon of Arabism and Islam while his intelligence service is wheeling-and-dealing away any national pride left in the Arabs. True, there are times where a general might go public on an issue so as to torpedo a President’s policy as we may or may not be witnessing currently with Mullen’s announcement about Iran possessing the capability to manufacture a weapon. But, generally, the President orders and the CIA, the Pentagon, and others execute the orders.”

“So when they torture at Abu Ghraib or when they do renditions-for-torture -- it’s not the CIA or the Pentagon?”

“The CIA executes the orders of the White House. When and if it tortures, or renders-for-torture -- it’s the White House which has given the orders. The CIA wouldn’t even dare be involved in anything that smacks of torture without orders from the White House.”

“So that exculpates them?”

“That’s a different subject altogether. I’m not saying it does. I’m not approaching the issue morally. September 11 happened during the watch of a White House so influenced by Diaspora right-wing nationalists who think of Arabs in two ways and two ways only: friendly Arabs, and that means those Arabs who are willing–some even eager– to accept and adopt an Israeli perspective; and hostile Arabs, and these are the ones who should be killed or tortured -- then killed. Nothing in-between. The Arabs aren’t allowed to have an opposition in politics, let alone one that wins elections -- as it once had in Algeria and in Palestine.”

“And the White House, now?”

“Liberal Diaspora nationalists. These come in when torture and killing have failed as policy and they try a softer but more cunning approach to reach full domination along with their Israel of the Arab nation.”

THE SAUDI RULING ELITE ALLIED TO THE DIASPORA NATIONALISTS

“Do you really believe the Saudis are allied to the Israel lobby?”

“Yes, I do. Why is it that people find that incredulous? Three senior Saudi princes separately had once made incredible overtures to Israel and/or to the Diaspora, so convinced they were that the Diaspora can make them kings -- ”

“Names -- ”

“You’d have to ask your translation and research department to find the names in the blog.”

“Fair enough. So the idea as we understand it is to accept a strategic alliance with Israel to balance Iranian power?”

“No one could be that clueless to really believe that Israel can balance Iranian power. Just like no one is going to engage in all-out wars, nuclear or otherwise. Iran and all-out war are fear tactics meant to mobilize the public and neutralize the alternative elite. It’s all about attrition and tiring out your foe -- from now ‘til eternity. The royal elite in Saudi Arabia is plainly scared of the Diaspora nationalists in American politics. They’re paying them protection money to neutralize them as a force against the royal system of government in Saudi Arabia. If there’s a strategic alliance, it’s between the Saudi ruling elite and the Diaspora nationalists. It’s certainly NOT between the Arab Saudis and Israel. Far from it. Nor can it be to balance Iranian power. Israel is incapable of doing that. It can’t even manage its relations with the Palestinians whose lands it occupies, let alone extend across hundreds of miles of land where people who hate it live -- to reach Iran, or reach it by air which would be next-to-useless and expose it to retaliation by Hezbollah and Hamas.”

“We believe you. You’re a realist. But you know we’d never say it.”

“And I fully understand your hesitation.”

THE BRIDGE TO NOWHERE

“One colleague once said that you’re the bridge between us and the ones you call harmful idiots.”

“You’re not up-to-date. The ones in power now are the idiots-reluctant. They’re as endemically and intrinsically anti-Arab and Diaspora-oriented as the ones who preceded them. Gone for now are the harmful idiots.”

“But you’re the bridge, anyway.”

“I’m flattered, but I'm not a narcissist. I’m more of a monk who treasures his solitude and independence.”

“You see, that’s what I like. This multi-layered capability -- politics, psychology.”

“Seriously: I’m flattered. But the newsletter is an American effort, not an Arab. And not a bridge. And I’m not sure it’ll continue for too long.”

“Doesn’t mean you’re not the bridge.”

“Bridge between what land masses? You (and I don’t mean to offend you) and much of the ruling elite in most of the Arab countries are in bed with the idiots-reluctant. You obey them uncritically; you follow their orders and trust their idiotic judgement, however suicidal that jusgement is. So who am I being a bridge for or between?”

“We’re not as much in cahoots with the Americans as you think. We know they’re Israeli and, as you put it, Diaspora-oriented, to the bone. But they likely trust you way more than insignificant us. So you convey to them that they shouldn’t be that Israeli; and you remind us to bargain harder with them and not allow them to dictate to us.”

“That’s a pathetic bridge if I’ve seen any. But thanks for the vote of confidence, anyway.”


THE DIASPORA NATIONALISTS REPRESENT THE ARABS IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

“So who represent the Arab point of view in Washington, D.C.?”

“The Diaspora.”

“ No, serious.”

“I swear I am. September 11 has helped the Diaspora nationalists fuse Israel’s foreign policy with American foreign policy institutions -- total fusion; and they’ve co-opted the Arabs and Arab-Americans in Washington-D.C.”

“They’ve fused with the CIA?”

“Yes, including the CIA. I have no sources; only the ability to deduce. And the Saudi royals gave these Diaspora nationalists the carte blanche -- including by pumping money into the Diaspora organizations -- to represent the Arabs wholesale. No authentic ones are left to represent what you call the Arabs. Even at the level of the Palestinians, those representing Fateh (AKA Palestinian Authority) are likely so in bed with the Israelis since their leader, Mahmoud Abbas, acts as if Hamas is the enemy not those who occupy Palestinian land. These, truth be told, with their hundreds of checkpoints, keep him in power. So how could his people not be in bed with the Israelis? Whoever says he or she represents the so-called Arab point of view has been compromised, to use the language of intelligence. He or she is engaged in make-believe, a shyster, as smart-talking con-artist.”

“But there is an Arab point of view and there are Arabs. You have two here–and you, a third.”

“The Diaspora nationalists have succeeded beyond any imaginable level at monopolizing and co-opting the Arab point of view in Washington, D.C.; it's all in the blog.”

“We want details.”

“Your translation and research department isn’t doing a good job.”

“ We pay them well.”

“Most Arabs and Arab-Americans were recruited during the preparation for the assault on Arab Iraq. They wrote in support of the invasion, which freaked me out, but they did. Some were recruited by Saudi intelligence AKA harmful idiots, some by Kuwaiti intelligence AKA harmful idiots. The fusion between Israel and the idiots-reluctant (then harmful idiots) foreign policy institutions extended region-wide, across the Arab nation, reeling in any and all. The Iraq Project had so much money allotted to it that money was no issue and all were bought out. (The Iraq project had played a pivotal role in our bankruptcy; and to keep troops in Iraq and increase those in Afghanistan should send us tailspinning downward as public confidence in living and spending would further erode by these so-called wars and may not revive soon enough to dodge a depression. I for one have delayed buying a car. My sister, too. If one car goes, likely hers, then it’ll be the bus. My health insurance premium and that of my sister have gone through the roof. How can we live it up and revive the economy? And our example extends across the board for all Americans.) At any rate, all began to coordinate with the Diaspora nationalists in the assault on Arab Iraq and in the wider region. The idea was and still is to turn the Arab public against Iran and away from involvement with Israel and its policies vis-a-vis the Arab Palestinians and the Arab Syrians. Sophomoric and harmful , I know. But the very aggression on Arab Iraq was sophomoric and sadistic and suicidal! Which reflected in good part the persona of the Diaspora nationalists and the harmful idiots when it came to Arabs. If you want to cull how widespread the turn-the-Arabs-against-Iran effort is -- all you need do is consider the recent news that Fateh had dispatched aid to the Iranian opposition, the Mujahideen Khalq at Camp Ashraf in Iraq. This is Fateh lining up against Iran at a time when it had received next-to-nothing from the Israelis in land or water or prisoners. Shameful. So unabashedly sycophant-ish. They just want to pay salaries, that’s all, and going anti-Iran assures them of money for salaries. (Maybe and maybe not. COngress has to agree.) No one among the Arab public believes Iran is a threat. If it is a threat to the Gulf Arabs, then who the hell among the Arab public would volunteer over to the U.A.E. to fight for the islands, for instance --to protect affluent princes who refuse to field competent armies? If the U.A.E. was part of an Arab common market and benefits were flowing through that market to the poor Arabs in places like Egypt and Syria -- then, yes, the Arab public would report over to the U.A.E. or to Bahrain or to Kuwait to defend them. But not when these places are beholden to the Israelis directly and via the American protector, and in the absence of a common Arab market that systematically infuses trade and wealth into the poorer Arabs. Iran has a gem of a wedge issue here. Kudos to Iran.”

“You see: that’s why the powers-that-be aren’t crazy about you.”

“Not that I lose any sleep over it. But the powers-that-be who fund your newspaper --own itl really -- should wake up and come out of their cocoon of Uncle Tom-like blank stare where they had been sleeping with idiots who are harmful and with the Diaspora nationalists. You’ve tired me out.”

“Please don’t leave.”

“I have a principle: No handsome women, no staying anywhere.”

“You don’t mean this.”

“ I may not. But this does help me protect my independence and it saves on my energy level.”

“It’s so good to know you. We expect you to visit us at the newspaper when you’re in -----------”

“I will.”

“Do you mean it?”

“I do. Thank you.”